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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 19th of March 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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@alykhansatchu Mar 13 Dar~Es~Salaam Night shot from the 8th Floor Hyatt See You at #Mindspeak with @JMakamba
Africa


Macro Thoughts

yesterday will be seen as a Head-Fake

All the [Euro] Shorts got squeezed out yesterday.

Therefore, BUY THE DOLLAR SELL THE EURO


Home Thoughts

“There are dead stars that still shine because their light is trapped
in time. Where do I stand in this light, which does not strictly
exist?” ― Don DeLillo, Cosmopolis

read more



China: With friends like these @FT
Law & Politics


In global terms, the defeat of Mahinda Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka’s
presidential elections in January ranked as a mere political tremor.
But for China’s policy of financial diplomacy — a key strand in
Beijing’s strategy to win friends and commercial advantage around the
world — the loss has been convulsive enough to rearrange the region’s
diplomatic furniture. Sri Lanka’s new leader, Maithripala Sirisena,
has not hid his antipathy toward China. In a veiled reference to
Chinese policy-backed loans worth several billion dollars, Mr Sirisena
blamed “foreigners” during his election campaign for stealing his
country.

“This robbery is taking place before everybody and in broad daylight .
. . if this trend continues for another six years our country would
become a colony and we would become slaves,” he said in his manifesto.

Since his victory, Colombo has informed Beijing that it is reviewing
the terms of its loans. It has also suspended work on a $1.5bn port
project being built by the state-owned China Communications
Construction Company. And while Sri Lanka says it hopes to keep warm
ties with Beijing, last week Mr Sirisena also stepped up his courtship
of China’s main regional competitor, by welcoming Narendra Modi on the
first visit by an Indian premier for 28 years.

The reversal is not an isolated setback for China’s “cheque book”
foreign policy but the latest in a string of upsets that have
punctuated Beijing’s attempts to secure resources, markets and
strategic alliances in developing countries with policy-driven loan
deals.

Ukraine is heavily in arrears in its Chinese lending, while Zimbabwe
has failed to repay a much smaller amount. Other recipients of Chinese
policy-driven finance — such as Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina — are
suffering varying degrees of economic distress, casting doubt on their
ability to repay. “China is taking on too much risk in its lending to
regimes that are unstable in Africa, Latin America and even in some
Asian countries,” says Yu Yongding, a professor at the Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences think-tank. “Many Chinese institutions thought that
as long as they made deals with the governments, the deals are done.
But political reality is much more complicated.”


For China, there is much more than money at stake. Beijing has used
its status as the world’s biggest provider of development finance to
burnish claims of leadership in the developing world, deploying funds
from its $3.8tn in foreign currency reserves to boost relations with
countries that sometimes have an anti-US agenda. But this model now
looks compromised, analysts say. Bilateral deals stitched together in
secret with countries afflicted with poor credit ratings, insecure
governments and ailing resource sectors have shown a propensity to
unravel.

The change in China’s financial diplomacy model has implications for
the wider world. There are signs that Beijing is growing less tolerant
of the more egregious risks, a trend that could deprive some of the
world’s most fragile economies of crucial lines of credit.
Beijing
also appears intent on spreading its risk, embracing a more
institutional and multilateral approach — as demonstrated by its plans
for an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development
Bank. In addition, there are tensions within Beijing over how far
these Chinese-led institutions should be purely profit-driven and to
what extent they should pursue the country’s political and strategic
agendas, analysts say.

Conclusions


This is a valid Point. Some of these Loans have no chance of repayment at all.

read more






Dollar sags, bonds boom on FED
International Trade


 The dollar was giving ground in Asia on Thursday as investors priced
in a later start and a slower pace for future U.S rate rises, slashing
bond yields globally and firing up stocks.

The formerly friendless euro found itself up at $1.0880 EUR=, having
jumped 2.8 percent on Wednesday, while oil held gains of 5 percent as
the dollar retreat benefited commodities.

Short-term U.S. yields had boasted their biggest drop in six years
after the Federal Reserve trimmed forecasts for inflation and growth,
and said unemployment could fall further than first thought without
risking a spike in inflation.

The median projection for the Fed funds rate at the end of 2015 was
cut to 0.625 percent, down half a point from December.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen also sounded uncomfortable with the strength of
the dollar, saying it would be a "notable drag" on exports and a
downward force on inflation.

The market reaction was immediate and violent. Fed fund futures
<0#FF:> surged as investors sharply scaled back expectations for how
fast and far rates might rise.

Yields on two-year notes US2YT=RR nosedived 11 basis points to 0.56
percent as prices rose, the biggest daily rally since 2009.

The drop in yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar, as
investors have been massively long of the currency in the expectation
its interest rate advantage could only get wider.

Against a basket of currencies the dollar was down a further 0.3
percent =USD, having shed 1.8 percent on Wednesday.

The Swiss franc, sterling and the Australian dollar all enjoyed
similar gains, while the New Zealand dollar NZD= got an extra boost
from upbeat growth data. [TOP/CEN]

The dollar also skidded to 119.80 yen JPY=, having been around 121.00
before the Fed's statement.

Among commodities, gold rallied to $1,173 an ounce XAU=, having
climbed from $1.145 on Wednesday.

U.S. crude CLc1 was off 34 cents at $44.32, but that followed a gain
of 3 percent on Wednesday. Brent LCOc1 was 5 cents easier at $55.86 a
barrel.

Conclusions


Massive Short-Squeeze which actually puts the markets back into Equilibrium.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1,0775
Dollar Index 98.219
Japan Yen 120.39
Swiss Franc 0.9915
Pound 1.4899
Aussie 0.7730
India Rupee 62.405
South Korea Won 1112.86
Brazil Real 3.2409
Egypt Pound 7.6287
South Africa Rand 12.0882

read more













South Sudan's Kiir shrugs off U.N. threat of sanctions
Africa


"The threat of sanctions has been waved in my eyes ... but I cannot be
threatened with that," Kiir told thousands of supporters in Juba's
Freedom Square, the site of its independence celebrations in mid-2011.

Kiir said he appreciated foreign efforts to bring peace to but said he
was "disappointed" that some of the international community had
focused on sanctions "rather than encouraging the peace building
process".

read more




The arrest of at least 26 activists and others in Kinshasa on March 15, 2015, raises serious concerns of a broader crackdown on free expression before the 2016 Democratic Republic of Congo presidential elections @HRW
Africa


“The Congolese government’s detention of pro-democracy activists is
the latest alarming sign of a crackdown on peaceful protest ahead of
next year’s presidential elections,” said Ida Sawyer, senior Africa
researcher at Human Rights Watch. “Congolese authorities should
immediately release those detained if they haven’t been charged with a
credible offense and ensure access to their lawyers and families.”

Human Rights Watch called on United Nations Security Council members,
who are due to discuss the situation in Congo on March 19, to publicly
press Congolese authorities to immediately release all those detained
for their peaceful activities and speech.

read more



Unrest spreads ahead of presidential vote, as Gabon goes bongo on Bongo @mailandguardian
Africa


STRIKES in schools, hospitals and in private business, along with a
drop in vital oil revenues, have brought turbulent times for Gabon’s
President Ali Bongo Ondimba.

Rallied by a score of trade unions in the public sector, teachers and
health workers have stayed off work since the beginning of February to
press home their wage claims, prompting the administration to dock
pay.

In weeks of rowdy negotiations, the strikers’ representatives have
made no concessions to the government of the densely forested
equatorial African country, which benefits from plentiful oil reserves
as well as tropical hardwood.

Teachers’ unions have threatened to write off the current academic
year for students if the government refuses to meet their demands for
a substantial rise in the minimum monthly salary from 80,000 CFA
francs (122 euros, $129 dollars) to 300,000 CFA francs.

“The government shot itself in the foot by deciding to cut the wages
of striking staff,” said a leader of the movement, Marcel Libama.

read more



Spicy Chicken Billionaire Springs From South Africa With Nando’s
Africa


It’s lunchtime in Cape Town, and a stream of customers are lining up
at the Nando’s restaurant on Long Street. A cashier, Zimktha Loza,
tries to take phone orders over the din of Portuguese-inspired music.

“I have regular customers every day,” Loza said. “I hear their voice
and know what they are going to order.”

Long lines at Nando’s, which opened its first eatery in South Africa
in the late 1980s, are a common sight at outlets far away from Cape
Town. The fast-growing spicy-chicken chain has 1,100 locations in 22
countries, helping make its original backer, Dick Enthoven, a
billionaire.

The son of an insurance magnate, Enthoven kick-started the business by
giving two entrepreneurs, Robbie Brozin and Fernando “Nando” Duarte, a
loan to expand their chain of chicken restaurants in the early 1990s.
Today, he owns more than 320 Nando’s outlets in the U.K.

The business accounts for half of his $1.1 billion fortune, according
to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The rest of his net worth derives
from Hollard Insurance Company Ltd., South Africa’s largest closely
held insurer. He’s never appeared on an international wealth ranking.

Nando’s Afro-Portuguese-themed, quick-service restaurants are known
for their signature peri-peri chili marinated chicken. A half bird
sells for seven pounds ($10.27) in London and 57.90 rand ($4.70) in
Cape Town.

“Nando’s has done really well because the whole concept is based
around a very simple product which everyone understands,” said Peter
Backman, managing director at Horizons, a London-based food service
consultancy. “They deliver this product imaginatively, with great fun
and at a very good price.”

The company’s playful marketing ploys, such as a “finger selfie”
campaign where people share pictures of their digits in creative
situations, play especially well with youthful customers, said
Backman. On Twitter, Nando’s is the most popular restaurant in the
U.K., according to a study by Southampton-based consultancy
eDigitalResearch, with twice as many followers as second-ranked
Domino’s Pizza Inc.

read more


Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6291
Africa


‏@PHammondMP  Mar 13 Catching up with @JohnKerry at the Egypt
investment conference. #EEDC15

pic.twitter.com/d3pxxeZ2YB

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.28% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Egypt's central bank kept the pound steady at 7.53 pounds to the
dollar at a foreign exchange auction, while the domestic currency
weakened on the black market. The finance minister said Egypt was
targeting 4.5-5 percent growth in 2015/16.

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -13.92% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan swore in eight new ministers,
shoring up his power base just 10 days before a closely fought
presidential poll.


Pioneer Foods Ltd., a South African food and beverage producer, plans
acquisitions in at least five more African countries after taking a
majority holding in Nigerian competitor Food Concepts Plc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/pioneer-foods-plans-more-african-acquisitions-after-nigeria-deal

“We’re talking to entrepreneurs for opportunities to expand our
investments in the continent” within the next five years, Thushen
Govender, the company’s head of international business, said in an
interview in Lagos, Nigeria’s commercial hub, on Tuesday. “Our focus
is on larger economies with a higher population -- for example,
Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Ghana.”
Pioneer Foods completed the $7 million purchase of a 50.1 percent
stake in Food Concepts, an operator of quick-service restaurants and
bakeries in Ghana and Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. The
acquisition will enable the Paarl-based producer of baked goods,
cereals and beverages to expand beyond South Africa, Govender said.
Pioneer Foods sees Nigerian economic growth and its large, young
population as a boost for the consumer market, he said.

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.28% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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'Corruption has opened door to al-Shabaab in Kenya' @johngithongo
Kenyan Economy


Ironically, it is these contracts that were in Kenyan parlance “eaten”
by the elite, that opened the door to al-Shabaab, the Somali terrorist
group which now poses a significant threat to the Kenyan state.

The door was opened because the kit that was supposed to safeguard the
Kenyan borders, to ensure national security, simply wasn’t in place to
interdict terrorists. “Eaten” were the contracts for a robust
immigration control system, or for basic police communication
equipment.

read more


Teams work to recover bodies trapped under the building adjacent to the US embassy which collapsed following the 1998 terrorist attack, later claimed by Al-Qaeda. Photograph: Sayyid Azim/AP
Kenyan Economy



Westgate from @CNBCAfrica Bureau #Nairobi on the 19th Floor 541 days ago

http://www.twitpic.com/deneco

Chase Bank is to raise an additional Sh2.5 billion through a private
placement to fund its fast-paced growth, the institution’s management
has disclosed.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Chase-Bank-plans-private-offering-to-raise-Sh2-5bn/-/539552/2658080/-/8km0s6/-/index.html

The bank’s capital ratios have grown thin following rapid growth
mainly from lending to small- and medium-sized enterprises.

The bank expanded its loan book by Sh16 billion or 38 per cent to
Sh57.2 billion from Sh41.2 billion in the previous year.

A private placement means the bank will get cash from investors
invited privately and not from the general public.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.03% 2015 [2.749% below a Record high
from 25th Feb]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

172.63 +0.64 +0.37%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +4.57% 2015 [snapped an 11 session Losing Streak]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,342.36 +28.52 +0.54%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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N.S.E Today


It is clear that what we witnessed in January and February of this
Year where monies tagged Destination Lagos re routed in part to
Destination Nairobi.
Recent near term weakness in Crude Oil and a very tight election [Both
Candidates are tied at 42% which is a recipe for extreme contestation]
is proving a Catalyst for further net selling of Nigerian Assets and
the re-assertion of the January February Trend.
Safaricom +13.1672% in 2015 and Kenya Commercial Bank +6.14% in 2015
both set record closing Highs.
Volume picked up speed to clock 1.447b.
The Official Closing Data has not been received as I file this but the
All Share definitely popped higher.
The Big Caps traded real muscular.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied 0.952% to close at a Fresh All Time Closing High of
15.90 and traded 4.483m shares. There were Buyers for more than twice
the volume traded during the session at the Final Bell signalling an
imminent push through 16.00. Safaricom is +13.1672% in 2015 and has
underpinned the more than 37 month Bull Market in the All-Share.

@Safaricomltd share price data here +13.1672% 2015 and at a record.

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTU%3D

Interview with @BobCollymore CEO @Safaricomltd Nov 2014 @YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVu_YJs3RDE&feature=youtu.be

Standard Group rebounded +9.46% to close at 40.50 and traded 100
shares. Standard Group reported a marginal Year on Year Revenue
Decline in FY 2014.
Nation Media Group rallied +3.24% to close at 255.00 and traded 3,400 shares.
ScanGroup rallied +4.188% to close at 49.75 and traded 178,200 shares.
ScanGroup is +9.94% in 2015.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank rallied 0.83% to close at 60.50 and this marks a
Fresh All Time Closing High. Kenya Commercial Bank missed closing at
61.00 by a whisker and the bona fides of the move to a record was
confirmed by very heavy duty volume action of 7.722m shares worth
470.784m. Kenya Commercial Bank is +6.14% in 2015 and targets my 66.00
Price Objective which I set after hearing the FY 2014 Earnings.

Kenya Commercial Bank @KCBGroup share price data and FY 2014 Earnings
Release here +6.14% 2015

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

A FY 2014 Earnings Release Interview with @KCBGroup CEO @JoshuaOigara
@Richtvafrica @YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHpctQ9xPZU&feature=youtu.be

Diamond Trust Bank firmed +0.42% to close at 241.00 and traded a
chunky 770,600 shares worth 186.749m. DTB shares are tightly held and
this is therefore a meaningful trade. DTB is +2.99% in 2015 and
reported a +9.132% acceleration in FY 2014 PAT to 5.708430b.
COOP Bank firmed +1.23% to close at 20.50 and was trading at 20.75
+2.47% at the finish Line. COOP Bank traded 4.771m shares as Investors
look through the FY Exceptional Item which suppressed  FY Earnings and
focus on Management's +30% 2015 FY Forecast.
Equity Group closed unchanged at 52.00 and traded 1.223m shares.
Standard Chartered closed at 349.00 and traded 141,900 shares.
StanChart is +4.179% in 2015 and I predict has a lot of upwards price
headroom.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL rallied a further +1.88% to close at 325.00 and traded 868,700
shares worth 282.825m. EABL is now +5.51% in 2015 and targets its 2015
High of 350.00 reached on the 19th of February.

EABL share price data here +5.51% 2015

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzQ%3D

An Interview with Charles Ireland Group MD,EABL.Half Year Results 2015
@YouTube @Diageo_news

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea0dLsWKkxg&feature=youtu.be

Mumias Sugar eased back 5.66% to close at 2.55 and traded 3.928m
shares. Some Investors evidently not keen on ponying up more cash via
the Rights Issue.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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