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Monday 16th of March 2015
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Morning Africa |
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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16-MAR-2015 #Mindspeak Caravan goes to Dar and the January Man @JMakamba Africa |
Mindspeak is a monthly event that I organise and whose inspiration was
an inscription written as you enter the Mevlana’s Mausoleum in faraway
Konya in Turkey, which said:
“Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshiper, lover of leaving.
It doesn’t matter. Ours is not a caravan of despair. Come, even if you
have broken your vows a thousand times. Come, yet again, come, come.”
Rumi
The Mindspeak caravan of hope and 21st century cooperation and
conversation achieved lift-off in 2011 when Uganda President Museveni
graciously accepted to be my guest. That very same weekend, Dr Kiza
Besigye had been airlifted to hospital in Nairobi and we had lift-off.
Mindspeak has hosted Christine Lagarde, President Kagame, Bob
Collymore, Joshua Oigara and I like to think its indigenous and a ‘Go
To Destination’. Its a monster on social media and in many respects I
am prouder of Mindspeak than I am of predicting euro-dollar parity;
the parabolic dollar surge and the collapse in the price of crude oil
[which is all set to drop now below $40.00 and crush rebound hopes
from Venezuela to Nigeria to Angola].
This weekend we took our Mindspeak caravan to Dar-Es- Salaam and this
was particularly cool not only because Tanzania is where my ancestors
landed more than 100 years ago, when they hopped on a dhow from India
and did not take advantage of the reversible escalator com- ponent of
monsoon winds and stayed in Africa, but also because Mindspeak was
hosting the very 21st century 41 year-old (older than 87 per cent of
Tanzanians) presidential candidate January Makamba who is the deputy
minister of Communications Science and Technology. I had met @JMakamba
over Twitter, and when we met for the first time, I was received so
graciously and I found the experience other-worldly and to be
savoured. Etiquette is a little old-style now but fine etiquette is a
wonderful thing. Later when I read January’s biography, I learnt that
he got his etiquette from his grandmother.
‘’Life in the village happened at my grandma’s place. She used to have
a little village pub selling local brew (lubisi)’’
With the background noise about Tanzania’s commitment to the EAC, it
was particularly sweet that it was the very Pan-African East African
Makamba who had taken Mindspeak on the road and regional again.
It was a wonderful session and carried worldwide on a live-stream and
trended first in Tanzania and in Kenya [we are not talking about the
arrival of the new digital Aage in East Af- rica - Its already here].
Makamba was a Tour de Force. There is so much meat on the policy bone
you could feed the 5,000.
I asked Makamba: ‘’Are you a policy wonk?” It was a rhetorical question.
At one point, he told me you can measure your political capital by how
long it takes you through to walk through a room of CCM Party members.
As we walked up the backstairs of the Hyatt Kilimanjaro and he was
regaled by all the ordinary folks who work in the engine- room of a
hotel, I understood what he meant. East Africa is real young now and
the hopes of our people in Dar, in Nairobi, in Kigali, in Kam- pala
have converged. I realised that Makamba is the lightning-rod for the
hopes for a better future that people carry with them.
“Tanzanians are not looking for an elder statesman politician to lead
them, they are looking for a vibrant and honest leader of the new
age.”
I sincerely hope we pushed Makamba closer to the tipping point.
‘’The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or
social behaviour crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like
wildfire.’’
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US shuts down Saudi embassy amid security fears Law & Politics |
The US embassy in the Saudi capital Riyadh has cancelled all consular
services for Sunday and Monday due to "heightened security concerns".
In a statement, the embassy said consular services in Riyadh, Jeddah
and Dhahran would not be available.
It urged US citizens to take extra precautions when travelling in
Saudi Arabia and to keep a low profile.
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U.S. Officials Not Too Worried By Dollar Surging While Central Banks Split on Policy World Currencies |
The dollar is surging. U.S. policy makers look prepared to live with it.
While officials have pointed to the difficulties posed by the
currency’s rise -- it holds back economic growth and suppresses
already too-low inflation -- they’ve indicated no willingness to stand
in its way. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew has repeated the mantra
that a strong dollar is in America’s interest, while Federal Reserve
Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has said it’s a sign of U.S. economic
might.
The rising dollar “is a concern and policy makers will be watching it
closely,” said Charles Collyns, chief economist at the Institute of
International Finance in Washington and a former Treasury official.
But “it’s not a catastrophic shock. It is something that was expected
to happen as a consequence of the great divergence of monetary policy
between the U.S. and elsewhere.”
Lew, who’s scheduled to testify on the international financial system
before a House committee Tuesday, may shed light on his tolerance for
dollar strength. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee
meets on Tuesday and Wednesday to map monetary strategy, and
economists say the greenback’s rise is sure to be discussed.
The phrase “strong dollar” has appeared six times in the two editions
this year of the so-called beige book, a regional review of the
economy that helps inform FOMC members before each meeting. That’s
more strong-dollar mentions in the report than occurred in the past
decade and a half.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency
against 10 major peers, has climbed more than 20 percent since the
middle of last year as the Fed has signaled its intention to raise
rates this year while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan
have acted to aggressively ease monetary policy.
In real, inflation-adjusted terms, the dollar is still well below its
level 30 years ago, when the U.S. and its allies banded together at
the Plaza Hotel in New York in September 1985 to drive down the
currency.
“We’re a long way from where we’ve been in the past, especially in the
1980s,” said Truman, who was at the Fed at the time of the Plaza
Accord.
In perhaps a sign of policy makers’ equanimity, the Fed is expected to
take another step this week toward raising rates by dropping its
pledge to be patient when it comes to tightening credit, according to
Roberto Perli, a partner in Washington for Cornerstone Macro LLC and a
former Fed official.
“Removing the qualifier of ‘patience’ from the Fed’s official
statement borders on ‘ringing the bell’ on a rate hike,” Joseph
Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein LP
in New York, with $488 billion in assets under management, said in a
March 13 note to clients.
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29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises World Currencies |
The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.
Stanley Druckenmiller, who with George Soros bet the bank against the
Bank of England on September 16, 1992 and made off with a billion
pounds in the days when a billion was serious amount of stash said
this: "As a macro investor, my job for 30 years was to anticipate
changes in the economic trends that were not expected by others - and
therefore not yet reflected in securities prices".
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@SAISAfrica tweeted at 6:04 PM on Sun, Mar 15, 2015: Africa's mobile phone penetration to rise to 79% by 2020 Africa |
Zambia's president recovering after surgery in South Africa
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/14/us-zambia-lungu-surgery-idUSKBN0MA07M20150314
Zambia's new President Edgar Lungu has undergone surgery in a South
African hospital to correct a narrowing of the oesophagus which caused
him to fall ill a week ago, his spokesman said.
Lungu underwent "a medical procedure" on Friday and he was expected to
be discharged from the Pretoria hospital later on Saturday, spokesman
Amos Chanda said in a statement.
@joyonlineghana Mar 9 Edgar Lungu collapse: Zambian president
'needs treatment abroad'
pic.twitter.com/u1ONuzwA0m
The kwacha retreated a seventh day, falling 0.7 percent to 7.3118 per
dollar in Lusaka It’s down 13 percent this year, the most among 24
African currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/bank-of-zambia-chief-gets-baptism-by-fire-as-kwacha-collapses
Companies seeking to invest in emerging markets should be on the
lookout for those countries that have invested in diversifying their
economies. That will often mean having Ethiopia on their shortlist.
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2015/03/13/guest-post-em-investors-need-ethiopia-on-their-shortlist/
In 2012, Ethiopia was the 12th-fastest growing economy in the world,
according to the World Bank. Hefty state-led investment has kept the
economy of Africa’s second most populous nation growing at more than 8
per cent a year for over a decade. More than that, it has become
Africa’s fastest-growing non-oil economy. The government’s focus on
value-added activities has bolstered its transformation towards a
diversified economy and, as a result, it is attracting the attention
of ambitious businesses and investors alike. How has it solidified its
position and what are the opportunities for businesses?
With a growing population of 94m, urbanisation and rising income
levels, Ethiopia is also surfacing as an attractive consumer market.
By 2020, Coca-Cola hopes to sell 100m unit cases in Ethiopia, putting
it on par with Egypt and South Africa.
However, the country is not without its challenges and there is some
uncertainty ahead. Ethiopians will go to the polls on May 24. The
elections will likely see another win for the ruling EPRDF party that
has claimed victory in every election since the fall of the Derg
regime in 1991. It will be the first election to be held under the
current prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegnn, after the death in 2012
of Meles Zenawi, who ruled the country for 21 years.
@RetweetEthiopia Jan 26 My beloved city - #AddisAbaba, #Ethiopia.
#photo by Marcin Szczepanski taken on January 24, 2015 #Africa
#skyline pic.twitter.com/OtV9bmlDKd
South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.77% 2015 [-1,048 points since March 6th]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND
Data-usage revenue jumped by 33% to account for nearly a fifth of
MTN’s overall revenue as more subscribers than ever before consume
data on new smartphones, MTN said.
http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2015/03/04/mtn-rides-africa-mobile-data-boom-amid-nigerias-woes/
Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.4458
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1
The rand is trading at a 13-year low and is down 7 percent this year.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman pledged more
than $12 billion, half of them as deposits in the central bank
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-14/egypt-gets-billions-in-aid-deals-as-gcc-investors-lead-charge
“We’ve seen overwhelming support over the past two days, funds coming
through foreign direct investment but also through the private
sector,” Aly Abou-Sabaa, vice president of the African Development
Bank, which he said plans to increase lending to Egypt this year by
$500 million.
Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6011
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1
Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +8.99% 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND
9,726.03 +85.26 +0.88%
Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -10.61% 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND
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Nigeria Central Bank Lacks Resources to Protect Currency, Ex-Chief Says Africa |
“If you didn’t save during the years of plenty, when the drought
comes, you die,” Sanusi said. “And that’s basically what’s happened.
We had high oil prices, we did not save.”
He added: “Now prices are down, the central bank does not have the
ammunition to protect the currency and therefore there is no
alternative to a devaluation, no alternative to a collapse in the
stock market, no alternative to higher inflation until hopefully the
price of oil goes back up.”
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10-NOV-2014 Turning to the markets in Africa, the Nigerian naira and the All- Share index have been "Ouagadougou-ed" by the collapse in price of oil. Africa |
“We’ll spend a lot of time focused on some of the very large growth
opportunities, so Nigeria and Kenya probably being the two most
prominent,” Diana Layfield Stanchart CEO Africa
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/standard-chartered-s-africa-focus-this-year-is-on-nigeria-kenya
"Kenya has managed to diversify," Standard Chartered East Africa CEO
Lamin Manjang said. "It is not a commodity-driven economy" like
Nigeria, he said.
http://www.bdlive.co.za/africa/africannews/2015/03/13/low-oil-price-sees-kenya-benefiting-as-nigeria-strains
Morgan Stanley and Aberdeen Asset Management were among investors that
said they sold all their Nigerian local bonds in the past six months
as the naira weakened 18% against the dollar, the most among 24
African currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Kenya’s shilling depreciated
3.1% in the period.
Yields on Nigeria’s $500m of bonds due July 2023, rated three levels
below investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, climbed 95 basis
points in the past year to 7.01% in Lagos. Yields on Kenya’s $2bn of
debt due June 2024, rated one level lower, dropped 16 basis points
since a sale in June to 6.44%.
The yield divergence will continue at least until after Nigeria’s
presidential election on March 28 and as long as oil prices stay low,
said ING’s Marco Ruijer.
"If oil remains around $60 a barrel, Kenya will trade inside Nigeria.
If prices rise to $70 or $80, that gap should disappear," Mr Ruijer
said.
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.16% 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
U.S. diplomat arrested with pro-democracy activists in Congo
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/15/us-congodemocratic-arrests-idUSKBN0MB10120150315
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CIC Insurance Group Limited reports Full Year EPS 2014 -28.333% Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value:
Closing Price: 10.30
Total Shares Issued: 2178195820.00
Market Capitalization: 22,435,416,946
EPS: 0.43
PE: 23.953
CIC is the leading provider of micro insurance and other financial services
CIC reports FY 2014 Earnings versus FY 2013
Full Year Total Assets 23.690387b versus 17.035817b +39.0622%
FY Deposits with Financial Institutions 8.542103b versus 3.343407b +155.49%
Full Year Gross written premiums 13.721376b versus 11.061282b +24.0486%
FY Net earned premiums 12.310324b versus 9.155682b +34.455%
Full Year Investment Income 1.051816b versus 722.466m
Full Year Total Income 14.519875b versus 10.887100b +33.367%
Full Year Claims and policyholders' benefits expense [8.641875b]
versus [6.020059b] +43.55%
Full Year Operating and other Expenses [3.356525b] versus [2.351499b] +42.73%
Full Year Total Expenses [13.137243b] versus [9.215110b] +42.561%
Full Year Profit before Tax 1.390314b versus 1.671095b -16.8%
Full Year Profit After Tax 1.088440b versus 1.304559b -16.565%
Full Year Earnings Per Share 0.43 versus 0.60 -28.333%
Final Dividend 10cents a share
Company Commentary
PBT ''declined by 17% mainly due to increase in claims [particularly
in our medical business] and policyholders benefit costs.
''The Group is currently undertaking a business transformation exercise''
''Our Operations in Uganda and South Sudan have started off very well''
Operations in Malawi expected to start later this year
Conclusions
Looks expensive now on a P/E Ratio of 23.953.
However, growing its Foot Print regionally.
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Cement consumption grew by nearly a fifth to hit a record five million tonnes last year driven by robust growth in property development. @BD_Africa Kenyan Economy |
The consumption is expected to rise further as the government’s
infrastructure projects get under way.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that
uptake of the building material rose by 19 per cent from 4.2 million
tonnes in 2013.
Global property consultancy Knight Frank said the uptake is set to
rise further on the back of a vibrant real estate sector and planned
mega infrastructure projects.
“The real estate sector is witnessing a boom with no signs of
abating,” said Knight Frank (Kenya) managing director Ben Woodhams.
“This, coupled with government projects such as the standard gauge
railway and Lapsset (Lamu Port South Sudan and Ethiopia Transport
corridor) will continue pushing up demand,” he added.
Kenya’s real estate sector has over the years become popular among
investors as a money-spinner due to princey returns.
The KNBS data shows that consumption has grown 61.2 per cent from 3.1
million tonnes in 2010 to five million tonnes in 2014. This looks set
to increase the share of the construction sector to the country’s
gross domestic product.
Construction grew by 18.9 per cent in the second quarter of last year,
the fastest pace among the economy’s sectors, statistics show.
Cement firms recently cut the ex-factory price of the commodity to
Sh575 per 50kg bag, from over Sh600, citing falling energy prices in
what could further ratchet up demand.
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