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Friday 30th of January 2015 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
I am looking forward to being the Speaker on Saturday 31st January @InterConnairobi
going to cover Oil Warfare Currency Puzzles Geopolitics Is #Africarising EAC Boko Haram #CharlieHebdo Kenya |
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#Mindspeak @YouTube Africa |
The Philosophy of #Mindspeak was informed by the Mevlana and an Inscription which is written as You enter the Mausoleum in Konya which reads
"Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshiper, lover of leaving. It doesn't matter. Ours is not a caravan of despair. come, even if you have broken your vows a thousand times. Come, yet again , come , come."
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Sic transit gloria mundi Africa |
Sic transit gloria mundi is a Latin phrase that means "Thus passes the glory of the world." It has been interpreted as "Worldly things are fleeting.
The phrase was used in the ritual of papal coronation ceremonies between 1409 (when it was used at the coronation of Alexander V)[1] and 1963. As the newly chosen pope proceeded from the sacristy of St. Peter's Basilica in his sedia gestatoria, the procession stopped three times. On each occasion a papal master of ceremonies would fall to his knees before the pope, holding a silver or brass reed, bearing a tow of smoldering flax. For three times in succession, as the cloth burned away, he would say in a loud and mournful voice, "Pater Sancte, sic transit gloria mundi!" ("Holy Father, so passes worldly glory!") These words, thus addressed to the pope, served as a reminder of the transitory nature of life and earthly honors. The stafflike instrument used in the aforementioned ceremony is known as a "sic transit gloria mundi", named for the master of ceremonies' words.[2][3][4] A form of the phrase appeared in Thomas à Kempis's 1418 work The Imitation of Christ: "O quam cito transit gloria mundi" ("How quickly the glory of the world passes away").[5][6]
Emily Dickinson used the line in a whimsical valentine written to William Howland in 1852 and subsequently published in the Springfield Daily Republican:[7]
Sic transit gloria mundi How doth the busy bee, Dum vivimus vivamus, I stay my enemy!
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.@BarackObama's Pivot to Iran Foreign Policy Law & Politics |
With President Barack Obama's welcome and warmly received trip to India this week, commentators have dusted off the well-worn platitudes associated with the administration's once-vaunted "pivot to Asia." The week's other events, however -- from the president's decision to cut his stay in Delhi short to attend King Abdullah's funeral in Riyadh to the chaos in Yemen, from ongoing nuclear diplomacy with Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to ensure his relationship with Obama will be seen as the most toxic in the history of Israel and the United States -- suggest this administration's foreign-policy legacy may ultimately center on a different "strategic rebalancing." This one will benefit, however, in ways once unimaginable in U.S. foreign-policy circles, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
If the president thinks a brief drop-by in Saudi Arabia is going to somehow offset the House of Saud's fury at an Iran deal, he's not paying attention.
What's more, the United States is now providing the air power that is enabling Iranian forces to gain and hold ground for their client, effectively putting a big chunk of Iraq even deeper in Iran's pocket. (It is an especially peculiar development of the past weeks that when America's historic allies, the Israelis, launched an attack that killed an Iranian general in Syria, they were in fact eliminating a member of a military organization that is currently fighting alongside, and in coordination with, the United States next door in Iraq.)
"It's not even close," he said, "Carter and Begin was bad. But this is worse." That seems about right to me. While Obama has done plenty to damage the relationship (and his staff hasn't helped with descriptions of the Israeli prime minister as "chickenshit"), the most recent downturn is all Bibi's fault (with a profoundly unconstructive assist from House Speaker John Boehner). Netanyahu's decision to accept Boehner's invitation to address the U.S. Congress on the dangers of the Iran nuclear deal is a case of sending the wrong man at the wrong time to give the wrong speech in the wrong place.
Conclusions
I think Havana was the Aperitif and the Tehran Rapprochement is real and the main course.
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28-OCT-2013 ::@BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The 2 Husseins Law & Politics |
THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran's Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran. The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi and otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein Obama] and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet Muhammed's revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of anthroponymy [personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably view this as very fortuitous.
I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei:
What's in a name?
A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich, all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.
Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests fully invested in the status quo. If the pax Americana in the Middle East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg, then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool. Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama's Iranian rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.1341 Dollar Index 94.56 Japan Yen 117.81 Swiss Franc 0.9200 Pound 1.5086 Aussie 0.7791 Aussie dollar barely made any recovery on Friday, after dropping nearly 2 percent to $0.7720 AUD=D4 on Thursday, a low unseen since July 2009 India Rupee 61.746 South Korea Won 1093.31 Brazil Real 2.6032 Egypt Pound 7.5895 South Africa Rand 11.5283
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@Diageo_News #Africa within the Earnings Release Africa |
"Our overall performance in Africa has improved, with net sales up 5%. We have begun to lap the excise duty change on Senator in Kenya in the half, performance in our Africa Regional Markets has improved as beer in Ghana and Cameroon is in good growth, we have delivered strong growth in spirits in Angola as a result of improved route to consumer and our performance in Nigeria improved. Nigeria remains a challenging market, though, as consumers continue to trade down into value beer. However, the successful launch of Orijin and the improved performance of Satzenbrau drove growth in beer despite softness in other brands and destocking. In South Africa Smirnoff 1818 and Johnnie Walker delivered very strong performances. Spirits in Africa were up 19% with double digit growth in every market, driven by both mainstream international spirits and our strong local spirits brands. Across Africa we have continued to build our route to consumer and invested in our brands, with marketing spend up 12%, driven by the global Guinness platform 'Made of More' and our latest execution 'Made of Black'. Reserve has gone from strength to strength with net sales up 25% and we have driven out costs from all of our markets. Operating margin however was down 26 basis points. Mix in South Africa and price and mix in East Africa drove margin improvement in these two markets, but margin declined in Nigeria and despite strong margin expansion in Ghana and Angola, net sales declines in other countries in Africa Regional Markets eroded margin for that market."
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Ebola outbreak: Virus mutating, scientists warn Africa |
Researchers at the Institut Pasteur in France, which first identified the outbreak last March, are investigating whether it could have become more contagious.
More than 22,000 people have been infected with Ebola and 8,795 have died in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.
Scientists are starting to analyse hundreds of blood samples from Ebola patients in Guinea.
They are tracking how the virus is changing and trying to establish whether it's able to jump more easily from person to person
"We know the virus is changing quite a lot," said human geneticist Dr Anavaj Sakuntabhai.
A virus can change itself to less deadly, but more contagious and that's something we are afraid of"
Dr Anavaj Sakuntabhai Geneticist "That's important for diagnosing (new cases) and for treatment. We need to know how the virus (is changing) to keep up with our enemy."
It's not unusual for viruses to change over a period time. Ebola is an RNA virus - like HIV and influenza - which have a high rate of mutation. That makes the virus more able to adapt and raises the potential for it to become more contagious.
"We've now seen several cases that don't have any symptoms at all, asymptomatic cases," said Anavaj Sakuntabhai.
"These people may be the people who can spread the virus better, but we still don't know that yet. A virus can change itself to less deadly, but more contagious and that's something we are afraid of."
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@_AfricanUnion May Appoint Mugabe as Next Chairman @AFP Reports Africa |
The African Union may appoint Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe as it's next chairman, Agence France-Presse reported, citing diplomats it didn't identify.
Mugabe is "widely expected" to succeed Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz at the continental bloc's two-day summit that begins in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on Friday, the news agency said.
The 90-year-old's appointment would send "mixed signals and an extremely awkward message on international levels on how the AU stands on principles of democracy and good governance," AFP quoted Jeggan Gey-Johnson, spokesman for pan-African civil-society group The AU We Want, as saying.
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@AU_PSD 14h14 hours ago Happening now: #24thAUSummit - 484th meeting of #AUPSC at level of HoSG Africa |
January 27, 2015 Index: Economic Freedom Expands in Many Parts of Sub-Saharan Africa http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/01/sub-saharan-africa#%2EVMiP_QWfFt8%2Elinkedin
Sub-Saharan Africa's overall level of economic freedom remains low, yet the region experienced the most widespread improvement over the last year, according to the 2015 Index of Economic Freedom, published by The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage Foundation.
Sub-Saharan Africa lacks a "free" economy, and is home to only one classified as "mostly free" (Mauritius). A majority of the region's economies are either "mostly unfree" or "repressed." But six of the world's 10 biggest score improvements (São Tomé and Príncipe, Democratic Republic of Congo, Togo, Senegal, Burundi and Zimbabwe) occurred there last year, and the region continues to move in the right direction.
Yet despite the "substantial growth momentum" evident in many economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, "the region as a whole continues to underperform in following through on policy changes that will help the emergence of a more dynamic private sector," the editors write.
Twenty-seven of Sub-Saharan Africa's 46 economies posted improved Index scores last year. São Tomé and Príncipe's 4.5-point gain (the world's biggest gain) moved it out of the "repressed" category to "mostly unfree", while the Democratic Republic of Congo's 4.4-point improvement lifted it out of the world's bottom 10 economies. Mauritius, despite a slight decline in its score, remains the region's leader, followed by Botswana, which lost 2.2 points, dropping it into the "moderately free" category.
Swaziland's 1.3-point loss caused it to slide into the "mostly unfree" category that prevails among the region's economies. Liberia and Sierra Leone, despite the challenges of Ebola, have moved up from the ranks of the "repressed" to "mostly unfree." Six others, including Angola, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau and Seychelles, have registered sustained growth in economic freedom over the past five years.
However, Sub-Saharan Africa has nine "repressed" economies, the highest of any region. "It remains to be seen whether the region's political leaders have the political will to undertake the fundamental economic reforms that are needed to translate narratives of 'Africa Rising' into reality," the Index editors write.
2015 Index of Economic Freedom http://www.heritage.org/index/
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.44% 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
50,945.56 -255.01 -0.50%
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 11.5293 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1
@metesohtaoglu  At least 44 dead, over 80 injured in attacks on #Egypt police HQ in #Sinai pic.twitter.com/rtkxRGdQIa
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.5894 http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +10.31% 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
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Staving Off Nigeria's Next Train Wreck Africa's biggest democracy is pushing ahead with its next election. Here's why that would be a mistake PRINCETON N. LYMAN Africa |
Nigeria is scheduled to hold elections in February 2015. They should be postponed.
The country is heading into these elections with insufficient preparation, extreme tensions, and wracked by Boko Haram, the brutal Islamist insurgency whose murders and kidnappings have shocked the world. Yet there is no national consensus in Nigeria on how to deal with this insurgency, and no one seems prepared to confront it as the national crisis it is.Yet there is no national consensus in Nigeria on how to deal with this insurgency, and no one seems prepared to confront it as the national crisis it is. Instead the matter has become deeply politicized, as competing regional factions accuse each other of active complicity with the terrorists.
Finally, the rapidly dropping price of oil -- which fuels political patronage, serves as the basis of the national budget, and drives foreign exchange earnings -- will intensify the competition for both power and access to that resource, while likely worsening poverty for the vast majority of Nigerians.
All this points to the likelihood of fraud, contention, and violence in the wake of the election no matter who wins. The country will not break apart, but large parts of it may become ungovernable, and the depredations of Boko Haram and perhaps other militias will increase. Nigeria's National Security Advisor Sambo Dasuki recently called for a postponement of the election in order to address some of these administrative problems.
But the political system in Nigeria today is dysfunctional, and this reality, combined with the breakdown of law and order in the northeast, is taking the country down. It is time for leaders from all walks of life to step forward and change this direction.
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Kenya: Counterterrorism Operations Undermine Rights No Justice for Security Force Abuses JANUARY 29, 2015 @HRW Kenyan Economy |
"Kenyan authorities need to find lawful ways to address the country's growing security problems," said Leslie Lefkow, deputy Africa director. "Instead, from Mandera to Mombasa, Kenyan forces use tactics that have resulted in abuses of thousands of people."
Rather than respond to criticisms of the security forces, Kenyan lawmakers passed legislation that further empower security forces and strengthen legislative controls over media, civil society, and other sources of independent criticism.
Conclusions
The Asymmetric Threat remains potent and real and I think the Government's response has been like using a Sledge Hammer to crack a Nut. And the Assassination Policy invites Escalation and my home Town Mombasa is bearing the brunt of the Blow-back with Tourism in serious trouble.
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31-DEC-2014 Tourism will need a calm 2015 for full recovery @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
The 'tourist economy' which is worth well north of a $1billion a year (which I am experiencing as I write this at the Swahili Beach Hotel in the South Coast - listening to the Indian Ocean breeze and anticipating my boat trip tomorrow to see the dolphins) is going to remain a drag on 2015 Gross Domestic Product.
There is no silver bullet. Once upon a time we used to count elephants on our road trips from Mombasa to Nairobi; this time we were counting foreign tourists and they were very thin on the ground.
We have a fabulous offering but it has been shot down in the insecurity crossfire. Israeli Prime Ministers would always talk of a "period of calm" before entering into any negotiations with the Palestinians. The tourism sector needs a 12 month period of calm before it can recover.
''Places that depend on tourism, for example, are particularly susceptible to perceived instability'' writes Nasim N. Taleb in the latest edition of foreign policy in a piece titled ''The Calm Before the Storm Why Volatility Signals Stability, and ?Vice Versa.'' The Key words are ''perceived instability.'' Its all about the perception. We live in an always on 24-hour world. I have yet to see the plan which bends the perception curve.
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East Africa commentary via @Diageo_News Half Year Earnings Release Kenyan Economy |
East Africa's performance, with volume and net sales up 7% and 11% respectively was driven by robust performances in both beer and spirits. Double digit net sales growth of both Tusker and Guinness for East Africa, along with value offerings Balozi in Kenya and Kibo Gold in Tanzania, more than offset the continued decline of Senator that resulted from excise duty changes in the comparable period and accounted for 5pps of net sales growth. Spirits net sales growth was driven by Kane Extra and Johnnie Walker, which benefitted from increased distribution and new 'Tavern Packs' which combine 20 cl pack sizes of Red Label with ginger beer and a cup and are targeted at premium pubs and mainstream outlets that previously did not stock the brand.
Conclusions
Bodes well for EABL's Earnings Release in February
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share closed the week 0.57 points better to close at 165.80. The All Share is +1.786% in January. The Nairobi NSE20 Index regained the 5,200 level to close 17.90 points better at 5,212.11. The NSE20 is +1.94% in January and this is the first time in the entire 36 month bull run that the NSE20 is outperforming the All Share and that speaks to the outperformance of previously bombed out stocks like Mumias Sugar which is +48.71% in January and Kenya Airways is +25.86% over the same period. Volume clocked 1.238b and this was busiest trading session of 2015 with yesterday the 2nd busiest trading session of the month. The Equity Market has posted a very creditable performance in January. Egypt leads, South Africa is ahead of Nairobi in January and this compares with the Nigeria All Share which is down more than 14% over the same period and the worst performing Index in the World in 2015.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom firmed 0.354% to close at 14.15 and was trading at 14.25 +1.06% at the Finale with 9.095m shares worth 128.938m shillings changing hands. Safaricom is +0.7117% in 2015 and 5.666% below a record closing high of 15.00 reached last year. My Price Target is 20.00 in 2015.
Kenya Airways rallied +2.816% to close at a Fresh 6 month High of 10.95 and was trading shares at 11.05 +3.76% at the finish and just off session Highs. Kenya Airways traded volume significantly higher than its Daily volume moving average with 882,200 shares changing hands. Kenya Airways has surged +25.86% in January as Management Moves and a worldwide airline stock rally combine to encourage Buyers.
.@KenyaAirways share price data here +25.86% 2015 http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=OA%3D%3D
Nation Media [which has been on the defensive of late] traded 6,900 shares all at 276.00 +2.22% and interestingly there were 10 Buyers for every Seller.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya Commercial Bank was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange and closed unchanged at 58.50 and traded 3.101m shares worth 181.658m. Kenya Commercial Bank is +2.631% in January and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a 40 versus 26 Ratio signalling good support 2.5% below a record Closing High.
.@KCBGroup share price data here +2.631% 2015 http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D
Standard Chartered firmed 0.58% to close at 341.00 and traded good sized volume of 154,600 shares worth 52.862m. Standard Chartered is +1.791% in January and has plenty of Price headroom.
Housing Finance which recently announced the Terms of its Rights issue [1 share for every 2 held at a Price of 30.00] followed on yesterdays 12.5% tumble with another 6.547% lurch lower to close at 39.25 and traded 238,200 shares worth 9.403m.
Centum eased 1.58% to close at 63.00 and traded 1.193m shares worth 74.208m. Centum is +3.27% in January and that follows on two consecutive triple digit percentage gains in 2013 and in 2014.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
EABL's majority shareholder Diageo released First Half Earnings and we learnt from the accompanying commentary;
''East Africa's performance, with volume and net sales up 7% and 11% respectively was driven by robust performances in both beer and spirits. Double digit net sales growth of both Tusker and Guinness for East Africa...''
This bodes well for EABL's Earnings Release next month. EABL firmed 0.3225% to close at 311.00 and was trading at 315.00 +1.61% at the Closing Bell. Trading was thin with 28,900 shares traded and 4 Buyers for every Seller signalling short term upside traction.
Mumias Sugar rallied +5.454% to close at 2.90 and was locked at limit up 3.00 +9.09% for most of the session. Mumias Sugar traded good volume of 9.094m shares. Mumias Sugar is the best performing share at the Securities in January and has rallied +48.71% in 2015.
Mumias Sugar share price data here +48.71% in 2015 http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mzg%3D
KenolKobil rallied +2.08% to close at 9.80 on heavy volume of 3.554m shares. KenolKobil has rallied +12.264% in January.
BAT traded 60,800 shares worth 54.72m all at 900.00 unchanged.
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