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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 12th of March 2015
 
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Africa

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.@JMakamba Who am I?
Africa


In 1983, my parents decided that I should move back to the village
(this time without my brother) to live with my grandmother.

Life in the village happened at my grandma's place. She used to have a
little village pub selling local brew (lubisi). At 6pm, me and her
open shop. Most customers were men. In the village, people knew each
other and many customers will drink on credit. My grandma, who died
this March, was tough as steel. She would handle drunken men who are
aggressive with command and authority and cow them into leaving the
pub or paying up their debts. I would watch in amazement as collect
the money or measure portions to customers. Village pub conversation
meandered from gossiping, to politics, to the latest developments in
the village, to the retelling of the good old days.

In 1985, I moved back to live with my parents in Lushoto, where I
attended Kitopeni Primary School. My father was moved to Tanga city,
where I completed my primary school education at Masiwani Primary
School, and then he moved to Wete, Pemba, the smaller island in
Zanzibar.

But America was a great place. For summers, I took on all jobs one can
imagine: I delivered pizza and magazines, I worked in nursing homes
caring for the elderly, I worked with people with mental disability
(this was most readily available job for immigrants and foreign
students), I worked as a security guard (where I had to buy that silly
heavy belt with everything on it), as an office clerk, and so on

Father Rene McGraw who got me to "get" Emmanuel Levinas' "Totality and
Infinity: Essays on Exteriority". And since then, I have become a
better person (I believe). I left college and took up a very
competitive graduate assistanceship/internship at the Carter Center,
an institute founded and led by former US President, Jimmy Carter.
This took me to Sierra Leone.

As a result of all this, I left State House enriched with deep
knowledge on many issues and countless lifelong lessons. I will always
be grateful to the President for this exposure and for giving me a
front seat view to history.

Any story has to be wound up. I end with a new beginning - my new
career in elective politics. After five years as Assistant to the
President, and with all the experiences I already mentioned, I thought
it was time that I moved on, and part with the comfort and prestige of
working at the State House. I would step out of the shadow and seek
direct mandate from the people of Bumbuli, my ancestral land, so that
I can represent and speak for them in the Parliament - and also work
with them to advance the development of our region. The campaign for
my election was inspirational to me, as throngs of people - young and
old, men and women - trusted my word that I will serve them diligently
and with all my abilities. I go on with tremendous hope and optimism -
and indeed bolstered by the trust and confidence that my people have
reposed in me. We are going to attempt some bold ideas for the
development of Bumbuli as nothing less is required. And perhaps we can
write a new history.

Macro Thoughts

There will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want
to be the sharks.

Home Thoughts

The Little One got into bed at about 4 in the morning and I was so
glad and put her Fingers in mine and marvelled at how this tiny little
thing had grown so tall. And i thought of Aysha now going to
University and Layla in only twelve months - Aysha and Layla are Irish
Twins [less than 365 days apart well 364 to be exact]. One day life is
all before you and the next day You are watching as Life unfolds for
your children. Its so quick thats what I wish I had realised. That you
have one Life and its so fleeting in fact. These are my sort of
markets so I am not sleeping much, pacing my verandah looking up at
the stars occasionally when I can look away from the Mobile Phone.
[Last night I was thinking about how I had to spend a small fortune to
put up a Tower to get a radio internet connection 10 Years ago and
today i have a @Jaguar in my phone and i am in Africa.



And I was a little slow getting onto things because of this and
because of that but suddenly the Stanley Drickenmiller in me kicked in

read more


29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
Africa


The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.

Stanley Druckenmiller, who with George Soros bet the bank against the
Bank of England on September 16, 1992 and made off with a billion
pounds in the days when a billion was serious amount of stash said
this: "As a macro investor, my job for 30 years was to anticipate
changes in the economic trends that were not expected by others - and
therefore not yet reflected in securities prices".

"Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a
trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig...
As far as Soros is concerned, when you're right on something, you
can't own enough."

''And someone [well several] but why do we not do this ourselves?''


And Nishet said to me ''They simply do not know what they are talking about.''

I am more Sun Tzu these days.

And the point is everything has to align. You have to be right. You
have to be quick and know what you are doing. And I do.

And just before i left this morning I hugged Hannah and opened her
Door onto her verandah and she said what are you doing?

I said i am looking at the stars and thanking God and your Grandmother
for my Hannah.

read more






Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011
Law & Politics


The raw feed of the capture and then death of the Libyan dictator
Muammar Gaddafi and his son Mo'tassim Gaddafi raise plenty of
questions. The bodies are currently lying side by side, bloodied and
half-naked on a filthy mattress in a meat locker, in Misrata.

John Donne wrote: "... Therefore, send not to know for whom the bell
tolls, It tolls for thee..."

I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan's prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that 'The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village' has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and
raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that
message being;

'Don't Fxxk with us! Be- cause you will end up dead and a trophy
souvenir in a fridge.' That same person is probably repeating
Muammar's comment, "I tell the coward crusaders: I live in a place
where you can't get me. I live in the hearts of millions."

And asking 'Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?'

read more






Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0511
Dollar Index 99.92
Japan Yen 121.48
Swiss Franc 1.0118
Pound 1.4930
Aussie 0.7606
India Rupee 62.675
South Korea Won 1128.05
Brazil Real 3.1308
Egypt Pound 7.6237
South Africa Rand 12.2732

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 99.92

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX2909.pdf

The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.

read more


29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
World Currencies


The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.

read more



12-JAN-2015 I think the Fed is just one headline economic print from raising interest rates.
World Currencies


A rate hike, even as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for
a renewed surge in the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher

- buy the dollar.

read more


09-FEB-2015 King Dollar, The Star
World Currencies


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.0514 [0.9300 Target]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

German yields are negative all the way out to September 2022 issuance.

12-JAN-2015 The euro/dollar exchange rate is headed to parity and even
lower in 2015.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1201.pdf

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 6 month INO 1153.78

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

Bullion for immediate delivery lost as much as 0.4 percent to
$1,150.32 an ounce and was at $1,153.10 by 12:38 p.m. in Singapore,
according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Prices declined to $1,147.72
on Wednesday, the lowest level since Dec. 1

read more




@allafrica Lesotho Reopens Parliament After Poll : http://allafrica.com/c/05Hq #Lesotho #SouthernAfrica
Africa


"The world currently faces a massive deficit of infrastructure
investment, especially in the emerging economies of Africa, Latin
America and large parts of Asia," Claude Dauphin, the commodity
trader's executive chairman, said Thursday in a report by Llewellyn
Consulting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/trafigura-says-emerging-markets-must-double-port-rail-spending

"Major international companies may increasingly place themselves at
the center of the solution," Llewellyn said.

Such investment is "central" to commodity companies, Dauphin said.
"Where a bottleneck impedes supply, we will invest to remove it, in
the process connecting new suppliers to global markets."

Competitors Vitol Group and Glencore Plc have also shelled out funds
on oil tanks, terminals and ports to profit from growing demand for
raw materials in emerging markets.

Africa faces the biggest dearth of serviceable infrastructure, the
report shows. Not only must the continent invest in new projects, but
it also needs to repair "very poor" ports, power grids and railways.
The African Development Bank estimates the region must invest about
$90 billion a year over a decade -- equivalent to 15 percent of its
gross domestic product -- in infrastructure.

Zimbabwean riot police clashed outside parliament with protesters
demanding the release of a human-rights activist who was abducted
Monday in Harare, the capital of the southern African nation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/zimbabwe-police-clash-with-protesters-over-activist-s-abduction

Police fired tear gas on Wednesday to disperse protesters after a
police officer was struck on the head by a thrown object.

The U.S. Embassy in Harare expressed "grave concern" about Dzamara's
reported abduction in a statement Wednesday and said that if he's
being held by the authorities it's "vital that his fundamental rights
and freedoms as guaranteed by Zimbabwe's constitution be honored."

Amnesty International called Tuesday on the government to "immediately
investigate and ensure his safety."

read more




South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.40% 2015 [has corrected 1,593 points off an All Time High of 53,346 reached 6th March]
Africa


51,753.07 -335.47 -0.64%

South African Rand Under Siege as Fed Rate Increase Looms

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-10/rand-under-siege-as-fed-rate-increase-looms-south-africa-credit

The rand weakened to its worst level in 13 years as
better-than-estimated U.S. payrolls data last week boosted the dollar
and there is now no key technical resistance level that would stop the
rand from breaching the 13.84 per dollar record it reached in December
2001, according to Johannesburg-based Rand Merchant Bank

The rand gained 0.2 percent to 12.3425 per dollar by 12:13 p.m. in
Johannesburg, advancing the first time in five days and paring its
slide this year to 6.3 percent.

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.2732

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6237

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.32% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -10.68% [Turned lower yesterday after
rallying +13.666% since 13th February through yesterday]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

"Morocco confirms, in the clearest and strongest terms, that there has
never been a phone conversation between the King Mohammed VI and the
president of this country," a statement from the Moroccan foreign
ministry said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/11/us-nigeria-morocco-diplomacy-idUSKBN0M728O20150311

Morocco cited "the hostile, recurrent and unfriendly positions of the
Nigerian government with regard to the Moroccan Sahara issue and the
sacred Arab-Muslim causes" as a reason for declining Jonathan's call.

Nigeria is one of the main supporters, along with Algeria and South
Africa on the continent, of the independence movement Polisario Front
in the disputed Western Sahara.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.63% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya officials to raise railway project funds in Beijing
Africa


The three regional countries behind the Northern Corridor Integration
Projects Initiative (NCPI) have written to China seeking an
appointment for a joint visit aimed at mobilising funds for the
construction of the proposed standard gauge railway (SGR).

Technical estimates put the total budget required for the project,
from Mombasa to Kigali, at $14 billion, an amount Rwanda, Uganda and
Kenya have agreed to source for collectively.

At the end of the 9th summit of the NCPI in Kigali at the weekend, the
Presidents of the subscribing countries reviewed progress so far made
toward the implementation of major projects such as the SGR.

read more




Bank seeks to raise $10 mln via share sale in war-torn Somalia
Africa


International Bank of Somalia (IBS), one of only a handful of
commercial banks operating in the war-torn country, wants to raise $10
million in a public share offering that would be the first of its kind
since civil war broke out in 1991.

Somalia does not have a stock exchange and most banking is done on
informal basis through money transfer firms, but IBS Chief Executive
Hassan Yusuf said those ploughing money into the bank would benefit
from being early investors in the sector.

"Somalia is open for business," Hassan told Reuters on the sidelines
of a Somalia investment forum in the Kenyan capital Nairobi. "People
who go now will be the beneficiaries in the long term."

read more


Zambia's kwacha fell close to 2 percent to its weakest level ever against a firmer dollar on Wednesday
Africa


After tripping to its worst level since May 2014 in the previous
session, and opening on the backfoot in early trade, the currency of
Africa's No. 2 copper producer plunged to 7.2550 per dollar by 1200
GMT.

"There is a dollar shortage in the market working against the kwacha,
as well as concerns over policy continuity after President Lungu's
recent sickness," said Irmgard Erasmus, Zambia analyst at NKC
Economists.

read more


Zambia to triple petrol supply to ease shortage in capital
Africa


Zambia plans to triple petrol supply to 900,000 litres a day using
imported stocks in its storage depots after panic buying by motorists
led to shortages in the capital, the energy minister said on
Wednesday.

read more


Diamond Trust Bank reports FY PAT 2014 +9.132% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  4/-
Closing Price:           244.00
Total Shares Issued:          242110105.00
Market Capitalization:        59,074,865,620
EPS:             21.92
PE:                 11.13

Prominent Kenyan commercial bank

Full Year Earnings through December 2014 versus Full Year Through December 2013

Full Year Total Assets 211.539412b versus 166.520351b +27.03%
Full Year Loans and Advances [Net] to Customers 137.654551b versus
110.945439b +24.074%
Full Year Total Interest Income 20.808016b versus 17.179061b
Full Year Total Interest expenses 8.020415b versus 6.176423b
Full Year Net Interest Income 12.787601b versus 11.002638b
Full Year Non-Interest income 3.796730b versus 3.377754b
Full Year Total Operating Income 16.584331b versus 14.380392b
Full Year Total Operating Expenses 8.067606b versus 7.149353b
Full Year Profit before Tax 8.521286b versus 7.231039b +17.843%
Full Year Profit after Tax 5.708430b versus 5.230754b +9.132%
Full Year Earnings Per share 21.92 versus 20.97 +4.53%
Full Year Dividend 2.40 versus 2.10 +14.285%

Conclusions

Well managed, has a regional Footprint. EPS suppressed because of the
Rights Issue last year

read more





Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


7:48 AM - 12 Mar 2015 The Dollar is King and the Teflon Shilling is
outperforming every single of its African Peers.

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/575880935310229504

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.03% 2015

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

172.71 +0.19 +0.11%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +4.90% 2015

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,362.43 +6.26 +0.12%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share eased 0.29 points to close at 172.42.
The All Share is +5.85% in 2015.
Equity turnover totalled 623.75m.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased a further 14.89 points and has been on a
losing Streak since march 2nd when it closed at a 7 year High.
Safaricom rallied 0.6309% to set a Fresh All time High of 15.95 and is
+13.52% in 2015 and has underpinned the All Share rally in 2015.
Losers outpaced Winners by a Factor of 2 versus 1



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied 0.6309% to close at a Fresh All time closing of
15.95 and was trading at 16.00 +0.95% at the Finish Line. Safaricom
traded 9.547m shares worth 152.295m. Safaricom has surged +13.52% in
2015 and continues to underpin the Bull Market at the Nairobi
Securities Exchange. My Price Target is 21.75.

@Safaricomltd share price data here +13.52% 2015 at an all Time High

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

TPS Serena was the biggest Winner today to close +2.24% at 34.25.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Diamond Trust Bank reported FY 2014 Earnings where Full Year Total
Assets accelerated +27.03% to 211.539412b, Full Year Profit before Tax
increased +17.843% to 8.521286b. Full Year Earnings Per share
increased +4.53% to 21.92 and thats because DTB conducted a Rights
Issue last year and increased the number of shares.  The Full Year
Dividend was increased +14.285% to 2.40 a share but note the Dividend
to EPS Ratio is just 10.948% as DTB retains Earnings for Expansion.
DTB is well managed by Nasim Devji and has an embedded regional
Franchise. Diamond Trust eased 0.8196% to close at 242.00 on light
trading of 13,300 shares. Diamond Trust is +2.97% year to date.

Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 59.00 and traded 210,700 shares.

Equity Group eased 0.95% to close at 52.00 and traded 3.241m shares.
Equity Group has traded heavy volume of 16.305m shares over 3 Trading
sessions since releasing its Full Year Earnings.

Jubilee Holdings rallied 1.478% to close at 549.00 which is a Fresh
Record High. Jubilee has rallied +22.00% in 2015 in line with an
Insurance

Centum closed unchanged at 59.00 and traded solid volume of 1.11m
shares. Centum served up triple digit percentage gains in 2013 and
2014.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Kenya Power rallied +1.39% to close at 18.25 on heavy volume of 4.128m
shares worth 75.523m. KPLC has been a Stand-Out at the Securities
Exchange and has rallied +26.29% as Investors bought into Dr. Ben
Chumo's Road-Map.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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