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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 18th of March 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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@alykhansatchu Mar 13 Dar~Es~Salaam Night shot from the 8th Floor Hyatt See You at #Mindspeak with @JMakamba
Africa


Macro Thoughts

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to lay the groundwork for
its first interest rate hike in nearly a decade.

read more


Christine @Lagarde Warns World to Brace for Volatility If Fed Surprises
Africa


“We are perhaps approaching the point where, for the first time since
2006, the United States will raise short term interest rates later
this year,” Lagarde said in Mumbai on Tuesday. “Even if this process
is well managed, the likely volatility in financial markets could give
rise to potential stability risks.”

While markets have priced in possible Fed tightening to an extent, the
International Monetary Fund sees some volatility based on the timing,
pace and volume of a move, Lagarde said. She called for more policy
cooperation among central banks as they get closer to an “inflexion
point.”

“We went through a period of total lack of volatility for very long,”
Lagarde said during a question-and-answer session. “Some people got
used it, but the normal way of operating is more volatility than what
we have than no volatility.”

Conclusions

I am as you know a very big Fan and she is right on the money.

read more



If #Mindspeak was an ice- cream Sundae, then Christine @Lagarde’s appearance today is like the Maraschino cherry that you find on top of the Sundae
Africa


She said many things and when Hannah gave her roses and said; ‘’I want
to be like you’’ Lagarde replied; ‘’Work hard and you can be anything
you want to be.’’
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX0601.pdf

Christine @Lagarde Hannah myself #Mindspeak 6th Jan 2014 InterConNairobi
http://www.twitpic.com/ds7aj4

Home Thoughts

read more


“Death is not extinguishing the light; it is only putting out the lamp because the dawn has come.” ― Rabindranath Tagore
Africa


“Everything comes to us that belongs to us if we create the capacity
to receive it.” ― Rabindranath Tagore

read more







South African President Jacob Zuma (left) with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Moscow on August 28, 2014.
Law & Politics


Russia is working with South Africa and Uganda on a number of projects
— a clear indication of its return to Africa. AFP PHOTO | SERGEI
KARPUKHIN


RT Global Resources, firm that won bid to build Uganda oil refinery,
is a subsidiary of Russia’s largest state-backed corporation Rostec,
whose chief executive, Sergey Chemezov, is on US and EU sanctions
lists after Russia’s moves in Ukraine.
Moscow’s interest in Africa is also about “soft power,” says Keir
Giles, director of the UK’s Conflict Studies Research Centre.
Several African leaders were educated in Moscow and the USSR invested
in military advisers, equipment and support from the KGB.
Last year, Russia launched a satellite system in partnership with
South Africa, known as Project Condor, providing surveillance of the
entire African continent, according to spy cables leaked to Al
Jazeera.

read more


Dollar bulls bank on Fed losing its patience
International Trade


A Fed statement is due at 1800 GMT, followed half an hour later by a
press conference with Chair Janet Yellen. The central bank will also
release members' forecasts for inflation and interest rates, and some
analysts suspect the trajectory of future increases could be lowered.

A string of strong payroll reports has left the strong impression the
Fed will drop its reference to being patient on policy but still make
a rate increase conditional on economic developments, in particular
inflation.

"Our baseline view is that the Fed can start its normalization process
around mid-year," said Tom Kenny, an analyst at Australia and New
Zealand Bank.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0604 euro labouredly at $1.0608 EUR=, having failed to sustain
a modest bounce to $1.0651 overnight. Support was seen at $1.0551
ahead of the 12-year trough of $1.0457.
Dollar Index 99.54 Against a basket of currencies, the dollar held
steady at 99.530 .DXY, and within spitting distance of its recent
12-year peak of 100.390.
Japan Yen 121.34 The dollar was also steady at 121.36 yen JPY=,
mid-way between support at 120.67 and resistance at 122.02.
Swiss Franc 1.0056
Pound 1.4761 Sterling was under pressure at $1.4759 GBP= ahead of busy
session that includes UK jobs data, minutes of the Bank of England's
last policy meeting and a budget from the Conservative government.
Aussie 0.7623
India Rupee 62.705
South Korea Won 1126.47
Brazil Real 3.2454
Egypt Pound 7.6286
South Africa Rand 12.3622

read more



29-SEP-2014 A Small Window for Sharks as Dollar Rises
World Currencies


The point I am making is that the dollar has just started going. There
will be blood in the water. There is a small window if we want to be
the sharks.

read more



12-JAN-2015 I think the Fed is just one headline economic print from raising interest rates
World Currencies


A rate hike, even as small as 0.25 per cent, will be the catalyst for
a renewed surge in the dollar. The Dollar Index is headed a lot higher

- buy the dollar.

read more


09-FEB-2015 King Dollar, The Star
World Currencies


12-JAN-2015 The euro/dollar exchange rate is headed to parity and even
lower in 2015.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/038NSX1201.pdf

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.0604 [0.9300 Target]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_EURUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


@Citi Sees Slower Commodities Demand Growth as China Recedes

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-17/citigroup-sees-slower-commodities-demand-growth-as-china-recedes

Global commodity markets will see slower and less synchronized demand
growth from across the world as China’s dominance fades, according to
Citigroup Inc.

Global demand expansion, which centered on the rise of China in the
2000s, will slow in the next decade and be driven increasingly by
India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa, the
New York-based bank said in a report e-mailed Tuesday. While demand
will increase from these regions, dubbed the “Emerging 5”, it won’t be
enough to offset the impact of slower growth from China, Citigroup
said.

Commodities tumbled to a 12-year low on Monday, with crude oil in New
York slumping 18 percent in 2015.


 Inventories are rising after a decade-long bull market spurred
farmers, miners and drillers to increase production just as economic
growth slowed in China. The world’s biggest metals and energy consumer
grew at the slowest pace since 1990 last year.

“China’s economic transition and the inability of other emerging
markets to pick up the slack are driving slower demand growth across
the commodities complex,” analysts including Ivan Szpakowski and Ed
Morse wrote in the report. “The extent of slowdown is likely to vary
by commodity.”

The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 22 raw materials, was at
97.4738 on Tuesday, down 6.6 percent this year. The gauge slumped to
96.4714 on Monday, the lowest level since June 2002.


Among the hardest hit raw materials from China’s slowdown are bulk
commodities such as coal, iron ore and steel due to their exposure to
China’s manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate sectors,
according to the report.

read more


The world has never been so awash in sugar.
Commodities


All of that sugar signals global prices, already down 51 percent in
three years, are poised to fall further, cutting costs for buyers like
Krispy Kreme Donuts Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., the maker of
Cadbury chocolates and Oreos. New York sugar futures probably will
slide 6.8 percent by July to 12.02 cents a pound, the lowest since
January 2009, a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts showed.


Raw sugar for May delivery has tumbled 11 percent this year to 12.9
cents on ICE Futures U.S. in New York as of Monday, among the biggest
declines of the 22 raw materials tracked by the Bloomberg Commodity
Index, which fell 6.7 percent.

read more




Crude Oil 1 Year INO 44.80 [going below 40.00 and thats a racing certainty]
Commodities


Brent crude fell towards $53 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. crude
stocks were forecast to have surged for the tenth straight week to a
new record high, fuelling supply concerns of a global oil glut,
although a weaker dollar kept a floor under prices.

Brent for May delivery LCOc1 fell 25 cents to $53.26 a barrel by 0357
GMT after ending the previous session 7 cents up at $53.51.

U.S. crude for April delivery CLC1 fell 79 cents to $42.67 a barrel,
falling more than $1 a barrel in early Asian trade on Wednesday after
crude inventories rose by 10.5 million barrels to 450 million in the
week to March 13, data from industry group the American Petroleum
Institute showed on Tuesday.

read more


Deutsche Bank AG plans to make the Dubai International Financial Centre the hub for its African operations, according to its local chief executive officer.
Emerging Markets


Ashok Aram, who heads Deutsche Bank in the Middle East, made the
announcement Tuesday at the Bloomberg Future Cities Forum in Dubai.
The board has approved the move, he said. Aram is also taking over
responsibility for the Africa business, according to a Dubai-based
spokesman for the bank.

read more



24 FEB 14 Dubai is the real transit state, a connection point in an interconnected century.
Emerging Markets


“There is nothing like a dream to create the future,” Victor Hugo said.

Frontier Markets

read more


Into Africa: The continent’s Cities of Opportunity Report PWC
Africa


The megatrends, as we call them in PwC, are colliding across Africa.
The growing middle class, the strong demographic growth with improving
age mix, the technological innovation that we have already seen in
mobile payments for example, growing choice of investment partners
from the global south and fast-paced urbanisation are shaping what the
future of Africa could look like. These trends twinned with the
generally accepted economic data that cities are the world’s engines
of growth, makes our Into Africa - the continent's Cities of
Opportunity report not only necessary but extremely timely. Africa is
at an exceptional historical crossroad, if there was ever a moment for
an entire continent to seize the day, this is it.

Twenty African cities considered among the most dynamic and focused on
the future are Abidjan, Accra, Addis Ababa, Algiers, Antananarivo,
Cairo, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar-es-Salaam, Douala, Johannesburg,
Kampala, Kigali, Kinshasa, Lagos, Luanda, Lusaka, Maputo, Nairobi and
Tunis.

read more



Africa @ChathamHouse Tweets
Africa


Africa @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg  ·  32m 32 minutes ago
#Nigeria is the giant in #African oil. What happens there has a
spillover effect across the region: Alex Gillies
@NRGInstitute
#CHAfrica

Africa @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg  ·  34m 34 minutes ago Swiss
commodity traders bought $55 bn oil from #African national oil
companies in 3 yrs, 2x aid flow: Alex Gillies @NRGInstitute #CHAfrica

Africa @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg  ·  40m 40 minutes ago Value of oil
sold by Congo-Brazzaville's national oil company is more than 80% of
government revenue: Alex Gillies
@NRGInstitute, #CHAfrica

Africa @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg  ·  56m 56 minutes ago Most #African
states have not made full use of their ability to maximise wealth from
natural resources: Dr Soares de Oliveira #CHAfrica

Africa @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg  ·  59m 59 minutes ago New oil
companies in #Africa have the same desire as old ones - political
stability: Dr Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, Oxford Uni #CHAfrica


Africa @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg  ·  1h 1 hour ago #Nigeria, #Angola &
#Mozambique see good partnerships btwn Western & Asian oil players: Dr
Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, Oxford Uni #CHAfrica

Africa @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg  ·  1h 1 hour ago Exploration in East
#Africa can cost up to $60 million, compared to about $5 million in
remote parts of India: Rahul Dhir, Delonex #CHAfrica


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.78% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 5.1 of GDP in the
fourth quarter of the year from a revised shortfall of 5.8 percent
previously [Oil refers]

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.3622

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6286

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +7.15% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -13.57% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

29,553.69 -375.87 -1.26%

read more




Foreigners train Nigerian troops as "final onslaught" hits Boko Haram Reuters
Africa


* South Africans, Russians, Koreans in northeast Nigeria

* Not there to fight Boko Haram, Abuja says

* "Final onslaught" against Islamists under way

LONDON, March 17 (Reuters) - Foreign private security personnel from
South Africa, Russia and South Korea are on the ground in northeast
Nigeria to train Nigerian troops and are not engaged in frontline
combat against Boko Haram, the government said on Tuesday.

According to security and diplomatic sources, Nigeria has brought in
hundreds of mercenaries to give its offensive against the Islamist
militant group a shot in the arm ahead of the March 28 presidential
elections.

read more







COOP Bank Kenya reports FY PAT 2014 -12.002% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           20.50
Total Shares Issued:          4889316295.00
Market Capitalization:        100,230,984,048
EPS:             1.64
PE:               12.5

Group Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2014 versus through
December 2013

Full Year Total Assets 285.396067b versus 231.215359b +23.433%
Full Year Loans and Advances to Customers [net] 179.846355b versus
137.087227b +31.19%
Full Year Total Interest Income 29.352011b versus 24.541725b
Full Year Total Interest Expenses 8.076154b versus 5.915815b
Full Year Net Interest Income 21.275858b versus 18.625910b
Full Year Total Non-Interest Income 10.809905b versus 9.263893b
Full Year Total Operating Income 32.085762b versus 27.889803b
Full Year Loan Loss Provision 1.175598b versus 0.778157b
Full Year Total Operating Expenses 20.098019b versus 17.382727b
Profit before Tax and Exceptional Items 11.987743b versus 10.507075b +14.092%
FY Exceptional items -Early Retirement Costs [1.342509b] versus 0.00

Share of profit of Associate 270.976m
Full Year Profit Before Tax 10.916210b versus 10.872444b +0.4025%
Full Year Tax 3.453288b versus 1.996713b +72.94%
Full Year Profit after Tax 8.014997b versus 9.108185b -12.002%
Full Year Earnings Per Share 1.64 versus 2.17 -24.42%
Final Dividend 0.50cents a share unchanged

The lender, which serves individuals and co-operatives in the east
African nation, said it incurred a one-off payment of 1.34 billion
shillings to cut staffing as part of its restructuring programme, and
projected a 30 percent growth in profitability in 2015 resulting from
the restructuring

Conclusions

The One-Off Redundancy Charge crimped Earnings.
Has a Strong franchise.

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 92.245 [The Shilling is in fact Teflon]
Kenyan Economy


 Over the past six months, the shilling has declined 3 percent against
the dollar

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +5.64% 2015 [has corrected 3.109% off a
Record High reached 25th February]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

171.99 +0.33 +0.19%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +4.01% 2015 [-186 points since 2nd March]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,313.84 -28.33 -0.53%

The Nairobi NSE20 could not arrest a losing streak going back to March
2nd when the Index closed at a 7 year high.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


Tea prices hit two-year high at auction as drought bites
Kenyan Economy


In last week’s auction, a kilogramme of tea traded at $2.85 (Sh259)
from $2.64 (Sh240) at the weekly auction, representing eight per cent
increase.

About 5.8 million kilogrammes of tea were offered for sale in last
week’s auction against 6.2 million kilogrammes in the previous week.

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


The Official Closing Data has not been received as I file this.
Equity Turnover clocked 658.693m.
"Nairobi outscores all African cities in FDI," PWC says in its Africa:
The Continent's Cities of Opportunity Report.
Over the past six months, the shilling has declined 3 percent against
the dollar which is worth remembering.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Tea prices hit a two-year high at auction in Mombasa. In last week's
auction, a kilogramme of tea traded at $2.85 (Sh259) from $2.64
(Sh240) representing an 8% week on week increase.

Sasini Tea and Coffee reacted +8.75% higher to close at 14.90 and
traded 6,700 shares. Sasini Tea is +15.95% in 2015 and played some
Catch-Up today.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied +0.9615% to close at 15.75 and was stretching to
trade at session highs of 15.90 +1.92% at the finish line. Safaricom
6.763m shares and Buyers were outpacing sellers by a Factor of 3
versus 1 at the Finish. Safaricom is +12.099% in 2015 and remains in a
relentless Bull Trend.

Standard Group which reported FY 2014 Earnings earlier this week where
FY Revenue declined marginally reacted 8.64% lower today to close at
37.00. Standard Group remains +6.56% in 2015.
Nation Media closed unchanged at 247.00. Nation Media is -6.083% in
2015 but has rebounded 9.29% since  closing at a 2 Year Low on 6th
March when #digitalmigration Fears and Nation Media's apparent
Game-Plan struck the Price hard.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


COOP Bank Kenya reported a +14.092% Acceleration in Profit before Tax
and exceptional Items. COOP booked an Exceptional Item of 1.342509b
related to early retirement costs which meant that FY 2014 Profit
after Tax declined -12.002% and FY Earnings Per Share -24.42%.  COOP
Bank struck an upbeat Note in its Briefing saying that they are
projecting a 30 percent growth in profitability in 2015 resulting from
the restructuring. COOP Bank eased 1.21% to close at 20.25 and traded
1.740m shares worth 35.666m. COOP Bank is +1.25% in 2015 and has a
strong embedded Franchise, in fact.

Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 60.00 [its weighted average
was 60.40 which is a bullish Price Signifier] and traded 836,800
shares. Buyers are outpacing Sellers by a Factor of more than 2 versus
1 and KCB is set to print Fresh All Time Highs in short order. KCB is
+5.26% in 2015 and very firmly underpinned.

BRITAM EA bounced 1.85% to close at 27.50 and traded 792,900 shares
ahead of its Earnings Release this Friday.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL rallied a further +1.59% to close at 319.00 on heavy volume
action of 566,100 shares worth 181.14m. EABL rallied +13.636% from the
start of the year through 19th February this year. Subsequently, EABL
corrected 15.714% off its 2015 High from 19th February through 4th
March, in a very overcooked Sell-Off. Since the 4th of March EABL has
rebounded +8.1355% signalling the Sell-Off was a head fake and EABL
will return post haste to its 19th February High of 350.00.

Mumias Sugar issued a Stock Exchange Notice this morning for an
Extraordinary General Meeting which will be held at Tom Mboya Labour
College Kisumu on Friday 10th April to conduct the following business
of which Item 3. reads Change in Capital Structure and 4. Rights
Issue. Mumias Sugar ticked 5cents easier to close at 2.65 and traded
1.477m shares.

BOC Gases firmed 2.9411% to close at 140.00 on just 500 shares. BOC is
+12.00% Year to date.

East African Portland Cement which was marched up by its daily limit
of 10% yesterday on wait for it  just 100 shares was marched down
9.09% to close back at 60.00 where it all began.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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