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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 27th of September 2016
 
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Macro Thoughts

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Clinton at one point accused Trump of 'living in your own reality'. Photograph: Lucas Jackson/Reuters
Law & Politics


Donald Trump’s freewheeling approach spun wildly out of control in the
first presidential debate as he was forced on the defensive during a
chaotic clash with Hillary Clinton.

Goaded by Clinton and pressed hard by moderator Lester Holt, the
Republican nominee angrily defended his record against charges of
racism, sexism and tax avoidance for much of the 90-minute clash at
Hofstra University, outside New York.

“He came in unprepared and what we saw was kind of a meltdown,” said
@HillaryClinton campaign chairman @johnpodesta

Some of his responses seemed little more than free-associative
non-sequiturs. “I have a son who’s 10, he’s so good with computers,”
said Trump when asked about US cybersecurity weaknesses.

Clinton largely kept her cool, eventually offering wryly with a smile:
“Donald, I know you live in your own reality.”

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@NateSilver538 Good news for Democrats: Really hard to see how that debate helped Trump.
Law & Politics


Bad news: If it somehow did help Trump, maybe no stopping him?

Conclusions

@HillaryClinton creamed @realDonaldTrump #debatenight cc #Debates2016
cc @hervegogo
https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/780645117153669120

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Matters Information Warfare
Law & Politics


This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of
geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be "spawned" - like any
Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions. "Hatred, jealousy, and greed -
emotions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information
warfare] struggles".

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FRANCE 24 @FRANCE24 Clinton versus Trump
Law & Politics


19-SEP-2016  If Trump can turn on and turn out his base and Hillary
can’t, then this is a toss-up.
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_014NSX1909.pdf

@NateSilver538 The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of
only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/780397205828100096

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New Cold War Spins Out of Control
Law & Politics


U.S. enthusiasts for the New Cold War with Russia appear to be
ignoring less-belligerent orders from President Obama and pushing for
a dangerous escalation of tensions, reports ex-British diplomat
Alastair Crooke.

In the aftermath of the U.S. attack on the Syrian army positions
overlooking and commanding the Dier A-Zor airfield – the airfield,
whose daily “Berlin air-bridge” style flights, are the sole lifeline
to a city long besieged by ISIS – the Russian U.N. Ambassador asked a
pertinent rhetorical question at the United Nations Security Council:
Who is running U.S. policy: Is it the Pentagon or the White House?

In brief, President Obama’s authority is no more – if it runs against
the settled opinion of the Pentagon, the CIA, the New York Times, the
Washington Post and of the Democratic Party’s Presidential candidate.
It is not unreasonable therefore to assume that Obama’s grudging
détente with a Russian President that he personally, viscerally
dislikes, is now no more than diplomatic chatter.

It is clear from this account that – what has long been suspected – is
true: that the U.S. does not, and cannot, control the jihadi monster
it has created, owing to warring disparate factions within the U.S.
“‘security state,” turning a very blind eye to the nature and true
intent of those it has been training, financing and arming.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1253
Dollar Index 95.34
Japan Yen 100.81
Swiss Franc 0.9703
Pound 1.2985
Aussie 0.7677
India Rupee 66.485
South Korea Won 1096.79
Brazil Real 3.2441
Egypt Pound 8.8794
South Africa Rand 13.5362

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I will not cease from mental fight,Till we have built Jerusalem, In Englands green & pleasant land @theresa_may
World Currencies


I will not cease from mental fight,
ill we have built Jerusalem,
In Englands green & pleasant land

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Why Iran now has the advantage in the oil price battle with Saudi Arabia @Business
Commodities


AUG-2015 The end is nigh
https://twitter.com/business/status/780658124751511552

Well “The end is nigh’’ for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas
to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja who were squealing like pigs are about
to be served up as rashers.

Oil based economies are going to contract, currencies which have
already collapsed are going to be routed and Greek- style austerity
will be the order of the day. The melt-down is coming.

Ryszard Kapuciski said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not
reassemble, we say the revolution is over.”

The revolution is only just beginning.

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Crude Oil Chart INO 45.61
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

Sub Saharan Africa

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@Pontifex Pope Francis Meets Congo's Joseph Kabila, But Vatican Displeasure Evident
Africa


VATICAN CITY:  Pope Francis has met with Congolese President Joseph
Kabila, with the Vatican insisting that Congo's government use
respectful dialogue to end violent clashes with opposition forces over
delayed elections.

The audience Monday was a brief 20 minutes, with interpreters. The
pope didn't greet Kabila in the reception room where, according to
Vatican protocol, Francis would normally greet a visiting head of
state. Rather, a glum-looking Francis waited for Kabila in his
library.

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Nigeria is in talks with the African Development Bank (AfDB) for a $1 billion dollar loan to help cover its 2016 budget deficit, the finance minister said on Monday.
Africa



The loan would be concessional with an interest rate of 1.2 percent,
Kemi Adeosun told reporters following a meeting with AfDB head
Akinwumi Adesina


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AfDB Seeks Investors for $7.6-Billion Tanzanian Railway Line @business
Africa


The African Development Bank will hold an investors’ roadshow to
attract as much as $7.6 billion in financing for a railway line
linking Tanzania’s port in Dar es Salaam with neighboring landlocked
countries.

The Abidjan, Ivory Coast-based lender is teaming up with the World
Economic Forum to help attract investors to bankroll the
2,200-kilometer (1,370-mile) line, according to Gabriel Negatu, AfDB’s
regional director for East Africa.

“We are convening a meeting of would-be investors to see how best to
finance the line,” Negatu said in a Sept. 23 interview in Kenya’s
capital, Nairobi. “Everyone who can come up with financing, we will
recommend them to the Tanzania government.”

The planned standard gauge line is “credit positive” and once
operational may cement Tanzania’s position as a logistics hub for
Eastern Africa, Moody’s Investors Service said Sept. 15. While
President John Magufuli’s government says it will become a major trade
artery between Tanzania and its landlocked neighbors, research firms
such as NKC African Economics say there’s uncertainty about whether
regional demand will justify both Kenya and Tanzania operating similar
rail networks.

The Tanzania line will run from Dar es Salaam port to Rwanda’s
capital, Kigali. Two other lines will branch off to Musongati in
Burundi and to Mwanza port on the shores of Lake Victoria to service
Uganda shippers. The line to Kigali is expected to ultimately connect
to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Export-Import Bank China may lend Tanzania $7.6 billion to finance the
railway, the government said in July. Chinese investors will be among
those invited to the AfDB financing roadshow, Negatu said.

“If they finance it completely, no one will be more happier than us,”
he said. “If China comes up with that money, I will kiss their hands.”

AfDB holds no “short-term financing view” on the railway line,
although most investors would prefer debt repayment periods of as long
as 15 years, according to Negatu. The line “can be amortized over 100
years,” he said. “It will be profitable -- this is a project for the
next century.”

Kenya is building a similar railway that seeks to connect landlocked
countries to Mombasa, its main port. Given that such economies “are
not particularly large,” it’s “questionable whether the region
requires two standard-gauge railway networks connected to two of
sub-Saharan Africa’s largest ports,” Jacques Nel, an analyst at Paarl,
South Africa-based NKC African Economics, said in an e-mailed response
to questions.

The first phase of the Kenyan link, measuring 609 kilometers (378
miles) and costing $3.2 billion, is scheduled for completion by June
2017. Construction of a second 120-kilometer leg begins by the end of
this year, according to the government.

Tanzania is also planning a liquefied natural gas plant that could
cost as much as $30 billion and a $10 billion port at Bagamoyo. It has
also agreed to host a $3.6-billion pipeline to transport Ugandan crude
to its Indian Ocean port at Tanga.

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28-AUG-2016 And if you think about it The Indian Ocean is an appendage of the South China Sea.
Africa


"Japan bears the responsibility of fostering the confluence of the
Pacific and Indian Oceans" said the Prime Minister.

So I do foresee Japan [alongside the US and India] seeking to contain
and triangulate China in the Indian Ocean.

Another issue post Fukushima is Japan's Energy Security. Here too I
expect Japan to seek a serious Foothold in the nascent East African
Energy supplies which run from Mozambique through Tanzania up to Kenya
and inland. Japan's Energy Security is a key Issue. Interestingly if
you look at the Japanese Investments, there are concentrated in
Energy, Ports, logistics, and what I would call choke-points.

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Credit rations fears as KCB stops mobile loans @Thestarkenya
Africa


Kenya Commercial Bank has quietly suspended lending via the popular
KCB M-Pesa mobile banking platform prompting fears of credit rationing
for small-scale borrowers in the wake of new rate capping law.

The move, which caught many off guard, has raised concern among the
more than six million account holders signed up on the platform. Only
those with outstanding loans can access the service to enable them
repay loans. New loan issuance has been disabled on the platform,
accessed through shortcode *844#.

The law capping rates - Banking (Amendment) Act 2016 - became
effective a fortnight ago. It capped commercial interest rates at 400
basis points above the Central Bank’s benchmark rate, which currently
stands at 10 per cent.

At the current rate, a borrower should get a loan at a maximum
interest rate of 14 per cent. However, there is an ongoing debate on
whether the law encompasses mobile loans or credit disbursed by
saccos.

“Loans on KCB M-Pesa have been put on hold for now,” a KCB customer
care agent said.

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@KCBGroup share price data here
Africa


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           25.25
Total Shares Issued:          2984227692.00
Market Capitalization:        75,351,749,223
EPS:             6.086
PE:                 4.149

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EABL loses tax incentive on Senator Keg @BD_Africa
Africa


Following the signing of the Finance Act 2016, Section 68A of the
Alcoholic Drinks Control (Amendment) Act has been repealed. The
repealed section of the Act provided a 90% decrease in the excise tax
on beer that is 75% made from sorghum, millet or cassava that is grown
in Kenya and packed in pasteurized containers of at least 30 litres.
E. A. Breweries’ Senator was the only beer that complied with all the
requirements and was developed specifically to cater for the lower
income bracket consumers. E. A. Breweries stated that the company is
currently reviewing the potential effect of this change in the law. It
is likely that this will result in sharp price increases (a 300ml mug
currently retails between KES 25-30 and may rise to KES 48-57 and a
500ml mug retails at KES 40-50 and may rise to KES 76-95) as well as
result in an increase in the consumption of illicit brews in rural
areas where Senator had grown its market share. The tax remission was
provided by Treasury to promote a safe and affordable alternative to
illicit alcohol and to plug tax revenue leakages. We expect the
reversal of excise taxes to have some negative impact on local sales
in 1H17, especially given that EABL had a strong 1H16 with emerging
beer driving Senator volumes up by 112% y/y and driving Kenya’s
revenues up by 16% y/y. For FY17 however we expect a lower impact,
noting that our research has indicated that EABL’s sales volumes in
their mainstream and above segments has now recovered following the
signing of the Excise Duty Act 2015 in December 2015. (Source:
Business Daily, Kestrel Research)

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EABL share price data here
Africa


Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           285.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization:        225,370,691,460
EPS:             12.2
PE:                 23.361

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Africa


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -7.65% 2016
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -21.12% 2016
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,187.33 +13.18 +0.42%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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