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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 11th of March 2015

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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A Short Trailer with @JMakamba ahead of #Mindspeak RICH TV

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

"Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the
road." -- Jack Kerouac, On the Road

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In his introduction to The Americans, Kerouac describes this photograph as "a long shot of night road arrowing forlorn into immensities and flat of impossible-to-believe America in New Mexico under the prisoner's moon."

"What is that feeling when you're driving away from people and they
recede on the plain till you see their specks dispersing? - it's the
too-huge world vaulting us, and it's good-bye. But we lean forward to
the next crazy venture beneath the skies." -- Jack Kerouac, On the Road

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"I saw that my life was a vast glowing empty page and I could do anything I wanted."-- Jack Kerouac

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated
warriors go to war first and then seek to win" -- Sun Tzu, The Art of

"All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack,
we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive;
when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when
far away, we must make him believe we are near." - Sun Tzu, The Art of

"Opportunities multiply as they are seized."-- Sun Tzu

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Greece threatens to unleash wave of migrants on the rest of Europe 'including Isis jihadists'
Law & Politics

Greece has threatened the rest of Europe with a "wave of economic
migrants" that could include Isis militants if the country is allowed
to go bust by international lenders.

In a shock escalation of the rhetoric surrounding bailout talks in
Brussels, the Greek defence minister Panos Kammenos vowed: "If they
strike us, we will strike them."

European creditors told Athens to stop "wasting time" putting forward
its proposals for economic reforms pledged by the new left-wing
Syriza-led coalition government.

If an agreement cannot be reached, the International Monetary Fund has
said it will discontinue payments on a £172 billion bailout, forcing
Greece to go bust and crash out of the eurozone.

 Mr Kammenos said: "If they deal a blow to Greece, then they should
know the the migrants will get papers to go to Berlin."

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Isis tricked victims into appearing calm with beheading rehearsals
Law & Politics

A former translator, "Saleh", said in an interview with Sky News that
he was employed by the group to convince foreign hostages they were
safe, before they were killed in videos featuring Mohammed Emwazi, the
26-year-old radical known as "Jihadi John".

Hostages such as the US journalist James Foley and the British aid
worker Alan Henning appeared unafraid when they read messages on
camera moments before they were murdered.

Speaking to Sky News from Turkey, Saleh said Emwazi ordered him to
reassure the captives. "He would say to me 'say to them, no problem,
only video, we don't kill you, we want from your government [to] stop
attacking Syria. We don't have any problem with you; you are only our

"So they don't worry. Always I say to them 'don't worry, doesn't
matter, nothing dangerous for you. But at the end I was sure [they
would die]."

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Kim Jong-un Feels Snubbed by Absence of Letter from Republicans via @BorowitzReport
Law & Politics

PYONGYANG (The Borowitz Report)--The North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un
said on Tuesday that he feels "snubbed" by the decision of forty-seven
Republican senators to write a letter to Iran but not to him, the
official North Korean news agency reported.

In an unusually forthcoming interview with the Korean Central News
Agency (K.C.N.A.), Kim said it was "hurtful" that the Republicans
would send a letter to one of the United States' most longstanding
enemies while "totally snubbing" another.

"Let's just call it what it is: they're playing favorites with
enemies," Kim said. "I try not to take things personally, but it's
hard to see them sending letters to Iran without feeling a little bit

Kim said that over the past two days he had his aides checking his
mailbox on an hourly basis in hopes of finding a letter from the
Republicans, but now he has "pretty much given up hope."

"Honestly, I thought I'd at least rate a text or something, but ... ,"
he said, his voice trailing off.

"I don't like to beat myself up, but part of me is like, 'What does
Iran have that I don't have?' " he said. "I don't know. Sometimes I
feel like, when you actually get nuclear weapons, people start taking
you for granted."

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0677 The euro bought $1.0682 and is down 4.5 percent this
month. The shared currency has weakened about 11.5 percent this year
Dollar Index 98.72
Japan Yen 121.42
Swiss Franc 0.9986
Pound 1.5079
Aussie 0.7606
India Rupee 62.815
South Korea Won 1128.53
Brazil Real 3.1158
Egypt Pound 7.6248
South Africa Rand 12.3695

On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar remains far from its highs in
the mid-1980s and early 2000s, but the pace of the rise over the past
half year is the second fastest in the last 40 years, noted David Woo


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29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
World Currencies

The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.

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12-JAN-2015 I think the Fed is just one headline economic print from raising interest rates.
World Currencies

A rate hike, even as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for
a renewed surge in the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher

- buy the dollar.

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History Suggests OPEC's Days Could Be Numbered

And OPEC? The oil producers' group was on full display during the twin
oil shocks of the 1970s, when oil prices spiked. But the entry of new
suppliers and squabbling between OPEC members eroded its influence
over the next two decades, according to the World Bank. "There's very
little evidence that OPEC has been effective as a cartel for some
time," said Michael Levi,
senior fellow for energy and the environment
at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Saudi Arabia, once in a while,
has stepped in to stabilize the market."

The World Bank reckons unconventional and higher-cost players such as
U.S. shale drillers and even biofuel producers may be the new swing
producers in the oil market.

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Africa's oil "sweet spots" still viable after price rout @Reuters

DAKAR (Reuters) - African oil explorers will keep drilling in select
locations such as onshore east Africa and less complex projects off
the West African coast even with oil at $60 a barrel, executives and
analysts told Reuters.

But they warned that African governments with reserves in less
attractive locations should revise terms now or forfeit the
investment, leaving the oil and gas underground.

"There are still some exciting areas in Africa like east Africa and in
particular the onshore areas," said Aidan Heavey, CEO of one of
Africa's biggest explorers Tullow Oil, referring to drilling projects
in Kenya and Uganda. "This is certainly not the end of African oil -
far from it."

Oil prices have collapsed from $115 a barrel in June, prompting oil
firms to slash hundreds of millions of dollars from exploration
budgets, hitting relatively expensive African projects hard. Tullow
has cut its budget from a peak target of $1 billion to around $200
million this year, mostly focused on Kenya, although it may double
from next year.

Stuart Lake, CEO of African Petroleum, which has licences offshore
Senegal and Ivory Coast in the West Africa Transform Margin, says the
firm has no plans to cancel projects in an area he called one of
Africa's "sweet spots".

"It's an area that is oil-rich with little gas and it's cheap to
drill," said Lake, pointing to two Cairn finds in Senegal. He said the
mothballing of projects further south had dragged down rig rates,
saying costs were now around $35-$50 million per well versus $200
million in Angola.

Low operating costs of around $10 a barrel for Ghana's Jubilee field
will mean cuts have a limited impact there, said Jacques Verreynne, an
economist at NKC Independent Economists.

"You need to be close to or at production and have visibility on cash
flow. That's critical right now," said Chris Bake, an executive at top
energy trader, Vitol [VITOLV.UL] which has a stake in a $7 billion
Ghana project.

Paul Eardley-Taylor of Standard Bank Oil and Gas said he expected
liquefied natural gas projects in Mozambique - home to an estimated
180 trillion cubic feet of gas, or enough to supply Germany, Britain,
France and Italy for 18 years - to go ahead.

"Mozambique achieved a lot over the last two months with the passing
of enabling legislation. Standard Bank is hopeful that a final
investment decision can be reached this year," Eardley-Taylor said.
The CEO of South African petrochemicals group Sasol David Constable
also said Mozambique remained a priority. "We want to stay warm other
there," he said.

Frontier projects are seen as most vulnerable to cuts such as offshore
Namibia and South Africa as well as Angola and Gabon where vast oil
reserves resembling Brazil's are thought to be trapped deep underwater
beneath a salt layer.

Oil-dependent countries with reserves that are costly to develop such
as Gabon and Angola should revise terms.

"If you want to get companies to start looking at licences again then
they have to be made more attractive. It's very simple supply and
demand," said Heavey. Mozambique has extended a bidding round by more
than three months.

Chevron to Accelerate Asset Sales to $15 Billion on Crude Slide


The U.S. Commercial Service, the export promotion arm of the
Department of Commerce, doubled its presence in Africa over the past
year to boost trade with some of the world's fastest growing


The agency opened offices in Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Tanzania
in the past 12 months and is planning its biggest-ever trade mission
to sub-Saharan Africa in September, Donald Nay, a regional senior
commercial officer, said in an e-mailed response to questions.

U.S. companies have faced increasing competition from China in Africa
over the past decade as the Asian nation targeted the continent for
oil and other mineral resources. Chinese trade with Africa amounted to
$174 billion in 2013, more than double that of the U.S., which was
Africa's biggest trading partner five years earlier.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.08% 2015 [has corrected 1,258
points and 2.358% off a record reached 6th March]


52,088.54 525.54 1.00%

The rand hit a session trough of 12.2700/dollar, its weakest level
since March 2002.


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Nigeria will enforce the repatriation of dollar-proceeds from exports and is planning sanctions against those not complying, Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele told Reuters on Tuesday.

Now, policy makers are looking at exporters to ensure hard currency
liquidity within Nigeria, pondering sanctions against exporters who
fail to repatriate proceeds and funnel them back into the official
market within the stipulated 90-day limit, Emefiele said.

"If you refuse to sell your export proceeds that you repatriate in the
foreign exchange market ... we will ban them from accessing foreign
exchange in the Nigerian foreign exchange market," Emefiele told
Reuters in an interview.

"Another thing we will do is that we will ask the banks not to loan
money to them (exporters who don't repatriate hard cash on time)," he
said, saying the measure would come into effect soon, but declining to
give a date.

Emefiele estimated that some $3-4 billion of proceeds due to be
repatriated were outstanding, of which 40 percent would come from oil

"We are saying ... don't put your foreign exchange in the hands of
people who want to carry cash and take it abroad," he said. "Use it to

"(The window) is not closed. It is crushed and destroyed for life,"
said Emefiele. "Nothing is going to be opened again. We are not going
to go back to a subsidized regime."

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.70% 2015


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Equity Group reports FY PAT +27.768% 2014 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           50.50
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        186,990,239,510
EPS:             4.63
PE:                 10.907

Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2014 versus 31st December 2013

Full Year Group Assets 344.571649b versus 277.728818b +24.067%
Full Year Loans and Advances 214.170424b versus 171.363429b +24.9802%
Full Year Total Interest Income 35.366888b versus 31.889624b
Full Year Total Interest Expenses 6.192251b versus 5.399033b
Full Year net Interest Income 29.174637b versus 26.490591b
Full Year Total Non-Interest Income 18.474042b versus 15.370698b
Full Year Total operating Income 47.648679b versus 41.861289b
Full Year Loan Loss Provision 1.590863b versus 2.401942b
Full Year Staff Costs 10.775752b versus 9.024259b
Full Year Total Operating Expenses 26.348483b versus 22.710865b
Full Year Profit Before Tax before exceptional items 21.300196b versus
Gain on disposal of associate  1.063737b versus 0.00
Full Year Profit after tax and exceptional items 17.151368 versus
13.423784b +27.768%
Full Year Earnings Per share 4.63 versus 3.59 +28.96%
Full Year Dividend 1.80 versus 1.50 +20.00%

"The group's performance was supported by strong underlying
fundamentals, including a 24 percent growth in the balance sheet,"
Mwangi said.


Strong Earnings sweetened via a 1.063737b One-Off Gain.

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M-Pesa customers to receive up to Sh1m loan through phones
Kenyan Economy

It will now be possible to get a loan of up to Sh1 million through
your phone thanks to a deal signed between Safaricom and Kenya
Commercial Bank Group on Tuesday.

The bank will extend loans of between Sh50 and Sh1 million to
Safaricom customers registered on M-Pesa.

The advances will be charged an interest from two per cent per month,
depending on the repayment period and a customer's credit rating.

The deal mirrors a similar deal between Safaricom and Commercial Bank
of Africa, M-Shwari which hit 10 million customers last week.

"This product is a crucial answer to our country's effort to empower
millions of Kenyans by availing credit conveniently through their
mobile phones," KCB group chief executive officer Joshua Oigara said.

Safaricom chief executive Bob Collymore said the partnership is part
of the company's plans to increase the impact of M-Pesa on the lives
of Kenyans.

"Mobile technology has greatly transformed our lifestyles. It is
increasingly making it more convenient for customers to pay utility
bills, withdraw or deposit money in their bank accounts as well as
borrow by the click of a button," Mr Collymore said.

The new deal is an extension to a partnership launched by the two
companies last year to ease access to financial services.

Last year, Kenyans paid bills worth Sh1 billion through M-Pesa to KCB,
deposited Sh59 billion and withdrew a total of Sh66 billion.

"The volume of transactions has grown from 10,000 a day to 100,000.
With a dedicated product, the partnership will widen the possibilities
of what customers can do using their phones," said Mr Oigara.

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@KCBGroup share price data here and FY 2014 Earnings
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           58.00
Total Shares Issued:          2984137017.00
Market Capitalization:        173,079,946,986
EPS:             5.63
PE:                 10.302

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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.92% 2015
Kenyan Economy

172.52 +0.85 +0.50%

Nairobi All Share snapped a profit taking streak which had seen the
All Share correct 3.289% since setting a record 25th February 2015.

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +5.02% 2015


5,368.69 -3.00 -0.06%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

"It is a classic bull market pattern where corrections are shallow"  I
told Duncan Miriri of Reuters, yesterday.

The All share ticked 0.19 of a point higher to close at 172.71.

The Nairobi NSE20 eased back 6.26 points to close 5362.43 and has
corrected 137 points since closing at a 7 year High on the 2nd of this

Equity Turnover throttled back to clock 581.705m.

Safaricom regained a Record Closing High.

The Euro is crashing world-wide and I thought it worth sharing mu
Euro-Shilling Price Target for 2015.

@alykhansatchu Euro Shilling Price Target 85.56 1:36 PM - 11 Mar 2015


The Dollar is King and the Teflon Shilling is outperforming every
single of its African Peers.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Kakuzi was high ticked +4.38% to close at 310.00 and traded just 100
shares. Kakuzi is + a blistering and mouth watering 72.222% in 2015

Tea Prices are +30.00% since December but the Agricultural Sector is
more about the egregious discount to Net Asset Values that these
shares trade at. Real Estate values are carried at cost on the Balance

Williamson Tea rallied +3.649% to close at 284.00 and traded 500 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom and Kenya Commercial Bank announced yesterday that  It will
now be possible to get a loan of up to Sh1 million through your phone

 The bank will extend loans of between Sh50 and Sh1 million to
Safaricom customers registered on M-Pesa.

"This product is a crucial answer to our country's effort to empower
millions of Kenyans by availing credit conveniently through their
mobile phones," KCB group chief executive officer Joshua Oigara said.

"Mobile technology has greatly transformed our lifestyles. It is
increasingly making it more convenient for customers to pay utility
bills, withdraw or deposit money in their bank accounts as well as
borrow by the click of a button," Mr Collymore said.

Safaricom rallied 0.63% to close at a record High of 15.85 previously
reached once before and on the 25th of last month. Safaricom is
+12.811% Year to date and traded 3.247m shares worth 51.586m.
Safaricom is girding its loins for an imminent push through 16.00.

ScanGroup closed unchanged at 47.75 and traded 506,400 shares.
ScanGroup is +5.52% Year to date.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Kenya Commercial Bank rallied +1.72% and in part on the news of the
Safaricom M-Pesa Lending Arrangement to close at 59.00 and was trading
session highs of 59.50 +2.59% at the Finish. Kenya Commercial Bank
traded 838,100 shares and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 2 to
1 at the Finish signalling a Push into new highs.

Equity Group followed on yesterdays high volume action to firm 0.96%
to close at 52.50 and traded 4.041m shares worth 212.239m. Equity Bank
has clocked 13.064m shares traded over 2 Trading Sessions since
releasing its FY 2014 Earnings. Equity Group is +3.96% since that
Earnings Release.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Kenya Power closed unchanged at 18.00 and was well traded with 3.137m
shares worth 56.481m changing hands. KPLC surged +24.56% in 2015 and
Investors were certainly cheered by the Earnings Release.

Mumias Sugar which had rallied +14.814% over the preceding two
sessions gave back 11.29% to close at 2.75.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2015

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