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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 19th of January 2016

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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“It comes down to one basic fear, which is the global economy,” said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist for BlackRock Inc

“The market is manic depressive,” Howard Marks, a co-founder of
Oaktree Capital Group LLC, the world’s biggest distressed-debt
investor, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It swings
from seeing only the positives to seeing only the negatives and from
interpreting everything positively to interpreting everything

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Global mkt cap has plunged to lowest since '13

Home Thoughts

I drop Hannah at Muthaiga Mini Market and then occasionally I see her
in the Bus close to my Office. And she was sitting in the back and
concentrating really hard and the moment was fleeting and took my
breath away a little.

She has really grown up.

Time moves so fast.

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Ukraine: Euromaidan’s godmother engages Kremlin grey cardinal Atimes
Law & Politics

What passes for Kremlinology at times hits intriguing boundaries due
to sheer paucity of information. This happened on Friday when a key
Kremlin functionary and presidential aide Vladislav Surkov and the
United States Assistant Secretary of State for Eurasia Victoria Nuland
met up in the remote north-western Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and
clocked several hours of secret conversation.

Nuland flew in from Lithuania and left Russian soil immediately after
the conversation. There is a surreal touch to it – Moscow sees Nuland
as the godmother of the Euromaidan in Kiev in February 2014 and there
are pictures of her braving the snow and ice on the city square in the
tick of winter distributing sandwiches to protestors seeking the
ouster of former President Viktor Yanukovich.

Surkov, of course, is often depicted in the West as the ‘grey
cardinal’ in Kremlin politics, stands blacklisted for visa under the
US sanctions because of his role in the Ukraine conflict. There are
two versions of Surkov: one, he was a charioteer of the ‘Novorossiysk’
project to annex eastern Ukraine; and, two, he is actually a
‘westernist’ at heart.


Two Principals emerge from the shadows, momentarily.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0879
Dollar Index 99.13
Japan Yen 117.76
Swiss Franc 1.0078
Pound 1.4269
Aussie 0.6904
India Rupee 67.575
South Korea Won 1205.96
Brazil Real 4.0576
Egypt Pound 7.8329
South Africa Rand 16.7328

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Barclays Prepares to Stage a Gradual Retreat in sub-Saharan Africa

The bank is drawing up plans to sell some of its 62% stake in Barclays
Africa Group, people familiar with the matter say

Barclays executives have concluded that being the majority owner of a
sprawling African business no longer fits with the bank’s strategy,
according to people familiar with the matter.

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South Africa Food Makers Seen Unable to Handle Drought, Rand

Food inflation will probably exceed 10 percent by the middle of this
year, Krugel said. It was 4.8 percent in November, Statistics South
Africa data show. Food prices are expected to increase by as much as
25 percent in the year ending April 2017, Ronald Ramabulana, chief
executive officer of the National Agricultural Marketing Council, told

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.83


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -15.2% 2016


5,941.19 -181.00 -3.14%

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11-JAN-2016 2016 Starts With A Bang @TheStarKenya

There are clearly winners and losers in Africa. The big elephants in
the room, Nigeria and South Africa [which together make up
considerably more than 50 per cent of sub-Saharan Af- rica GDP] are
getting mauled. Madam Lagarde [MD of the IMF] was in Lagos and trying
her elegant level best to cajole President Buhari into devaluing the
Nigeria naira and at a time of his choosing rather than in a
disorderly manner and at a time of the markets choosing.

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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.06% 2016

MOZAMBIQUE Fighting flares in Tete


Mozambican villagers at a refugee camp at Kapise, Malawi, say they
have fled government security forces who burned crops and homes in
Tete, sources at the camp have told Africa Confidential. Guerrillas
from the opposition Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (Renamo) and
government troops have clashed in the Tete area in an undeclared war
that the Maputo government seems anxious to keep quiet. Tete was the
scene of heavy fighting in the Frelimo-Renamo war of 1977-92

Pemba Island Mozambique Indian Ocean


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Analysts expect steady lending rate as CBK team meets Nation
Kenyan Economy

The Central Bank of Kenya advisory committee meets on Wednesday, even
as analysts on Monday projected that they expect the Monetary Policy
Committee to vote to leave the benchmark lending rate unchanged.

In a pre-MPC outlook, several analysts interviewed by the Daily Nation
said they forecast the rate to remain steady, as the shilling hints of
resilience, with the country’s foreign reserves rising gradually and
steadily, and inter-bank rates showing stability.

On Monday, the shilling held steady at 102.3 against the dollar,
reflecting last week’s levels.

Sterling Capital Investment Director John Kirimi said: “I guess CBK
will not change the rate. Inflation is edging up and the shilling is
relatively stable. I think they need a bit more time to see the
direction that the national economy will take in view of what is
happening around the world. For example, slowing growth in China and
other emerging economies, collapsing oil prices and interest rates in
the US.”

Nairobi-based analyst Aly Khan Satchu said: “I would like to think the
MPC will stand aside this time around. The Central Bank acted
pre-emptively (last November) and governor (Dr Patrick) Njoroge was
ahead of the curve. The shilling is just shy of a 5-month high
(confounding the naysayers) and is behaving with some resilience.
Inflation has surely peaked now and, therefore, I expect the central
banker to bank some of his bona fides and leave rates unchanged.”

Economist Michael Chege said: “It would be a big surprise if the MPC
agreed to raise the Central Bank Rate. Why? The Treasury has given the
indication that it will not go back to domestic borrowing for anything
approaching what they did last year."

"Inflation in December rose only marginally above the 7.5 target rate
and we should expect it to fall, given the decline in oil prices
(locally and internationally) and good rains that should lead to lower
food prices. “Food and energy have been the main drivers of inflation.
And the shilling has been stable, unlike the case last October when
the MPC met.”

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TransCentury has moved to assure investors that it is on course to repaying Sh8.1 billion owed to bondholders despite the sudden resignation of its CEO Gachao Kiuna
Kenyan Economy

Dr Kiuna left the investment firm last Thursday followed by Joe
Karago, a non-executive director, who resigned the next day.

The company did not explain why the duo stepped down but says it is
working on settling the convertible debt, which matures on March 25.

“The fundraising process is ongoing with one of the key objectives
being to clear the Eurobond by due date. Details will be released in
the next couple of weeks,” said TransCentury in a response to queries
by the Business Daily.

It did not elaborate on the mode of fundraising being used.

The company is believed to be looking at various options, including a
rights issue and taking on new debt.

Going for a rights issue means TransCentury will be asking
shareholders to pump in over three times its market capitalisation of
Sh2.5 billion, heralding a significant dilution.

A cash call would test investors’ appetite for the stock that has lost
82 per cent since listing in 2011 at an offer price of Sh50.

The debt repayment process is now being spearheaded by Ng’ang’a
Njiinu, currently the firm’s head of corporate finance, who was
appointed to replace Dr Kiuna who held the CEO’s position for eight

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Dr Gachao Kiuna, former TransCentury CEO. PHOTO | FILE
Kenyan Economy

Trans-Century share price data here


Par Value:
Closing Price:           9.00
Total Shares Issued:          280284476.00
Market Capitalization:        2,522,560,284
EPS:             -8.53
PE:                 -1.055

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -3.16% 2016


141.10 -0.76 -0.54%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -5.35% 2016


3,824.60 -14.69 -0.38%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

Sub-Saharan Equity Indices have been pounded in 2016 with Nigeria the
worst performing Index world-wide and -21.27% in 2016 and at a 3 and
1/2 year low.
Concerns around an imminent and long overdue devaluation of the Naira
has undermined the stock market.
Egypt is -15.2% Year To Date through this morning and the South Africa
All Share is -7.53%.
South Africa and Egypt have rallied meaningful today [China GDP whilst
the slowest in two decades was not as bad as some had expected] and we
should see positive spill-over in Nairobi over the next few sessions.
Against this backdrop, Nairobi's performance whilst negative year to
date, shows up as an Outperformer.
The Nairobi All Share closed 0.41 points lower at 140.69 and the All
Share Index is -3.43% in 2016
The Nairobi NSE20 retreated 10.49 points to close at 3835.10.
Equity Turnover picked up speed to clock 907.397m
The Shilling was unchanged at 102.39 and just off a 5 month high ahead
of the MPC decision tomorrow.
I am of the view that the Shilling's recent resilience [a consequence
of the improvement in the Current Account Deficit] and that Inflation
might well have peaked, will stay the Central Bank's Hand.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea and Coffee bounced +5.31% higher to close at 18.85.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom was the busiest counter at the Securities Exchange and
closed unchanged at 16.10 with 22.756m shares worth 366.514m.
Safaricom has retreated -1.22% since the start of 2016 considerably
outperforming the Indices. Expect a strong rebound from these levels.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Equity Bank rowed back -0.62% to close at 39.50 and traded 766,700
shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 2 to 1. Equity is
-1.25% Year To Date.
Kenya Commercial Bank eased back -0.62% to close at 39.50 and traded
766,700 shares. The key price pivot is 40.00 and KCB will regain 40+
in short order.
Standard Chartered rebounded +1.515% to close at 201.00 and was
pushing on and as high as 203.00 +3.03% at the finish line. Standard
Chartered traded 85,100 shares.
CFC Bank rallied +5% to close at 84.00 and traded light.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was sold off -1.92% to close at 255.00 and traded 1.413m shares.
EABL has retreated 6.59% Year To Date and looks good value ahead of
its Earnings Release at the end of month.

Mumias Sugar rallied 5.88% to close at 1.80 and traded 1.088m shares.
Sugar prices have been on the Up and Mumias has rallied +12.5% in

BAT rallied +2.82% to close at a 7 week high of 802.00

ARM Cement ramped +4.29% higher to close at 36.50 and traded 417,300 shares.

Business Daily carried a story about Transcentury which spoke of how
''The company did not explain why the duo stepped down but says it is
working on settling the convertible debt, which matures on March 25.''
According to Business Daily the debt redemption is for 8.1b. Naturally
Convertible Bond holders will not be keen on the conversion because
its now deep out of the money.  Transcentury eased 1.675% to close at
8.80. Transcentury has eked out a +6.66% gain in 2016.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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January 2016

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