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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 25th of March 2015
 
Morning
Africa

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Mark Rothko
Africa


very much looking forward to hosting @MikeMachariaSST at #Mindspeak
this Saturday @InterConNairobi

@BobCollymore Esquire of @Safaricomltd has kindly offered us a Live Feed

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16-MAR-2015 #Mindspeak Caravan goes to Dar and the January Man @JMakamba
Africa


Mindspeak is a monthly event that I organise and whose inspira- tion
was an inscription written as you enter the Mevlana's Mausoleum in
faraway Konya in Turkey, which said:

"Come, come, whoever you are. Wanderer, worshiper, lover of leaving.
It doesn't matter. Ours is not a caravan of despair. Come, even if you
have broken your vows a thousand times. Come, yet again, come, come."
Rumi

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@alykhansatchu Sunset #ThisisNairobi 6.40
Africa


"Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to
live." -- Don DeLillo, Cosmopolis

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banksy @BanksyOfficiaI Mar 24
Africa


"I don't want your candor. I want your soul in a silver thimble." --
Don DeLillo, Valparaiso

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25-AUG-2014 His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370.
Law & Politics


Since then planes have been falling out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off took me back to Don Delillo

''"We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.''

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This image explores the sincerity of North Korean mourning and the role of traffic wardens in society. Gianluca Spezza
Law & Politics


"...it is imperative that no Eurasian challenger (to the U.S.) emerges
capable of dominating Eurasia and thus also of challenging America"
Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard, 1997

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/24/the-new-chinese-dream/

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.09231 The euro was little changed at $1.0925 EUR= after
slipping from an overnight peak of $1.1029 briefly reached on the
upbeat euro zone data.
Dollar Index 97.18 The dollar index last stood at 97.152 .DXY. On
Tuesday it had set a two-week low of 96.387, down roughly 4 percent
from a near 12-year high of 100.39 struck in mid-March.
Japan Yen 119.649 U.S. currency was still some distance from an
eight-year peak of 122.04 scaled two weeks ago
Swiss Franc 0.9638
Pound 1.4857
Aussie 0.7870
India Rupee 62.285
South Korea Won 1101.91
Brazil Real 3.14
Egypt Pound 7.6329
South Africa Rand 11.8154

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"The Fed is data-dependant but it's important that we see data confirming that weakness in January and February was temporary. Once such data comes out, speculation of a rate hike as early as June will resurface."
World Currencies


The Bloomberg dollar index, which tracks the greenback against 10 of
its most-traded peers, has retreated 3 percent since March 13, when it
reached a more-than 10-year high of 1,222.12. The gauge increased for
eight months through February, the longest streak in data going back
to 2005, and is still up more than 1 percent in March.

"Post-FOMC dollar selling still lingers but there is no change in the
trend for a stronger dollar," Kazuo Shirai, a Los Angeles-based trader
at MUFG Union Bank NA, said by phone. "Given the Fed's emphasis on
data dependence, volatility will heighten as markets will become
sensitive to individual data."

read more


Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.09224
World Currencies


The euro hit a 12-year low below $1.05 against the dollar at the start
of last week only to jump back to $1.10 on Wednesday - its biggest
one-day rise in six years

"The price action is consistent with our expectation that longer-term
oriented market participants will be keen to buy USD above $1.10 and
we suspect that underlying flows from euro zone investors will
continue to limit scope for EUR rallies," analysts at BNP Paribas
wrote in a note to clients.

read more





Dollar's Rise Stings Africa WSJ [Subscriber]
Africa


KAMPALA, Uganda--The consequences of a soaring U.S. dollar are
trickling down to empty shelves at Quality Supermarkets in Kampala,
where clerks turn away shoppers seeking clothes and backpacks the
store can't afford to import.

As Uganda's shilling has hit a record low against the dollar, Quality
Supermarkets and its competitors have struggled to find enough U.S.
dollars to buy the packaged foods and manufactured goods they import
from abroad.


"We are waiting for new arrivals, but they are taking long," said
Emily Orishaba, a 25-year-old shop attendant pointing at empty
shelves. "We are worried our customers may run away."

Central bankers' efforts to boost growth in Europe and Asia are
driving up the dollar's value against currencies ranging from the euro
to the Indonesian rupiah, as higher interest rates in the U.S.--and
expected increases as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise
rates--attract investors seeking potentially bigger returns. African
currencies are caught in the riptide, hurting companies that rely on
dollars to buy foreign goods.


That is threatening to exacerbate trade deficits that were already
climbing, as consumer demand outpaces manufacturing. Hundreds of
millions of people in what the African Development Bank describes as a
nascent consumer class have helped diversify Africa's economy away
from mining and oil drilling. But consumers' hunger for foreign
electronics, clothes and food is also underpinning demand for dollars
to buy these goods, pushing up trade deficits. As African currencies
slump, those deficits could continue to widen.

Moody's Investors Service expects Uganda's current-account deficit--the
value of goods and services it imports compared with its exports--to
nearly double to 9% of gross domestic product this year from 5.3% last
year.

Along with Uganda's shilling, Angola's kwanza and Zambia's kwacha hit
record lows against the dollar in March. Anxiety ahead of elections
Saturday in Nigeria pushed the naira to an all-time nadir in February.
South Africa's rand is trading at 13-year lows against the greenback.


Economists said African countries didn't do enough to clean up their
finances when a global hunt for yields made African currencies more
attractive. Now, their finances are deteriorating sharply as dollars
flow back toward the U.S.

"Each and every one of these countries is facing domestic issues on
top of the global sentiment," said Ridle Markus, an Africa strategist
at Barclays PLC in Johannesburg. "It's a very bearish outlook for
African currencies."

Since January, Portuguese airline Transportes Aereos Portugueses SGPS
SA has stopped selling tickets for most routes in Angola for fear it
wouldn't be able to convert the rapidly weakening kwanza into dollars.
Would-be travelers who can't pay with dollars abroad have to find
another carrier.


The naira's slide has sapped a third of the dollar-denominated value
that Nigerian equipment importer Menco Ltd. hoped to bank from recent
sales of solar lighting systems and three-wheeled auto rickshaws. "We
are losing serious money," said Menco's founder, Rajan Menon.

Zambia's only oil refiner, Indeni Petroleum Refinery Co. Ltd., closed
in March after the government struggled to find enough dollars to pay
for $30 million in crude. Now, lines stretch for blocks at gas
stations in the capital, Lusaka, angering drivers and raising pressure
on President Edgar Lungu's government two months after tense
elections.


Zambia and the other African countries where currencies have severely
slumped are among the continent's strongest economies, and their
travails could undermine broader growth in the region.

Currency tumult and low commodity prices could cut sub-Saharan
Africa's growth this year to 3.7%, London-based research firm Capital
Economics forecast this month, from about 5% in recent years.

In Uganda, the national electricity distributor can't find enough
dollars to make long-overdue upgrades to power lines and transformers.
Meanwhile, hardware store owner Godfrey Mugisha has interrupted the
monthly trips he usually takes to China to buy ceramic tiles.

"When the exchange rate started rising rapidly in January, we
increased prices," said the 32-year-old owner of four Sonic hardware
stores around Kampala. Today, he has to pay 296 million shillings for
a $100,000 container of tiles, up from 275 million shillings several
months ago.

"It's going to be the toughest year this century," said John Ashbourne
of Capital Economics.

At the Quality Supermarkets store in Kampala this week, Ms. Orishaba,
the sales attendant, apologized to customers frustrated that there
weren't any bluejeans to buy. Behind her, a colleague dusted the empty
store shelves.

"We have been promising customers for many days now," she said. "It's
disappointing."

Conclusions

 The Fed unleashed a ''golden flood of Liquidity'' which washed up as
far as Africa's shores. The Commodity Price Rally underpinned Nigeria
and Angola and other Oil Producers, well at least until the erstwhile
Community Organiser turned c21st Oil War Specialist cut the legs from
underneath the Price of Oil. The only reason that the Naira is not at
least 25% lower is because the Central Bank are dropping billions in a
Finger in the Dyke strategy and have created an artificial market in
the currency. The Lesson is that these Governments rested on their
Laurels in the good times and they are in deep deep trouble now from
Luanda to Abuja. Interestingly, Investors have become more discerning.
The Kenya Shilling for example is down only 3% against the Dollar Year
to date. The Rising Tide once floated all boats but today the tide has
receded and we are dealing with Policy Makers who are so far behind
the Curve they cannot find it.
Aly-Khan Satchu
Nairobi

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Africa's Internet penetration will reach 50 percent by 2025 and there are expected to be 360 million smartphones on the continent by then, roughly double the number in the United States currently, Mckinsey Consultants data shows.
Africa


Africa had 16 percent Internet penetration and 67 million smartphones in 2013.


This growth is attracting interest from Internet companies such as
Google, Facebook and Wikipedia, which are striking deals with service
providers such as Vodacom, MTN, Bharti Airtel and Safaricom to offer
users free, or 'zero-rated' access to their sites and services.

Facebook, through its Internet.org program, offers a stripped-down
version of its social network and some other sites for free in what it
says is an exercise to "connect the two thirds of the world that
doesn't have Internet access".

Google, in partnership with Kenyan mobile phone firm Safaricom, is
rolling out its "free zone" in Kenya, where email and the Internet are
available with no data charges, providing users stay within Google
apps.

Google has said its "free zone" is aimed at a billion people without
the Internet in the developing world.

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Nigeria's central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at a record high in the Monetary Policy Committee's final meeting before the March 28 elections.
Africa


The MPC left the policy rate at 13 percent, Governor Godwin Emefiele
told reporters in the capital, Abuja. That was in line with the
forecasts of all 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, is struggling to deal with a
50 percent drop in the price of crude since June, sales of which bring
in more than two-thirds of government revenue. Policy makers raised
the interest rate by 1 percentage point on Nov. 25, the first increase
in three years, and devalued the naira as foreign-currency reserves
slumped.

"The committee expressed concern about the outlook for growth, which
has moderated partly due to the effects of low oil prices, naira
exchange-rate depreciation and election-related concerns," Emefiele
said. The bank is also concerned about accelerating inflation, he
said.

Business sentiment is expected to rise and the economic situation will
probably improve once the election is over, he said.

The naira has weakened 5.4 percent against the dollar since the last
MPC meeting in January, adding to pressure on inflation, which
accelerated for a third month to 8.4 percent in February. The currency
traded 0.4 percent weaker at 199.75 per dollar by 3:20 p.m. in Lagos,
the commercial capital.

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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -2.83% 2015
Africa


Malick Sidibe, Un Yeye en Position, 1963. Photograph: The Auction Room

http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2015/mar/25/african-contemporary-art-in-pictures#img-2

Malick Sidibe, Un Yeye en Position, 1963. Sidibé's photographs have
gained cult status since the 1960s, and his work is now held in some
of the world's most prestigious museum collections. In 2007 he was
awarded the Venice Biennale's Golden Lion lifetime achievement award.
He continues to live and work in Bamako, Mali.
Photograph: The Auction Room

Maïmouna Guerresi's Akbar from the series 'The Giants', 2010.
Guerresi Photograph: The Auction Room

http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2015/mar/25/african-contemporary-art-in-pictures#img-5

Maïmouna Guerresi's Akbar from the series 'The Giants', 2010. Guerresi
is an Italian-born multimedia artist working with photography,
sculpture, video and installation, whose work explores psychological,
cultural, and political questions.
Photograph: The Auction Room

read more





Jubilee Holdings share price date here +24.222% in 2015 and at a record
Kenyan Economy


Jubilee eyes buy-outs to increase market share

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/Jubilee-eyes-buy-outs-to-increase-market-share/-/996/2664684/-/vf0c8z/-/index.html

Jubilee Holdings Ltd is seeking to expand its business through buying
out other insurance companies as competition in the sector hots up.

Jubilee Group chairman Nizar Juma said the interest foreign companies
have shown in the sector had led to five mergers in the last one year
that required firms to reorient their businesses.

The insurer last year registered a 24 per cent increase in its
after-tax profits to Sh3.1 billion. Gross revenue rose by 37 per cent
to Sh24.8 billion.

"For a number of years, we have been the number one insurer in East
Africa, leading the markets in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania as well as
holding the top position in short-term and medical insurance; We are
now delighted to also be the number one long-term insurer in Kenya for
the first time. We are also pleased to be able to announce that for
the first time, our turnover figures have topped Sh30 billion" Mr Juma
said yesterday.

He attributed this to the insurer's business strategy, which is
designed around innovation and technology. The company has also
introduced new products.

He said the value of its share price had increased from Sh310 to Sh555
in the 12-month period, with earnings per share going up by 26 per
cent.

"The aim is to remain number one, particularly in Kenya, where mergers
and acquisitions have been happening. There (have been) about five
mergers in the last one year but we managed to remain number one. We
are looking for companies to acquire in the country and region because
insurance is dynamic," he said.

Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros

http://j.mp/5jDOot

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +6.29% 2015

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

172.57 +0.55 +0.32%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg +2.777% 2015

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

5,254.60 -11.07 -0.21%

Nairobi NSE20 retreated 11.07 points to close at 5254.60 and has
retreated 245 points since closing at a more than 7 year high at the
beginning of the month.

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


Jim Chuchu's Pagans XI: Collectors, 2014. Photograph: The Auction Room
Kenyan Economy


Jim Chuchu's Pagans XI: Collectors, 2014. This series by Kenya's
rising talent reconstructs anonymous African deities as a way to
explore pre-colonial religious practices in Africa.
Photograph: The Auction Room

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


We received a string of FY 2014 Earnings Releases today.
The Nairobi aLL share firmed 0.48 points to close at 173.05 with
Safaricom [bell weather and largest stock by market Cap] closing at a
Fresh Record of 16.10.
The Nairobi NSE20 finally snapped a long running losing streak to turn
20.50 points higher to close at 5275.10.
Equity Turnover was 651.678m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Kakuzi which has rallied +55.55% through todays close at 280 and
unchanged released FY 2014 Earnings where FY Sales surged +22.07% to
1.6899b and Full Year Profit after Tax declined a marginal 2.922%.
Kakuzi maintained its Dividend at 3.75 a share. The Company cited
Avocados with ''increased volumes were the significant contributor to
profit ...mitigating very poor prices of Tea in 2014'' These were more
than creditable results given the extreme weakness seen in Tea Prices
in 2014. Kakuzi is valued on an elevated PE of 34.27 because
shareholders are pricing in the Real Estate Arbitrage, which is a
situation that pertains to All the Agricultural companies as they all
carry their Land Value on the balance sheet at cost.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom rallied +0.625% to close at a Fresh Record Closing High of
16.10. Safaricom traded shares as high as 16.25 +2.56% during the
session and that is an all time High Trade Print since Listing.
Safaricom traded 3.172m shares worth 51.169m. Safaricom had 12 Buyers
for Every Seller at the Finish line which is an extreme Imbalance and
signals that Safaricom whilst plus a blistering +14.59% in 2015 is
headed to at least 16.50 on this Bull Surge.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank firmed 0.833% to close at 60.50 and match a
record High. Kenya Commercial Bank traded 1.041m shares and Buyers
outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 5 versus 1 signalling Kenya Commercial
Bank will set a Fresh Record High as early as tomorrow's session.

Jubilee Insurance rallied a further 1.97% to close at a record High of
570.00 for the second consecutive session. Jubilee was lightly traded
with just 1,600 shares traded. Jubilee has surged +26.666% and set a
series of All Time Highs in 2015. Jubilee released FY 2014 Earnings
where FY 2014 Profit before Tax ratcheted 25% higher, FY Gross Revenue
ramped 37% higher and Jubilee further juiced the Release by announcing
a Bonus Issue of 1 share for every 10 held. Mr. Juma noted the recent
flurry of acquisition activity in the Sector and announced that
Jubilee might be a Player [Acquirer].



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenolKobil surged 7.4866% to close at 10.05 and on heavy volume action
of 4.545m shares worth 45.861m. Todays Price Surge was in reaction to
Kenolkobil's Full Year Earnings Release which beat the Street's best
estimates. KenolKobil announced a +95.42% improvement in FY Profit
after Tax and hiked the Full Year Dividend +100%.

In the accompanying Commentary KenolKobil struck a very upbeat note;

''Management is confident in the the Group's strength to continue
significant improvement in 2015, with the first quarter already
delivering strong expected results with significantly lower net
borrowings.''

There is plenty more headroom for the Price, these were strong numbers.

ARM Cement released FY 2014 Earnings where FY 2014 PAT accelerated
+10.71% and FY EPS expanded +9.85%. ARM maintained the Dividend at an
unchanged 60 cents a share and in their accompanying commentary spoke
to a gross margin improvement of 8% and said that the ''Group is
confident about the outlook for 2015.''  ARM is surfing a ''cement
markets [which] continue[s] to grow at double digits with significant
demand from the infrastructure segment'' ARM doubled the manufacturing
capacity for Mavuno Fertilisers. I thought  these were promising
results. The Cement Demand Curve remains muscular and ARM is well
placed. ARM eased 50cents to close at 83.50 and traded 89,800 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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