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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 11th of January 2016
 
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Macro Thoughts

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This is a tsunami of negative psychology being driven by China," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors in New York.
Africa


China was again the epicenter of unease as the People's Bank
confounded analysts by guiding the yuan sharply stronger

read more




2016 starts with a bang @TheStarKenya
Africa


The year 2016 started with a bang. North Korea's 'Lil Kim' set off a
Bomb and the global media has been busy challenging whether it really
was an ''H'' Bomb. In a show of support for South Korea and as a show
of force, the US deployed a B-52 bomber on a low-level flight over
South Korea on Sunday. Saudi Arabia conducted its first mass execution
of political opponents since 63 religious extremists were publicly
beheaded for the 1979 siege in the Grand Mosque of Mecca. The
execution of Sheikh Nimr-al-Nimr was the catalyst for the sacking of
the kingdom of Saudi Arabia's embassy in Tehran and relations between
the two have apparently entered a tail-Spin. Last year, I spoke of how
the world had entered a new arrhythmic [irregular heartbeat.] Normal
and the geopolitical Heart in the Year 2016 has evidently not
normalised. Geopolitics was however eclipsed by events in the
financial markets.

Nowadays the markets begin their day in China. China sets the tone for
the rest of the day.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index slid 10 per cent
for the week but that does not tell the whole story. There was carnage
in a week that saw two abbreviated trading sessions [one of just 29
minutes] and by Friday, the authorities decided to ditch the whole
circuit-breaker business. Massive buying by state institutions
staunched losses which would have been off the charts otherwise.
Chinese weakness spilt over into other markets with Germany’s DAX
Index falling below 10,000 for the first time since October, Europe’s
Stoxx 600 Index lost 6.7 per cent for its biggest drop in four years.
A gauge of emerging-market equities compiled by MSCI fell 6.8 per
cent. The US S&P 500 .SPX suffered its worst five-day opening to a
year on record going back to 1929 and the Dow notched its worst start
to the year on record dating back to 1897. The Chicago Board Options
Exchange Volatility Index surged 48 per cent to 27.01. The VIX’s
biggest jump in a month left it 61 per cent above the one-year average
of 16.7. This is extreme price action any which way you care to slice
it.


Crude prices plunged to a 12-year low and look headed into the
$20.00-$30.00 range as early as next week. Commodity prices have
cratered except for gold [a geopolitical proxy] which got a nice pop
back to the $1,100 area. Commodity-based currencies dropped like a
stone. The commodity markets have been a persistent signal in the
noise. The Japanese Yen rallied big and actually one of my conviction
trades for 2016 is to buy the yen against just about everything.
Dollar/Yen closed at 117.30 Friday and I think can get to 105.00 and
even 95.00 this year.

There are clearly winners and losers in Africa. The big elephants in
the room, Nigeria and South Africa [which together make up
considerably more than 50 per cent of sub Saharan Africa GDP] are
getting mauled. Madam Lagarde [MD of the IMF] was in Lagos and trying
her elegant level best to cajole President Buhari into devaluing the
Nigeria Naira and at a time of his choosing rather than in a
disorderly manner and at a time of the markets choosing. A 20-25 per
cent devaluation of the naira is predicted and predictable. In South
Africa, the rand traded back above 16.00 0n Friday and within a
whisker of 'David van Rooyen' Lows. I have an admittedly outlier call
of 20 to the dollar in 2016. In a bear market the President Zuma
hair-cut is going to get deeper and deeper.

There is no Hail-Mary pass coming for the commodity producers, and
from Abuja to Luanda, from Lusaka to Johannesburg, the denouement is
still ahead and the risks of a disorderly break-down are spiking just
like the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index.


Which brings me back to East Africa and Kenya. There is a massive
trend-change occurring in front of our eyes in what was a previously
intractable problem, the perennial current account deficits. This is
an important point to note. Our import bills [fuel and associated
product are the single biggest expense item] have cratered. At current
prices, I estimate Kenya is on-side by $150 million a month. This is
big and this is why the shilling has turned 'teflon'. In fact, whilst
Kenya still runs behind Tanzania and of course Ethiopia on a GDP
basis, this part of Africa is now outperforming the rest of sub
Saharan Africa and the outperformance is accelerating and we might
just find ourselves in a sweet spot.

read more




Chauvet cave paintings: A volcanic eruption from 36,000 years ago – as captured by prehistoric man
Africa


i have been trying to finish the third Book in the Frank Bascombe Saga
by Richard Ford

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And Now It’s a Trilogy: The Bascombe Saga Continued
Africa


And then Richard Ford’s The Sportswriter was published, a book that
became—and for me has remained—a touchstone of the passage of time and
the greatness of American fiction.

The Sportswriter is narrated by Frank Bascombe, a journalist from
Michigan whose marriage has just recently crashed. His eldest son has
died, age 9, from Reye’s Syndrome, an incomprehensible event that
reveals the foundational cracks in Frank’s life. For much of the book,
Frank tries to put the pieces back together again. He can’t fix his
marriage, nor can he bring his son back. What he can do is try to
understand not how he got here, but where he might go. And as he
blindly searches for his future, he says things like: “[F]or your life
to be worth anything you must sooner or later face the possibility of
terrible, searing regret.” And “there are no transcendent themes in
life.” And “I think most things are better if you just let them be
lonely facts.”

The Sportswriter is among the most elegiac, romantic and
breathtakingly beautiful novels ever written.

ALMOST 10 YEARS LATER, the news that Richard Ford had written a sequel
taking Frank Bascombe a few years into the future didn’t thrill me—the
perfection of The Sportswriter seemed sacred; I was unwilling to trust
Mr. Ford with the next step. And I was shortsighted, as it turned out:
Independence Day (1995) won a Pulitzer Prize, cemented the author’s
reputation as one of the great writers of his generation, and firmly
established Frank Bascombe as one of the most memorable and authentic
characters in fiction.

NOW FRANK BASCOMBE HAS RETURNED—11 years later in real time, but just
a few years along in fictional time. (Comparisons to John Updike’s
Rabbit series are inevitable. Much as I admire those books, Mr. Ford
is after something different.) The action takes place during the 2000
Bush-Gore election debacle, on a Thanksgiving weekend given over to a
family gathering that promises the worst.

Frank has remarried (wife No. 2 is a former sweetheart from
Independence Day, someone who gave him the heave-ho once before and
whose reliability is again in question). His children are still
incomprehensible: His daughter, who’d flaunted her lesbian identity in
a hostile way, now seems more interested in cultivating the paternal
relationship, though maybe not; his son, always the problem child, now
works for Hallmark writing greeting-card messages and continues to
defy his father’s hopes for some evidence of familial affection.
Frank’s real-estate business has been a success. He’s neither lonely
nor depressed. Yet he continues to examine his life for flaws, clues,
directions. “What has developed is that my life’s become alloyed with
loss.” “I’d never take a lie-detector test; not because I lie, but
because I concede too much to be possible.” “What is home then, you
might wonder. The place you first see daylight, or the place you
choose for yourself? Or is it the someplace you just can’t keep from
going back to?”

In a final twist that brings it all into focus, Frank has prostate
cancer. Age and time have caught up with him. The sweet, baffled
wonder of life’s incomprehensibility has turned to a dead certainty
that the dangers, the fantasies, the fears, are all true.

At just under 500 pages, The Lay of the Land is a lot of Frank
Bascombe. There’s more, too: a bombing at the local hospital, a random
murder that proves nearly fatal to Frank, a runaway bride. Some of the
passages, especially those involving Frank’s real-estate sidekick
Mike, a Tibetan Buddhist, feel like padding. Frank’s children, so
vital to the tone of Independence Day, in which they play key roles,
are essentially peri pheral characters here, despite the considerable
airtime they’re given. And yet, by the beautiful end of this
novel—after all the heartbreak, the tentative steps towards renewal,
the violent encounters with death, the struggle to overcome the terror
of what is, after all, the ordinary hand that life deals each of
us—Frank reaches a resolution that’s powerfully moving.

Mr. Ford’s language, still laconic yet comfortably embracing; his
account of the inexorability of modern life; his humane understanding
of the puzzlement men face when trying to comprehend what has happened
as they age; his tenderness in describing how women deal with men; his
basic understanding of how we all got here and what we’re all facing;
his affirmation of the great need to truly live one’s life out—they
all add up to an experience that transcends ord inary reading. A
candidate for the great American novel, the trilogy of Frank Bascombe
books is a heartbreaking masterpiece.

Nishet said to me over the week-end ''You are very quiet''

i said I am reading the Lay of the Land and he is in his 50s now and I
am finding his concerns a little too familiar

“At the exact moment any decision seems to be being made, it's usually
long after the real decision was actually made--like light we see
emitted from stars.” ― Richard Ford, The Lay of the Land

“The most important things of your life can change so suddenly, so
unrecoverably, that you can forget even the most important of them and
their connections, you are so taken up by the chanciness of all's that
happened and by all that could and will happen next.” ― Richard Ford

read more


U.S. flies B-52 over South Korea after North's nuclear test
Law & Politics


The United States deployed a B-52 bomber on a low-level flight over
its ally South Korea on Sunday, in a show of force following North
Korea's nuclear test last week.

South Korea continued to conduct high-decibel propaganda broadcasts
across the heavily militarized border into the North on Sunday.

The broadcasts, which include "K-pop" music and statements critical of
the Kim regime, began on Friday and are considered an insult by
Pyongyang. A top North Korean official told a rally on Friday that the
broadcasts had pushed the rival Koreas to the "brink of war."

Conclusions


If feels like a Game until it isn't.

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El Chapo Speaks A secret visit with the most wanted man in the world By Sean Penn January 9, 2016 via @rollingstone
Law & Politics


It's September 28th, 2015. My head is swimming, labeling TracPhones
(burners), one per contact, one per day, destroy, burn, buy, balancing
levels of encryption, mirroring through Blackphones, anonymous e-mail
addresses, unsent messages accessed in draft form. It's a clandestine
horror show for the single most technologically illiterate man left
standing. At 55 years old, I've never learned to use a laptop. Do they
still make laptops? No fxxxing idea! It's 4:00 in the afternoon.
Another gorgeous fall day in New York City. The streets are abuzz with
the lights and sirens of diplomatic movement, heads of state, U.N.
officials, Secret Service details, the NYPD. It's the week of the U.N.
General Assembly. Pope Francis blazed a trail and left town two days
before. I'm sitting in my room at the St. Regis Hotel with my
colleague and brother in arms, Espinoza.

And while I was surfing the waves of Malibu at age nine, he was
already working in the marijuana and poppy fields of the remote
mountains of Sinaloa, Mexico. Today, he runs the biggest international
drug cartel the world has ever known, exceeding even that of Pablo
Escobar. He shops and ships by some estimates more than half of all
the cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and marijuana that come into the
United States.

They call him El Chapo. Or "Shorty." Joaquín Archivaldo Guzmán Loera.
The same El Chapo Guzman who only two months earlier had humiliated
the Peña Nieto government and stunned the world with his extraordinary
escape from Altiplano maximum-security prison through an impeccably
engineered mile-long tunnel.

We arrive at a dirt airfield. Security men in tailored suits stand
beside two six-seat single-engine prop planes. It isn't until boarding
one of the two planes that I realize that our driver had been the
29-yearold son of El Chapo, Alfredo Guzmán. He boards beside me,
designated among our personal escorts to see his father. He's
handsome, lean and smartly dressed, with a wristwatch that might be of
more value than the money housed by the central banks of most
nation-states. He's got one hell of a wristwatch.

Chapo sticks to an illicit game, proudly volunteering, "I supply more
heroin, methamphetamine, cocaine and marijuana than anybody else in
the world. I have a fleet of submarines, airplanes, trucks and boats."


He begins: "I want to make clear that this interview is for the
exclusive use of Miss Kate del Castillo and Mister Sean Penn." The
image goes black.

Did you ever use drugs?
No, sir. Many years ago, yes, I did try them. But an addict? No.

What is the outlook for the business? Do you think it will disappear?
Will it grow instead?
No, it will not end because as time goes by, we are more people, and
this will never end.


El Chapo? It won't be long, I'm sure, before the Sinaloa cartel's next
shipment into the United States is the man himself.

read more


Joaquín Archivaldo Guzmán Loera, El Chapo, in a video interview he sent from an undisclosed location.
Law & Politics


Saudi Arabia may take more measures against Iran in execution row:
foreign minister

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-iran-idUSKCN0UN0KP20160109

"The escalation is coming from Iran, not from Saudi Arabia or the GCC
.... We are evaluating Iran's moves and taking steps to counter
them..things will be clearer in the near future," Jubeir said.

Conclusions


The House of Saud is headed into a Cul-De-Sac from which it will be
very difficult to extricate themselves.

read more


Oil states are almost impossible to reform and it is usually unwise to try
Law & Politics


Oil states are almost impossible to reform and it is usually unwise to
try. Such states should also avoid war if they want to stay in
business, because people may not rise up against their rulers but they
are certainly not prepared to die for them.

read more


The most dangerous man in the world? Independent
Law & Politics


When Mohammed bin Salman was just 12 he began sitting in on meetings
led by his father Salman, the then governor of Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh
Province. Some 17 years later, at 29 and already the world’s youngest
defence minister, he plunged his country into a brutal war in Yemen
with no end in sight.

Now the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is jousting dangerously with its
regional foe Iran, led by a man seemingly in a big hurry to become the
Middle East’s most powerful leader.

Prince Mohammed was still in his early teens when he began trading in
shares and property. And when he ran into a scrape or two, his father
was able to take care of things. Unlike his older half-brothers, MbS,
as he is known, did not go abroad to university, choosing to remain in
Riyadh where he attended King Saud University, graduating in law.
Associates considered him an earnest young man who neither smoked nor
drank and had no interest in partying.

read more


Mohammed bin Nayef: FT
Law & Politics


T he day after last week’s execution of a Shia dissident in Saudi
Arabia, a killing that sent tremors through the Middle East, police
were dispatched to quell unrest in his village of al-Awamiya. Enraged
followers of Nimr al-Nimr, the Shia cleric, long a thorn in the side
of the Saudi royal family, railed against the interior minister, Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the man most directly associated with
security in the kingdom. The prince is the son of the late Nayef bin
Abdulaziz, the long-time security chief and powerful royal who
presided over numerous crackdowns, earning the wrath of freedom
activists.

Prince Mohammed, known in international circles as MbN, might have
held a personal grudge against Nimr, who had rejoiced when his father
Nayef died in 2012. But few observers believe the carefully
calculating MbN would have enthusiastically endorsed a decision that
threatens reprisals at home and in the region, where Saudi-Iranian
rivalry plays out across several volatile fronts. This was the first
mass execution of political opponents since 63 religious extremists
were publicly beheaded for the 1979 siege in the Grand Mosque of
Mecca.

Yet MbN is in the eye of the storm as the Middle East plunges deeper
into crisis. A nephew of King Salman, the ultimate decision maker, he
is responsible not only for domestic security but also for Saudi
Arabia’s policy in Syria, a main battleground in the confrontation
with Iran. In the new Saudi regime led by King Salman, enormous power
has been vested in Mohammed bin Salman, the monarch’s son and deputy
crown prince. But it is on the steady hand of MbN that western allies
are relying to maintain stability in the kingdom. He was appointed
second in line to the throne by King Salman in April last year,
highlighting the monarch’s determination to pass power to the younger
generation of princes after decades of rule by ageing leaders. The
56-year-old MbN, a close ally of the US, is best known for his role as
counter-terrorism chief in his father’s interior ministry, where he
presided over the crackdown against al-Qaeda, when the terrorist
network launched a violent campaign in Saudi Arabia in 2003.

When public unrest broke out in 2011, the reaction was brutal. Human
rights groups claimed that the security forces used live ammunition
against unarmed protesters and that mass arrests later led to torture
to extract confessions. Riyadh is viewed as a close ally and vital
collaborator in the fight against jihadism The quietly-spoken prince
may brook no dissent, but he also understands that Saudi leaders need
to consult with their people. That was on show last year when he paid
condolences in the tense city of Qatif in the eastern province, home
to the kingdom’s Shia minority, after an Isis suicide bomber killed 21
Shia worshippers at a mosque. MbN was accosted by one of the victims’
brothers. Taken aback, he punctuated his response with a gentle tap on
the man’s chest: “The security services will crack down on those who
oppose [the state] whoever they are,” he said.

One western executive who dealt with MbN in the past says the
US-educated prince is “extremely approachable”, helping protect
overseas interests through the tumultuous years when extremist attacks
included mass slaughter at a housing compound and the dragging of an
oil engineer to his death behind a speeding car. His counter-terrorism
role exposed him to four assassination attempts, including one in 2009
when he was slightly injured when a suicide bomber concealed
explosives up his backside. Since that attack, he has also taken his
own security more seriously. Activists, who say they have spoken to
the prince via closed circuit television screens for safety reasons,
call him the Wizard of Oz.

As crown prince, MbN should have immense power. Over the past year,
however, he has been losing influence to his younger cousin, Mohammed
bin Salman. The 30-year-old is tasked with rushing through radical
financial reforms to stem the haemorrhaging of foreign reserves as oil
prices slump to 11-year lows, but has also been playing an important
role in foreign policy.
His court has been merged with that of the king and one of his
advisers was removed from the cabinet

MbN’s court has been merged with that of the king and one of his close
advisers was removed from cabinet in September. Whispers of a power
struggle are never far from the lips of Riyadh’s chattering classes.
Some analysts assume that, at some stage, MbN may be moved aside in
favour of Mohammed bin Salman if the king’s health deteriorates.
Others say that tensions between the cousins are exaggerated and
succession could follow a more straightforward script, with MbN
becoming king and appointing Mohammed bin Salman as his crown prince.
“The power struggle has looked rather one sided,” says Neil Partrick,
the editor of an upcoming book on Saudi foreign policy. “The crown
prince ostensibly runs political and security affairs, but is largely
reduced to running the interior ministry.”

Yet the interior ministry remains a significant power base and MbN
retains good relations across the ruling family. Father of two
daughters, he presents no dynastic competition to other members of
al-Saud. If he reigns, he cannot pass the throne to his progeny.

“MbN is very much the strong man who would bring stability,” says one
western observer. “But is the region getting what it needs right now?

read more



Assad Woos Asian Powers to Win Support Before Peace Talks
Law & Politics


Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem arrives in New Delhi on Monday, the
highest ranking Syrian official to visit India since 2011, to push for
Prime Minister Narendra Modi to get more involved in resolving the
dispute. Last month he was in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders,
who have recently taken on a more active role in brokering a deal with
Assad’s adversaries.

“India and China have similar positions that are implicitly favorable
to the Syrian regime in that they both oppose regime change by force,"
said Kanchi Gupta,
a West Asia expert at the New Delhi-based Observer
Research Foundation. “Their positions on the conflict would be watched
carefully by the West and the Gulf, and thus Syria sees greater merit
in lobbying them."

Negotiations on Syria’s future are scheduled to begin in Geneva on Jan. 25.

“The timing is very relevant given the Assad regime knows India and
China see the Middle East as a region of future strategic competition
between the two giants," said Kadira Pethiyagoda, visiting fellow in
Asia-Middle East relations at the Brookings Doha Center. “Syria can
lobby India by outlining the support that China has promised,
appealing to Delhi’s objective of not being outshone by China."

"India is in a rare position where it has good relations with both
Syria and the big world powers," Syria’s Ambassador to India Riad
Kamel Abbas told the Telegraph last May. "We would really like India
to play a more proactive role."

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0911
Dollar Index 98.38
Japan Yen 117.35 The dollar fell half a yen to a near five-five month
low of 116.70 yen JPY= in early trade, before steadying around 117.13.
Swiss Franc 0.9942
Pound 1.4528
Aussie 0.6972
India Rupee 66.885
South Korea Won 1208.32
Brazil Real 4.0264
Egypt Pound 7.8393
South Africa Rand 16.7324

read more





Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold Bars Fetch Most Barrels of Oil Since Late 1980s: Chart

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-08/gold-bars-fetch-most-barrels-of-oil-since-late-1980s-chart

Bullion has climbed 4 percent this year to $1,103.58 an ounce, while
Brent futures slumped 11 percent to $33.32 a barrel, near an 11-year
low. An ounce of gold buys more than 33 barrels of oil, the most since
1988. The average ratio has been 16.

read more





Congo opposition to hold rallies to raise pressure on Kabila
Africa


Opposition parties in Democratic Republic of Congo said on Friday they
would stage rallies to put pressure on President Joseph Kabila to step
down when his mandate expires at the end of the year.

Since independence in 1960, there has not been a peaceful political
transition in Congo, which saw decades of autocratic rule followed
since 1996 by a series of wars and rebellions, mainly in the east.

Conclusions


My Friend in Kin La Belle who is a Constitutional Lawyer tells me the
Constitution is bullet-proof and The Opposition just needs to run down
the clock.

read more


Jacob Zuma 'was in Gaddafi’s pocket' Mail and Guardian
Africa


An informant told Hillary Clinton that Zuma secretly received money
from Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and that he feared for his position as
president.

read more



South Africa All Share Bloomberg -5.11% 2016
Africa


That saw the dollar surge as much as 10.3 percent at one stage to
17.9950 rand ZAR=D3, before tracking back to 16.7205. That was still
up sharply from 16.3150 late on Friday.

read more





Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.63% 2016
Africa


27,028.39 -237.79 -0.87%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.21% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

World's Biggest Dam Has ‘Extremely Dangerous’ Low Water Levels

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-08/world-s-biggest-dam-has-extremely-dangerous-low-water-levels

Water levels at Kariba dam, the world’s largest, are at “extremely
dangerous” lows that could force a shutdown of its hydro power plants,
said Zambian Energy Minister Dora Siliya.

Poor rainfall and overuse of water by Zambia and Zimbabwe, the
southern African countries that share the reservoir, have caused its
levels to drop, with electricity generation already reduced by more
than half. As of Dec. 28, Kariba was 14 percent full, compared with 51
percent a year earlier, according to the dam’s regulator.

Zambia is the most vulnerable country in sub-Saharan Africa to the El
Nino weather system,
partly because of its dependence on hydro power
for more than 95 percent of generation, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
analysts including Oyinkansola Anubi said in a November note

read more


Ethnic Somalis are dying in Kenya, and some say the government is to blame WAPO
Kenyan Economy


MANDERA, Kenya — A growing number of Kenya’s ethnic Somalis have
vanished or turned up dead after being detained amid a crackdown by
security forces on Islamist extremists.

The authorities have denied involvement, suggesting that many of the
deaths are at the hands of al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate based in
neighboring Somalia.

“We do everything that happens within the fight against terrorism
within the confines of the law,” said Mwenda Njoka, spokesman for the
Ministry of Interior.

But parliamentarians representing the predominantly ethnic-Somali
counties of northeast Kenya have said many of the victims are targets
of a campaign by security forces.

The 2.3 million ethnic Somalis with Kenyan citizenship have been under
scrutiny since al-Shabab began staging attacks in 2011 in this country
of 44 million. Suspicions have grown more intense since an attack in
September 2013 on an upscale Nairobi mall, which left 67 dead, and an
assault on Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya in April,
which killed 148 people.

The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR), established by
the constitution, released a report in September documenting 25
extrajudicial killings and 81 “enforced disappearances” of ethnic
Somalis across Kenya since al-Shabab attacked the Westgate mall.

read more


21-DEC-2015 :: The Teflon Shilling and Other Matters @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy


Oil accounts for about a quarter of Kenya’s annual import bill.
According to latest data, Kenya imported Sh177.2 billion worth of fuel
and lubricants between January and September, a 34.66 per cent drop
from the Sh271.2 billion it took in during the same period last year.
That’s a Sh94 billion swing and nearly a $1 billion. That’s $1 billion
of dollar demand that has evaporated. Since September, the price of
fuel has tanked more than 20 per cent further accelerating this trend.
Earlier in the year, I spoke of how this $1 billion boost would
underpin our economy by providing a powerful grassroots stimulus.
However, what has happened is that the govern- ment has creamed off a
great deal of this by raising taxes on the price of fuel and thereby
improving its fiscal position and this has blunted the price move at
the pump.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.32% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

145.24 -1.50 -1.02%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.48% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,940.42 -62.69 -1.57%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
N.S.E Today



The Teflon Shilling was last trading just a whisker below an intra day
5 month High of 101.70 and was at 102.185 Last.
The Shilling is Teflon especially when you consider the wild price
action we are witnessing elsewhere.
For example, The South African Rand ''flash-crashed'' in the early
morning when you were all snug in your beds by as much 10.3 percent at
one stage to 17.9950.
Events further afield caught up with the Nairobi Securities Exchange
Friday and continued to pressure the Market for a second session.
The Nairobi All Share Index eased 0.695% to close at 144.23 making
that a 2 session 1.71% retreat.
The Nairobi NSE20 ticked 10.50 points lower to close at 3929.92 and
has retreated 1.82% over 2 sessions
Volumes were subdued after Fridays fireworks to clock 351.877m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural



George Williamson Tea and Kapchorua Tea turned ex-bonus [1 share for
every 1 held] today and Williamson corrected 18.877% lower to close at
318.0, considerably less than the Bonus calculation.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services



Safaricom was the busiest counter at the Bourse today and ticked
0.914% easier to close at 16.25 and traded 9.228m shares worth
150.035m. Use Dips to increase Long positions.

Kenya Airways bounced +3.22% higher to close at 4.80 and traded 86,800 shares.

TPS Serena firmed 3% to close at 25.75. Tourism [admittedly off a
bombed out base] is beginning to show some signs of life.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment



Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 41.50 and was trading at
42.00 +1.2% at the Finish Line. KCB traded 2.54m shares and is well
supported and +3.75% since announcing its new Hold Co. structure.
Equity Group rebounded +1.3% to close at 39.00 and traded 518,300 shares.
Standard Chartered [which has been egregiously oversold for a while
now] rallied +1.96% to close +1.966% to close at 208.00 and traded
24,500 shares. There is plenty of scope and head-room for the price.
Barclays Bank softened 2.307% to close at 12.70 and traded 127,300 shares.

BRITAM EA retreated -2.307% to close at 12.70 and traded 1.486m
shares. BRITAM EA issued a Full Year Profits Warning 24th-Dec-2015 and
is -2.307% in 2016.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied



BAT traded 10,000 shares all at 800.00 and unchanged. BAT is +1.265%
in 2016 and has proven remarkably resilient in the teeth of the
Bribery scandal. In Fact , that story broke at the end of november
2015 and BAT is +2.56% versus the level pertaining end November.

EABL was marked down 3.125% to close at 279.00 and traded 13,100 shares.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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