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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 08th of September 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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China FX reserves fall to $3.19trln, lowest since '11. Aug drop of $15.89b biggest since May Mike Dolan @reutersMikeD
Africa


Home Thoughts

I have met People who are very well to do and very unhappy. I have met
People who apparently have nothing and are happy. My Conclusion is
that it is all to do with the Mind-set

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"Jean Ping has committed fraud," Bongo said in a separate interview with Europe 1 radio on Wednesday.
Law & Politics


 "I didn't organize anything, I didn't put in place a network of cyber
criminals in order to rig the vote."

Asked whether he would accept the court's ruling if it did examine the
results, he said: "I am a democrat. I am in favor the Constitutional
Court taking up the case and may it confirm my election. That's what I
am expecting."

read more




Commentary: Time to reflect on U.S. rebalance strategy Xinhua News
Law & Politics


As U.S. President Barack Obama attends his last East Asia Summit here
Thursday, it is high time that Washington conducted some serious
soul-searching over the outgoing administration's signature pivot to
Asia policy.

Unlike many of his predecessors who were inclined to take adventures
in the Middle East, Obama dubbed himself the United States' first
Pacific president, and has chosen to entrench and expand the U.S.
presence in Asia.

Yet the past few years have repeatedly proved that his overarching
strategy, later labeled the U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific, is
just a narrow-minded scheme orchestrated to maintain his country's
hegemony and corrosive to the region's peace and stability.

It is an open secret that China -- a large country with steadily
increasing national strength and international influence -- is the
bull's-eye. The Obama administration has never said that, but it is
trying to deploy an advanced missile defense system in South Korea
that far exceeds Seoul's security needs, and its hand is behind the
South China Sea arbitration farce staged by the former Philippine
government.

Although some nations in the region have been hoodwinked once in a
while, most others are clear-eyed. In a July meeting in the Laotian
capital of Vientiane in the wake of the arbitration horseplay,
Southeast Asian foreign ministers rejected anti-China incitements and
called for settling maritime disputes through negotiations.

The self-command of most Asian countries is just part of the reason
why Washington's enthrallment spell is losing its power. Besides that
is the increasing difficulty for the United States to put the pieces
together and pull off the trick.

On the one hand, the economic pillar of the policy, the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP), is cracking. The Obama administration will be gone
in less than five months, and Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the
White House contenders of the two major U.S. parties, are united in
assaulting the deal, although they are at each other's throat.

Even if the trade pact were approved and enacted, its potential would
be very much in doubt, as the largest trader in the world and largest
trading partner of many countries across the region - China -- is
absent from the U.S.-pushed arrangement.

On the other hand, the military pillar remains a plan. The Pentagon
once publicly declared that it would transfer 60 percent of U.S. Air
Force and Navy assets to the Asia-Pacific. Intentions aside,
cross-the-board budget cuts and unfinished messes in the Middle East
have had it mired and hamstrung.

As regards intentions, the Obama administration's calculations behind
the redeployment of military resources are as clear as daylight:
Washington has to continue to call the shots in the world's most
economically exuberant area.

Such a hegemony-based Asia doctrine is doomed. It is incompatible with
the defining features of today's world, namely peace, development and
cooperation; it puts the region's bright prospects in jeopardy; and it
will harm the United States' interests in the long run.

The United States is an important player and stakeholder in the
Asia-Pacific, yet the region belongs to all who inhabit it, and
Beijing has every right to maintain that Washington should play a
constructive role in it.

If it truly wants a peaceful and prosperous Asia-Pacific, then it is
time for the United States to come up with a new playbook, as well as
an epitaph for the pivot policy.

Conclusions

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02-DEC-2013 The Pivot to Asia bares its Fangs
Law & Politics


I see the pivot to Asia as the encirclement of China, then the
shrinking of its operating theatre and then lighting the tinderbox
that is the periphery and Xinjiang might well morph into China’s
Afghanistan. You will recall that the architect of Russia’s defeat in
Afghanistan was Zbigniew Brzezinski and he remains a foreign policy
eminence grise with the president’s ear. The US probably feels it
holds a decisive hard power advantage at this moment and given that
the trajectory is one of gradual erosion of that decisive advantage
leads me to the view that this pivot to Asia has a logic and momentum
of its own. Therefore, I see the US being increasingly determined to
press its advantage One of the key elements of the Pivot to Asia is
the air-sea battle concept. This concept envisages the battle
beginning with a “blinding attack” against Chinese anti-access
facilities and incorporates “distant blockade” operations. China’s
dependence on foreign oil is increasing just as the US’ dependency is
decreasing. And interestingly, given my belief that the Eastern
seaboard is a fabulous energy prize, that puts the Indian Ocean in
many respects right into the geopolitical frame. If you are
considering ‘’distant blockade’’ operations, one of those areas you
will be blockading is this part of the world, given the amount of
energy that is likely to be sold into Asia, in the future.

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28-AUG-2016 And if you think about it The Indian Ocean is an appendage of the South China Sea.
Law & Politics


"Japan bears the responsibility of fostering the confluence of the
Pacific and Indian Oceans" said the Prime Minister.

So I do foresee Japan [alongside the US and India] seeking to contain
and triangulate China in the Indian Ocean.

Another issue post Fukushima is Japan's Energy Security. Here too I
expect Japan to seek a serious Foothold in the nascent East African
Energy supplies which run from Mozambique through Tanzania up to Kenya
and inland. Japan's Energy Security is a key Issue. Interestingly if
you look at the Japanese Investments, there are concentrated in
Energy, Ports, logistics, and what I would call choke-points.

read more


@alykhansatchu Dec 29 Ali the Navigator Wasini Island Kenya
Law & Politics


Pictures released by the Philippines allegedly show Chinese ships
and barges at the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
Photograph: AP

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/08/beijing-warns-us-to-stay-out-of-south-china-sea-dispute

"Japan bears the responsibility of fostering the confluence of the
Pacific and Indian Oceans" @AbeShinzo #TICADVI

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/769497069275013120

Sky News ‏@SkyNews A Russian fighter jet came within 10ft of a US
spy plane over the Black Sea

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/773753293302530048

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Trump in TV event with Clinton, says Putin better leader than Obama
Law & Politics


"I think under the leadership of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton the
generals have been reduced to rubble. They have been reduced to a
point that’s embarrassing for our country," Trump said at NBC's
"Commander-in-Chief" forum in New York attended by military veterans.

It was the first time Trump and Clinton had squared off on the same
stage since accepting their parties' presidential nominations in July
for the Nov. 8 election.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1248
Dollar Index 94.85
Japan Yen 101.58 Japan 2Q Final GDP grew by 0.2% (est. 0.0%),
Annualized SA QoQ +0.7% (est. +0.2%)
Swiss Franc 0.9685
Pound 1.3347
Aussie 0.7678
India Rupee 66.465
South Korea Won 1093.72
Brazil Real 3.1921
Egypt Pound 8.8774
South Africa Rand 14.0242

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Dollar Index Chart INO 94.857 [93.00 still key]
World Currencies


Sterling Chart INO 1.3347 [Buy on reverses for a move to 1.4000]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=dmax&t=f&a=50&w=1

#Germany's Dax closed at highest level since Dec propelled by #ECB
balance sheet expansion Holger Zschaepitz ‏

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/773551311874818048

read more


Tech has really taken over....World's 5 largest by value: David Ingles
Law & Politics


Apple $583B
Alphabet $545B
Microsoft $449B
Facebook $376B
Amazon $371B

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How Glencore's Roller-Coaster Ride tamed its swash-buckling CEO @Business
Commodities


Chief Executive Ivan Glasenberg and his band of traders ran the
commodities behemoth with swagger. 2015’s plunging metal prices and
company stock forced them to enact a rescue plan that’s still playing
out.

“Are you sure this is the right thing to do?”

Ivan Glasenberg, chief executive of commodities behemoth Glencore,
asked the question again and again. His underlings and advisers,
hastily summoned to their company’s Baar, Switzerland, headquarters
one year ago, reassured and debated with him as he kept asking: Is
this right? It was a rare moment in which Glasenberg was circumspect
in front of his team.

The 59-year-old CEO has a reputation as the shrewdest, boldest leader
in his industry—not just the proverbial smartest guy in the room, but
in the entire world of copper, coal, oil, aluminum, and wheat. On that
Sunday last year, Glasenberg led a company with about $170 billion in
annual revenue, 160,000 employees, and a market value of $26 billion.
With operations on six continents, Glencore supplies grains for
breakfast cereal, cotton for T-shirts, power for homes, and copper for
pipe and electrical wires.

Glasenberg is the guy whose company once goaded Russia into capping
its wheat exports, then made a bundle on futures positions secured
before the price rose. The guy who bought up coal mines in the early
1990s when nobody else wanted them, and made billions later as demand
in developing countries surged. The one who sought the $10 billion
stock offering that made Glencore a public company—and himself a paper
billionaire—in 2011. (Peter Grauer, the chairman of Bloomberg LP, is a
senior independent non-executive director at Glencore).

But the summer of 2015 hadn’t gone well for Glasenberg. Growth in
China, the world’s biggest commodities customer, had slipped. Copper
and other metals prices were plunging. Glasenberg shrugged it off in
August when Glencore announced a big drop in first-half profit,
insisting everything would be swell. The market then shredded
Glencore’s stock, pushing it down by almost 10 percent.

Glasenberg, unaccustomed to being so roundly ignored, fumed privately
about the hedge funds that were shorting Glencore stock. As he saw it,
they didn’t appreciate China’s long-term prospects or Glencore’s
long-term view. To Glasenberg, the funds just wanted a quick payoff
and they didn’t mind pummeling his company to get it.

What follows is an account of how Glencore sought to maneuver its way
out of its worst crisis ever, based on interviews and conversations
with more than a dozen people including company executives, CEO
Glasenberg, advisers, investors, and others close to the company.

That day in Baar, huddled with his deputies, Glasenberg faced a
difficult choice. He could choose to do nothing. He could plot out
ways to reduce Glencore’s debt and leave it at that. He also had the
option of giving his most critical shareholders a chance to buy
Glencore stock at a discount–something he was not eager to do. Along
with restive investors and a collapsing market, Glasenberg was facing
off against his own hard-earned pride.

It’s possible that no one outside the realm of commodities trading had
heard of Glencore before President Clinton’s final day in office in
2001. Clinton touched off a political storm by granting a pardon to
one of his more controversial donors, the man who effectively created
Glencore, Marc Rich.

He founded Marc Rich + Co. in Zug, Switzerland, next door to Baar, in
1974, after spending two decades with raw materials merchant Philipp
Brothers. Rich had changed the way oil was traded by creating a spot
market that allowed third parties to buy and sell crude outside the
tight circle of OPEC and major oil companies.

He fled the U.S. in 1983 after being charged with tax evasion and
illegal dealings with Iran. A decade later, after a failed attempt to
corner the zinc market, he sold his company to some of his executives,
who renamed it Glencore. One of the new partners was Glasenberg.

Glasenberg, a trim man of medium height with a widow’s peak flecked
with silver, is known throughout his industry simply as Ivan. He has
surrounded himself with other people, most of them men, who are as
restless and driven as him. He doesn’t like talking about himself, and
granted Bloomberg a rare interview in June.

Speaking in his clipped South African accent, he constantly interrupts
himself, as if his mouth can’t keep up with his brain. David Herro,
chief investment officer for Harris Associates in Chicago, which owns
about $2 billion of Glencore stock, calls Glasenberg “a positive
outlier. So many of these guys are poseurs. He’s not a poseur.”

In 1990 Glasenberg took over Rich’s coal division and started buying
small mines in Colombia, South Africa, and Australia. Back then,
Glencore’s trading operation was by far its biggest source of revenue
and profit. But Glasenberg, who became CEO in 2002, thought mines,
smelters, and pipelines offered his traders a source of assets to swap
plus a reliable stream of capital to grease the gears of the trading
machinery. “You need assets to assist the trading, to have a secure
and stable supply of commodities for the trading,” he said in the June
interview. But there were drawbacks, as would become evident.

In 2007, Glasenberg signed a memorandum of understanding under which
Glencore would merge with mining conglomerate Xstrata. Co-signing was
Xstrata CEO Mick Davis, Glasenberg’s friend and fellow South African.
Glencore had helped create Xstrata and had a minority stake in the
company. Glasenberg wanted it all. Then came the global financial
crisis and the deal evaporated, for the moment.

The crisis exposed Glencore’s closely held partnership as it hadn’t
been before. With commodity prices falling, investors trading
credit-default swaps tied to Glencore bonds saw an increasing risk of
default. Glasenberg told his executives to explore two options:
curtail growth to prevent such predicaments, or push forward with a
broad expansion fueled by an eventual public offering. The latter
option, code-named Galaxy 2, prevailed. In May 2011, Glencore sold $10
billion in shares, London’s largest IPO ever.

Until then, few people outside Glencore knew much about what
transpired at the bland, four-story headquarters that had fashioned
itself as the FedEx of the commodities world. Hardly anyone knew how
much Glencore traded, which markets it dominated, how much debt the
trading desks piled up, or how much Glasenberg and his partners were
making.

Glencore closed the deal in May 2013. So confident was Glasenberg in
the alchemy of his trading and mining twins that, in August 2014,
Glencore authorized a $1 billion share buyback even as copper and coal
prices were sliding. “The supercycle ain’t over,” Glasenberg told
Bloomberg then. “China is still buying, demand for commodities hasn’t
tapered off, it’s even higher than it’s ever been.”

One year later, on Aug. 19, 2015, Glencore dropped a bombshell on the
market. Its first-half profit had fallen by 56 percent—the largest
such decline since the IPO. On a conference call with industry
analysts, Glasenberg and his CFO, Steven Kalmin, acted as if it was
merely a blip.

Glasenberg argued that the price of copper, which had dropped 21
percent that year, was “not making sense” because inventories were
down to where “you normally have a much higher copper price.” Although
Glencore’s debt was nearing $30 billion, Kalmin insisted Glencore
could “walk and chew gum” by sustaining its triple-B credit rating
without cutting the dividend.

Investors pushed Glencore’s share price down that day to 159 British
pence from 176; by month’s end, it would fall to 148 pence, down 72
percent from its IPO price. “We thought, ‘There’s something not right
here,’ ” says Clive Burstow, resources investment manager at Baring
Asset Management in London. “They’re talking about everything is
absolutely fine. It didn’t marry up with what we were hearing from
other people on the ground.”

Many shareholders were worried about Glencore’s debt. At $29.6
billion, it represented 2.7 times the company’s earnings before
interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—almost double that of
some rivals, including BHP Billiton, the world’s largest miner, with a
1.45 ratio in 2015. At the same time, the performance of the trading
desk remained almost as opaque as when Glencore was private. Trading
involves lots of short-term borrowing. For example, Glencore
dispatches the equivalent of two oil tankers a day, each carrying 2
million barrels. At current prices, that requires about $200 million
in loans per day.

Every six months, investors and industry analysts got a glimpse of how
profitable trading was, without much detail to help them model future
performance. With a copper mine, analysts can calculate estimates
based on current prices and how much copper is being extracted. Not
much like that was available for Glencore’s trading operation, which
some investors viewed as a black box. But at least trading doesn’t
rely on high commodity prices. Boom and bust both offer opportunities
to a smart trader, so Glencore’s trading was less volatile than the
up-and-downs of mining—a competitive difference the company happily
points out to investors.

Increasingly, though, Glencore’s traders were on the wrong side of the
market. The company had told investors in 2015 that traders would
generate annual profit before interest and taxes of $2.7 billion to
$3.7 billion. In the first half, they made only $1.1 billion, forcing
Glasenberg to concede they’d fall short even of the bottom of the
range. “Ivan basically said, ‘We can do magic,’ and everybody believed
him,” Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Paul Gait says. “When it turns out
he can’t do magic, who’s at fault? Him for having said it, or the
people for having believed it?”

Like many, Glasenberg hadn’t seen China’s slowdown coming. “Long-term,
you can be a believer in China and that’s my belief,” he said he told
shareholders. “But short-term is difficult, as the Chinese can pull
any lever at any time.” It frosted him that Lansdowne Partners, Viking
Global Investors, Passport Capital, and other hedge funds were
shorting Glencore stock. “He was angry,” says Chicago investor Herro,
who was building his position in the company as the share price fell.
“He thought people were trying to trash his company just to hurt it.”
It made Glasenberg reluctant to take steps that could benefit the
hedge funds to the detriment of Glencore. Representatives for
Lansdowne, Viking, and Passport declined to comment.

That Sunday evening, Glencore finalized a plan announced the next day.
It would suspend two dividend payments, saving $2.4 billion; sell at
least $2 billion in assets, including a stake in its agricultural
unit; suspend production at two mines in Africa, which would cost
thousands of jobs; and conduct a share sale that would raise $2.5
billion. Glasenberg and his fellow managers would purchase $550
million of the offering. Overall, Glencore said it would reduce its
debt to $20 billion by the end of 2016.

Glasenberg didn’t love the stock offer, but he concluded that he and
the other executives could afford it after collecting tens of millions
in prior dividend payments. He alone coughed up $212 million to
maintain his stake. As for his hedge fund adversaries, he settled for
offering them shares on Sept. 16 at a 2.4 percent discount to the
previous day’s close—a narrow enough margin that the funds weren’t
likely to reap too nice a profit.

As sharp as the U-turn was, the market was unimpressed. Glencore’s
shares bounced up to 144 pence on Sept. 9, then started sliding again.
On the morning of Sept. 28, Investec Securities issued a report saying
Glencore’s value “could evaporate” if commodity prices kept falling.
Hour by hour the stock nose-dived while Glencore, looking like its
old, tight-lipped self, said nothing. The stock fell that day by 29
percent to 69 pence, extraordinary for a blue-chip member of the FTSE
100 Index. The next day, the company issued a statement saying it was
“operationally and financially robust.”

Investec research head Jeremy Wrathall, who helped write the report,
says, “We had absolutely no idea that (the market) would respond like
that. The phones went mad. Everybody was ringing, clients, the press,
one phone call from Glencore, our sales force from New York. It was a
very strange day.”

In retrospect, the Investec report and a subsequent dark forecast from
Bank of America Merrill Lynch were probably overblown. But Glencore’s
stock remained on a roller coaster through the end of 2015. For the
year, Glasenberg’s company lost a staggering $41 billion in market
value—almost the value of Netflix.

Every time Harris Associates’ Herro met with his clients last winter
and spring, he had to spend the first 15 minutes explaining why he’d
invested so much of their money in Glencore. “I could have said, ‘This
is a pain in the ass, I’m not owning Glencore,’ ” he says. But he’d
become convinced that the hedge funds were wrong about the company’s
future.

Glencore now says its debt will be as low as $16.5 billion by the end
of 2016. As investors have slammed the entire mining sector, Glencore
has seen its stock fall by about 40 percent since it acquired Xstrata,
and 65 percent since its IPO. But shares have more than doubled this
year—closing Sept. 6 at 183.25 pence—to potentially hurt some hedge
funds that bet they would keep falling.

Glencore is a different company than it was a year ago—a bit less
swashbuckling band of traders, a little more plain-vanilla mining
company. As for Glasenberg, Herro says, “he’s less angry and more
confident.”

At a meeting with about 20 hedge fund representatives in New York last
spring, Glasenberg offered a little quiz: Does anyone know the
per-capita GDP of China? A few hands went up, Glasenberg and Kalmin
recall. Each person guessed wrong. “We said, ‘Surely if you don’t know
the GDP of China, then how can you risk shorting China with such
limited knowledge?’ ” Glasenberg asks, grinning.

He’s not holding it against them too much. “This is the commodity
business,” he said in the June interview. “We’re used to cycles.”

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Pay heed to the butterfly effect of Putin-Salman oil deal in Hangzhou BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR
Commodities


The Russia-Saudi bonding in Hangzhou seems a tactical congruence to
keep oil prices stable. Their energy alliance holds implications for
western economic recovery which is critically linked to oil prices.
In strategic terms, Washington’s attempt to isolate Moscow is rendered
ineffective because of Europe’s heavy dependence on Russia for energy
supplies. Clearly, Russia has outmaneuvered the US on Middle Eastern
chessboard.

In the early sixties, when Edward Lorenz, the late mathematician and
meteriologist at MIT, observed during experiments of his weather model
that small, seemingly inconsequential causes could cause a
significantly different outcome, for aptly describing the phenomenon,
he picked the metaphorical example of the details of a hurricane being
influenced by minor perturbations such as the flapping of the wings of
a distant butterfly several weeks earlier.

Thus was born the tantalizing ‘butterfly effect’ in chaos theory – the
concept that small causes can have large effects, or, conversely, that
dynamical systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

How far Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Deputy Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman worked toward a ‘butterfly effect’ when they got
together on Sunday in Hangzhou on the sidelines of the G20 summit,
time only will reveal.

But the high probability is that they understood that the flapping of
their emergent strategic partnership in the energy sector could
trigger a tornado in the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Putin’s addressed Prince Salman in these measured words: “We attach
great significance to expanding multifaceted and mutually beneficial
cooperation with Saudi Arabia. This also applies to our bilateral
relations, bearing in mind that we are the largest oil-producing
countries. This also applies to international issues. We believe that
without Saudi Arabia, no serious issue in the region, of course, can
be solved.”

read more




Small Is Better in Africa's Economies as Biggest Nations Stumble @Business
Africa


East African nations are playing an increasing role in driving growth
in the world’s poorest continent as they ride a wave of cheap oil,
slowing inflation and lower interest rates. Left behind: Former
powerhouses Nigeria and South Africa.

The economies of Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda are all set to
expand more than 5 percent this year, International Monetary Fund
projections show. Nigeria, struggling with weak crude prices, power
outages and mismanagement of the currency, faces a 1.8 percent
contraction. South Africa is set to stagnate as it contends with
political and labor turmoil and lackluster demand for its minerals.

The bad news for commodities producers has been a boon for East
Africa, which has done better at developing agriculture and
manufacturing industries. Low prices of energy and other inputs also
have helped contain inflation and interest rates, in turn shoring up
consumer spending. The region is also reaping the benefits of an
improved regulatory regime and increased investment in transport links
and telecommunications.

“East African nations and other oil importers have largely been
insulated from the slump currently being experienced by the big
commodity producers,” said Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at
Exotix Partners LLP in London.

A growth spurt is visible in Kenya, East Africa’s biggest economy. The
government is spending $3.2 billion on a rail link between the two
main cities and the same amount on paving 10,000 kilometers (6,213
miles) of roads by 2020. Nairobi, the traffic-choked capital, is a
giant construction site, with the value of approved building plans
surging 41 percent in the first five months of the year. Giant cranes
tower over the city as they raise glass-clad skyscrapers.

Rwanda is positioning itself as a regional financial and conference
center by cutting red tape, increasing high-speed Internet access and
improving roads and electricity supply. Tanzania has begun tapping an
estimated 58 trillion cubic feet of natural gas from offshore fields
and intends using it to fire up new factories and commercial farms.
Uganda is gearing up to become an oil producer by 2020 and expects to
attract $8 billion in investment from three offshore companies that
have been issued production licences.

“The narrative of 6 percent growth as far as the eye can see and
Africa as a new China is dead, or at least dying, but it was always a
bit overblown,” he said by e-mail. “At the end of the day Africa is
still huge, has a growing population and massive natural resources.
There will always be opportunities.”

Foreign direct investment into Africa fell to $71.3 billion last year,
down from $88.5 billion in 2014, according to accounting firm EY.
Kenya attracted 95 new projects, the second-most after South Africa,
which won 130, while just 53 went to Nigeria, it said.

Conclusions

read more






South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.45% 2016
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.0242

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

#Zuma's nephew to pay $1.65 million to #SouthAfrica mine
liquidators: union | Reuters Africa ‏

https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/773511583943254016

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +16.27% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.91% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -10.07% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

#Zimbabwe court says ban on protests invalid, suspends it for
seven days | Reuters

https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/773536613859201025

read more


Zimbabwe court strikes down police ban on protests
Africa


Zimbabwe's High Court struck down on Wednesday a two-week ban on
public protests issued by the police, a ruling hailed as a brave stand
by the courts in the face of threats to the judiciary from President
Robert Mugabe.

read more


Not-so risky business in Congo as Australians embroiled in offshore bribe claims Sydney Morning Herald
Africa


Sundance's adventure in the Republic of the Congo has been profoundly
ill-starred. It hit the headlines four years after the events detailed
here, when the company's entire board, including well-known
businessman Ken Talbot, plunged to their deaths in a light plane while
travelling in the Congo. Talbot was at the time facing corruption
charges after he allegedly bribed then Queensland minister Gordon
Nutgall.

From the sky, the Congo's deep-green jungles and wide, snaking rivers
call to mind a lost paradise. But walk among the slums of Brazzaville
and the illusion is laid bare.This is no paradise. The Republic of the
Congo is simply lost.

In 2006, this corruption posed a challenge for Perth geologist David
Porter after he began working with Sundance Resources in Africa.
Porter had pinpointed a huge iron ore deposit of potentially 1 billion
tonnes straddling the border of Congo and Cameroon. His missives back
to the company's Perth headquarters sometimes included a rider about
why it was necessary to countenance unusual business practices.

"This is Africa," Porter would simply explain.

One of the three men Porter and Sundance dispatched to Brazzaville in
July 2006 was Serge Asso'o, whose father was a legendary and powerful
Cameroon army general with close ties to the President of Cameroon.

The second Sundance agent was Roger Bogne, a self-styled "serial
entrepreneur" operating in Africa's shady gold sector.

Bogne and Asso'o jnr had already demonstrated their influence in the
region when they helped Sundance to secure permits from the ministry
for mines in Cameroon.

This network of "buddies" apparently extended over the border into
Congo, where Sundance hoped mining licences would create one of
Africa's biggest iron ore ventures – what was to become known as
Mbalam-Nabeba, a project that would establish Sundance as a serious
player among Australia's miners.

Making up the trio was Fabrice Sil, a slick banker whose apparent
utility was hinted at by Porter in internal documents: Sil had gone
"to university with the son of the President of Congo".

A couple of days after arriving in Brazzaville on July 19, 2006, Sil,
Bogne and Asso'o were whisked in a car past roadside fish and
vegetable sellers to the villa of the man whose spending habits have
made headlines across the world.

The President's son has featured in British, Swiss and French
newspaper and NGO investigations examining allegations he and his
family misused public funds. In 2013, French investigators discovered
that the man – who is now an MP and director of Congo's national oil
company – owned at least seven luxury vehicles in Paris, including a
Porsche Cayenne and a Maserati.

read more





Kenyan Lenders Push Central Bank to Clarify Rate-Cap Law @business
Kenyan Economy


Kenyan lenders are seeking clarification from the central bank about
which base rate they should use when determining loan costs, and may
be forced to lower rates further if they’re advised the one they’re
already using is incorrect, an industry lobby group said.

Banks last week began cutting the cost of loans to a maximum of 14.5
percent after President Uhuru Kenyatta on Aug. 24 signed a law setting
commercial lending rates at no more than four percentage points above
the central bank base rate. Two weeks later, lenders are still unclear
whether that refers to the Central Bank Rate, currently at 10.5
percent, or the Kenya Banks’ Reference Rate, which is at 8.9 percent,
said Lamin Manjang, chairman of Kenya Bankers Association.

“We used the CBR whilst we wait for that clarification,” Manjang, who
is also chief executive officer of Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd.,
said by phone from the capital, Nairobi, on Tuesday. “In absence of
specification, the banks have applied the CBR. We will have to adjust
once there is that clarity.”

The central bank declined to comment when contacted on Tuesday. In a
statement on its Twitter account, the bank said the KBRR is “the base
rate for lending by commercial banks and micro-finance banks as well
as for pricing mortgage products.”

The central bank later said on Twitter that post was an error and
apologized for any inconveniences caused by it.

Central bank Governor Patrick Njoroge had opposed the proposal by
lawmakers to cap interest rates, warning in February that regulating
loan costs would be “damaging to the economy and regressive to
growth.” Kenyatta approved the legislation, which also sets minimum
payments on deposits, saying he sympathized with Kenyans frustrated by
the cost of credit and poor savings rates.

KCB Group Ltd., Kenya’s biggest lender by assets, Stanbic Bank Kenya
Ltd., Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd. and Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd.
are among financial institutions that have reduced borrowing costs to
a maximum of 14.5 percent. They extended credit at a weighted average
of 18 percent in June, according to the latest central bank data.

“Banks are more or less being proactive as we await clarity,” Habil
Olaka, the chief executive officer of the Kenya Bankers Association,
said by phone. “When the rate is clarified, they can do the necessary
amendments.”
I
The central bank has in the past conceded that the KBRR was
ineffective in transmitting monetary policy and said it was working on
reforming it or replacing the gauge altogether.

While the amendment to the banking act probably refers to the CBR and
not the KBRR, the new law is unclear, Sonal Sejpal, a director at
Anjarwalla & Khanna Advocates said in an advisory note sent to its
banking clients on Sept. 5.

“There is nothing in the act that suggests it should be CBR and not
KBRR (or vice versa) and the ambiguity should be clarified,” she said.
“This is necessary even though the central bank has not announced that
banks should be referring to KBRR and not CBR.”

In addition, the cap is not clearly stated in the new law because
there are words missing, meaning the amended act can be interpreted in
three ways, Sejpal said. The government gazette published on Sept. 1
sets the maximum interest rate that can be charged for a credit
facility in Kenya at “no more than four percent, the base rate set and
published” by the central bank.

That could mean that banks charge no more than 4 percent above the
CBR, no more than 4 percent of the CBR, or no more than four
percentage points above the CBR, Sejpal said. Banks have adopted the
third interpretation.

Conclusions

read more


"We are still in this period of ambiguity and a lack of clarity," said Aly-Khan Satchu, chief executive officer of Rich Management @business
Kenyan Economy


“My impression remains that this was a very populist decision,” Satchu
said. “I suspect the government wants to send a very strong message
and there is still more negotiation to come around how to implement
this properly.”

read more


Volkswagen targets East Africa with Kenya car assembly plant
Kenyan Economy


Volkswagen's will resume producing cars in Kenya by the end of the
year as it looks to sell more vehicles across the East African region.

After a four decade pause in production by the German carmaker in
Kenya, VW will establish an assembly plant to initially produce its
Vivo model, President Uhuru Kenyatta and Thomas Schafer, Volkswagen
South Africa's chief executive, said.

Emerging market production is familiar territory for VW, whose
familiar Beetle model was a favourite on the streets of Mexico, but
Kenya's car market is dominated by low-priced second-hand imports from
countries such as Japan.

VW, which assembled cars in Kenya in the 1960s and 1970s, will join
other brands already being put together in the country, including
Isuzu, Toyota, Nissan and Mitsubishi.

"Volkswagen South Africa will now again establish an assembly plant to
produce motor vehicles at the Kenya Motor Vehicle Manufacturers
limited in Thika," Kenyatta said on Wednesday after meeting Volkswagen
South Africa executives.

read more


FACEBOOK FOUNDER WANTS TO BUY M-PESA, IN ONE OF AFRICA'S LARGEST BUYOUTS.Teron Futures (speculative)
Kenyan Economy


Mobile money giant, Mpesa, may be headed the Facebook way. The
Facebook creator was in Kenya over the course of last week, an
impromptu visit that caused a stir on Global Tech business scene. It
was the first time that Mark Eliot showed envy on the largest Mobile
money company on the planet. Mark made one of the largest buyouts in
history when he bought social messaging company Whatsapp. He also
bought the premiere photo sharing app Instagram both of which have
grown to over a billion monthly users making them the largest social
networks and on top ten Websites on Alexa.

What it means for Mpesa

If Facebook finally manages to acquire Mpesa, it will become a global
company. It will have advantage of a worldwide exposure through
merging with Facebook and it will get world class infrastructure by
the elites of the Tech business. Charges will go down, most probably
so low due to a Large user base. The negotiations are on going and
soon we may be cerebrating one of our own, Changing lives around the
globe.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.30
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -10.26% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Kenya Airways board to share recovery plan with shareholders @BD_Africa

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Corporate-News/Kenya-Airways-board-to-share-recovery-plan-with-shareholders/539550-3373030-wviam5/index.html

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -21.58% 2016 [3,123.54 was the multi-year low
from 30th August]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,168.62 -0.69 -0.02%

Trans-century share price data +82.22% since 26th August

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTg%3D

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


In a Headline Article in Bloomberg today

East African nations are playing an increasing role in driving growth
in the world’s poorest continent as they ride a wave of cheap oil,
slowing inflation and lower interest rates. Left behind: Former
powerhouses Nigeria and South Africa.

The bad news for commodities producers has been a boon for East Africa.

“East African nations and other oil importers have largely been
insulated from the slump currently being experienced by the big
commodity producers,” said Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at
Exotix Partners LLP in London.

A growth spurt is visible in Kenya, East Africa’s biggest economy. The
government is spending $3.2 billion on a rail link between the two
main cities and the same amount on paving 10,000 kilometers (6,213
miles) of roads by 2020. Nairobi, the traffic-choked capital, is a
giant construction site, with the value of approved building plans
surging 41 percent in the first five months of the year. Giant cranes
tower over the city as they raise glass-clad skyscrapers.

And in another Bloomberg Article headlined ''Kenyan Lenders Push
Central Bank to Clarify Rate-Cap Law''

Banks last week began cutting the cost of loans to a maximum of 14.5
percent after President Uhuru Kenyatta on Aug. 24 signed a law setting
commercial lending rates at no more than four percentage points above
the central bank base rate. Two weeks later, lenders are still unclear
whether that refers to the Central Bank Rate, currently at 10.5
percent, or the Kenya Banks’ Reference Rate, which is at 8.9 percent,
said Lamin Manjang, chairman of Kenya Bankers Association.

“We used the CBR whilst we wait for that clarification,” Manjang, who
is also chief executive officer of Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd.,
said by phone from the capital, Nairobi, on Tuesday. “In absence of
specification, the banks have applied the CBR. We will have to adjust
once there is that clarity.”

KCB Group Ltd., Kenya’s biggest lender by assets, Stanbic Bank Kenya
Ltd., Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd. and Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd.
are among financial institutions that have reduced borrowing costs to
a maximum of 14.5 percent. They extended credit at a weighted average
of 18 percent in June, according to the latest central bank data.

“Banks are more or less being proactive as we await clarity,” Habil
Olaka, the chief executive officer of the Kenya Bankers Association,
said by phone. “When the rate is clarified, they can do the necessary
amendments.”
I
While the amendment to the banking act probably refers to the CBR and
not the KBRR, the new law is unclear, Sonal Sejpal, a director at
Anjarwalla & Khanna Advocates said in an advisory note sent to its
banking clients on Sept. 5.

“There is nothing in the act that suggests it should be CBR and not
KBRR (or vice versa) and the ambiguity should be clarified,” she said.
“This is necessary even though the central bank has not announced that
banks should be referring to KBRR and not CBR.”

In addition, the cap is not clearly stated in the new law because
there are words missing, meaning the amended act can be interpreted in
three ways, Sejpal said. The government gazette published on Sept. 1
sets the maximum interest rate that can be charged for a credit
facility in Kenya at “no more than four percent, the base rate set and
published” by the central bank.

That could mean that banks charge no more than 4 percent above the
CBR, no more than 4 percent of the CBR, or no more than four
percentage points above the CBR, Sejpal said. Banks have adopted the
third interpretation.

The Nairobi All Share made it 3 Up Days in a row and closed +0.12
points at 130.87.
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed 11.67 points to close at 3,180.29.
Equity Turnover clocked 581.916m versus 1.991b previously.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


There was an interesting story on the web site Teron Futures which
speculated that the purpose of Mr. Zuckerberg's visit to Nairobi was
to see whether Facebook might be able to snaffle up M-Pesa, which is
an interesting [if speculative] projection. Safaricom closed unchanged
at 19.00 and traded 6.426m shares.

Kenya Airways retreated -4.22% to close at 3.40 and traded heavy
volume of 4.89m shares.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


KCB Group followed on yesterdays +1.90% gain to firm a further +0.934%
to close at 27.00 and was trading at session highs of 27.75 +3.74% at
the Finish. The Two day bounce has been on solid volume action with
KCB trading 8.256m shares worth 222.977m. Buyers outpace Sellers by a
Factor of 2 to 1 signalling firm conditions underfoot.
Equity Group firmed +0.96% to close at 26.25 and traded 2.735m shares.
Sellers outpace Buyers by a Factor of 2 to 1, for now.
Diamond Trust Bank was marked down -6.04% to close at 140.00 and on
good ticket size of 204,300 shares. DTB is -12.5% since the
Announcement of the Interest rate Cap Bill.

The Business Daily reported that Centum Investments has changed its
rules to allow it buy back shares from the market at a time the
management and board believe the stock is undervalued at the Nairobi
Securities Exchange (NSE). Centum's current share price trades at a
more than 30% discount to its Net Asset Value [NAV]. This report was
the catalyst for a +6.57% surge in the Price today. Centum closed at
40.50 and was trading at Limit Up 41.75 +9.87% at the closing Bell.
Centum traded 620,400 shares and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor
of 7 to 1 at the Finale.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


KenGen rallied +3.97% to close at a 5 week high of 6.55 and traded
576,300 shares. There were buyers for 3x the volume traded at the
Finish Line. KenGen has the Rights Issue behind it now and has room
for a substantial rally from what is an egregiously oversold position.

Trans-Century maintained its record breaking run to close +9.15%
better at 8.95. Trans-Century has rallied +98.88% since 26th August.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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