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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 23rd of March 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
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very much looking forward to hosting @MikeMachariaSST at #Mindspeak
this Saturday @InterConNairobi

.@BobCollymore Esquire of @Safaricomltd has kindly offered us a Live Feed

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23-MAR-2015 Crude Oil
Africa


CRUDE oil was last trading at $46.57 a barrel on the New York Metals
and Energy Exchange. In June last year, this contract was just shy of
$100 a barrel. I expect a sharp slide below $40 a barrel because there
is currently no more storage. The World is awash with the black stuff
and the Americans are also considering lifting an export ban, which
will tip the market into a tailspin.
If Iran is rehabilitated - and all the signals now point in this
direction - an additional one million barrels will be pumped into the
international markets. The only way to bring this market into
equilibrium is for massive cuts in supply, and this will not happen.
In fact, instead of pumping less, many countries are adding more in a
vain attempt to make up for the revenue shortfall.

I have written before about how the 'bear raid' on oil was a very
sophisticated strategy hatched by the erstwhile community organiser
from Chicago, USA, who morphed into the President, but also a
sophisticated 21st century oil warfare specialist.


A break below $40, and whenever oil falls, it is like a falling knife;
it's very difficult to catch it. There are some doomsday predictions
out there that a barrel could even cost $20.

Now, you do not have to be a rocket scientist to appreciate that some
countries are now at breaking point. Venezuela president Nicolas
Maduro's 'Chavez Model' survived all sorts of coup attempts, but oil
below $40 is a bullet that cannot be dodged. Vladimir Putin's Russia
will buckle more, but the Russian psyche is really resilient and the
pain threshold much higher than in other countries.
Let's come closer to home and look at the erstwhile high-fliers,
Nigeria and Angola. It is a fair question to ask: Can these
governments survive less than $40 a barrel oil?


Zambia, which is not an oil producer but heavily dependent on another
commodity called copper, has seen the kwacha collapse by 20 per cent
this year, and there is panic-like behaviour in the streets of Lusaka.

Now, turn to the price of fuel in the Kenyan economy. The World Bank
in its most recent Kenya Economic Update said: "World Bank simulations
suggest that a 30 per cent decline in the price of oil from the
baseline price of $65 per barrel could increase GDP growth by up to
1.2 percentage points in 2015."

And "between September 2014 and February 2015, crude oil prices fell
48 per cent, but the price of unleaded gasoline fell just 18 per cent
and the price of diesel just 19 per cent. Taking the lag effects of
price transmission to the domestic economy into ac- count, prices
should have fallen by 39 per cent", the bank said.


What is crystal clear then is that transmission of the lower oil price
structure into the economy is a good thing. The open question is why
this is not happening in full?

We have to look at the Energy Regulatory Commission's mandate and we
have to look at the formula. ERC's fuel pricing formula is currently
inimical to the national interest.

Home Thoughts

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nishet @nishet ยท 16h 16 hours ago
Africa


'I am Life
I am Spirit
I am Nature
I am as Big as the World
Here I Come and Here I Go' - Hannah Satchu
cc. @alykhansatchu

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Secretary of State John Kerry expresses condolences to Iran's nuclear negotiators over the death of President Hassan Rouhani's mother. PHOTOGRAPH BY BRIAN SNYDER/AFP/GETTY
Law & Politics


Near the end of his video message, Obama quoted the fourteenth-century
Persian poet Hafez on the joys of a new season, and said, "This moment
may not come again soon. I believe that our nations have an historic
opportunity to resolve this issue peacefully--an opportunity we should
not miss." Getting an agreement from the Iranians may prove easier
than winning approval in Washington.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0821
Dollar Index 97.80
Japan Yen 119.84
Swiss Franc 0.9777
Pound 1.4944
Aussie 0.7825
India Rupee 62.235
South Korea Won 1116.03
Brazil Real 3.2293
Egypt Pound 7.6296
South Africa Rand 12.0266

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Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 97.80 [Target 110.00]
World Currencies


The Bloomberg dollar index slipped 0.1 percent after losing 1.3
percent Friday to cap a slump of 2.2 percent for the week, the biggest
since October 2011. The gauge of the U.S. currency against 10 major
peers was at a decade high as recently as March 13.

read more









In January, I spent a couple of weeks in Seoul's so-called Improvement Quarter.
Emerging Markets


South Koreans do not merely brood about their physiognomy. They put
their money where their mouths--and eyes and noses--used to be. By some
estimates, the country has the highest rate of plastic surgery per
capita in the world.

Frontier Markets

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U.N. warning that South Sudan's economy is now threatened by rampant inflation as the central bank is allegedly printing money to meet a budget shortfall.
Africa


"Printing money when there is nothing to back the value of that
currency usually leads to hyperinflation," Lanzer said in the capital
Juba.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg +6.8% 2015
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 12.0258

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

The murder rate increased for a second consecutive year in the 12
months through March 2014 to 32.2 per 100,000 people

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-20/south-africa-plans-to-renegotiate-wto-pact-over-private-security

The murder rate increased for a second consecutive year in the 12
months through March 2014 to 32.2 per 100,000 people, while the number
of robberies with aggravating circumstances climbed by 13 percent,
latest police data shows.

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.6311

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +4.83% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -14.2% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Nigeria's Rating Lowered by S&P as Oil, Politics Hit Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-20/nigeria-s-rating-lowered-by-s-p-as-oil-politics-hammer-economy

Africa's largest economy, which derives 90 percent of export earnings
and 70 percent of government revenue from oil, is struggling with
Brent crude prices having halved since June. The International
Monetary Fund predicts growth of 4.8 percent this year, down from 6.3
percent in 2014. The naira has weakened 18 percent in the past six
months, the most after Zambia's kwacha among 24 African currencies
tracked by Bloomberg.

Nigeria's currency lost more than 18 percent against the dollar in the
past six months, the second-steepest decline among 24 African
currencies tracked by Bloomberg after the Zambian kwacha.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-22/nigeria-s-fall-deeper-into-junk-risks-africa-s-best-bond-rally

It touched an all-time low of 206.32 per dollar on Feb. 12, and
weakened 0.1 percent on March 20 to 199.25.

"After three years of high interest rates and nine months of low oil
prices, we think the limits to conventional monetary policy have been
reached," Cameron of Exotix said in an e-mailed note on March 19.
"Investors should therefore expect more unconventional policy
measures, as well as an exchange-rate devaluation, in the months
ahead."

@AJENews Africa's most populous nation goes to the polls on March 28th

https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/579654509657485313/photo/1

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.03% 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Manhattan or Mozambique? Maputo's billion dollar makeover @CNN
Africa


CNN)Maputo is rising.

Literally rising. Across the city, cranes stretch up alongside new
towers to house luxury hotels, corporate offices and posh condos --
all with price tags that seem more like Manhattan than Mozambique.

Billions of dollars are pouring into the country to develop offshore
gas wells. They won't start producing for a few more years, but Maputo
is already taking its first steps out of poverty with a definite
swagger.

Newfound confidence and optimism pervade the city, from small theaters
that stage Hamlet as comfortably as reggae, to a lively restaurant
scene and a renewed sense of pride in the nation's history.

When Mozambique's civil war ended in 1992, Maputo's streets had more
potholes than pavement.

Buildings were rundown, or occupied by squatters. The scent of sewage
hung in the air.

For the next decade, it wasn't clear how the country would put itself right.

The mood now is more like Southeast Asia in the early 1990s.
Mozambique has been one of the world's fastest-growing economies for
more than a decade, but it's only now starting to show.

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Africa is centre of a 'wildlife war' that the world is losing
Africa


 January Makamba, a minister and potential presidential candidate this
year, said: "The villages that surround these sanctuaries have to
somehow be taken care of in a manner that people do not feel that 'we
have to help poachers to poach so we can make a living'.

"If local communities see benefits of conservation in their
livelihoods, they can be the first defenders of wildlife. Otherwise,
if you take an approach where it's necessary to bring an army and
local communities look at them with suspicion, they're part of the
enemy - you occupy with the villages. That cannot be of benefit."

Makamba added: "The issues of poaching and logging are issues of
governance and poverty. Corruption is the centre of it. You deal with
corruption, you are halfway to dealing with the problem of poaching."

read more



@BritamEA reports FY PAT 2014 +22.666% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           26.25
Total Shares Issued:          1938415838.00
Market Capitalization:        50,883,415,748
EPS:             1.47
PE:               17.857

FY through 31st December 2014 versus through 31st December 2013

FY Gross Earned Premium 14.045772b versus 8.847166b +58.76%
FY Net earned Premium 11.792162b versus 7.751199b +52.1333%
FY Total Revenue 20.692335b versus 15.130058b +36.76%
FY Change in actuarial value of policyholder benefits 3.051301b versus 1.925007b
Net Insurance benefit and claims 8.023291b versus 4.902058b
FY Total Expenses 17.738960b versus 12.190920b
FY Profit before share of the profit of the associate 2.953375b versus
2.939138b +4.84%
FY Share of profit of the associates for using the equity method
774.678m versus 181.685m
Full Year Profit before Tax 3.728053b versus 3.120823b +19.457%
Full Year Profit after Tax 2.840268b versus 2.315448b +22.666%
FY EPS 1.47 versus 1.19 +23.52%
Final Dividend 30cents a share

Company Commentary

Comprehensive income of 6.4b +74.3%
Core business revenue of 14.7b +55.8%
Revenue for the Insurance Business in the Group of 14b +58.8%
Regional subsidiaries contribution to revenue grew 436% to 1.6b from 294m
Asset Base of 73b +55.6%

Conclusions


It would be helpful to know the configuration of the 774.678m share of
profit of the Associate.
Well managed. Last year's fracas is now behind them.
The Answer to my Question is below

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Acquisition of Real Insurance lifts Britam earnings 23pc @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


Real Insurance contributed Sh2.2 billion in premiums and fund
management fees, helping grow the group's gross revenue 55 per cent to
Sh14.7 billion from Sh9.46 billion recorded the previous year.

Real Insurance's five-month contribution to the business helped Britam
post an improved full-year net profit of Sh2.84 billion compared to
the previous year's Sh2.32 billion.

"We have been very successful in executing our strategy in 2014 and
acquiring Real Insurance was one of the successes," said Benson
Wairegi, Britam's managing director during the release of the results
on Friday.

"The completion of the Real Insurance acquisition will cement our
footprint in the region in terms of general insurance and increasing
our footprint to seven African countries." Britam had an un-easy year
after it accused former managers of its asset management wing of
fraudulently transferring Sh2.9 billion from its coffers.

The company paid Sh825 million in cash to the owners of the
36-year-old company in addition to issuing them with new shares worth
Sh550 million, bringing the total transaction value to Sh1.38 billion.

READ: Real Insurance sellers book Sh700m paper gain on Britam

The merger gave Britam access to new markers like Tanzania, Malawi and
Mozambique, in line with its strategy to grow its business in local
and regional insurance markets.

read more


KFC has said chicken served in its Kenyan outlets is "safe" but fell short of disclosing the extent of use of human antibiotics by its local suppliers @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


"We would rate KFC at a yellow alert, which means that consumers
should be extremely careful when consuming their chicken," said
Stephen Mutoro, the Consumer Federation of Kenya secretary general in
a telephone interview.

read more




Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.23% 2015

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

172.47 -1.03 -0.59%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +3.90% 2015

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,304.41 -42.15 -0.79%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

@Ma3Route the train has also left from Jamhuri for town via @Nyk50

pic.twitter.com/xtLk4n8nC1

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N.S.E Today


The ''Teflon'' Shilling was last trading at 91.848 and has
outperformed every single one of its SSA Peers in 2015.
The Shilling is -3.00% versus the Dollar Year to date and that
compares with the Zambia Kwacha for example which has lost 20% of its
value.
The Nairobi All Share eased 0.45 points to close at 172.02. The All
Share is +5.605% in 2015 but has corrected 3.092% off a record high
reached 25th of last month.
The Nairobi NSE20 retreated 38.74 points to close at 5265.67. The
NSE20 is +3.755% in 2015 but has corrected 234 points since closing at
a 7 year High on March 2nd of this month.
Equity Turnover was 562.129m.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed 0.3154% to close at 15.90 and traded shares as high
as 16.00 +0.95% during the session. Safaricom is +13.167% in 2015 and
5cents off a record closing High of 15.95 reached on the 12th of this
Month. Safaricom had more than 2.5 Buyers for every Seller and is
girding itself to punch through 16.00.

Uchumi rallied +5.97% from a very oversold position to close at 10.65
and was trading at 11.00 +9.45% session highs at the closing Bell.
Uchumi traded 596,700 shares.

Kenya Airways weather a @Twitter and Blog Storm and traded resilient
in the circumstances to ease a marginal 0.56% to close at 8.90 and
traded 42,700 shares. Todays Price action is signalling those that
wished to sell have long sold which is a constructive Signal in a
counterintuitive way.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


BRITAM EA reported FY 2014 Earnings where FY Revenue ratcheted +36.76%
higher to 20.692335b and FY Profit before share of the profit of the
associate rose +4.84% to 2.953375b. BRITAM EA's share of profit of the
associates surged +326% to 774.678 which juiced FY PAT 2014 to
+22.666%. Real Insurance's five-month contribution to the business
helped Britampost an improved full-year net profit of Sh2.84 billion
compared to the previous year's Sh2.32 billion. BRITAM EA is paying a
Final FY Dividend of 30cents a share. Regional subsidiaries
contribution to revenue grew 436% to 1.6b from 294m as per the
accompanying commentary. BRITAM EA firmed 0.95% to close at 26.50 and
traded 1.012m shares. BRITAM EA is -10.92% in 2015.
Jubilee Holdings firmed 0.73% to close at 550.00 and within 0.181% of
an all time closing High reached 17th through 19th of this month.
Jubilee has rallied +22.222% Year to date.
CIC Insurance was a strong feature and rallied +4.519% to close at
9.25 and traded 529,400 shares.

Kenya Commercial Bank ticked 0.83% easier and off a record closing
High to close at 60.00 and traded 2.444m shares worth 146.752m. Kenya
Commercial Bank is +5.26% in 2015 and is pointed at 66.00.
Equity Group retreated 3.431% to close at 49.25 and traded 1.041m
shares worth 51.387m. Equity Group is in fact now -1.5% Year to date.
I&M Bank surged +7.5% to close at 129.00 and traded 254,000 shares.
I&M is +4.87% Year to date and someone must be anticipating good FY
2014 Earnings.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL firmed 0.31% to close at 325.00 and traded 2nd at the Exchange
with 326,300 shares worth 106.093m. EABL has rallied 8.333% in March
and once again targets its 2015 closing High of 350.00 reached on the
19th of last month.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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