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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 23rd of September 2016
 
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Africa

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Turkey's Euphrates Shield has turned into the Sword of Osman BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR
Law & Politics


The Turkish military incursion into Syria, which began on August 24,
is getting to be one month old. Ankara faces a ticklish decision:
Should it rename its operation code-named Euphrates Shield as the
Sword of Osman used for the coronation of Ottoman Sultans?

Euphrates Shield began modestly as an operation to drive away Syrian
Kurdish militia back to the eastern side of Euphrates River. It now
wears the look of ‘Mission Creep’.

President Recep Erdogan redefined the scope of Euphrates Shield in a
major statement on Monday. Having first taken over the Syrian border
towns of Jarablus al-Rab, Turkish troops are “now going down as far as
al-Bab”, as he put it.

Erdogan posed the question that is on everyone’s lips: “But why are
you going down there?” Then, he offered an answer himself: “We need to
rid these places from being a threat to us”.

Turkish troops are now poised to go 30 kilometers inside Syrian
territory, close to the eye of the storm in Aleppo where a battle is
raging between Syrian government forces and rebel fighters supported
by Turkey.

Erdogan added: “As part of the Euphrates Shield Operation, an area of
900 square kilometres has been cleared of terror so far. We are
pushing this line to the south now. We may evaluate this area as a
total of 5,000 square kilometers as part of a safe zone.”

It is a magnificent trapeze act. Apart from neutralizing Russian
opposition to the expansion of Euphrates Shield operation, Ankara also
sets the unwritten rule that when it comes to ground operations in
northern Syria, US Special Forces will remain Turkey’s junior partner.

The US has no choice but to accept the proposition because the
alternative is that it would have even less of a role in northern
Syria, where Turkish military is determined to dominate. In strategic
terms, Turkey insists on defining the agenda in northern Syria – not
the US-led coalition.

All in all, if Turkey held a weak hand up until two or three months
ago, with the international community pouring scorn on Erdogan’s
regional policies, it is now poised to create a compelling new fact on
the ground in Syria.

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19-SEP-2016 :: If Trump can turn on and turn out his base and Hillary can't, then this is a toss-up. @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

19-SEP-2016 ::  Now the first thing to observe is that this is a
two-horse race.  The second thing to observe is that ‘event’ risk
surely favours Trump.  @TheStarKenya
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_014NSX1909.pdf

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For the first time, Saudi Arabia is being attacked by both Sunni and Shia leaders Robert Fisk
Law & Politics


The Saudis step deeper into trouble almost by the week. Swamped in
their ridiculous war in Yemen, they are now reeling from an
extraordinary statement issued by around two hundred Sunni Muslim
clerics who effectively referred to the Wahhabi belief – practiced in
Saudi Arabia – as “a dangerous deformation” of Sunni Islam. The
prelates included Egypt’s Grand Imam, Ahmed el-Tayeb of al-Azhar, the
most important centre of theological study in the Islamic world, who
only a year ago attacked “corrupt interpretations” of religious texts
and who has now signed up to “a return to the schools of great
knowledge” outside Saudi Arabia.

But the real questions they were discussing must have been equally apparent.

Who are the real representatives of Sunni Muslims if the Saudis are to
be shoved aside? And what is the future of Saudi Arabia? Of such
questions are revolutions made.

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AUG-2015 The end is nigh for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja
Law & Politics


Well “The end is nigh’’ for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas
to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja who were squealing like pigs are about
to be served up as rashers.

Oil based economies are going to contract, currencies which have
already collapsed are going to be routed and Greek- style austerity
will be the order of the day. The melt-down is coming.

Ryszard Kapuciski said: “If the crowd disperses, goes home, does not
reassemble, we say the revolution is over.”

The revolution is only just beginning.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1208
Dollar Index 95.41
Japan Yen 100.79
Swiss Franc 0.9704
Pound 1.3008
Aussie 0.7620
India Rupee 66.655
South Korea Won 1102.75
Brazil Real 3.2195
Egypt Pound 8.8222
South Africa Rand 13.6272

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Gabon braces for violence on eve of election ruling
Africa


Ping wants a recount in the Haut-Ogooue province, a Bongo stronghold
where the president won 95 percent of the votes on a 99.9 percent
turnout. Any court decision that upholds these numbers is likely to be
rejected by Ping.

But in a country with a small elite who in many cases have family
ties, it is not clear how many Gabonese believe Ping represents the
kind of real change for which it would be worth dodging bullets.

The mixed-race son of a wealthy Chinese trader, Ping is a lifelong
insider who was close to Bongo's father Omar and even fathered two
children with Omar Bongo's daughter, Pascaline.

And the head of the Constitutional Court that will rule on the
election result, Marie-Madeleine Mborantsuo, was the long-time
mistress of Omar Bongo.

U.S. Ambassador Cynthia Akuetteh was quoted in the French press last
week as comparing Gabonese politics to "Dallas", a 1980s soap opera
about a superrich Texan oil family constantly feuding and plotting
against one another.

"Ping is part of the big Bongo family," said Stephane Ndong Mba, a
mechanic in the Nkembo area of Libreville, explaining why he wouldn't
stick his neck out for either side.

Conclusions

Its all about turnout (something Gabon’s President Ali Bongo Ondimba
worked out a while back @TheStarkenya

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_014NSX1909.pdf

Its all about turnout (something Gabon’s President Ali Bongo Ondimba
worked out a while back - Bongo’s stronghold Haut-Ogooue province
clocked a a 99.93 per cent turnout versus a countrywide average of
less than 50 per cent, with 95 per cent voting in favour of Bongo)

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A dirty war is shaping up on the streets of Kinshasa, Congo's capital. NYT
Africa


The burst of violence has paralyzed one of Africa’s biggest cities and
could be a harbinger of more bloodshed to come.

An expression gaining currency here is “Toyebi indako.” In Lingala,
Kinshasa’s most widely spoken language, it means: I know your house.

Mr. Mende said the government was committed to finding a solution to
the election impasse and that it hoped a process called the “dialogue”
— which opposition leaders called the “monologue” — would produce a
compromise.

Mr. Mende said that Mr. Kabila did not intend to stay in power but
that he could not simply come out and say that.

“When a president here in our country says ‘I won’t run again,’ even
if he will be there for three months or one year, it will be three
months or one year of anarchy,” Mr. Mende said. “It’s our culture. We
need to have a chief plainly in charge.”

Étienne Tshisekedi, who at 83 is considered the grandfather of the
opposition, said he would agree to delay the election under one
condition: Mr. Kabila leaves in December.

“If he doesn’t,” he said, “we will call on the people to take power themselves.”

06-JUN-2016  The street is a tinderbox and it has become a major area
of (political) contestation across the continent.
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_013NSX0606.pdf


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May 2015 ''The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Africa


PAUL Virilio (born 1932) is a French cultural theorist and urbanist.

In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack),
becomes in other words a producer of speed.’’

As we look around the world today, we can see a battle for the
‘street’ from the streets of Bujumbura to the streets of Baltimore. In
November last year, I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan
Africa and concluded that: We need to ask ourselves how many people
can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000,
10000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discov- ered in the
throes of the event.

Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity.

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Burundi: UN investigation urges strong action in light of gross, widespread and systemic human rights violations - UN Human rights
Africa


GENEVA (20 September 2016) – The final report of the United Nations
Independent Investigation in Burundi (UNIIB)* published Tuesday,
describes “abundant evidence of gross human rights violations,”
possibly amounting to crimes against humanity, by the Government of
Burundi and people associated with it.

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South Africa holds key rate, hints at end of tightening cycle @ReutersAfrica
Africa


South Africa's central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 7 percent
for a third consecutive time this year on Thursday, with a weak
economic growth outlook balancing out concerns about inflation.

The Reserve Bank said the growth outlook remained constrained, but
revised upwards its forecast for this year to 0.4 percent growth
having previously said the economy would remain at a standstill.

In response to the decision to keep rates steady, the rand surrendered
gains driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's call to hold rates. The
rand traded at 13.5525 per dollar by 1445 GMT, from a session high of
13.3775.

The government's benchmark 2026 bond firmed to its best since Aug. 19.

In a Reuters poll, 24 of 28 economists expected the rate to remain
unchanged, while the rest forecast a 25-basis-point hike.

"Given improvements in the inflation forecast, the weak domestic
economic outlook and the assessment of the balance of risks, the MPC
has unanimously decided to keep the repurchase rate unchanged,"
Governor Lesetja Kganyago told reporters.

"The MPC is of the view that should current forecasts transpire, we
may be close to the end of the tightening cycle."

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Making 'Africa Rising' a Reality in Nigeria Muhammadu Buhari @bv
Africa


"Africa Rising!" has given way to a more questioning "Africa Rising?"

Now that we are face to face with the vulnerabilities somehow hidden
during the years of plenty, we should turn away from the unhelpful
habits of the past and chart a new course. Since I signed the 2016
budget into law in May, Nigeria's Ministry of Finance has released
more than 400 billion naira for infrastructure spending -- more than
the total amount spent in 2015.

In the face of dwindling oil revenues, we are turning to debt. We have
begun raising a $1 billion Eurobond, our first in three years. We are
also raising debt from the World Bank, the African Development Bank,
the Chinese Ex-Im Bank and other development finance partners.

read more



'Timebomb' Highway Is Economic Lifeline in World's Newest Nation
Africa


When trucker James Okumu slams his pedal to the floor for the
three-hour drive between South Sudan’s capital and the Ugandan border,
he feels like he’s sitting on a time bomb.

“You don’t know when it will explode,” said the 37-year-old Ugandan,
who regularly plies the 195-kilometer (121-mile) route to transport
vegetables and rice to Juba from his home country.

Unidentified gunmen have ambushed buses and fuel-tankers on the
winding road this month, killing at least 13 people, according to a
tally of local media reports. It’s the latest violence linked to a
civil war that began in late 2013 and has claimed tens of thousands of
lives while bringing the oil-producing nation to the brink of
collapse.

The fall in traffic on the Juba-Nimule road, a key route to the East
African region’s biggest port in Kenya, could mean disaster for South
Sudan’s economy. Inflation is already almost 730 percent and
practically everything, including refined fuel, is imported. Rather
than risking the route, many aid groups are flying in humanitarian
supplies crucial to a country where almost half the more than 11
million population face severe food shortages.

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"With the rate caps, it's not clear which way to go," Njoroge told reporters Wednesday in the capital, Nairobi.
Africa


The limits on borrowing rates may result in a “perverse reaction”
among banks and lead to riskier borrowers being cut off from lending,
he said.

Conclusions

The consequences of this Cap are turning out to be uniformly adverse.
The Act has impaired our Free Market credentials and the expectations
are simply not going to be met. It was good political Optics [at the
time].

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.146
Africa


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -8.41% 2016
http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

133.45 +0.60 +0.45%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -21.56% 2016
http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,169.64 -0.58 -0.02%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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