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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 17th of March 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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@alykhansatchu Mar 13 Dar~Es~Salaam Night shot from the 8th Floor Hyatt See You at #Mindspeak with @JMakamba
Africa


Macro Thoughts

The Fate of the World's Currencies hang in the linguistic Balance and
whether the FED chooses to remove the word ''Patient''

read more


The Department of the Treasury #Washington [and where once they printed a lot of money] 1080 days ago
Africa


Home Thoughts

The speed of light does not merely trans form the world. It be comes
the world. Glob al i sa-tion is the speed of light. Virilio, Paul.


Images contaminate us like viruses.Paul Virilio

@alykhansatchu  Sunset #ThisisNairobi 6.29
pic.twitter.com/3i2nCRkDyQ

read more




Russia starts nationwide show of force @Reuters
Law & Politics


More than 45,000 Russian troops as well as war planes and submarines
started military exercises across much of the country on Monday in one
of the Kremlin's biggest shows of force since its ties with the West
plunged to Cold War-lows.

President Vladimir Putin called the Navy's Northern Fleet to full
combat readiness in exercises in Russia's Arctic North apparently
aimed at dwarfing military drills in neighboring Norway, a NATO
member.

"New challenges and threats to military security require the armed
forces to further boost their military capabilities. Special attention
must be paid to newly created strategic formations in the north,"
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said, quoted by RIA news agency.

read more


Saudi Arabia has reassured its allies and partners, led by the U.S., that Riyadh is committed to maintaining a trajectory of stability.
Law & Politics


However, in today's rapidly changing Middle East these qualities no
longer carry the weight that they once did.

The scale of Saudi Arabia's domestic problems requires tangible and
genuine reforms, not the preservation of a flawed status quo.

read more



Mideast's Balance of Power Tips Toward Iran @bv
Law & Politics


Difficult though it may be to believe, Iran presents more important
challenges than whether a nuclear deal negotiated with the regime in
the teeth of congressional opposition would be legally binding.
Nuclear weapons are scary, and they do matter, but in the long run,
geopolitical reality matters more. That's why this report, which
arrived over the weekend from the Dubai-based Orient Advisory Group,
should be disturbing:

Ali Younusi, advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, said in a
seminar titled "The Iranian Identity" held in Tehran on March 8th,
that his country is in Iraq to stay. "Iran is an empire once again at
last, and its capital is Baghdad. It is the center of our
civilization, culture and identity as it always was along the course
of history."

Now let's add in last month's comments from General Qassem Suleimani,
leader of the Quds Force, currently aiding -- some would say directing
-- the ground campaign in Tikrit: "Today we see signs of the Islamic
revolution being exported throughout the region, from Bahrain to Iraq
and from Syria to Yemen and North Africa."

Headier stuff still. Tehran makes no secret of its ambitions, and
seems to face no significant opposition in the drive to achieve them.
Certainly the U.S., formerly the dominant regional power, seems to be
standing aside as Iran advances.

Perhaps this is what the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program are
really about. The Obama administration has decided to yield to what it
sees as inevitable: Iran's emerging status as the dominant power in
the Middle East. If that's what's going on, the president of the
United States should say so.

ISIS Vows To 'Blow Up The White House, Big Ben And The Eiffel Tower' << CBS DC

http://cbsloc.al/1Dv88hM

read more


Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe says the West is the cause of many of Africa's problems, urging the continent to "build resistance against them", according to a report.
Law & Politics


According to The Chronicle, Mugabe who was speaking during an
interview with a Japanese TV station on the sidelines of the ongoing
conference on Disaster Risk Management in Sendai, Japan, said the West
wanted regime change in several African countries, including Zimbabwe.

"They [West] want things done their own way... They want regime change
in Zimbabwe. They want me to go, them and not my people," Mugabe was
quoted as saying.

read more


Expectations have been rising that the Fed will drop the word "patient" from its statement
International Trade


Expectations have been rising that the Fed will drop the word
"patient" from its statement on the timing of interest rate increases
- which has fanned expectations for tightening as early as June and
helped prompt the dollar's recent surge.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.5061 The euro was steady at $1.0568 EUR=, having rebounded
overnight from $1.0457, its lowest since 2003.
Dollar Index 99.69 The dollar index was little changed at 99.713 .DXY
after pulling back from a 12-year high above 100.00 struck late last
week.
Japan Yen 121.44 The dollar inched up 0.1 percent to 121.44 yen JPY=,
stuck in a relatively narrow range since advancing to an eight-year
high of 122.04 on March 10.
Swiss Franc 1.0081
Pound 1.4826
Aussie 0.7623 The Aussie was down 0.2 percent at $0.7623 AUD=D4,
crawling closer to a six-year trough of $0.7561 plumbed last week.
India Rupee 62.836
South Korea Won 1131.81
Brazil Real 3.2530
Egypt Pound 7.6243
South Africa Rand 12.4087

read more



29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
World Currencies


The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.

Stanley Druckenmiller, who with George Soros bet the bank against the
Bank of England on September 16, 1992 and made off with a billion
pounds in the days when a billion was serious amount of stash said
this: "As a macro investor, my job for 30 years was to anticipate
changes in the economic trends that were not expected by others - and
therefore not yet reflected in securities prices".


12-JAN-2015 I think the Fed is just one headline economic print from
raising interest rates.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0902.pdf

A rate hike, even as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for
a renewed surge in the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher


- buy the dollar.

read more







Crude Oil Chart @YahooFinance 43.77
Commodities


U.S. crude CLc1 fell 6 cents to $43.82 a barrel, after settling down
96 cents a day ago when it tumbled to $42.85, its lowest since March
2009.

Gold Chart

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3002236-understanding-the-large-swings-in-gold-prices

read more






@africaceoforum A new economic paradigm is to transform africa in the next 20 years @JeremyRifkin #ACF2015
Africa


@africaceoforum  Today African companies need to move on a mobile
basis in order to move forward @JeremyRifkin #ACF2015

pic.twitter.com/hZUbd4nz1n

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.46% 2015 [2.26% below a record
closing High reached 6th March]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.4087

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Muslim Brotherhood leader Badie sentenced to death in Egypt

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/76069000/jpg/_76069333_l0j4dr6m.jpg

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6243

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.79% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigerian Election Agency Says It's Ready for Credible Vote

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/nigerian-election-body-says-it-s-ready-for-credible-vote

Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission is set to hold
credible elections starting March 28 after delaying the ballots by six
weeks, its Chairman Attahiru Jega said.

"We believe we have done everything humanly possible to be able to
conduct elections that are free, fair, credible and peaceful," Jega
told reporters on Monday in the capital, Abuja. "We are adequately
prepared."

Out of 68.8 million people on the electoral register, 56 million, or
81 percent, have collected voter cards, from 67.8 million printed for
national distribution, he said.

Conclusions


At the last count it was tied at 42%. That signals extreme contestation.


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -12.48% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

29,929.56 -789.80 -2.57%

Nigerian stocks fell the most in over a month as political tension
rises less than two weeks before a presidential election and as oil
slumped to a six-year low.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-16/nigeria-stocks-fall-most-in-a-month-as-elections-loom-oil-falls

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index dropped 2.6 percent to
29,929.56, at the 2:30 p.m. close in Lagos, the commercial capital.
That's the worst performance since Feb. 12, extending the gauge's loss
this year to 14 percent. U.S. oil futures slumped to the lowest level
since March 2009.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.09% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Ghana has slashed its 2015 oil revenue forecast to 1.5 billion cedis
($417 million) from 4.2 billion cedis when the budget was presented in
November due to lower crude prices.

Ghana finance minister vows economy will soar again William Wallis in
London @FT Subscriber

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e2b2bede-c99f-11e4-b2ef-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UX1RixIp

Ghana's volatile economy will be stabilised by an International
Monetary Programme and rebound within three years to the soaring
growth rates that saw it lead African frontier markets at the start of
the decade, according to the country's finance minister.

Seth Terkper, who was speaking on a return journey from Washington
where he was finalising details of a $1bn IMF bailout agreement, said
new oil production would arrive in 2016 and that an end was in sight
to power shortages as gas supplies come on-stream.

"We are going to see an increase in crude oil production from 110,000
to 250-280,000 barrels a day as well as significant increases in gas
supplies. That is going to help us. If we continue with fiscal
consolidation we are going to return to 8 or 9 per cent growth," he
told the Financial Times.

Mr Terkper added that government policy "is all about bringing
stability so you don't jeopardise the medium-term prospects". That
means, he acknowledges, a tough year ahead.

A London-based financial analyst who has followed the west African
country's escalating financial difficulties said "there is little room
to get it wrong".

Africa sets its sights beyond commodities

http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/africa-sets-its-sights-beyond-commodities

Of Africa's 54 countries, 24 rely on a select few mineral products to
generate more than 75 per cent of their export earnings, according to
a study by the African Development Bank (ADB)

read more


Global demand for tea is forecast to expand 5.8% p.a. between 2015 and 2019. China, Japan, Morocco, Sri Lanka and the United States are considered the highest potential markets in the coming years.
Kenyan Economy


Lewes, DE -- (ReleaseWire) -- 03/16/2015 -- According to recently
published research conducted by a leading international market
research company, Global Research & Data Services, the expansion of
the global tea industry is forecast to reach 5.8% p.a. in the coming
years. Between 2008 and 2014 the market increased with an average
annual growth of 10.0%. Currently, green tea (unfermented) accounts
for 43.2% of the global demand while the remaining market share is
divided between black tea (fermented or partly fermented) (29.8%) and
tea concentrates, extracts and essences (27.0%).


China, India, Japan, Sri Lanka and the United States represent the
largest tea markets while the strongest annual growth is forecast to
occur in Morocco (20.2%), Panama (15.4%), Bolivia (12.8%), Rwanda
(12.1%) and Ethiopia (10.4%).

The information is extracted from a recently published reports: Global
Tea Market Reports

read more



Standard Group Ltd.
Kenyan Economy

 


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           40.00
Total Shares Issued:          81481478.00
Market Capitalization:        3,259,259,120
EPS:             2.57
PE:               15.564

Full Year Revenue 4.782649b versus 4.818808b

Full Year Other Total Operating Costs [4.399724b] versus [4.472584b]
Full Year Finance Costs [net] [118.416m] versus [119.128m]
Full Year Profit before Taxation 326.083m versus 300.68m
Full Year Earnings Per Share 2.57 versus 2.41
Full Year Dividend 50cents unchanged

Company Commentary


Print +8.00% Television +6% And radio advertising +66%
Newsprint prices globally have been on the decline
Standard Digital Platform grew Revenues +37%

Conclusions


The Digital Fracas only kicked in after the reporting period.
Revenues declined in fact.
Shares are tightly held.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 92.148

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.44% 2015 [has corrected 3.2955% since
closing at a record 177.51 25th February]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

171.66 -0.35 -0.20%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +4.56% 2015 [has corrected 157.47 points
[-2.863%] since reaching a 7 Year High March 2nd]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,342.17 -8.13 -0.15%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

The Knight Frank wealth report, however, notes that Nairobi should see
the opening of around 1.8 million square feet of first-world shopping
malls, with new international retailers committing to the region for
the first time.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Nairobi-loses-top--spot-in-increase-of-luxury-home-prices-/-/539552/2655596/-/xmlvqc/-/index.html

"This is largely being driven by a burgeoning middle class hungry for
Western-style goods and shopping experiences that, by and large, seem
impervious to political controversies and terror ism activities," said
Knight Frank.

The ODM candidate in the Kajiado Central by-election was Monday night
declared winner of the tightly contested poll.

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/Bribery-claims-mar-close-race-in-Kajiado/-/1064/2655768/-/14fdbx5z/-/index.html

Conclusions


That was in fact unexpected

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today


The US Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting today and tomorrow and
The currency markets will swing big in favour of the Dollar if the FED
removes the word ''patient'' from its Statement.

The shilling was at near 3-year lows on Tuesday of 92.05/15 against
the dollar. The central bank sold an undisclosed amount of dollars on
Monday when the shilling touched its lowest level since Nov. 2011.

The ''Teflon'' Shilling has outperformed all its African Peers and is
only -1.8% versus the Dollar this year.

I expect a further second round of severe weakness in the Price of
crude Oil. In fact, Its now a racing certainty to drop below $40.00 a
barrel and might even reach $30.00. This will place intolerable
pressure on the Oil Producers particularly  Nigeria.

Therefore, I expect the January and February Trend where funds tagged
Destination Lagos were re-routed to Nairobi and Johanesburg.

I expect that Trend seen in the 1st 2 months of the Year to reassert itself.

The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.33 points to close at 171.99.
The Nairobi NSE20 could not arrest a losing streak going back to March
2nd when the Index closed at a 7 year high. The NSE20 shed 28.32
points. to close at 5313.84
Equity Turnover was brisk and clocked 950.099m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Standard Group reported FY 2014 Earnings where Full Year Revenue
retreated to 4.782649b versus 4.818808b previously,  Full Year Profit
before Taxation rose to 326.083m versus 300.68m in FY 2013.  The Group
said Print revenues +8.00% Television +6% And radio advertising +66%.
The Standard Digital Platform grew Revenues +37% but the reporting
period did not capture the Digital Migration Fracas. Standard Group
traded 500 shares [the shares are tightly held] at 40.50 and
unchanged. Standard Group is +16.54% in 2015.
Nation Media eased 0.47% to close at 247.00 and traded 6.500 shares.
Nation Media is -6.08% Year To date and has bounced +7.39% off a 2
year closing Low reached on the 6th of this month.

Safarciom ticked 5cents easier to close at 15.60 but was trading at
15.70 +0.32% at the Finish Line. Safaricom traded 6.764m shares with
Buyers at the Finish for 2x the volume traded during the session.
Safaricom is +11.03% Year To date and will set a Fresh Record High at
16.00+ in short order.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 60.00 and traded 1.274m
shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Margin of 2.5 versus 1 and I am
expecting a move to 66.00 which was my Post FY 2014 Results price
Target.
Equity Group closed unchanged at 51.50 and was the most heavily traded
share at the Securities Exchange with 4.698m shares worth 243.18m
changing hands. Equity Group reported Full Year Profit after tax and
exceptional items acceleration of 17.151368 +27.768%

Jubilee Holdings traded 1,000 shares all at 551.00 +0.36% which is a
Fresh Record Closing High. Jubilee has surged 22.444% in 2015.

Pan Africa Insurance Co confirmed the completion of the Acquisition of
a 51% shareholding in Gateway Insurance Company and closed unchanged
at 133.00 Pan Africa Insurance is +10.8333% Year To date.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL rallied +2.95% to close at 314.00 and was trading at 317.00
+3.93% at the closing Bell. EABL traded heavy volume 622,600 shares
worth 195.506m. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Margin of 2 versus 1.
EABL is +1.94% in 2015 and targets its 2015 High of 350.00. The Price
swooned 18.644% off a 2015 High 18th February through 5th March. EABL
has bounced +6.44% since 5th March as the price corrects what was a
severe over-reaction.

East African Portland Cement was the biggest Gainer at the Securities
Exchange and traded +10% at 66.00 but on just an odd-lot of 100
shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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