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Monday 11th of January 2016 |
Morning Africa |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts |
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2016 starts with a bang @TheStarKenya Africa |
The year 2016 started with a bang. North Korea's 'Lil Kim' set off a Bomb and the global media has been busy challenging whether it really was an ''H'' Bomb. In a show of support for South Korea and as a show of force, the US deployed a B-52 bomber on a low-level flight over South Korea on Sunday. Saudi Arabia conducted its first mass execution of political opponents since 63 religious extremists were publicly beheaded for the 1979 siege in the Grand Mosque of Mecca. The execution of Sheikh Nimr-al-Nimr was the catalyst for the sacking of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia's embassy in Tehran and relations between the two have apparently entered a tail-Spin. Last year, I spoke of how the world had entered a new arrhythmic [irregular heartbeat.] Normal and the geopolitical Heart in the Year 2016 has evidently not normalised. Geopolitics was however eclipsed by events in the financial markets.
Nowadays the markets begin their day in China. China sets the tone for the rest of the day. China’s Shanghai Composite Index slid 10 per cent for the week but that does not tell the whole story. There was carnage in a week that saw two abbreviated trading sessions [one of just 29 minutes] and by Friday, the authorities decided to ditch the whole circuit-breaker business. Massive buying by state institutions staunched losses which would have been off the charts otherwise. Chinese weakness spilt over into other markets with Germany’s DAX Index falling below 10,000 for the first time since October, Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index lost 6.7 per cent for its biggest drop in four years. A gauge of emerging-market equities compiled by MSCI fell 6.8 per cent. The US S&P 500 .SPX suffered its worst five-day opening to a year on record going back to 1929 and the Dow notched its worst start to the year on record dating back to 1897. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index surged 48 per cent to 27.01. The VIX’s biggest jump in a month left it 61 per cent above the one-year average of 16.7. This is extreme price action any which way you care to slice it.
Crude prices plunged to a 12-year low and look headed into the $20.00-$30.00 range as early as next week. Commodity prices have cratered except for gold [a geopolitical proxy] which got a nice pop back to the $1,100 area. Commodity-based currencies dropped like a stone. The commodity markets have been a persistent signal in the noise. The Japanese Yen rallied big and actually one of my conviction trades for 2016 is to buy the yen against just about everything. Dollar/Yen closed at 117.30 Friday and I think can get to 105.00 and even 95.00 this year.
There are clearly winners and losers in Africa. The big elephants in the room, Nigeria and South Africa [which together make up considerably more than 50 per cent of sub Saharan Africa GDP] are getting mauled. Madam Lagarde [MD of the IMF] was in Lagos and trying her elegant level best to cajole President Buhari into devaluing the Nigeria Naira and at a time of his choosing rather than in a disorderly manner and at a time of the markets choosing. A 20-25 per cent devaluation of the naira is predicted and predictable. In South Africa, the rand traded back above 16.00 0n Friday and within a whisker of 'David van Rooyen' Lows. I have an admittedly outlier call of 20 to the dollar in 2016. In a bear market the President Zuma hair-cut is going to get deeper and deeper.
There is no Hail-Mary pass coming for the commodity producers, and from Abuja to Luanda, from Lusaka to Johannesburg, the denouement is still ahead and the risks of a disorderly break-down are spiking just like the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index.
Which brings me back to East Africa and Kenya. There is a massive trend-change occurring in front of our eyes in what was a previously intractable problem, the perennial current account deficits. This is an important point to note. Our import bills [fuel and associated product are the single biggest expense item] have cratered. At current prices, I estimate Kenya is on-side by $150 million a month. This is big and this is why the shilling has turned 'teflon'. In fact, whilst Kenya still runs behind Tanzania and of course Ethiopia on a GDP basis, this part of Africa is now outperforming the rest of sub Saharan Africa and the outperformance is accelerating and we might just find ourselves in a sweet spot.
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And Now It’s a Trilogy: The Bascombe Saga Continued Africa |
And then Richard Ford’s The Sportswriter was published, a book that became—and for me has remained—a touchstone of the passage of time and the greatness of American fiction.
The Sportswriter is narrated by Frank Bascombe, a journalist from Michigan whose marriage has just recently crashed. His eldest son has died, age 9, from Reye’s Syndrome, an incomprehensible event that reveals the foundational cracks in Frank’s life. For much of the book, Frank tries to put the pieces back together again. He can’t fix his marriage, nor can he bring his son back. What he can do is try to understand not how he got here, but where he might go. And as he blindly searches for his future, he says things like: “[F]or your life to be worth anything you must sooner or later face the possibility of terrible, searing regret.” And “there are no transcendent themes in life.” And “I think most things are better if you just let them be lonely facts.”
The Sportswriter is among the most elegiac, romantic and breathtakingly beautiful novels ever written.
ALMOST 10 YEARS LATER, the news that Richard Ford had written a sequel taking Frank Bascombe a few years into the future didn’t thrill me—the perfection of The Sportswriter seemed sacred; I was unwilling to trust Mr. Ford with the next step. And I was shortsighted, as it turned out: Independence Day (1995) won a Pulitzer Prize, cemented the author’s reputation as one of the great writers of his generation, and firmly established Frank Bascombe as one of the most memorable and authentic characters in fiction.
NOW FRANK BASCOMBE HAS RETURNED—11 years later in real time, but just a few years along in fictional time. (Comparisons to John Updike’s Rabbit series are inevitable. Much as I admire those books, Mr. Ford is after something different.) The action takes place during the 2000 Bush-Gore election debacle, on a Thanksgiving weekend given over to a family gathering that promises the worst.
Frank has remarried (wife No. 2 is a former sweetheart from Independence Day, someone who gave him the heave-ho once before and whose reliability is again in question). His children are still incomprehensible: His daughter, who’d flaunted her lesbian identity in a hostile way, now seems more interested in cultivating the paternal relationship, though maybe not; his son, always the problem child, now works for Hallmark writing greeting-card messages and continues to defy his father’s hopes for some evidence of familial affection. Frank’s real-estate business has been a success. He’s neither lonely nor depressed. Yet he continues to examine his life for flaws, clues, directions. “What has developed is that my life’s become alloyed with loss.” “I’d never take a lie-detector test; not because I lie, but because I concede too much to be possible.” “What is home then, you might wonder. The place you first see daylight, or the place you choose for yourself? Or is it the someplace you just can’t keep from going back to?”
In a final twist that brings it all into focus, Frank has prostate cancer. Age and time have caught up with him. The sweet, baffled wonder of life’s incomprehensibility has turned to a dead certainty that the dangers, the fantasies, the fears, are all true.
At just under 500 pages, The Lay of the Land is a lot of Frank Bascombe. There’s more, too: a bombing at the local hospital, a random murder that proves nearly fatal to Frank, a runaway bride. Some of the passages, especially those involving Frank’s real-estate sidekick Mike, a Tibetan Buddhist, feel like padding. Frank’s children, so vital to the tone of Independence Day, in which they play key roles, are essentially peri pheral characters here, despite the considerable airtime they’re given. And yet, by the beautiful end of this novel—after all the heartbreak, the tentative steps towards renewal, the violent encounters with death, the struggle to overcome the terror of what is, after all, the ordinary hand that life deals each of us—Frank reaches a resolution that’s powerfully moving.
Mr. Ford’s language, still laconic yet comfortably embracing; his account of the inexorability of modern life; his humane understanding of the puzzlement men face when trying to comprehend what has happened as they age; his tenderness in describing how women deal with men; his basic understanding of how we all got here and what we’re all facing; his affirmation of the great need to truly live one’s life out—they all add up to an experience that transcends ord inary reading. A candidate for the great American novel, the trilogy of Frank Bascombe books is a heartbreaking masterpiece.
Nishet said to me over the week-end ''You are very quiet''
i said I am reading the Lay of the Land and he is in his 50s now and I am finding his concerns a little too familiar
“At the exact moment any decision seems to be being made, it's usually long after the real decision was actually made--like light we see emitted from stars.” ― Richard Ford, The Lay of the Land
“The most important things of your life can change so suddenly, so unrecoverably, that you can forget even the most important of them and their connections, you are so taken up by the chanciness of all's that happened and by all that could and will happen next.” ― Richard Ford
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U.S. flies B-52 over South Korea after North's nuclear test Law & Politics |
The United States deployed a B-52 bomber on a low-level flight over its ally South Korea on Sunday, in a show of force following North Korea's nuclear test last week.
South Korea continued to conduct high-decibel propaganda broadcasts across the heavily militarized border into the North on Sunday.
The broadcasts, which include "K-pop" music and statements critical of the Kim regime, began on Friday and are considered an insult by Pyongyang. A top North Korean official told a rally on Friday that the broadcasts had pushed the rival Koreas to the "brink of war."
Conclusions
If feels like a Game until it isn't.
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El Chapo Speaks A secret visit with the most wanted man in the world By Sean Penn January 9, 2016 via @rollingstone Law & Politics |
It's September 28th, 2015. My head is swimming, labeling TracPhones (burners), one per contact, one per day, destroy, burn, buy, balancing levels of encryption, mirroring through Blackphones, anonymous e-mail addresses, unsent messages accessed in draft form. It's a clandestine horror show for the single most technologically illiterate man left standing. At 55 years old, I've never learned to use a laptop. Do they still make laptops? No fxxxing idea! It's 4:00 in the afternoon. Another gorgeous fall day in New York City. The streets are abuzz with the lights and sirens of diplomatic movement, heads of state, U.N. officials, Secret Service details, the NYPD. It's the week of the U.N. General Assembly. Pope Francis blazed a trail and left town two days before. I'm sitting in my room at the St. Regis Hotel with my colleague and brother in arms, Espinoza.
And while I was surfing the waves of Malibu at age nine, he was already working in the marijuana and poppy fields of the remote mountains of Sinaloa, Mexico. Today, he runs the biggest international drug cartel the world has ever known, exceeding even that of Pablo Escobar. He shops and ships by some estimates more than half of all the cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and marijuana that come into the United States.
They call him El Chapo. Or "Shorty." Joaquín Archivaldo Guzmán Loera. The same El Chapo Guzman who only two months earlier had humiliated the Peña Nieto government and stunned the world with his extraordinary escape from Altiplano maximum-security prison through an impeccably engineered mile-long tunnel.
We arrive at a dirt airfield. Security men in tailored suits stand beside two six-seat single-engine prop planes. It isn't until boarding one of the two planes that I realize that our driver had been the 29-yearold son of El Chapo, Alfredo Guzmán. He boards beside me, designated among our personal escorts to see his father. He's handsome, lean and smartly dressed, with a wristwatch that might be of more value than the money housed by the central banks of most nation-states. He's got one hell of a wristwatch.
Chapo sticks to an illicit game, proudly volunteering, "I supply more heroin, methamphetamine, cocaine and marijuana than anybody else in the world. I have a fleet of submarines, airplanes, trucks and boats."
He begins: "I want to make clear that this interview is for the exclusive use of Miss Kate del Castillo and Mister Sean Penn." The image goes black.
Did you ever use drugs? No, sir. Many years ago, yes, I did try them. But an addict? No.
What is the outlook for the business? Do you think it will disappear? Will it grow instead? No, it will not end because as time goes by, we are more people, and this will never end.
El Chapo? It won't be long, I'm sure, before the Sinaloa cartel's next shipment into the United States is the man himself.
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The most dangerous man in the world? Independent Law & Politics |
When Mohammed bin Salman was just 12 he began sitting in on meetings led by his father Salman, the then governor of Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Province. Some 17 years later, at 29 and already the world’s youngest defence minister, he plunged his country into a brutal war in Yemen with no end in sight.
Now the kingdom of Saudi Arabia is jousting dangerously with its regional foe Iran, led by a man seemingly in a big hurry to become the Middle East’s most powerful leader.
Prince Mohammed was still in his early teens when he began trading in shares and property. And when he ran into a scrape or two, his father was able to take care of things. Unlike his older half-brothers, MbS, as he is known, did not go abroad to university, choosing to remain in Riyadh where he attended King Saud University, graduating in law. Associates considered him an earnest young man who neither smoked nor drank and had no interest in partying.
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Mohammed bin Nayef: FT Law & Politics |
T he day after last week’s execution of a Shia dissident in Saudi Arabia, a killing that sent tremors through the Middle East, police were dispatched to quell unrest in his village of al-Awamiya. Enraged followers of Nimr al-Nimr, the Shia cleric, long a thorn in the side of the Saudi royal family, railed against the interior minister, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the man most directly associated with security in the kingdom. The prince is the son of the late Nayef bin Abdulaziz, the long-time security chief and powerful royal who presided over numerous crackdowns, earning the wrath of freedom activists.
Prince Mohammed, known in international circles as MbN, might have held a personal grudge against Nimr, who had rejoiced when his father Nayef died in 2012. But few observers believe the carefully calculating MbN would have enthusiastically endorsed a decision that threatens reprisals at home and in the region, where Saudi-Iranian rivalry plays out across several volatile fronts. This was the first mass execution of political opponents since 63 religious extremists were publicly beheaded for the 1979 siege in the Grand Mosque of Mecca.
Yet MbN is in the eye of the storm as the Middle East plunges deeper into crisis. A nephew of King Salman, the ultimate decision maker, he is responsible not only for domestic security but also for Saudi Arabia’s policy in Syria, a main battleground in the confrontation with Iran. In the new Saudi regime led by King Salman, enormous power has been vested in Mohammed bin Salman, the monarch’s son and deputy crown prince. But it is on the steady hand of MbN that western allies are relying to maintain stability in the kingdom. He was appointed second in line to the throne by King Salman in April last year, highlighting the monarch’s determination to pass power to the younger generation of princes after decades of rule by ageing leaders. The 56-year-old MbN, a close ally of the US, is best known for his role as counter-terrorism chief in his father’s interior ministry, where he presided over the crackdown against al-Qaeda, when the terrorist network launched a violent campaign in Saudi Arabia in 2003.
When public unrest broke out in 2011, the reaction was brutal. Human rights groups claimed that the security forces used live ammunition against unarmed protesters and that mass arrests later led to torture to extract confessions. Riyadh is viewed as a close ally and vital collaborator in the fight against jihadism The quietly-spoken prince may brook no dissent, but he also understands that Saudi leaders need to consult with their people. That was on show last year when he paid condolences in the tense city of Qatif in the eastern province, home to the kingdom’s Shia minority, after an Isis suicide bomber killed 21 Shia worshippers at a mosque. MbN was accosted by one of the victims’ brothers. Taken aback, he punctuated his response with a gentle tap on the man’s chest: “The security services will crack down on those who oppose [the state] whoever they are,” he said.
One western executive who dealt with MbN in the past says the US-educated prince is “extremely approachable”, helping protect overseas interests through the tumultuous years when extremist attacks included mass slaughter at a housing compound and the dragging of an oil engineer to his death behind a speeding car. His counter-terrorism role exposed him to four assassination attempts, including one in 2009 when he was slightly injured when a suicide bomber concealed explosives up his backside. Since that attack, he has also taken his own security more seriously. Activists, who say they have spoken to the prince via closed circuit television screens for safety reasons, call him the Wizard of Oz.
As crown prince, MbN should have immense power. Over the past year, however, he has been losing influence to his younger cousin, Mohammed bin Salman. The 30-year-old is tasked with rushing through radical financial reforms to stem the haemorrhaging of foreign reserves as oil prices slump to 11-year lows, but has also been playing an important role in foreign policy. His court has been merged with that of the king and one of his advisers was removed from the cabinet
MbN’s court has been merged with that of the king and one of his close advisers was removed from cabinet in September. Whispers of a power struggle are never far from the lips of Riyadh’s chattering classes. Some analysts assume that, at some stage, MbN may be moved aside in favour of Mohammed bin Salman if the king’s health deteriorates. Others say that tensions between the cousins are exaggerated and succession could follow a more straightforward script, with MbN becoming king and appointing Mohammed bin Salman as his crown prince. “The power struggle has looked rather one sided,” says Neil Partrick, the editor of an upcoming book on Saudi foreign policy. “The crown prince ostensibly runs political and security affairs, but is largely reduced to running the interior ministry.”
Yet the interior ministry remains a significant power base and MbN retains good relations across the ruling family. Father of two daughters, he presents no dynastic competition to other members of al-Saud. If he reigns, he cannot pass the throne to his progeny.
“MbN is very much the strong man who would bring stability,” says one western observer. “But is the region getting what it needs right now?
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Assad Woos Asian Powers to Win Support Before Peace Talks Law & Politics |
Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem arrives in New Delhi on Monday, the highest ranking Syrian official to visit India since 2011, to push for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to get more involved in resolving the dispute. Last month he was in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders, who have recently taken on a more active role in brokering a deal with Assad’s adversaries.
“India and China have similar positions that are implicitly favorable to the Syrian regime in that they both oppose regime change by force," said Kanchi Gupta, a West Asia expert at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation. “Their positions on the conflict would be watched carefully by the West and the Gulf, and thus Syria sees greater merit in lobbying them."
Negotiations on Syria’s future are scheduled to begin in Geneva on Jan. 25.
“The timing is very relevant given the Assad regime knows India and China see the Middle East as a region of future strategic competition between the two giants," said Kadira Pethiyagoda, visiting fellow in Asia-Middle East relations at the Brookings Doha Center. “Syria can lobby India by outlining the support that China has promised, appealing to Delhi’s objective of not being outshone by China."
"India is in a rare position where it has good relations with both Syria and the big world powers," Syria’s Ambassador to India Riad Kamel Abbas told the Telegraph last May. "We would really like India to play a more proactive role."
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ World Currencies |
Euro 1.0911 Dollar Index 98.38 Japan Yen 117.35 The dollar fell half a yen to a near five-five month low of 116.70 yen JPY= in early trade, before steadying around 117.13. Swiss Franc 0.9942 Pound 1.4528 Aussie 0.6972 India Rupee 66.885 South Korea Won 1208.32 Brazil Real 4.0264 Egypt Pound 7.8393 South Africa Rand 16.7324
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Congo opposition to hold rallies to raise pressure on Kabila Africa |
Opposition parties in Democratic Republic of Congo said on Friday they would stage rallies to put pressure on President Joseph Kabila to step down when his mandate expires at the end of the year.
Since independence in 1960, there has not been a peaceful political transition in Congo, which saw decades of autocratic rule followed since 1996 by a series of wars and rebellions, mainly in the east.
Conclusions
My Friend in Kin La Belle who is a Constitutional Lawyer tells me the Constitution is bullet-proof and The Opposition just needs to run down the clock.
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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -5.63% 2016 Africa |
27,028.39 -237.79 -0.87%
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.21% 2016 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND
World's Biggest Dam Has ‘Extremely Dangerous’ Low Water Levels http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-08/world-s-biggest-dam-has-extremely-dangerous-low-water-levels
Water levels at Kariba dam, the world’s largest, are at “extremely dangerous” lows that could force a shutdown of its hydro power plants, said Zambian Energy Minister Dora Siliya.
Poor rainfall and overuse of water by Zambia and Zimbabwe, the southern African countries that share the reservoir, have caused its levels to drop, with electricity generation already reduced by more than half. As of Dec. 28, Kariba was 14 percent full, compared with 51 percent a year earlier, according to the dam’s regulator.
Zambia is the most vulnerable country in sub-Saharan Africa to the El Nino weather system, partly because of its dependence on hydro power for more than 95 percent of generation, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts including Oyinkansola Anubi said in a November note
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Ethnic Somalis are dying in Kenya, and some say the government is to blame WAPO Kenyan Economy |
MANDERA, Kenya — A growing number of Kenya’s ethnic Somalis have vanished or turned up dead after being detained amid a crackdown by security forces on Islamist extremists.
The authorities have denied involvement, suggesting that many of the deaths are at the hands of al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate based in neighboring Somalia.
“We do everything that happens within the fight against terrorism within the confines of the law,” said Mwenda Njoka, spokesman for the Ministry of Interior.
But parliamentarians representing the predominantly ethnic-Somali counties of northeast Kenya have said many of the victims are targets of a campaign by security forces.
The 2.3 million ethnic Somalis with Kenyan citizenship have been under scrutiny since al-Shabab began staging attacks in 2011 in this country of 44 million. Suspicions have grown more intense since an attack in September 2013 on an upscale Nairobi mall, which left 67 dead, and an assault on Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya in April, which killed 148 people.
The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR), established by the constitution, released a report in September documenting 25 extrajudicial killings and 81 “enforced disappearances” of ethnic Somalis across Kenya since al-Shabab attacked the Westgate mall.
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21-DEC-2015 :: The Teflon Shilling and Other Matters @TheStarKenya Kenyan Economy |
Oil accounts for about a quarter of Kenya’s annual import bill. According to latest data, Kenya imported Sh177.2 billion worth of fuel and lubricants between January and September, a 34.66 per cent drop from the Sh271.2 billion it took in during the same period last year. That’s a Sh94 billion swing and nearly a $1 billion. That’s $1 billion of dollar demand that has evaporated. Since September, the price of fuel has tanked more than 20 per cent further accelerating this trend. Earlier in the year, I spoke of how this $1 billion boost would underpin our economy by providing a powerful grassroots stimulus. However, what has happened is that the govern- ment has creamed off a great deal of this by raising taxes on the price of fuel and thereby improving its fiscal position and this has blunted the price move at the pump.
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N.S.E Today |
The Teflon Shilling was last trading just a whisker below an intra day 5 month High of 101.70 and was at 102.185 Last. The Shilling is Teflon especially when you consider the wild price action we are witnessing elsewhere. For example, The South African Rand ''flash-crashed'' in the early morning when you were all snug in your beds by as much 10.3 percent at one stage to 17.9950. Events further afield caught up with the Nairobi Securities Exchange Friday and continued to pressure the Market for a second session. The Nairobi All Share Index eased 0.695% to close at 144.23 making that a 2 session 1.71% retreat. The Nairobi NSE20 ticked 10.50 points lower to close at 3929.92 and has retreated 1.82% over 2 sessions Volumes were subdued after Fridays fireworks to clock 351.877m.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
George Williamson Tea and Kapchorua Tea turned ex-bonus [1 share for every 1 held] today and Williamson corrected 18.877% lower to close at 318.0, considerably less than the Bonus calculation.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom was the busiest counter at the Bourse today and ticked 0.914% easier to close at 16.25 and traded 9.228m shares worth 150.035m. Use Dips to increase Long positions.
Kenya Airways bounced +3.22% higher to close at 4.80 and traded 86,800 shares.
TPS Serena firmed 3% to close at 25.75. Tourism [admittedly off a bombed out base] is beginning to show some signs of life.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 41.50 and was trading at 42.00 +1.2% at the Finish Line. KCB traded 2.54m shares and is well supported and +3.75% since announcing its new Hold Co. structure. Equity Group rebounded +1.3% to close at 39.00 and traded 518,300 shares. Standard Chartered [which has been egregiously oversold for a while now] rallied +1.96% to close +1.966% to close at 208.00 and traded 24,500 shares. There is plenty of scope and head-room for the price. Barclays Bank softened 2.307% to close at 12.70 and traded 127,300 shares.
BRITAM EA retreated -2.307% to close at 12.70 and traded 1.486m shares. BRITAM EA issued a Full Year Profits Warning 24th-Dec-2015 and is -2.307% in 2016.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
BAT traded 10,000 shares all at 800.00 and unchanged. BAT is +1.265% in 2016 and has proven remarkably resilient in the teeth of the Bribery scandal. In Fact , that story broke at the end of november 2015 and BAT is +2.56% versus the level pertaining end November.
EABL was marked down 3.125% to close at 279.00 and traded 13,100 shares.
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