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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 08th of January 2016
 
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Macro Thoughts

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Mario Andretti If everything seems under control you're just not going fast enough
Africa


“The Edge... There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.”
― Hunter S. Thompson, Hell's Angels: A Strange and Terrible Saga

read more



Boys and their Toys @rmakenya Johannesburg @Jaguar @JaguarSA
Africa


“Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of
arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to
skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally
worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!”
― Hunter S. Thompson, The Proud Highway: Saga of a Desperate Southern
Gentleman, 1955-1967

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Hunter S. Thompson
Africa


“Speed now illuminates reality whereas light once gave objects of the
world their shape.” ― Paul Virilio

read more





"Because a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the beginning of a major catastrophe in the region... For sure we will not allow any such thing." Prince Mohammed bin Salman
Law & Politics

Asked about the possibility of war, Prince Mohammed bin Salman told
the Economist magazine: "It is something that we do not foresee at
all, and whoever is pushing towards that is somebody who is not in
their right mind.

"Because a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the beginning of a
major catastrophe in the region... For sure we will not allow any such
thing."

Iran accuses Saudi Arabia of embassy air strike in Yemen

The deputy crown prince, widely thought to wield considerable power in
the monarchy, also defended the kingdom's execution of Nimr in the
interview with the London-based magazine.

Conclusions

Good to know.

read more


Gaddafi gave a warning in part borne out by future events: “They [jihadis] want to control the Mediterranean and then they will attack Europe.”
Law & Politics


In the first call, at 11.15am on 25 February 2011, Gaddafi gave a
warning in part borne out by future events: “They [jihadis] want to
control the Mediterranean and then they will attack Europe.”

In the second call, at 3.25pm the same day, the Libyan leader said:
“We are not fighting them, they are attacking us. I want to tell you
the truth. It is not a difficult situation at all. The story is simply
this: an organisation has laid down sleeping cells in north Africa.
Called the al-Qaida organisation in north Africa … The sleeping cells
in Libya are similar to dormant cells in America before 9/11.”

Gaddafi added: “I will have to arm the people and get ready for a
fight. Libyan people will die, damage will be on the Med, Europe and
the whole world. These armed groups are using the situation [in Libya]
as a justification – and we shall fight them.”

Three weeks after the calls, a Nato-led coalition that included
Britain began bombing raids that led to the overthrow of Gaddafi. He
was finally deposed in August and murdered by opponents of his regime
in October.

Conclusions

No thought went into the day after. never does. What has come after is
far worse than what existed before.

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Gaddafi's Body in a Freezer - What's the Message? 24th October 2011
Law & Politics


I am left thinking, this dead Gaddafi business is one powerful
message. And today Marshall McLuhan’s prediction in The Gutenberg
Galaxy (1962) that ‘The new electronic interdependence recreates the
world in the image of a global village’ has come to pass. The image of
a bloodied Gaddafi, then of a dead Gaddafi in a meat locker have
flashed around the world via the mobile, YouTube and Twitter.

Who is in charge of the messaging? Through the fog of real time and
raw footage, I note a very powerful message. The essence of that
message being;

‘Don’t Fxxk with us! Because you will end up dead and a trophy
souvenir in a fridge.’

That same person is probably repeating Muammar’s comment, “I tell the
coward crusaders: I live in a place where you can’t get me. I live in
the hearts of millions.”

And asking ‘Really? Are You? Or are you now very dead and in a meat locker?’

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Oregon rancher: God told me to invade the wildlife refuge
Law & Politics


Conclusions


Funny how many Folks think they have a direct line to God.

read more


Volatility in the energy market has helped to destabilize governments in the past
Law & Politics


Volatility in the energy market has helped to destabilize governments
in the past: the Soviet Union under Gorbachev, the Suharto regime in
Indonesia, or Venezuela just prior to the ascent of Hugo Chavez. So,
it’s not far-fetched to imagine the winds of change blowing through
Saudi Arabia — or Russia, where the economic situation is edging
toward desperate, or Iran, which is anxious to see the lifting of
economic sanctions as a result of the nuclear deal.

read more


China Stocks Gain in Volatile Trade as Circuit Breaker Scrapped
International Trade


"The scrapping of the circuit breaker system will help to stabilize
the market, but a sense of panic will remain, particularly among
retail investors," said Li Jingyuan, general manager at Shanghai
Bingsheng Asset Management. "The ‘national team’ will probably
continue to buy stocks significantly to stabilize the market."

Conclusions

Scrapping the Circuit Breakers was the best Option.

read more



“China has a major adjustment problem,” Soros said Thursday at an economic forum in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
International Trade


“I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial
markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we
had in 2008.”

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China's 29 Minutes of Chaos: Stunned Brokers and a Race to Sell
International Trade


Even by the rough-and-tumble standards of China’s stock market, it was
a chaotic 29 minutes.
With share prices going into free fall almost as soon as local
exchanges opened, market gurus at Huaxi Securities Co. were at a loss
to explain why. One manager of $46 million in Shanghai liquidated all
his holdings. Other investors, including a top-performing hedge fund,
tried in vain to cash out as circuit breakers brought trading to an
abrupt halt.
By 9:59 a.m. local time it was all over -- except that it wasn’t. Next
came a torrent of calls from angry clients upset by the carnage in a
week that’s seen two abbreviated trading sessions and a 12 percent
tumble in the benchmark CSI 300 Index. And it’s only January 7th.
"We are dealing with a flood of angry phone calls from clients
complaining about the market plunge and the circuit breaker," said Wei
Wei, an analyst at Huaxi Securities in Shanghai. "We are also feeling
at a loss and confused today as we didn’t quite figure out what was
going on in the market."

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0893
Dollar Index 98.68
Japan Yen 118.49
Swiss Franc 0.9988
Pound 1.4620
Aussie 0.7055
India Rupee 66.655
South Korea Won 1198.33
Brazil Real 4.0438
Egypt Pound 7.8265
South Africa Rand 15.3947

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Saudi Arabia is considering an IPO of Aramco, probably the world’s most valuable company Economist
Commodities


SAUDI ARABIA is thinking about listing shares in Saudi Aramco, the
state-owned company that is the world’s biggest oil producer and
almost certainly the world’s most valuable company. Muhammad bin
Salman, the kingdom’s deputy crown prince and power behind the throne
of his father, King Salman, has told The Economist that a decision
will be taken in the next few months. “Personally I’m enthusiastic
about this step,” he said. “I believe it is in the interest of the
Saudi market, and it is in the interest of Aramco.”

read more




Somalia Cuts Diplomatic Ties With Iran Citing Threat to Security
Africa


Somalia’s government cut diplomatic ties with Iran and recalled its
envoys after accusing the Iranian Embassy of establishing sects that
pose a threat to national security in the Horn of Africa nation.

Iranian diplomats have been “directly involved in meddling with
internal Somali affairs and have carried out measures that are a
threat to our national security,” Somali Prime Minister Omar
Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke’s office said in a statement e-mailed
Thursday from the capital, Mogadishu. It said Shiite Muslim sects
established in Somalia by the unidentified diplomats were similar to
those that exist in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.

Iranian diplomats were given 72 hours to leave the country, according
to a separate statement issued by Somalia’s Foreign Ministry.

read more


Global Economic Prospects Spillovers amid Weak Growth World Bank
Africa


Emerging market economies have been an engine of global growth during
the 2000s, especially after the 2007-08 global financial crisis.
However, times are changing. Growth rates in several emerging market
economies have been declining since 2010. The global economy will need
to adapt to a new period of more modest growth in large emerging
markets, characterized by lower commodity prices and diminished flows
of trade and capital. This is the message that underlies this issue of
the World Bank Group’s Global Economic Prospects.

Looking ahead, global growth is poised to recover modestly, by 2.9
percent in 2016, after (once again) falling short of expectations at
2.4 percent in 2015

 All this does not rule out the fact that there is a low-probability
risk of disorderly slowdown in major emerging markets, as U.S.
interest rates rise after a long break and the US dollar strengthens,
and as a result of geopolitical concerns.

GLOBAL GDP Growth
SSA 2015E 3.4% 2016E 4.2% 2017 4.7%
Nigeria 2015E 3.3%
Angola 2015E 3.00%

Sub-Saharan Africa. Growth slowed to an estimated 3.4 percent in 2015,
the lowest rate since 2009, due to low commodity prices and
infrastructure constraints.

Further weakness in global commodity prices could result in even
sharper fiscal and currency adjustments. It could also lead to delays
in investments in energy and mining, particularly in East African
countries. Fiscal risks are elevated in several countries in East
Africa, relating to sharp increases in public debt due to large
infrastructure projects, public-private partnerships, contingent
liabilities, and devolution processes (Mauro et al. 2015).

read more


Dhlakama boasts that Renamo “will govern” in March
Africa


In an interview published in Wednesday’s issue of the anti-government
weekly “Canal de Mocambique”, Dhlakama ruled out any talks with
President Filipe Nyusi, despite Nyusi’s repeated invitations to a
face-to-face meeting in Maputo.

There were no contacts between Renamo and the government, he claimed.
“We’re not interested. Negotiate what?”, asked Dhlakama, “We
negotiated the General Peace Agreement (in 1992) so that all
institutions would function with democratic rules. Frelimo didn’t want
it and nothing functioned”.

read more


South Africa's business confidence at lowest in more than two decades
Africa


South Africa's business confidence index fell to its lowest in 23
years in December after the sacking of the finance minister and
instability in financial markets after the expected U.S. hike in
interest rates, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to 79.6 from 82.7 in
November, it's lowest level in 2015.

read more


South Africa's financial hub Johannesburg hit a record temperature of 37 degrees Celsius on Thursday, the South African Weather Service said
Africa


The previous record of 36.5 degrees Celsius was recorded in November
2015, the weather service said.

Temperatures in the capital Pretoria equalled a record high of 41
degrees Celsius with the latest rolling heat wave to scorch South
Africa expected to last until Friday.

read more




Naira Forwards Hint Nigeria May Be Next to Devalue: Chart [Inevitable Predictable and Predicted]
Africa


The three-month naira non-deliverable forward price climbed to 238 on
Thursday, its highest point since mid-February. The Abuja-Based
central bank has held the naira at 197 to 199 per dollar since early
March, but recent comments by President Muhammadu Buhari and further
falls in oil prices have prompted speculation the central bank could
change policy. NDFs are more accessible to foreign investors because
they’re traded offshore and exempt from local dealing restrictions on
the currency. Africa’s other main oil producer, Angola, devalued
earlier this week.

read more


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.80% 2016
Africa


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.25% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Auction prices for African animals ranging from buffaloes to rare
antelope plunged last year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/africa-buffaloes-antelope-caught-in-china-driven-commodity-rout

Auction prices for African animals ranging from buffaloes to rare
antelope plunged last year, joining a global slump in commodities and
ending almost a decade of rising values that some in the industry have
described as a bubble.

The average African savanna buffalo cost 334,879 rand ($21,800) in
2015, 30 percent lower than the previous year, according to data
compiled by Flippie Cloete of the environmental science department at
South Africa’s North West University. Prices of sable and roan, both
types of antelope, dropped 35 percent and 39 percent respectively.

Before last year, prices for some wildlife in South Africa had risen
more than fivefold in six years as the country’s hunting industry grew
and farmers decided to switch from raising cattle to breeding game.
The game-ranching industry was valued at almost 12 billion rand and
growing by 10 percent a year, Barclays Africa Group Ltd. estimated in
2014.

read more




Kenya is again set to be one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa with a growth rate of 5.7 per cent
Kenyan Economy


Kenya is again set to be one of the fastest-growing economies in
Africa, although its growth rate of 5.7 per cent is still below East
African neighbours Tanzania and Ethiopia according to the latest World
Bank Global Economic Prospects for 2016.

The report, released Thursday predicts that the country will again be
amongst the top dozen performing countries in the continent, in terms
of growth and that rates will increase to 6.1 per cent in both 2016
and 2017.

Growth predictions are above that of Uganda (5 per cent) but below
Tanzania (7.2), Rwanda (7.6) and Ethiopia on a staggering 10.2 per
cent but still well above average rates in Africa and other emerging
economies.

The World Bank says that sub-Saharan Africa as a whole is forecast to
grow by 4.2 per cent in 2016 from 3.4 per cent in 2015 as commodity
prices stabilise.

Conclusions

Kenya will be a Bright Spot in 2016 in SSA

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.20
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.71% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

146.74 -0.07 -0.05%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.93% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

4,003.11 -5.42 -0.14%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today


It has been an extraordinary and unprecedented first week in 2016 in
the financial markets and reminded me of Hunter. S Thompson
“Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of
arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to
skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally
worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!”
It has been an extraordinary ride this week with China very much at
the Bleeding Edge. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 2 percent
higher this morning after falling as much as 2.2 percent earlier.
Regulators removed the circuit breakers after plunges this week closed
trading early on Monday and Thursday.
Crude Oil traded 11 Year Lows this week and it is now widely expected
that President Buhari will capitulate in Nigeria and devalue the
Naira. The Forwards are pricing in a 20.1% Naira devaluation.
The Nairobi Securities Exchange has been an Oasis of stability in a
very volatile week but was not able to fight the Tide today.
The Nairobi All share corrected -1.02% to close at 145.24
The Nairobi NSE20 retreated 63.20 points to close at 3940.42
Equity Turnover surged to clock 1.584b shillings with Kenya Commercial
Bank the Stand-Out and trading 26.515m shares which is a big ticket.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased -0.61% to close at 16.40 and traded 6.271m shares. I
expect a move to 17.00 in January.

Nation Media was marked down 5.376% to close at 176.00 on light
trading of 1,600 shares.
Standard Group by contrast was high ticked +9.73% to close at 31.00 on
just 100 shares traded.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Kenya Commercial Bank had a Banner session and traded 26.515m shares
worth 1.106b and closed at a weighted average of 41.72 which mean the
official closing was 41.50 -0.6%. Kenya Commercial Bank is +3.75%
since making the announcement about the New HoldCo Structure. The
sharply elevated volume today confirms that there is muscular Buy-side
Demand from 40.00+

.@KCBGroup share price data here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D

Equity Group traded 2nd at the Exchange and eased back -1.91% to close
at 38.50 and traded 5.387m shares worth 208.155m. Equity Group was,
however, trading session highs of 40.00 +1.91% at the Finale.
CFC Stanbic firmed +0.62% to close at 81.50 and traded 913,700 shares.
CFC Stanbic has seen some fast-paced volume action this week.

Jubilee Insurance rallied +2.51% to close at 490.00 and traded 3,700 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Atlas Development and Support Services
rallied +7.14% to close at
2.25. Atlas was the worse performing share at the Securities Exchange
in 2015.

Home Afrika had Sellers for more than 2m shares showing on the board
and retreated -8.11% to close at 1.70. Home Afrika rallied +85.71% 1
month through End December 2015. At The End of 2015 Home Afrika issued
a Profits Warning and has corrected 34.61% since issuing that Warning.

Home Afrika Profits Warnings here

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/Home%20Afrika%20-Profit%20Warning%20-%20FY%202015.pdf

Transcentury rallied +5.26% to close at 9.00 and traded 287,700 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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