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Friday 08th of January 2016 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts |
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Boys and their Toys @rmakenya Johannesburg @Jaguar @JaguarSA Africa |
“Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!” ― Hunter S. Thompson, The Proud Highway: Saga of a Desperate Southern Gentleman, 1955-1967
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Gaddafi gave a warning in part borne out by future events: “They [jihadis] want to control the Mediterranean and then they will attack Europe.” Law & Politics |
In the first call, at 11.15am on 25 February 2011, Gaddafi gave a warning in part borne out by future events: “They [jihadis] want to control the Mediterranean and then they will attack Europe.”
In the second call, at 3.25pm the same day, the Libyan leader said: “We are not fighting them, they are attacking us. I want to tell you the truth. It is not a difficult situation at all. The story is simply this: an organisation has laid down sleeping cells in north Africa. Called the al-Qaida organisation in north Africa … The sleeping cells in Libya are similar to dormant cells in America before 9/11.”
Gaddafi added: “I will have to arm the people and get ready for a fight. Libyan people will die, damage will be on the Med, Europe and the whole world. These armed groups are using the situation [in Libya] as a justification – and we shall fight them.”
Three weeks after the calls, a Nato-led coalition that included Britain began bombing raids that led to the overthrow of Gaddafi. He was finally deposed in August and murdered by opponents of his regime in October.
Conclusions
No thought went into the day after. never does. What has come after is far worse than what existed before.
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Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011 Law & Politics |
I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful message. And today Marshall McLuhan’s prediction in The Gutenberg Galaxy (1962) that ‘The new electronic interdependence recreates the world in the image of a global village’ has come to pass. The image of a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.
Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that message being;
‘Don’t Fxxk with us! Because you will end up dead and a trophy souvenir in a fridge.’
That same person is probably repeating Muammar’s comment, “I tell the coward crusaders: I live in a place where you can’t get me. I live in the hearts of millions.”
And asking ‘Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?’
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Volatility in the energy market has helped to destabilize governments in the past Law & Politics |
Volatility in the energy market has helped to destabilize governments in the past: the Soviet Union under Gorbachev, the Suharto regime in Indonesia, or Venezuela just prior to the ascent of Hugo Chavez. So, it’s not far-fetched to imagine the winds of change blowing through Saudi Arabia — or Russia, where the economic situation is edging toward desperate, or Iran, which is anxious to see the lifting of economic sanctions as a result of the nuclear deal.
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China Stocks Gain in Volatile Trade as Circuit Breaker Scrapped International Trade |
"The scrapping of the circuit breaker system will help to stabilize the market, but a sense of panic will remain, particularly among retail investors," said Li Jingyuan, general manager at Shanghai Bingsheng Asset Management. "The ‘national team’ will probably continue to buy stocks significantly to stabilize the market."
Conclusions
Scrapping the Circuit Breakers was the best Option.
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China's 29 Minutes of Chaos: Stunned Brokers and a Race to Sell International Trade |
Even by the rough-and-tumble standards of China’s stock market, it was a chaotic 29 minutes. With share prices going into free fall almost as soon as local exchanges opened, market gurus at Huaxi Securities Co. were at a loss to explain why. One manager of $46 million in Shanghai liquidated all his holdings. Other investors, including a top-performing hedge fund, tried in vain to cash out as circuit breakers brought trading to an abrupt halt. By 9:59 a.m. local time it was all over -- except that it wasn’t. Next came a torrent of calls from angry clients upset by the carnage in a week that’s seen two abbreviated trading sessions and a 12 percent tumble in the benchmark CSI 300 Index. And it’s only January 7th. "We are dealing with a flood of angry phone calls from clients complaining about the market plunge and the circuit breaker," said Wei Wei, an analyst at Huaxi Securities in Shanghai. "We are also feeling at a loss and confused today as we didn’t quite figure out what was going on in the market."
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Saudi Arabia is considering an IPO of Aramco, probably the world’s most valuable company Economist Commodities |
SAUDI ARABIA is thinking about listing shares in Saudi Aramco, the state-owned company that is the world’s biggest oil producer and almost certainly the world’s most valuable company. Muhammad bin Salman, the kingdom’s deputy crown prince and power behind the throne of his father, King Salman, has told The Economist that a decision will be taken in the next few months. “Personally I’m enthusiastic about this step,” he said. “I believe it is in the interest of the Saudi market, and it is in the interest of Aramco.”
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Somalia Cuts Diplomatic Ties With Iran Citing Threat to Security Africa |
Somalia’s government cut diplomatic ties with Iran and recalled its envoys after accusing the Iranian Embassy of establishing sects that pose a threat to national security in the Horn of Africa nation.
Iranian diplomats have been “directly involved in meddling with internal Somali affairs and have carried out measures that are a threat to our national security,” Somali Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke’s office said in a statement e-mailed Thursday from the capital, Mogadishu. It said Shiite Muslim sects established in Somalia by the unidentified diplomats were similar to those that exist in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
Iranian diplomats were given 72 hours to leave the country, according to a separate statement issued by Somalia’s Foreign Ministry.
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Global Economic Prospects Spillovers amid Weak Growth World Bank Africa |
Emerging market economies have been an engine of global growth during the 2000s, especially after the 2007-08 global financial crisis. However, times are changing. Growth rates in several emerging market economies have been declining since 2010. The global economy will need to adapt to a new period of more modest growth in large emerging markets, characterized by lower commodity prices and diminished flows of trade and capital. This is the message that underlies this issue of the World Bank Group’s Global Economic Prospects.
Looking ahead, global growth is poised to recover modestly, by 2.9 percent in 2016, after (once again) falling short of expectations at 2.4 percent in 2015
All this does not rule out the fact that there is a low-probability risk of disorderly slowdown in major emerging markets, as U.S. interest rates rise after a long break and the US dollar strengthens, and as a result of geopolitical concerns.
GLOBAL GDP Growth SSA 2015E 3.4% 2016E 4.2% 2017 4.7% Nigeria 2015E 3.3% Angola 2015E 3.00%
Sub-Saharan Africa. Growth slowed to an estimated 3.4 percent in 2015, the lowest rate since 2009, due to low commodity prices and infrastructure constraints.
Further weakness in global commodity prices could result in even sharper fiscal and currency adjustments. It could also lead to delays in investments in energy and mining, particularly in East African countries. Fiscal risks are elevated in several countries in East Africa, relating to sharp increases in public debt due to large infrastructure projects, public-private partnerships, contingent liabilities, and devolution processes (Mauro et al. 2015).
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Dhlakama boasts that Renamo “will govern” in March Africa |
In an interview published in Wednesday’s issue of the anti-government weekly “Canal de Mocambique”, Dhlakama ruled out any talks with President Filipe Nyusi, despite Nyusi’s repeated invitations to a face-to-face meeting in Maputo.
There were no contacts between Renamo and the government, he claimed. “We’re not interested. Negotiate what?”, asked Dhlakama, “We negotiated the General Peace Agreement (in 1992) so that all institutions would function with democratic rules. Frelimo didn’t want it and nothing functioned”.
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Naira Forwards Hint Nigeria May Be Next to Devalue: Chart [Inevitable Predictable and Predicted] Africa |
The three-month naira non-deliverable forward price climbed to 238 on Thursday, its highest point since mid-February. The Abuja-Based central bank has held the naira at 197 to 199 per dollar since early March, but recent comments by President Muhammadu Buhari and further falls in oil prices have prompted speculation the central bank could change policy. NDFs are more accessible to foreign investors because they’re traded offshore and exempt from local dealing restrictions on the currency. Africa’s other main oil producer, Angola, devalued earlier this week.
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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.80% 2016 Africa |
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.25% 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
Auction prices for African animals ranging from buffaloes to rare antelope plunged last year http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/africa-buffaloes-antelope-caught-in-china-driven-commodity-rout
Auction prices for African animals ranging from buffaloes to rare antelope plunged last year, joining a global slump in commodities and ending almost a decade of rising values that some in the industry have described as a bubble.
The average African savanna buffalo cost 334,879 rand ($21,800) in 2015, 30 percent lower than the previous year, according to data compiled by Flippie Cloete of the environmental science department at South Africa’s North West University. Prices of sable and roan, both types of antelope, dropped 35 percent and 39 percent respectively.
Before last year, prices for some wildlife in South Africa had risen more than fivefold in six years as the country’s hunting industry grew and farmers decided to switch from raising cattle to breeding game. The game-ranching industry was valued at almost 12 billion rand and growing by 10 percent a year, Barclays Africa Group Ltd. estimated in 2014.
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Kenya is again set to be one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa with a growth rate of 5.7 per cent Kenyan Economy |
Kenya is again set to be one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, although its growth rate of 5.7 per cent is still below East African neighbours Tanzania and Ethiopia according to the latest World Bank Global Economic Prospects for 2016.
The report, released Thursday predicts that the country will again be amongst the top dozen performing countries in the continent, in terms of growth and that rates will increase to 6.1 per cent in both 2016 and 2017.
Growth predictions are above that of Uganda (5 per cent) but below Tanzania (7.2), Rwanda (7.6) and Ethiopia on a staggering 10.2 per cent but still well above average rates in Africa and other emerging economies.
The World Bank says that sub-Saharan Africa as a whole is forecast to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2016 from 3.4 per cent in 2015 as commodity prices stabilise.
Conclusions
Kenya will be a Bright Spot in 2016 in SSA
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N.S.E Today |
It has been an extraordinary and unprecedented first week in 2016 in the financial markets and reminded me of Hunter. S Thompson “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!” It has been an extraordinary ride this week with China very much at the Bleeding Edge. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 2 percent higher this morning after falling as much as 2.2 percent earlier. Regulators removed the circuit breakers after plunges this week closed trading early on Monday and Thursday. Crude Oil traded 11 Year Lows this week and it is now widely expected that President Buhari will capitulate in Nigeria and devalue the Naira. The Forwards are pricing in a 20.1% Naira devaluation. The Nairobi Securities Exchange has been an Oasis of stability in a very volatile week but was not able to fight the Tide today. The Nairobi All share corrected -1.02% to close at 145.24 The Nairobi NSE20 retreated 63.20 points to close at 3940.42 Equity Turnover surged to clock 1.584b shillings with Kenya Commercial Bank the Stand-Out and trading 26.515m shares which is a big ticket.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom eased -0.61% to close at 16.40 and traded 6.271m shares. I expect a move to 17.00 in January.
Nation Media was marked down 5.376% to close at 176.00 on light trading of 1,600 shares. Standard Group by contrast was high ticked +9.73% to close at 31.00 on just 100 shares traded.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya Commercial Bank had a Banner session and traded 26.515m shares worth 1.106b and closed at a weighted average of 41.72 which mean the official closing was 41.50 -0.6%. Kenya Commercial Bank is +3.75% since making the announcement about the New HoldCo Structure. The sharply elevated volume today confirms that there is muscular Buy-side Demand from 40.00+
.@KCBGroup share price data here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D
Equity Group traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased back -1.91% to close at 38.50 and traded 5.387m shares worth 208.155m. Equity Group was, however, trading session highs of 40.00 +1.91% at the Finale. CFC Stanbic firmed +0.62% to close at 81.50 and traded 913,700 shares. CFC Stanbic has seen some fast-paced volume action this week.
Jubilee Insurance rallied +2.51% to close at 490.00 and traded 3,700 shares.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
Atlas Development and Support Services rallied +7.14% to close at 2.25. Atlas was the worse performing share at the Securities Exchange in 2015.
Home Afrika had Sellers for more than 2m shares showing on the board and retreated -8.11% to close at 1.70. Home Afrika rallied +85.71% 1 month through End December 2015. At The End of 2015 Home Afrika issued a Profits Warning and has corrected 34.61% since issuing that Warning.
Home Afrika Profits Warnings here http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Home%20Afrika%20-Profit%20Warning%20-%20FY%202015.pdf
Transcentury rallied +5.26% to close at 9.00 and traded 287,700 shares.
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