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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Friday 22nd of January 2016
 
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Africa

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@KenGenKenya share price data here
Africa


Market Capitalization 12,090,987,392
EPS: 5.24
PE:1.050

Macro Thoughts

Brent, the global benchmark, has surged more than 11 percent in the
past two days after settling at $27.88 a barrel on Wednesday, the
lowest close since November 2003. The contract gained as much as
$1.85, or 6.3 percent, to $31.10 on Friday. Prices slid 35 percent
last year.

read more




“It is not down on any map; true places never are.” ― Herman Melville, Moby-Dick
Africa


“We're a crowd, a swarm. We think in groups, travel in armies. Armies
carry the gene for self-destruction. One bomb is never enough. The
blur of technology, this is where the oracles plot their wars. Because
now comes the introversion. Father Teilhard knew this, the omega
point. A leap out of our biology. Ask yourself this question. Do
wehave to be human forever? Consciousness is exhausted. Back now to
inorganic matter. This is what we want. We want to be stones in a
field.” ― Don DeLillo, Point Omega

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“The true life is not reducible to words spoken or written, not by anyone, ever.” ― Don DeLillo, Point Omega
Africa


“The true life is not reducible to words spoken or written, not by
anyone, ever. The true life takes place when we're alone, thinking
feeling, lost in memory, dreamingly self-aware, the submicroscopic
moments.” ― Don DeLillo, Point Omega

read more




Early humans lived in the Olorgesailie region, in what is now the southern Kenya, between 1.2 million and 490,000 years ago.
Africa


Early humans lived in the Olorgesailie region, in what is now the
southern Kenya, between 1.2 million and 490,000 years ago. Excavations
at Olorgesailie show the habitats and animals these early humans
encountered, the handaxe tools they made, and the climate challenges
they met.

Olorgesailie is a sedimentary basin located in southern Kenya in the
East African Rift Valley. It has been excavated for many years and
contains many artifacts that have accumulated over a long time period.
Here we will look at finds unearthed in this region dated between 1.2
million and 490,000 years ago. Faunal remains (the fossil bones of
animals) tell us which animal species lived in the Olorgesailie area,
while the sediments show the changes that occurred in the environment,
such as the expansion or drying up of a lake, the presence of rivers,
and the eruption of volcanoes.

Artifacts have been excavated at Olorgesailie since 1942. Olorgesailie
is unusual because of the large number of handaxes found there, along
with other bifacial tools (flaked on two sides to create an edge).
Archeologists used to assume that excavated sites provide examples of
campsites (home bases) or other living spaces typical of modern human
hunter-gatherers. Yet sites are difficult to interpret without looking
at the factors that can disturb the pattern of artifacts and bones,
moving them, destroying items, or rearranging them to mix layers from
different time periods. It is also interesting to consider how very
old archeological sites provide evidence of behaviors that aren’t
quite like those of contemporary or recent humans who forage for food
as a way of life.

The latest fieldwork at Olorgesailie is a collaborative effort of the
Smithsonian’s Human Origins Program and the Department of Earth
Sciences of the National Museums of Kenya. Led by Dr. Rick Potts, the
excavations offer a look at how early hominins used the landscape and
how they responded to environmental changes.

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Insurgency Tail Risk 08-SEP-2014
Law & Politics


Last year, Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said:
"As protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes."

The insurgency tail risk remains and how it plays out will have
important consequence for ourselves and the entire Africarising
narrative.

read more
















24 AUG 15 China Roils The Markets @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


“It’s totally premature to speak of a crisis in China,” a senior IMF
Official told a press conference.

In my experience, when policy makers make these kind of
pronouncements, it is exactly because there is a crisis.

“At the moment none of us can read China,” said the CEO of Glencore. I
can and it is going to get a lot worse, I am afraid.

The further problem is that no one believes the data either. This
moment when the market stops suspending its disbelief is seriously a
dangerous one for policy makers.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0833
Dollar Index 99.36
Japan Yen 118.03 a one-year trough of 115.97 struck earlier this week
Swiss Franc 1.0090
Pound 1.4230
Aussie 0.7027
India Rupee 67.725
South Korea Won 1200.63
Brazil Real 4.1557
Egypt Pound 7.8298
South Africa Rand 16.6015

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Bank of Russia Chief Axes Davos Trip as Ruble Speculators Pounce
Emerging Markets


The Bank of Russia’s press service gave no reason for Governor Elvira
Nabiullina’s decision not to travel to Davos on a day that the ruble
declined as much as 5.3 percent to 85.999 per dollar, the most in
emerging markets.

“It’s sensible not to stand in the way of a freight train,” he said.
“When you have oil prices under such pressure, it makes sense not to
stand in the way. Oil prices will probably trade down to the low 20s
and the ruble will follow.”

Conclusions

read more




The Vice Admiral Kulakov’s main role is to track foreign submarines. Photograph: Vladimir Isachenkov/AP
Emerging Markets


Russian has paraded it naval might in the Mediterranean, inviting
reporters aboard a destroyer cruising off Syria’s coast in scenes
reminiscent of the Soviet era.

The military demonstrated its global presence on Thursday by bringing
Moscow-based journalists aboard the Vice Admiral Kulakov destroyer,
which sailed alongside the flagship of the Russian naval group, the
Varyag missile cruiser.

By establishing a long-term presence in the eastern Mediterranean, the
Russian military has revived a Soviet-era capability to project naval
power far from its borders.

Frontier Markets

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Fearing genocide, ex-Burundi presidents plead for U.N. troops
Africa


Two former Burundi presidents pleaded for the United Nations Security
Council on Thursday to back the deployment of international troops to
the African state gripped by political violence because it "runs the
risk of becoming another Rwanda"

Diplomats of the 15-member council arrived in Burundi's capital
Bujumbura on Thursday evening for its second visit to the tiny
landlocked state in less than a year, where fears of an ethnic war
have also led to an economic crisis.

The Security Council is due to meet President Pierre Nkurunziza on
Friday. Violence broke out after Nkurunziza's decision in April to
seek a third term. His opponents said the move was unconstitutional
but he went on to win a disputed election in July.

Hundreds of pro-government protesters lined the road from the airport
to the U.N. envoys' hotel, welcoming them with drumming and dancing
and signs with messages such as: "Burundi is sovereign, stop
interfering in Burundi home affairs."

There were several grenade explosions on Thursday in Bujumbura, but no
further details were known, diplomats and police said. Since April, at
least 439 people have been killed and the number might be
"considerably higher," the United Nations said. Some 232,000 people
have fled the country.

The envoys, led by U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha
Power and senior Angolan and French diplomats, met Jean-Baptiste
Bagaza, Burundi's president from 1976-87 and Domitien Ndayizeye,
president from 2003-05.

Bagaza said armed outside support was necessary to reassure
Burundians. Both former presidents called on the Security Council to
back such a move.

"Otherwise we run the risk of becoming another Rwanda," Bagaza said.
"We already have a heavy death toll, a great deal of destruction to
the economy."

read more



Pentagon expands in Africa @Africa_conf
Africa


The US Africa Command is improving its logistics south of the Sahara
because it believes insurgent threats are growing

Africa is home to 'growing threats and opportunities', says the United
States Africa Command (Africom) Commander, General David M. Rodriguez.
The USA is accordingly improving its access to all parts of the
continent so as to be able to move there quickly if the need should
arise. The threats Rodriguez refers to include Da'ish ('Islamic
State', IS), Somalia's Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen, other Al
Qaida affiliates and Nigeria's Boko Haram, now officially part of
Da'ish. Africom also works with the Ugandan military to counter Joseph
Kony's Lord's Resistance Army, which operates out of Central African
Republic and Sudan . It is also believed to be working closely with
French forces in the Sahel and West Africa.

Conclusions

US has a decisive Hard Power Advantage over the African Continent.

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ALY-KHAN SATCHU Wrote: (your comment) US can insert Hard Power with which it can tilt the African Pitch.
Africa


Taking a broader Sweep, it is clear that the United States and
@USAfricaCommand has carved out a much more forward Position on the
African Continent. In some respects, @BarackObama 's Pivot to Asia
detours through Africa. China has made a Parabolic Advance across the
African Continent and one of the 'desired' Side Effects of staunching
the 'Al-Qaeda' Advance is that it also counters the Chinese Advance
via The Insertion of US Hard Power. The US cannot challenge China's
Extreme Dollar Diplomacy but it can insert Hard Power with which it
can tilt the African Pitch.

Zbigniew Brzezinski [whom I admire and I believe is a Foreign Policy
Eminence Grise and has @BarackObama's Ear] once said that '' the three
grand imperatives of imperial geostrategy are to prevent collusion and
maintain security dependence among the vassals, to keep tributaries
pliant and protected, and to keep the barbarians from coming
together."


I think the interesting Point is how Africa has now become Front and
Centre of the Geopolitical Global Puzzle and the Collision between US
Hard Power and China's Soft Power

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A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean. 19-AUG-2013
Africa


Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why 'The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history', made possible by the
'reversible escalator' of the monsoon.'

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US'
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st. [President Kenyatta probably posed the question to
Vladimir Putin, whether Russia felt it had a role to play in this
Energy Great Game in East Africa]. Therefore, the control of the
Indian Ocean becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be
shut down quite quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama's
pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

read more





After the 'rising' – now reform and realism Africa Confidential
Africa


Bankers' bets, based on glossy analytical reports about Africa's lion
economies and a doubling of its gross domestic product by 2025, were
discreetly torn up last year. In their place are downbeat prognoses
about Africa's position in a much harsher global economic and
political climate (AC Vol 56 No 1, New ideas, harder times and a few
surprises).

For the irrepressible optimists, this year's hard times will
concentrate minds. Take Nigeria, where President Muhammadu Buhari's
government says it is determined to combat the falling oil prices with
an expansionist or Keynesian programme of capital investment and to
restructure the economy to end its chronic dependence on oil exports.
It would certainly help if Nigeria's top industrialist, Aliko Dangote,
has as much success with his oil refining and petrochemical businesses
as he has with cement production. Thanks to Dangote's astute financial
calculations and political diplomacy, he has made Nigeria a net
exporter of cement. He plans to do the same with petroleum products
and petrochemicals, if he can hold his nerve. The value of his
investments have already fallen by over 20% on the Nigerian Stock
Exchange.

Business people and oppositionists chant similar mantras about
restructuring in South Africa and Angola, and there is more interest
in the dirigiste model of economic restructuring developed by
Ethiopia, Morocco and Rwanda, and the more market-led developments in
Kenya.

World Bank economists reckon that the downward trajectory started in
2014, when average GDP growth in Africa fell to 4.6% and its latest
report notes a further slowing to 3.4%. For this year, the Bank offers
a modicum of optimism with a forecast rise to 4.2%.*

Five developments fuel the gloomier outlook for Africa. Firstly,
China's economic rebalancing and slowdown. By some measures, China is
already the world's biggest economy and for Africa, it is certainly
the most influential one by dint of the more than US$200 billion
annual trade account with the continent's 55 economies.
As agile as
any Western spin doctors, Chinese officials went to great lengths at
last December's Forum for China-Africa Cooperation to promote a new
package of $60 bn. worth of investment and loans to Africa, as they
explained some of the consequences of their country's economic
restructuring. As trade between China and Africa slows in the short
term, Beijing's officials made much of the prospects for cooperation
on big industrial projects on the continent. That, though, is very
much a medium-term prospect.

Secondly, the commodity price crash cannot all be blamed on China and
it is not blighting all Africa's exports. For example, export earnings
from cocoa, coffee and tea look set to hold up in both the
increasingly lucrative specialist markets and in the traditional bulk
purchase markets. In other areas, the commodity news is undeniably
grim: the millions of extra barrels of oil on the international market
seem destined to push down prices further, short of a spectacular
political shock such as the collapse of the monarchy in Saudi Arabia.
With United States' and European sanctions lifted against Venezuela,
Iran and perhaps Russia, the prospects are for yet more and cheaper
oil.

Mining companies are laying off workers across Africa: at least 50,000
people in South Africa and tens of thousands in Congo-Kinshasa and
Zambia.
Here, the forecast demand for copper, cobalt and iron ore is
more complicated because of the long lead-time to develop a mine. More
optimistic analysts argue that India – now the fastest growing big
economy in Asia – could replace China as the most important metals
buyer for Africa. Again, that is more of a medium-term prospect. Just
as international oil companies are cancelling exploration and
production operations in Africa and elsewhere, big mining projects,
such as the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, will struggle to
raise finance (AC Vol 56 No 22, Condé consolidates as opposition
regroups).

Thirdly, the Western-dominated financial sector will impose tougher
terms on African borrowers and raising finance for big capital
projects will get harder still. With a stronger dollar and higher
domestic interest rates, more cautious financiers are returning to the
US markets. Not only will African countries have to pay higher
interest rates on fresh sovereign bond issues, the costs of servicing
existing debts are likely to rise sharply. Already, the vulture funds
of Wall Street are eagerly surveying the market for bargains.

Fourthly, the political and security climate is scaring off Africa's
many short-term investors and fair-weather friends.
More liquid equity
and money markets such as South Africa's have lost billions in value
over the past year, partly because of self-inflicted wounds but also
due to growing corporate nervousness about the reality behind those
Panglossian reports about Africa's fast growing middle classes. More
robust responses from governments and institutions such as the African
Development Bank to counter to some of the nonsensical swings in
international sentiment on Africa could help. So could much better
data and statistics, as well as an African ratings agency that can
evaluate political risk with inside knowledge, rather than long-range
speculative assessments.

Although Africa's security crises are most serious in the Horn, the
Sahel and Libya, few foreign assessments make those distinctions.
Accordingly, the tourism and service industries have been heavily hit
by the wave of Islamist attacks over the past couple of years and the
growing sense of threat across the region. In places such as Kenya's
Coast Province, this reinforces a cycle of economic and political
insecurity when terror attacks close down tourist facilities,
weakening local economies and exacerbating grievances.

Fifthly, the extreme weather – longer droughts and heavier flooding –
associated with climate change is doing increasingly serious damage to
agriculture in Africa as well as worsening social conditions more
generally.
Despite the celebrations around the climate change treaty
in Paris in December, there were few guarantees of new money to enable
African economies to adapt to global warming. However, some of the
bolder sustainable energy projects in Africa – such as solar power in
West Africa and the 'green energy corridor' in East Africa
– point the
way to new economic strategies which could give the
commodity-dependent countries a much needed boost.

How are African governments likely to react to the tougher conditions?
Some politically vulnerable governments are planning more social
protection schemes while others are looking for ways to pull in more
foreign investment. We hear that Nigeria's new Trade and Investment
Minister, Okechukwu Enelamah, wants to cut through the country's
business bureaucracy (AC Vol 56 No 23, Buhari resets the clock).
Currently, Nigeria is 169th out of 189 countries surveyed by the World
Bank's 'Ease of Doing Business' ratings.

Central bankers, too, will look much harder at the viability of the
commercial banking sectors as bad debts grow, in some cases due to
mounting payment arrears on state contracts. State treasuries will
face their own problems in coping with rising foreign debt burdens,
made heavier by a stronger dollar and rising interest rates. The IMF
warns of a decline in the competitiveness of Africa's economies and
poor performance of its manufacturers, hit by unreliable power, poor
transport links and again, bureaucracy.


The IMF believes inadequate infrastructure, despite falling transport
cost, high wages and over-valued exchange rates are partly to blame.
It adds that most governments lack the financial buffers that they had
in 2009 to weather that financial crisis. Then, substantial reserves
and modest deficits allowed governments to introduce projects and
programmes – counter-cyclical spending – to protect the poorest. This
time, those buffers don't exist.

The IMF also reckons that oil producers such as Angola and Nigeria
will have to make 'sharp fiscal adjustments' and will see growth
levels sharply down (see Chart). It also predicts growth of more than
6% for several countries, such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania,
Mozambique, Rwanda, Côte d'Ivoire, Congo-Kinshasa and Chad.

read more


India to increase oil imports from Africa
Africa


"We imported 32 million ton of crude in 2014 from Africa, including 3
million tons from North Africa and 29 million tons from West Africa,
mainly from Nigeria and Angola. This constitutes approximately 16 per
cent of our consumption. This is going to increase in the coming
years," Pradhan said.

Speaking at the inaugural session of the 4th India-Africa Hydrocarbons
Conference, he said over the past two decades, the African hydrocarbon
sector has been expanding rapidly as also the interests of Indian oil
companies in the continent.

"As a matter of policy, the present Indian government is keen to move
towards a geographically diversified energy basket. This has resulted
in India's greater focus on Africa as a vital region for sourcing
petroleum products in coming years," he said.

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Indian primary energy
consumption in the last 15 years has been about 7.3 per cent as
compared to a global CAGR of 3 per cent.

A revolution from below Africa is redefining what it means to be
middle class Economist

http://www.theworldin.com/article/10498/revolution-below?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/theworldin2016

This growing class of consumers is attracting a herd of private-equity
firms and multinational consumer-goods companies, to cash in on what
McKinsey, a consultancy, called Africa’s “single-largest business
opportunity”.


This seems fanciful. Even though the region’s economy has expanded at
an average pace of close to 5% over the past 15 years—enough to have
more than doubled economic output—the proceeds of this have not been
evenly distributed. Moreover, most poor Africans were in such deep
poverty that even a doubling of income (from say $1 to $2 a day) is
not enough to lift them out of it. Among the biggest boosters of the
idea that Africa’s middle class would explode is the African
Development Bank. In an influential report in 2011 it reckoned that
this class had already tripled in size in 30 years and was 300m
strong. Yet its study was based on the bold classification of the
category as including anyone with more than $2 a day to spend. About
half of this supposed middle class live on less than $4 a day.

A somewhat more sober assessment by South Africa’s Standard Bank that
is based on the spending power and consumer habits of families
(whether they have a television, for instance) reckons that there are
just 15m middle-class people in 11 of sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest
economies. Almost a third of these live in Nigeria; hardly any are in
Ethiopia. Small as this class may be, it is already having outsized
effects in driving innovation that will allow it to enjoy many of the
goods that were once the preserve of richer folk. In 2016 the impact
will be felt across many areas of life—and in ever more parts of
Africa.


A carer for a woman who died of Ebola in Sierra Leone has now been
infected with the virus, heightening fears of a fresh flare-up just
days after West Africa was declared officially free of the disease.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/fear-sierra-leone-ebola-case-confirmed-160121055559943.html

The second case to be identified in less than a week is a 38-year-old
woman who had helped to care for last week's victim, Mariatu Jalloh,
health ministry spokesman Sidi Yahyah Tunis said according to a report
by Reuters news agency.

read more


South Africa's @SAPresident Zuma criticised for Davos panel no-show
Africa


Zuma's office denied he was a 'no-show' at the discussion, which
featured Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and Rwandan
President Paul Kagame, saying it had told Davos organisers last week
of a "scheduling change".

read more






Nigeria plans to borrow up to $5 billion from multiple sources, including the Eurobond market
Africa


Last week the naira NGN=D1 - hit by a foreign exchange scarcity in the
face of low oil receipts - fell to a record low of 305 to the dollar
on the parallel market, compared with the official rate of 197.

The central bank has faced criticism for imposing a number of
restrictions last year aimed at conserving foreign exchange reserves.
It said January foreign reserves had fallen to around $28 billion,
compared with $37 billion in June 2014.

read more


Nigerian non-deliverable currency forwards indicated markets expected the naira exchange rate at 284.00 to the dollar in 12 months' time.
Africa


Nigerian non-deliverable currency forwards, a derivative product used
to hedge against future exchange rate moves, indicated markets
expected the naira exchange rate at 265.00 to the dollar in six months
time, and at 284.00 to the dollar in 12 months' time.

read more



CBK tells Imperial Bank owners to deposit Sh10bn pledge
Kenyan Economy


The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has asked Imperial Bank shareholders
to deposit Sh10 billion as a pre-condition for opening dialogue on
their pledge for re-opening the lender.

“We are very open to real genuine proposals to re-open the bank. There
is an account here in the CBK, if you are serious put the money there
then we can discuss,” said CBK Governor Patrick Njoroge at a press
briefing on Thursday.

The governor disclosed that the regulator has paid out nearly Sh6
billion to depositors of the collapsed bank.

He said he had been waiting on the shareholders, who he referred to as
“people with means,” to honour their pledge made soon after the
closure of the bank in October, in vain.

Conclusions

The Conundrum is this The Board is either incompetent or complicit.

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Patrick Njoroge said the current account deficit was forecast to fall to 8.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2015, from 10.4 percent the year before, and narrow further in 2016.
Kenyan Economy


Njoroge said that high commercial bank lending rates, at above 17
percent in December, were "troubling" but that liquidity was now
evenly distributed among banks after getting skewed following the
collapse of one bank.

Njoroge said he was open to "real" dialogue with shareholders of
Imperial Bank - under receivership since October - and reiterated the
fate of the bank will be clearer in March.

Conclusions

read more


11-JAN-2016 There is a massive trend-change occurring in front of our eyes in what was a previously intractable problem
Kenyan Economy


There is a massive trend-change occurring in front of our eyes in what
was a previously intractable problem, the perennial current account
deficits. This is an important point to note. Our import bills [fuel
and associated product are the single biggest expense item] have
cratered

read more


Kenyan politics Rifts in the Rift Economist
Kenyan Economy


DRIVE west out of Nairobi and you quickly realise how astonishing the
topography around the Kenyan capital is. After an hour or so crawling
in traffic past tea fields and farmers selling sheep skins and fresh
vegetables, motorists suddenly find themselves on an escarpment from
which the land simply drops away. On the horizon, mist clings to the
top of Mount Longonot, a dormant volcano. Before it, a patchwork of
tiny green farms stretches across the valley floor like a carpet.

This is the central part of the Rift Valley, a vast depression that
stretches thousands of miles. It is Kenya’s breadbasket and its most
densely populated region. Its flower farms, tea fields and coffee
plantations provide much of the country’s exports, as well as
employment for thousands of workers. Its geothermal energy plants
provide Nairobi with cheap electricity; its lakes provide water and
its farms food.

In politics, too, the Rift Valley plays a central role. It contains a
key constituency that Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya’s president, needs to win
over if he is to be returned to office in an election due next year.
Mr Kenyatta, who is from the Kikuyu, Kenya’s largest tribe, won in
2013 by forging an alliance with William Ruto, a politician who is
popular among the Kalenjin-speaking people who are numerous in the
Rift. Yet with Mr Ruto arraigned at the International Criminal Court
(ICC) in The Hague on charges of instigating violence after disputed
elections in 2007, and the economic boom slowing across Africa, what
happens over the next year in the Rift Valley will be crucial to
Kenya’s fate.

Polling day is more than 18 months away, but electioneering is already
under way. In Nakuru, the biggest city in the region, the office of
the Kenyan electoral commission buzzes with young workers clutching
application forms for jobs as officials. As many as 1.5m voters will
be registered over the next few months, says Ezekiel Muiruri, the
local administrator.

On the shore of Lake Naivasha, the election is beginning to worry
some. Here, tourist camps sit alongside acres of greenhouses from
which, every day, millions of roses are flown to Europe and the Far
East. The farms are flourishing: between 1995 and 2014, the annual
volume of flowers exported rose from 29,000 tonnes to 137,000, drawing
workers from across Kenya.

Yet this influx of migrants means that the area around Naivasha is no
longer so dominated by either the Kikuyu or Kalenjin. Its
kaleidoscopic tribal mix has long made Kenyan politics jumpy and
sometimes violent. Tribal tension is always liable to boil over during
elections and the Rift Valley remains a political cauldron.

For the first decade-and-a-half after independence in 1964 the Kikuyu,
led by Jomo Kenyatta (the current president’s father) were on top.
Then, under President Daniel arap Moi, the Kalenjin started to call a
lot of the shots. In 2002 Mr Moi was succeeded by Mwai Kibaki, who
reasserted Kikuyu power. But this was challenged at the polls in late
2007 by an alliance led by Raila Odinga, the head of a particularly
aggrieved tribe, the Luo, alongside Mr Ruto, the Kalenjin’s main
torchbearer.

When the results of that election were contested places like Naivasha
and Nakuru erupted in violence that shattered the country during the
first part of 2008. At least 1,300 people were killed and 300,000-plus
displaced. At Karagita, a slum that borders the lake, a group of men
fret about the possibility of ethnic violence similar to what happened
after the election in 2007. “The way politicians are speaking now
makes me nervous,” says Julius, a tailor, hunched over his ageing
sewing machine. He fears that politicians will once again whip up
ethnic tensions.

Most Kenyan analysts think Messrs Kenyatta and Ruto could easily win
again if they stick together. But that is not assured. One problem is
the case at the ICC: for the past two years, Mr Ruto, with the backing
of the entire Kenyan government, has been seeking to have the charges
thrown out. But instead proceedings have moved slowly. On January
12th, he appeared in The Hague. Many of Mr Ruto’s supporters question
why he is still in the dock when charges against Mr Kenyatta have been
dropped. If Mr Ruto is convicted, his alliance with Mr Kenyatta may
crumble.

Another problem is that although in 2013 Mr Ruto was able to deliver
the crucial Rift Valley votes of the Kalenjin, he is not the only
politician representing them. Gideon Moi, a senator and the son of the
former president, and Isaac Ruto, a county governor (no relation to
William), are two potential challengers.

The government also faces two further challenges to its popularity.
The first is a slowing economy. Despite the fall in oil prices and a
weaker currency, flower exporters say their margins are narrowing,
mainly because many of their costs are incurred in strengthening
dollars. Inflation is surging. So too are interest rates as the
central bank tries to stabilise a currency that has fallen sharply.
Another issue is that instead of the usual pre-election splurge, the
government is having to tighten its belt to deal with a fiscal deficit
that reached almost 9% of GDP in 2015. Whatever happens in the run-up
to elections, the Rift Valley will be at the centre of it.

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Eveready East Africa Ltd.reports FY EPS 2.80 versus [0.85] Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           2.80
Total Shares Issued:          210000000.00
Market Capitalization:        588,000,000
EPS:             2.80
PE:                1.00

Kenyan battery manufacturer.

Eveready East Africa Limited Full Year through 30th September 2015 vs
30th September 2014 (restated)
FY Revenue 1.132136b vs. 1.216580b -6.94%
FY Operating profit 11.872m vs. 54.811m -78.340%

FY Plant closure costs [6.702m] vs. [246.342m] -94.279%
FY Finance costs [104.082m] vs. [56.483m] +84.271%
FY Loss for the year [77.710m] vs. [177.590m] -56.242%
FY Other comprehensive income 665.533m vs. 0.107m
FY Total comprehensive profit/[Loss] per year 587.823m vs. [177.453m] +431.226%
FY EPS 2.80 vs. [0.85] +429.412%
Total assets 1.511665b vs. 0.930057b +62.535%
FY Net cash generated from operating activities 1.196m vs. [146.233m] +100.818%
FY Net cash from investing activities 56.213m vs. [11.134m] +6204. 877%
FY Net cash from financing activities [57.083m] vs. [2.364m] +2314.679%
FY Total cash movement for the year 0.326m vs. [159.731m] -100.204%
FY Total cash at the end of the year [285.519m] vs. [285.845m] -0.114%

Conclusions


revalued their Nakuru Property

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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