|
Wednesday 06th of January 2016 |
Morning Africa |
Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts |
read more |
|
Obama’s Middle East Balancing Act Tilts Toward Iran @BV @joshrogin @EliLake Law & Politics |
As the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia heats up, the Barack Obama administration is trying to straddle the fence and not take sides, but its actions tell a different story -- they all seem to favor Tehran.
Following the Saudi government’s announcement Saturday that it had executed 47 prisoners, including a popular Shiite cleric, the U.S. State Department did two things. First, it issued a statement expressing concern that Riyadh’s actions were “exacerbating sectarian tensions.” Then Secretary of State John Kerry called Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, urging him to try to de-escalate the crisis.
Spokesmen for the White House and State Department on Monday insisted that the U.S. was not taking a side, and that Kerry was set to call Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. But U.S. and Arab diplomats tell us that America's Gulf allies, who feel most threatened by Iran, see things very differently.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator who is a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, said that the Obama administration sees the Iran deal as the one stabilizing factor in a region that is increasingly spinning out of control, and is therefore giving the U.S.-Iranian relationship top priority.
“The Iranians hold the Obama legacy in their hands,” he said. “We are constrained and we are acquiescing to a certain degree to ensure we maintain a functional relationship with the Iranians.”
That's certainly the signal the Saudis are sending. At this point, the message couldn't be any clearer. If Obama won't punish Iran, Saudi Arabia will.
Conclusions
|
read more |
|
28-OCT-2013 ::@BarackObama and @HassanRouhani The 2 Husseins Law & Politics |
THE recent rapprochement between President Barack Obama and Iran's Hassan Rouhani has certainly snapped a losing sequence in US-Iran relations that goes all the way back to the Iranian revolution in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini overthrew Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran. The Shah was the second and last monarch of the House of Pahlavi and otherwise known as the peacock throne. Hussein [Barack Hussein Obama] and Hassan [Rouhani] share the same name as did Prophet Muhammed's revered grandsons. Those who pursue the study of anthroponymy [personal names] especially in the Islamic World probably view this as very fortuitous.
I was wandering around the Hirshhorn Gallery in Washington last year and I came across this from the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei:
What's in a name?
A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich, all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the expectant blessings of kindness and virtue.
Hussein and Hassan are going to cut through a great deal of interference. In this situation, there are powerful vested interests fully invested in the status quo. If the pax Americana in the Middle East were a three legged stool with the US the most important leg, then Israel and Saudi Arabia are the other two legs of that stool. Neither Riyadh nor Tel Aviv are aligned with President Obama's Iranian rapprochement and Saudi Arabia in particular has become increasingly forthright and is even threatening its own pivot and away from the US.
|
read more |
|
@Aiww What's in a Name? Law & Politics |
What's in a name?
A name is the first and final marker of individual rights, one fixed part of the ever-changing human world. A name is the most basic characteristic of our human rights: No matter how poor or how rich, all living people have a name, and it is endowed with good wishes, the expectant blessings of kindness and virtue. |
read more |
|
CHIEF ECONOMIST INTERVIEW The Global Economy in 2016 @IMFNews Law & Politics |
IMF Survey: What are the other key issues we need to pay attention to in 2016?
Obstfeld: China will remain high on the list. Its economy is slowing as it transitions from investment and manufacturing to consumption and services. But the global spillovers from China’s reduced rate of growth, through its diminished imports and lower demand for commodities, have been much larger than we would have anticipated. Serious challenges to restructuring remain in terms of state-owned enterprise balance sheet weaknesses, the financial markets, and the general flexibility and rationality of resource allocation. Growth below the authorities’ official targets could again spook global financial markets—but then again, time-honored methods of enforcing growth targets could simply extend economic imbalances, spelling possible trouble down the road.
IMF Survey: Will 2016 be the year of Emerging Markets? Are capital outflows from emerging market countries a growing worry?
Obstfeld: The year will offer an abundance of challenges, but yes, emerging markets will be at center stage. Capital inflows are down, some reserves have been spent, sovereign spreads have widened, currencies have weakened, and growth is slowing sharply in some countries. Currency depreciation has proved so far to be an extremely useful buffer for a range of economic shocks. Sharp further falls in commodity prices, including energy, however, would lead to even more problems for exporters, including sharper currency depreciations that potentially trigger still-hidden balance sheet vulnerabilities or spark inflation.
The mood in financial markets is glum as 2015 ends, and susceptible to increased volatility, notwithstanding continuing accommodation by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. Of course, the U.S. Federal Reserve launched in December what it intends to be a cycle of gradual interest-rate hikes. It will be critical how the Fed manages subsequent interest-rate increases during 2016 and how it communicates with the market—a task it seems to have commenced on the right foot at the end of 2015. But there is no doubt that global financial conditions are tightening, and emerging and developing markets are especially sensitive to the effects, given other current woes.
|
read more |
|
IMF chief says not in Nigeria to negotiate loan, calls for wider revenue base Africa |
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday she was not in Nigeria to negotiate a loan and urged Africa's biggest economy to diversify its revenue to try and get out of an economic crisis fuelled by the fall in oil prices.
Lagarde was speaking at the presidential villa in the capital Abuja moments after holding talks with President Muhammadu Buhari. She backed Buhari's fight against corruption terming it "very important" and said the president's reform push could have a positive impact in the region.
|
read more |
|
IMF's Lagarde Says Nigeria Needs Flexibility in Monetary Policy @business Africa |
Nigeria needs more flexibility in setting monetary policy so it can use its foreign currency reserves to support the poor population if low oil prices persist, said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
“With a very clear ambition to support the poor people of Nigeria, there could be added flexibility in the monetary policy, particularly if, as we think, the price of oil is likely to be lower for longer,” Lagarde told reporters in the Nigerian capital of Abuja after a closed-door meeting with President Muhammadu Buhari and members of his cabinet.
Lagarde’s comments come a week after Buhari said he doesn’t personally support weakening the naira and would need to be convinced that devaluing the local currency of Africa’s largest oil producer is the best course to take for the economy.
The naira has been all but fixed at 197-199 per dollar since early March. The central bank has curbed foreign-exchange trading and introduced import controls after the naira fell to a record low as crude prices plunged. Oil accounts for 95 percent of Nigeria’s export earnings and 70 percent of government revenues.
“Clearly, the authorities should not deplete the reserves of the country simply because of rules that could be exceedingly rigid,” she said. “I’m not suggesting that rigidity be entirely removed, but some degree of flexibility will be helpful.”
Lagarde, who’s on the second day of a four-day trip to Nigeria and Cameroon, said she would be meeting with Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele.
Conclusions
Lagarde providing cover for the Authorities to make a move on the Naira?
|
read more |
|
French tycoon Guy Wildenstein faces tax fraud charges linked to Kenya’s Ol Jogi ranch resort Kenyan Economy |
A lavish holiday ranch located in Kenya’s Laikipia plains is at the heart of a multi-million euro tax evasion battle whose hearing began on Monday in a Paris court.
French authorities accuse owners of Ol Jogi Ranch – the setting for award-winning film Out of Africa – of hatching a tax fraud scheme that has cost the European nation millions of euros in uncollected taxes.
French prosecutors say the wealthy art-collecting Wildenstein family, which also owns the holiday ranch, has been running the fraudulent scheme for years and are seeking to recover millions of euros through the suit.
Guy Wildenstein, who inherited his father’s vast estate and a close associate of former French president Nicholas Sarkozy, was on Monday arraigned on multiple charges of tax fraud and money laundering that carry a 10-year jail term if found guilty.
French authorities are demanding €550 million (Sh60.9 billion) in unpaid taxes from Mr Wildenstein, who is accused of hiding the Ol Jogi Ranch, rare art collections, prime properties, and pedigree racehorses from the taxman and laundering huge sums of cash.
“It also included a vast real estate portfolio, with the jewel in the crown a luxury Kenyan ranch,” reported French news agency AFP. “Such assets were in the main registered in tax havens in a series of trusts,” the AFP said.
Daniel Wildenstein (deceased), a world renowned art collector, acquired the wildlife sanctuary which sits on the Laikipia plateau in 1977.
Court documents filed in Paris say Guy had in 2012 declared the family’s vast estate to be worth €40.9 million (Sh4.5 billion) but French authorities estimate that the estate could be worth as much as €4 billion (Sh443 billion).
|
read more |
|
The US ready to invest Sh2.4 billion in Kenyan oil industry Nation Kenyan Economy |
The American Government Tuesday expressed interest in funding construction of an oil pipeline linking northern Kenya oil fields to Lamu, upping its stake in the Lappset project.
Initially designed and planned to be funded by Chinese, the US says it is ready to invest in the Sh2.4 billion project to open up northern Kenya and link up landlocked South Sudan and Ethiopia to the Lamu port.
US Ambassador to Kenya, Mr Robert Godec, said his government would help secure funding to a tune of Sh1.4 billion towards the oil pipeline and power generation projects thereby fast-tracking the government’s pledge to export oil as well as provide locals with cheap electricity.
“Commercially viable oil reserves were discovered in 2012 but to date nothing has happened which makes Kenyans wonder what happened. We are confident that the PowerAfrika initiative will help us realise our pledge to Kenyans,” said newly appointed Energy Cabinet Secretary Alfred Keter adding that extra funds will also be sourced through the Export-Import Bank.
Conclusions
I have a lot of doubts about LAPPSET because of the Crude Oil Price Curve. If the Americans can pull this out of the Hat - That will be a big Win
|
read more |
|
CBK injected Sh76bn to soften Imperial Bank closure impact @BD_Africa Kenyan Economy |
The Central Bank of Kenya has injected Sh76.6 billion net liquidity into the market over the last 10 weeks after the collapse of Imperial Bank, underlining the impact the closure had on the country’s financial system.
In the 10 weeks before the closure, the regulator had mopped up Sh28.3 billion from the market as it sought to support a weak shilling.
“The CBK stands ready to use all instruments at its disposal to provide adequate liquidity support to the banking system to ensure its stability and robustness at this time,” said the CBK governor Patrick Njoroge, after the collapse of the lender.
|
read more |
|
21 DEC 15 The Teflon Shilling and Other Matters @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
Oil accounts for about a quarter of Kenya’s annual import bill. According to latest data, Kenya imported Sh177.2 billion worth of fuel and lubricants between January and September, a 34.66 per cent drop from the Sh271.2 billion it took in during the same period last year. That’s a Sh94 billion swing and nearly a $1 billion. That’s $1 billion of dollar demand that has evaporated. Since September, the price of fuel has tanked more than 20 per cent further accelerating this trend. Earlier in the year, I spoke of how this $1 billion boost would underpin our economy by providing a powerful grassroots stimulus. However, what has happened is that the government has creamed off a great deal of this by raising taxes on the price of fuel and thereby improving its fiscal position and this has blunted the price move at the pump.
Other factors that are supporting the shilling are the bona fides of the Central Banker. The regime change at the apex bank has been extremely well received by the markets.
The political hullabaloo around the Eurobond is now being discounted because no one in fact believes that there was a Sh140 billion heist.
|
read more |
|
|
|
|