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Tuesday 01st of December 2015
 
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Macro Thoughts

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IMF Approves Reserve-Currency Status for China's Yuan
Africa


China's currency to have 10.92% weighting, topping yen, pound

Lagarde says China's currency meets `freely usable' standard

The IMF will add the yuan to its basket of reserve currencies, an
international stamp of approval of the strides China has made
integrating into a global economic system dominated for decades by the
U.S., Europe and Japan.

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board, which represents
the fund’s 188 member nations, decided the yuan meets the standard of
being “freely usable” and will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in
its Special Drawing Rights basket, the organization said Monday in a
statement. Approval was expected after IMF Managing Director Christine
Lagarde announced Nov. 13 that her staff recommended inclusion, a
position she supported.

It’s the first change in the SDR’s currency composition since 1999,
when the euro replaced the deutsche mark and French franc.

read more






Elephant
Africa


“I’d like to go out in the front yard and shout something. “None of
this is worth it!” That’s what I’d like people to hear.” ― Raymond
Carver, Elephant And Other Stories

read more





To see China’s evolving foreign policy, look to Africa @Business
Law & Politics


To see China’s evolving foreign policy, look to Africa, where a desire
to protect economic investment is leading to a revision of the
country’s hands-off approach to the internal affairs of other nations.

Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a five-day African visit on
Tuesday that he’ll use to showcase China’s expanding role as a
protector of regional security, as well as a provider of
infrastructure and consumer of resources. China has pledged $100
million of military aid for the African Union, sent an infantry
battalion to support peacekeeping efforts in South Sudan and deployed
frigates to fight piracy off the Somali coast, leading the country to
consider building its first overseas naval resupply station in
Djibouti.

“Such initiatives are a clear departure from Beijing’s aversion to
military or security intervention in Africa,” Lyle Morris, a project
associate at the RAND Corp., said, citing in particular the military
assistance Xi pledged in September. "The announcement suggests a
rethinking of Chinese priorities on the continent, and marks a
recognition that China’s participation in conflict resolution will be
an unavoidable byproduct of increased Chinese engagement."

Xi is expected to cast China’s security role in Africa as limited and
within the framework of international organizations. “In the long run,
the international community and the United Nations should support
African countries in increasing their own capacity in keeping peace
and stability so that African issues can be addressed in an African
way,” he told the UN General Assembly in September.

While China is Africa’s biggest trading partner, with two-way flows
exceeding $220 billion last year, the pace of investment has slowed.

Xi will propose "new thoughts, new policies and new ideas" for
developing ties with Africa, Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters
Thursday. He’s expected to discuss plans to build a high-speed rail
network in Nigeria and regional aviation links and highways, according
to China’s official Xinhua News Agency.

“China is approaching Africa a little differently than it used to,”
Shinn said. “It’s not reached the point yet where you could say they
have abandoned the principle of non-interference, but it certainly has
reached the point of a redefinition of what non-interference means.”

read more




Putin: Turkey shot down jet to protect ISIL oil supply
Law & Politics


"We have every reason to think that the decision to shoot down our
plane was dictated by the desire to protect the oil supply lines to
Turkish territory," Putin said during a news conference on Monday on
the fringes of UN climate talks near Paris.

"We have received additional information which unfortunately confirms
that this oil, produced in areas controlled by [ISIL] and other
terrorist organisations, is transported on an industrial scale to
Turkey."

Conclusions

Putin is correct in this regard.

read more







Pope @Pontifex says fundamentalism is 'disease of all religions'
Law & Politics


Pope Francis said fundamentalism is "a disease of all religions",
including the Roman Catholic Church, as he returned from a
three-nation tour of Africa in which he preached reconciliation and
hope.

"Fundamentalism is always a tragedy. It is not religious, it lacks
God, it is idolatrous," the Argentine pontiff told journalists on the
plane back from the Central African Republic.

"We Catholics, we have a few, even many fundamentalists. They believe
they know absolute truth and corrupt others," he said, adding: "I can
say this because this is my Church."

In extraordinary scenes before he held a papal mass at the capital's
Barthelemy Boganda stadium, a group of Muslim rebels from the PK5 area
leapt out of two pickup trucks, all wearing T-shirts bearing the
pope's image.

As they pushed through the crowd in an area where Muslims usually do
not dare to venture, people cheered and shouted: "It's over".

"We thought the whole world had abandoned us, but not him. He loves us
Muslims too," said Idi Bohari, an elderly man.

Conclusions

He is a Star.

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I doubt if there are 700 active “moderate” foot soldiers in Syria – and I am being very generous Robert Fisk
Law & Politics


At one point last week, one of Cameron’s satraps was even referring to
this phantom army as “ground troops”. I doubt if there are 700 active
“moderate” foot soldiers in Syria – and I am being very generous, for
the figure may be nearer 70 – let alone 70,000. And the Syrian Kurds
are not going to conquer Isis for us; they’re too busy trying to
survive the assaults of our Turkish allies. Besides, aren’t the
“moderates” supposed to be the folk who don’t carry weapons at all?
Who’s ever heard before of a “moderate” with a Kalashnikov?

The Syrian regime’s army – who really are ground troops and who never
worried about the “moderate” rebels because they always ran away – are
the only regular force deployed in Syria. And thanks to Vladimir Putin
rather than PR Dave, they’re beginning to win back territory. Yet
after losing at least 60,000 soldiers – killed largely by Isis and the
al-Nusra Front – the Syrian army would be hard put to fight off an
assault on Damascus by Dave Cameron’s 70,000 “moderates”. If this
ghost army existed, it would already have captured Damascus and hurled
Bashar al-Assad from power.

read more


Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0576
Dollar Index 100.10
Japan Yen 122.95
Swiss Franc 1.0274
Pound 1.5082
Aussie 0.7262
India Rupee 66.505
South Korea Won 1158.27
Brazil Real 3.8687
Egypt Pound 7.8301
South Africa Rand 14.4068

2Yr US yields post biggest monthly rise since March 2010 on
expected turnaround in interest rates by Fed
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/671446603648139264

underpinning the Dollar.

read more





Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Holger Zschaepitz ‏Price for Carbon near 2y highs ahead of #COP21Paris.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/671320160045809664

read more









Kabore was the prime minister and speaker of parliament under Compaore.
Africa


The Independent National Electoral Commission said on Tuesday morning
that results showed that Kabore, from the Movement of People for
Progress party, won 53.5 percent of the vote, just enough to secure a
first round victory.

Kabore, 58, will now replace the transitional government put in place
after Blaise Compaore, Burkina Faso's longtime leader, was toppled in
a popular uprising in October 2014.

read more




Standard Bank to pay $32.6m over Tanzania bribery scandal
Africa


The settlement in London relates to the banking division’s work in
2012-13 on a $600m private placement of sovereign debt to finance
electricity, water and other infrastructure work in Tanzania, part of
the government’s five-year development plan.

The original fee on the capital-raising proposed by the then London
office of Standard Bank, and a local sister office in Tanzania, was
1.4%, but plans for the transaction stalled.

Later, the fee was raised to 2.4%, and the former Standard Bank units
agreed to pay 1% to a local company in Tanzania, Enterprise Growth
Market Advisors Ltd.

The chairman of EGMA, and one of three shareholders, was Harry
Kitilya, who was also head of the government tax agency, the Tanzania
Revenue Authority.

As a result of the new fee arrangements, $6m was paid to a new bank
account in the name of EGMA in March 2013. Within 10 days, the account
had been almost entirely emptied after four cash withdrawals of
between $1.17m and $1.45m. The proceeds have not been traced.

Standard Bank bosses eventually became concerned and after an internal
investigation the case was reported to the SFO.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.69% 2015
Africa


The rand extended losses against the dollar to an all-time low of
14.4600 from 14.3800 after release of the data.
http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKBN0TJ1AO20151130

The trade gap for Africa's most industrialised economy was at 21.39
billion rand ($1.5 billion) in October, the South African Revenue
Service (SARS) said, up sharply from a revised 1.26 billion rand in
September.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a shortfall of just 4.9 billion rand.

The rand extended losses against the dollar to an all-time low of
14.4600 from 14.3800 after release of the data.

Exports decreased by 6 percent to 86.35 billion rand, while imports
jumped by 15.7 percent to 107.74 billion rand on a month-on-month
basis, SARS said.

Exports of precious metals and stones, vegetable products, mineral
products and vehicle and transport equipment fell significantly during
October.

read more



Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.8301
Africa


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -28.79% 2015 [2 year Lows]
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

6,356.65 -121.08 -1.87%

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index fell 1.2 percent to
27,294.27 at 1:36 p.m. in Lagos, the lowest on a closing basis since
Dec. 2012.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/nigeria-s-stocks-fall-to-three-year-low-as-foreigners-exit

The gauge has declined on 18 out of 21 trading days in November and is
headed for a monthly drop of 6.5 percent.

The naira was unchanged at 199.05 per dollar and has been all but
fixed at 198-199 since early March. Forward prices suggest it will
weaken 18 percent to 242.5 in a year.

Nigeria is reeling from crude prices that have plunged 57 percent
since June 2014. Growth will fall to 3.2 percent this year from 6.3
percent in 2014, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That
would be the slowest pace since 1999. Annual inflation was 9.3 percent
in October, higher than the central bank’s target of 6 to 9 percent.

read more



Sunil Vaswani's Stallion Group makes waves in Africa
Africa


The stunning mansion in Dubai’s Emirates Hills gated community is
crammed with countless frills, some customary, some not. The eastern
European shepherd guard dogs, the liveried staff and the line-up of
shiny Ferraris, Rolls-Royces, Porsches and Lamborghinis in the indoor
lot set the tone. Then there is the exotic-bird-filled aviary, the
bowling alley, the nightclub, the automatic car wash, the outdoor
singing bar frequented by the likes of Lionel Richie and, for the
deepest of pockets, a basement casino. The tables come alive when
Sunil Vaswani, chairman of $3.72 billion (revenues) Stallion Group,
headquartered nearby, hosts his famed soirees.

Stallion holds considerable sway in Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria.
There it has the largest cold-storage facilities, with capacity of
130,000 metric tonnes and full backup power, phenomenal infrastructure
in power-and cold-chain-deficient sub-Saharan Africa. It is the
largest frozen-fish distributor and a rice market leader in Nigeria
and its region, importing in bulk from Asia, bagging and branding for
market. Last year Stallion imported a fifth of Nigeria’s rice
consumption. It is the sole distributor for global automakers like
Nissan in Nigeria and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In December
Nigeria’s government cited Stallion, alongside the sugar and cement
operation owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, as the top two
conglomerates contributing to its economic development.

read more



Kenya's inflation rose to 7.32 percent year-on-year in November from 6.72 percent the previous month, driven by a jump in food prices, the statistics office said on Monday.
Kenyan Economy


The food and non-alcoholic drinks index also increased by 1.08 percent
between the months of October and November, the Kenya National Bureau
of Statistics said in a statement.

"This ... was a result of a rise in prices of several food items which
outweighed the decreases," the bureau said.

Conclusions

That would be the top but for the Excise duty Increases

read more


Water, beer, car prices up as new taxes take effect @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


Treasury secretary Henry Rotich has indicated in a gazette notice that
the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) will start collecting the taxes from
Tuesday.

Beer is up Sh30 per litre, kerosene by Sh5.75 a litre, bottled water
up by Sh7 a litre, juice is up Sh10 a litre while a charge of Sh10,000
will apply on motorcycles.

“In exercise of the powers conferred by section 1 of the Excise Duty
Act, the Cabinet secretary for the National Treasury appoints December
1, 2015 to be the date the Act shall come into operation,” said Mr
Rotich in the gazette notice.

The government expects to raise an additional Sh25 billion from the
new levies that Mr Rotich introduced in June to help fund his Sh2.1
trillion budget.

read more


Panorama found British American Tobacco illegally paid politicians and civil servants in countries in East Africa.
Kenyan Economy


A BBC investigation has uncovered evidence of bribery at one of the
UK's biggest companies.
Panorama found British American Tobacco illegally paid politicians and
civil servants in countries in East Africa.
The payments were revealed when a whistleblower shared hundreds of
secret documents.
BAT told the BBC: "The truth is that we do not and will not tolerate
corruption, no matter where it takes place."
Paul Hopkins, who worked for BAT, a British company, in Kenya for 13
years, said he had begun paying bribes after being told it was the
cost of doing business in Africa.
"BAT is bribing people, and I'm facilitating it," he said.
"The reality is if... they have to break the rules, they will break the rules."

read more


Moses Wetang'ula named in BAT mega bribery scheme The Star
Kenyan Economy


Bungoma Senator Moses Wetangula has been mentioned in a BBC
investigation into bribery claims at British American Tobacco.

According to BBC's Panorama programme, Wetang'ula as Trade minister in
2012 was one of the MPs who allegedly received 'favors' from BAT.

In July 2012, Adell-Owino, BAT lobbyist, requested the purchase of a
business class ticket to London for Wetang'ula.

The email said he would be "hosted at Globe House" which is BAT's
London headquarters.

Adell-Owino asked that the transaction should be "paperless" and there
should be "no receipts if any in his (Wetang'ula) name.”

Wetang'ula however, denied knowledge of the emails when contacted by
Panorama. Wetangu'la told BBC he was "shocked" and "upset" and would
take legal action against anybody circulating "such a crude rumor"
against him.

"I did not receive any ticket or any money. I never had dealings with
BAT," he said.

Adell-Owino "categorically denied" involvement in bribery and said BAT
"mistakenly believed" the payments were bribes.

read more


BAT did not trade yesterday share price data here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  10/-
Closing Price:           785.00
Total Shares Issued:          100000000.00
Market Capitalization:        78,500,000,000
EPS:             42.55
PE:                 18.449

read more










 
 
N.S.E Today


The Volume Meter only clocked 368.745m signalling the onset of the
Christmas Season.
The Nairobi All Share eked out a 0.01 point gain to close at 143.48.
The Nairobi NSE20 which has been yo-yoing above and below the key
4,000 Level lost its grip on that Level to close 38.01 points lower at
3978.17



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


A Demand versus Supply Imbalance of 17 Buyers for every 2 Sellers
lifted Safaricom's share price 0.64% to close at 15.65 and traded
4.234m shares. Safaricom remains +9.05% since 5th November and has
done the heavy-lifting at the Nairobi Securities Exchange in the month
of November.

Nation Media which has been on a roll of late firmed a further +2.58%
to close at 159.00 and traded 55,900 shares.

TPS Serena Hotels firmed +3.64% to close at 28.5 and traded 8,400 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank rebounded +1.89% to close at 40.50 and traded
118,500 shares. There is extreme Buy Side Demand below 40.00.
CFC StanBic edged +0.59% higher to close at 84.50 and on good volume
of 354,400 shares.

Housing Finance rallied +3.52% to close at 22.00 and traded 39,600 shares.

Kenya Re closed unchanged at 21.75 and traded heavy duty volume of
3.247m shares worth 70.612m. Kenya Re has bucked the Trend and has
rallied +21.7% in 2015.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


The Flag-Ship BBC programme Panorama found that BAT ''British American
Tobacco
illegally paid politicians and civil servants in countries in
East Africa. The payments were revealed when a whistleblower shared
hundreds of secret documents''  BAT eased -0.127% to close at 784.00
and traded 90,100 shares worth 70.72m, which is a resilient outcome in
the circumstances. BAT has retreated -9.36% on a Total Return Basis in
2015.

BAT share price data here -9.36% Total Return Basis in 2015

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Mjk%3D

Atlas Development and Support Services Limited, which is the worst
performing counter at the Securities Exchange in 2015 falling an
eye-popping 18.6% today to close at an All-Time Low of 1.75. Atlas has
slumped -85.477% in 2015. Todays Slump of 18.6% was triggered by  an
Official announcement issued via the Securities Exchange, pre-market
Opening.

''Atlas (AIM, NSE: ADSS) announces that it has taken the decision to
place its Kenyan subsidiaries into liquidation by way of a Creditors
Voluntary Liquidation. The liquidation is only in relation to the
Company’s Kenyan subsidiaries and not the holding company, which is
the listed entity. In view of this, it is important to note that the
Company will remain listed in Kenya and is committed to advancing its
other subsidiaries, which remain operational. The downturn in the oil
and gas industry, market adjustments and the failure of certain key
clients to settle debts, together with increasing creditor pressure
has led to the decision to close Kenyan operations and focus all of
the Company’s administrative functions and activities in Ethiopia for
the time being''

Atlas Development and Support Services Limited Official Release dated
1st December 2015

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Atlas%20Development%20&%20Support%20Services%20Limited-%20Public%20Announcement.pdf

Atlas Development and Support Services Limited -85.477% in 2015 share data here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=Njg%3D



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2015
 
 
 
 
 
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