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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 21st of January 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Davos Gets Jittery as Trump Rises, Oil Falls and China Slows
Africa


“We have a coming-together of events that are confusing, volatile and
dangerous,” said David Gergen, an adviser to four U.S. presidents and
now a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School.

“I’ve been to so many Davoses,” Dalio said, “and when it’s quiet,
that’s when you should panic.”

Home Thoughts

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The Hot Springs Lake Magadi
Africa


“It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are.” ― E.E. Cummings

“Trust your heart if the seas catch fire, live by love though the
stars walk backward.” ― E.E. Cummings

“Trust your heart if the seas catch fire, live by love though the
stars walk backward.” ― E.E. Cummings

read more


Mid-town Manhattan as pictured from the top of the United Nations building in New York; following a blizzard caused by Storm Juno in January 2015. (Reuters) Reuters
Africa


A snow storm dubbed a 'sleeping giant' is predicted to hit the north
east of the US later this week, possibly including the cities of New
York, Washington, Philidelphia and Boston.

read more


A 1920s photo shows a ceremony at the monastery, where a Christian community thrived for centuries. Photograph: Otrakji family collection/AP
Law & Politics


St Elijah’s monastery in Mosul, which stood as a place of worship for
1,400 years, is thought to have been razed between August and
September 2014

Before it was razed, a partially restored, 27,000-sqft stone and
mortar building stood fortress-like on a hill above Mosul. Although
the roof was largely missing, it had 26 distinctive rooms including a
sanctuary and chapel.

read more




Planet of Fear Pepe Escobar
Law & Politics


The Davos annual talkfest is about to begin; that’s one of those
occasions when the Masters of the Universe – who usually decide
everything behind closed doors – send their minions to «debate» the
future of their holdings. The current debate centers on whether we are
still in the midst of the Third – digitalized – Industrial Revolution
and the Internet of Things or whether we’re already entering the
Fourth.

In the real world though all the cackle is about the age of
old-fashioned oil. Which brings us to the myriad effects of the cheap
oil strategy deployed by the House of Saud under Washington’s command.

Persian Gulf traders, off the record, are adamant that there is no
longer any real global oil surplus of consequence as all shut-in oil
has been dumped on the market based on that Washington command.

Petroleum Intelligence Weekly estimates the surplus is at a maximum
2.2 million a day, plus 600,000 barrels a day coming from Iran later
this year. The US consumption of oil – at 19,840,000 barrels a day,
20% of world production – has not increased; it’s the other 80% that
have been mostly absorbing the dumped oil.

Some key Persian Gulf traders are adamant that oil should be surging
by the second half of 2016. That explains why Russia is not panicking
with oil plunging towards $30 a barrel. Moscow is very much aware of
the «partners» that are carrying oil market manipulation against
Russia, and at the same time is anticipating this won’t last too long.

That explains why Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin
issued a sort of «keep calm and carry on» message; he expects oil
prices to remain in the $40-60 range for at least the next seven
years, and Russia can live with that.

The Masters of the Universe – just like the Russians – have realized
their oil manipulation cannot last. Hysteria, predictably, took over.
That’s why they ordered major Wall Street firms to short oil using
cash settlement. Compliant US corporate media was ordered to spin the
shortfalls will last forever. The target is to drive down the price of
a barrel of oil to $7 if possible.

The original Masters of the Universe strategy would eventually lead to
regime change in Russia and the usual oligarch suspects back in the
saddle re-conducting the massive looting operation Russia suffered
during the 1990s.

A fearful House of Saud is a mere pawn in this strategy. Assuming the
plan would work, the House of Saud under – virtually demented – King
Salman, now confined to a room in his Riyadh palace, would also be
regime-changed, via Saudi military officers trained in the West and
recruited by Western agents. As a bonus, the Islamic Republic of Iran
would also collapse, with «moderates» (rebels?) taking control.

So the Masters of the Universe strategy essentially boils down to
regime-change in Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, leading to
Exceptionalistan-friendly elites/vassals; in sum, the ultimate chapter
in the global Resource Wars. Yet what this is yielding so far is the
House of Saud having absolutely no clue of what may happen to them;
Riyadh royals may think that they are undermining both Iran and
Russia, but in the end they may be only accelerating their own demise.

read more




05-OCT-2015 Putin is a GeoPolitical GrandMaster @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Putin fancies himself the fly-catcher and syria the fly-trap. The
speed of execution confirms that Russia is once again a geopolitical
actor that will have to be considered. It is a breath-taking rebound.

President Obama is now probably considering how he can wrestle the Oil
price to $20.00.

read more





Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0914
Dollar Index 99.02
Japan Yen 116.56
Swiss Franc 1.0030
Pound 1.4162
Aussie 0.6890
India Rupee 68.065
South Korea Won 1214.22
Brazil Real 4.1038
Egypt Pound 7.8291
South Africa Rand 16.8342

read more





Saudi Arabia Said to Ban Betting Against Its Currency
Emerging Markets


With speculation mounting that the world’s biggest oil exporter won’t
be able to maintain the riyal’s peg to the dollar as revenue plunges,
the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency told lenders to halt the sale of
options contracts on riyal forwards. The directive, issued at a Jan.
18 meeting in Riyadh, applies to local banks and the Saudi branches of
international banks, the people said.

Saudi riyal forwards for the next 12 months rose as high as 906 points
before paring the increase to 900 points as of 12:33 p.m. in Riyadh.
The nation’s benchmark stock gauge, the Tadawul All Share Index,
dropped 4.8 percent.

Volatility in the forwards market has been based on “misperception
about Saudi Arabia’s overall economic backdrop,” Governor Fahad
Al-Mubarak said in a statement on Jan. 11. The kingdom will “uphold
its mandate" of maintaining the three-decade old peg at 3.7500 per
dollar.

Conclusions

Probably looking to get their shorts on 1st.

Frontier Markets

read more


A top Mozambican opposition official and lawmaker was shot and seriously wounded Wednesday in the central city of Beira, Renamo said
Africa


 A top Mozambican opposition official and lawmaker was shot and
seriously wounded Wednesday in the central city of Beira, Renamo said,
raising fears the attack might heighten political tensions in the
country.

Manuel Bissopo "had just come out of a press conference where he
denounced the kidnapping and killing of three of our members when two
military and security cars gave chase and then attacked him," Renamo
spokesman Antonio Muchanga, told AFP.

"We would really like to know their motive," he said.

Bissopo is the secretary general of the former rebel movement turned
opposition party Renamo and a member of the Pan African parliament,
the legislative arm of the African Union (AU).

The attack comes amid renewed tensions between government and the
party. Sporadic clashes between government forces and Renamo have
occurred in recent months.

read more








Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 7.83
Africa


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -17.55% 2016 [29 month Low]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

5,776.59 -320.86 -5.26%

The bourse is at its lowest level since July 2012 and trades at 6.7
times forward earnings, compared with 10.1 times for the MSCI Emerging
Markets Index and 8.6 times for the Frontier Markets Index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/devalue-or-watch-your-stocks-tumble-investor-message-to-nigeria

read more






MONDAY, JANUARY 18, 2016 Analysts expect steady lending rate as CBK team meets By BRIAN NGUGI
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi-based analyst Aly Khan Satchu said: “I would like to think the
MPC will stand aside this time around. The Central Bank acted
pre-emptively (last November) and governor (Dr Patrick) Njoroge was
ahead of the curve. The shilling is just shy of a 5-month high
(confounding the naysayers) and is behaving with some resilience.
Inflation has surely peaked now and, therefore, I expect the central
banker to bank some of his bona fides and leave rates unchanged.”

read more







Prehistoric massacre in Kenya called oldest evidence of warfare
Kenyan Economy


Man's inhumanity to man, as 18th century Scottish poet Robert Burns
put it, is no recent development.

Scientists said on Wednesday they had found the oldest evidence of
human warfare, fossils of a band of people massacred by a troop of
attackers with weapons including arrows, clubs and stone blades on the
shores of a lagoon in Kenya about 10,000 years ago.

The remains of 27 people from a Stone Age hunter-gatherer culture were
unearthed at a site called Nataruk roughly 20 miles (30 km) west of
Lake Turkana in northern Kenya.

One man's skeleton was found with a sharp blade made of a volcanic
glass called obsidian still embedded in his skull. Another man had
wounds from two blows to the head apparently with a club, crushing his
skull. A woman in the last stages of pregnancy appeared to have been
bound by her hands and feet.

Victims also had projectile wounds to the neck and broken skulls,
hands, knees and ribs.

University of Cambridge paleoanthropologist Marta Mirazón Lahr said
evidence indicates these people, who hunted animals, caught fish and
gathered edible plants, were slain in a premeditated attack by
raiders, perhaps from another region.

"It is a brutal, physical, lethal attack with the intention to kill
those individuals who could put up a defense or mount a
counter-attack, or who perhaps were of no use to them, whether it was
a man or a very pregnant woman, too young or too old," Mirazón Lahr.

Our species arose 200,000 years ago in Africa. Many scholars had
thought warfare first emerged long after the time of the Nataruk
people when humans formed settled communities instead of a nomadic,
hunter-gatherer existence.

The Nataruk fossils "raise the question of whether warfare has been
part of the human experience for much longer than previously thought,"
Mirazón Lahr added.

A planned attack would suggest that resources the Nataruk people
possessed, perhaps water, dried meat or fish, nuts or even women and
children, were considered valuable, she said.

There were remains of 21 adults and six children, most under age 6.
There were no older teenagers. "Whether they managed to escape, or
were taken, we will never know," she said.

"At the end, all massacres are savage," Mirazón Lahr said. "How many
examples do we have from our very recent, and current, history? But
finding the remains of a massacre among the skeletons of
hunter-gatherers of this period was totally surprising."

The research appeared in the journal Nature.

read more



Kenya Rattled as Shabab Turns Sights on Somalia Military Targets New York Times
Kenyan Economy


NAIROBI, Kenya — The attackers burst into the Kenyan military base in
Somalia before dawn, blasting through the gate with a truckload of
explosives.

Scores of Shabab militants then flooded through the flames, on foot
and in trucks, firing heavy guns into the plastic-covered shelters
where the Kenyan soldiers were sleeping.

“That battle was over before it started,” said one official in Nairobi
with detailed knowledge of the attack. “The Shabab did their homework
and completely wiped them out.”

Somali and Western officials now say that 80 to 100 Kenyan soldiers —
and possibly more — were massacred during the attack, which took place
on Friday at the El-Adde forward operating base. The Shabab overran
the base, held it for several hours and made off with sensitive
communications equipment, artillery pieces that can fire 10 miles and
several American-made armored Humvees.

But since then, Kenya’s leaders have refused to disclose the number of
dead or other details, trying to soften the blow of what may be the
worst military disaster in this country’s history.

“This has been a shock,” said Yusuf Hassan, a member of Kenya’s
Parliament. “We’re not Burundi, we’re not Ethiopia, we’re not Uganda.
Our country does not have a history of war. We’ve never experienced
anything like this.”

They have killed scores of soldiers and stolen their arsenals. Their
propaganda videos show alarming amounts of guns, vehicles and
overflowing buckets of bullets now in their hands.

“This is going to end no time soon,” said David M. Anderson, a
professor of African history at the University of Warwick and a renown
expert on modern Kenya.

The Kenyan Army’s incursion simply brought the Shabab deeper into
Kenya, setting off a string of increasingly devastating suicide
missions that have killed hundreds of civilians and hurt the economy,
especially the tourism industry. Kenyan soldiers have also been
accused of smuggling sugar, as well as other illegal activities inside
Somalia.

Mr. Mwangi also criticized President Uhuru Kenyatta for attending
political rallies in the Mombasa area this past week. “It’s a national
shame that our president is busy politicking while the dead bodies are
coming home,” he said.

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today


The MPC left rates unchanged yesterday.
Standard Chartered's Chief Africa Economist Razia Khan struck an an
upbeat Note for 2016 for Kenya's economy yesterday.
In fact my view is that East Africa and Kenya in particular will
out-perform in 2016.
My improving Trajectory [I am looking for 6% GDP in 2016] is first
informed by Meteorology.
The El-Nino Weather System whilst scorching Farms south of Kenya
[Malawi, Zimbabwe, Zambia, South Africa] and to the North [Ethiopia]
has proven ''benign'' for Kenya as evidenced that we continue to have
rain at this time of Year in Nairobi.
So The first point to note is that Kenya is in a meteorological sweet spot.
The sharply reduced Oil Price has meant a Trend Change in a perennial
challenge for East African Economies - The Current Account Deficits.
Government has snaffled up the benefit in order to improve its fiscal
position but this is a dramatic development.
The East African Shillings have for the most part stabilised [ex
Uganda which is always defensive ahead of an Election and the
attendant risks of pump-priming] and that is noteworthy development at
a time when currency markets are being roiled.
Kenya and East Africa will also look handsome in the comparison
because the rest of Africa from Abuja to Luanda, from Lusaka to
Johannesburg is taking a fearful beating.
The Nairobi All Share was not able to snap its losing streak and
closed 1.303% lower at 137.02. The All Share has closed at a 10 week
Low.
The Nairobi NSE20 retreated 0.96% and has closed at a 42 month Low.
Equity Turnover was 500.27m.



N.S.E Equities - Agricultural


Sasini Tea and Coffee firmed +2.79% to close at 20.25 and traded 22,000 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom corrected -3.174% to close at 15.25 a 10 week closing Low
and traded 2.931m shares. Safaricom has retreated 5.279% over two
trading sessions. Safaricom and other Big Cap stocks have imported
international Volatility because of the higher ratio of foreign
Shareholders on their share register.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Equity Bank was the busiest counter at the Securities Exchange to
close -0.65% easier at 38.25 and traded 4.485m shares worth 172.222m.
Equity is -4.375% in 2016.
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 37.50 but was trading at
session highs of 39.00 +4.00% at the closing Bell, signalling we are
headed back to the pivot price Level of 40.00 in short order. KCB
traded 3.267m shares.
Diamond Trust Bank rallied +2.74% to close at 187.00 making that a
cumulative +5.64% 2 session rebound. DTB traded 112,200 shares.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL closed unchanged at 255.00 and traded 243,100 shares. EABL was
trading at session highs of 260.00 +1.96% at the Closing Bell and
might have been lifted by news out of SAB Miller, where according to
SABMiller CEO Alan Clark Africa “performed well across the board.”
EABL will reporting at Month-End and I expect a strong Earnings
Release and expect the share price to lift from this closing level.

KenGen closed unchanged at 5.50 but traded shares as high as 6.00
+10.00% with 2.455m shares changing hands. We have seen sharpened
volumes at 52 week Lows. The share price is currently dislocated and
the PE Ratio is 1.04.

Eveready firmed +1.85% to close at 2.80 and was trading at the daily
limit of 3.00 +9.09% at the Closing Bell.

Trans-Century which is seeking to redeem or at least roll-over a now
''deep out of the money'' convertible Bond, where the value of the
Bond is 8.1b versus a market capitalisation of about 2.4b firmed
+2.37% on light trading.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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