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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 28th of January 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
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What is #Mindspeak? @Youtube
Africa


This Saturday #Mindspeak will be hosting the CS Treasury Henry Rotich.
My Co-Host is @KCBGroup CEO Joshua Oigara

This Session will start at 9 and end at 11 @InterconNairobi

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Facebook Inc smashed investors' expectations with a 52-percent jump in quarterly revenue as it sold more ads targeted at a fast-growing number of mobile users
Africa


Total revenue rose to $5.84 billion from $3.85 billion a year earlier,
with ad revenue increasing 56.8 percent to $5.64 billion in the
holiday shopping period, when spending on advertising typically
spikes.

read more




25-AUG-2014 His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the #MH370
Africa


"We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.''

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The Peaks of Mount Kenya seen from the Slopes of @Fairmontmtkenya @Fairmonthotels
Africa


“And as I sat there brooding on the old, unknown world, I thought of
Gatsby’s wonder when he first picked out the green light at the end of
Daisy’s dock. He had come a long way to this blue lawn, and his dream
must have seemed so close that he could hardly fail to grasp it. He
did not know that it was already behind him, somewhere back in that
vast obscurity beyond the city, where the dark fields of the republic
rolled on under the night.

Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by
year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that's no
matter—to-morrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther. . .
. And one fine morning——

So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”

― F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby

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Out Of Africa Karen Blixen
Africa


P.196

The early morning Air of the African highlands is of such a tangible
coldness and freshness that time after time the same fancy there comes
back to you: you are not on Earth but in dark deep waters, going ahead
along the bottom of the Sea. It is not even certain that you are
moving at all: the flows of chilliness against your Face may be the
deep-sea currents, and your car, like some sluggish electric Fish, may
be sitting steadily upon the bottom of the Sea, staring in front of
her with the glaring Eyes of her Lamps, and letting the submarine life
pass by here. The Stars are so large because they are not real stars
but reflections, shimmering upon the surface of the Water. Alongside
your path on the sea-bottom, live things, darker than their
surroundings, keep on appearing, jumping up and sweeping into the long
grass, as crabs and beach-fleas will make their way into the sand. The
Lights get clearer, and, about sunrise, the sea-bottom lifts itself
towards teh surface, a new created Island. Whirls of smells drift
quickly past you, fresh rank smells of the olive-bushes, the brine
scent of burnt grass, a sudden quelling smell of decay.

“Nothing behind me, everything ahead of me, as is ever so on the
road.”  ― Jack Kerouac, On the Road

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August 19 2013 I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days. @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Professor Felipe Fernández-Armesto explains why ‘The precocity of the
Indian Ocean as a zone of long-range navigation and cultural exchange
is one of the glaring facts of history’, made possible by the
reversible escalator’ of the monsoon.’

I have no doubt that the Indian Ocean is set to regain its glory days.
China’s dependence on imported crude oil is increasing and the US’
interestingly is decreasing. I am also certain the Eastern Seaboard of
Africa from Mozambique through Somalia is the last Great Energy Prize
in the c21st. [President Kenyatta probably posed the question to
Vladimir Putin, whether Russia felt it had a role to play in this
Energy Great Game in East Africa]. Therefore, the control of the
Indian Ocean becomes kind of decisive and with control China can be
shut down quite quickly. A Sine qua non of President Barack Obama’s
pivot to Asia is US/NATO Power Projection over the Indian Ocean.

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China’s statistics chief Wang Baoan detained in graft investigation
International Trade


China’s top statistician was detained on Tuesday as part of a graft
investigation, making him the latest senior economic official to fall
from grace as the country battles economic and financial headwinds.

The Communist Party’s anti-graft watchdog made the dramatic
announcement about National Bureau of Statistics chief Wang Baoan just
as state radio aired comments Wang made earlier in the day at a press
conference on the economy.

The sound bites were broadcast on state radio’s main daily news
bulletin. But minutes later the news presenter read out a brief
statement about the investigation into Wang. The apparently hasty
arrangement is rare given the tight editorial and censorship
procedures at top state media.

The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said Wang was under
investigation for “suspected serious violations of discipline”, a
phrase that often refers to corruption. The CCDI’s statement was brief
and did not suggest what the case might involve.

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24 AUG 15 The further problem is that no one believes the data either. This moment when the market stops suspending its disbelief is seriously a dangerous one for policy makers. @TheStarKenya
International Trade


“It’s totally premature to speak of a crisis in China,” a senior IMF
Official told a press conference.

In my experience, when policy makers make these kind of
pronouncements, it is exactly because there is a crisis.

“At the moment none of us can read China,” said the CEO of Glencore. I
can and it is going to get a lot worse, I am afraid.

The further problem is that no one believes the data either. This
moment when the market stops suspending its disbelief is seriously a
dangerous one for policy makers.

read more


Press Release Federal Reserve Bank
International Trade


Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid
pace.  Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job
gains and a lower unemployment rate.  On balance, a range of labor
market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources
continues to diminish.  Household spending is rising moderately;
recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing
power.  Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in
the housing sector remains slow.  Inflation has declined further below
the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in
energy prices.  Market-based measures of inflation compensation have
declined substantially in recent months; survey-based measures of
longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster
maximum employment and price stability.  The Committee expects that,
with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand
at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move
toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.
The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic
activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.  Inflation is
anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee
expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium
term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects
of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate.  The Committee
continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price
stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0
to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains
appropriate.  In determining how long to maintain this target range,
the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward
its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.  This
assessment will take into account a wide range of information,
including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation
pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and
international developments.  Based on its current assessment, the
Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the
stance of monetary policy.  However, if incoming information indicates
faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation
objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the
target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner
than currently anticipated.  Conversely, if progress proves slower
than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur
later than currently anticipated.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting
principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.  This policy, by
keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable
levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it
will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of
maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.  The Committee
currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are
near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some
time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the
Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen,
Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L.
Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome
H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Conclusions

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0881
Dollar Index 98.99
Japan Yen 118.70
Swiss Franc 1.0168
Pound 1.4247
Aussie 0.7045
India Rupee 68.145
South Korea Won 1207.79
Brazil Real 4.1076
Egypt Pound 7.8301
South Africa Rand 16.4352

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10-AUG-2015 “The end is nigh’’ for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja
World Currencies


Oil is now in free fall. The end is nigh for the oil based, rentier
economies. President Obama, first Kenyan-American president of the
United States and oil warfare specialist, has scored the equivalent of
a hat-trick at the World Cup in how he has advanced the US national
interest by using the price of oil as a geopolitical spear. Oil based
economies are going to contract, currencies which have already
collapsed are going to be routed and Greek- style austerity will be
the order of the day. The melt-down is coming.

read more









Sudan opens border with South Sudan for first time since 2011
Africa


Sudan’s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, has ordered the opening of
his country’s border with South Sudan for the first time since the
south’s secession in 2011, state news agency SUNA reported.

“President Omar al-Bashir issued a decree today ordering the opening
of borders with the state of South Sudan and ordered the relevant
authorities to take all measures required to implement this decision
on the ground,” SUNA said on Wednesday.

read more



African economy set to grow 4.4 per cent in 2016 and 2017 – UN [No way]
Africa


Economic growth in Africa will accelerate in 2016 to 4.4 per cent,
from 3.7 per cent in 2015, underpinned by increasing domestic demand,
coupled with an improving regional business environment and increasing
public investment, especially in infrastructure, according to the
United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 report
released today.

East Africa

East Africa maintained the highest growth rate in the region, at 6.2
per cent in 2015, with a projected increase to 6.8 per cent in 2016.
The increase in the growth rate is expected to be mainly driven by the
increased inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI), increased public
spending on infrastructure and growing domestic markets. However, the
political uncertainties and instabilities in South Sudan and Burundi,
and terrorism threats in Kenya and Somalia, have been weighing on the
subregion’s growth.

West Africa

Growth in West Africa decreased to 4.4 per cent in 2015, based on a
considerably lower growth rate in Nigeria following a weaker oil
sector and the uncertainty caused by the elections of March 2015. The
consequences of the Ebola outbreak in the most affected countries,
namely Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, also impacted their growth
potential, although Guinea and Liberia have returned to positive
growth. West Africa’s growth is projected to increase to 5.2 per cent
and 5.3 per cent in 2016 and 2017, respectively, driven mainly by the
improving economic performance of Nigeria, with its emphasis on the
growing non-oil sectors.

Central Africa

Central Africa is forecast to see a rise in its average growth rate
from 3.4 per cent in 2015 to 4.3 per cent in 2016, mainly driven by
investment in energy and infrastructure, strong performance of the
service sector (in Cameroon), an increase in oil production (in Chad
and the Democratic Republic of the Congo), solid performance of the
service sector and robust public investment (in Chad), and investment
in infrastructure and manufacturing (in the Democratic Republic of the
Congo).

Southern Africa

Southern Africa’s growth increased from 2.4 per cent in 2014 to 2.5
per cent in 2015, and a further increase to 3.0 per cent and 3.3 per
cent is forecast for 2016 and 2017, respectively. The subregion’s low
growth performance was driven by the relatively poor growth in its
biggest economy, South Africa.
Weak export demand and low commodity prices for its key raw materials,
as well as electricity shortages, contributed to the subdued
performance, states the report. In Angola, Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth remained strong despite low oil prices, as the government
embarks on investing in strategic non- oil sectors such as
electricity, construction and technology. Mozambique and Zambia
recorded the highest growth in the region, driven by large
infrastructure projects and FDI in the mining sector, respectively.

Weaker global growth and weakness in commodity price are major risks for Africa

The economic outlook for Africa remains subject to a number of risks
and uncertainties. These include a weaker than expected performance of
both the global economy and Africa’s major trading and financing
partners such as China and the euro area.
Further weakness in commodity prices could pose an additional risk for
commodity-exporting countries, while a continued depreciation of
African currencies would create further pressure on monetary stability
through imported inflation.

Conclusions


Nigeria and SA will be at 0% through 2016 which means UN Growth is a
high-ball Call

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Zimbabwe is close to striking a landmark deal with western multilateral institutions FT
Africa


Zimbabwe is close to striking a landmark deal with western
multilateral institutions that would see it clear billions in arrears
of unpaid debt, access new funds for its troubled economy and end more
than 15 years of international isolation.

Talks have intensified between Zimbabwe and its creditors in recent
weeks following Harare’s commitment at a World Bank meeting in Lima
last August to pay back arrears totalling more than $1.8bn.

There is increasing appetite among western governments, particularly
in Europe, to re-engage with Harare. That is partly because of
concerns about what could happen when President Robert Mugabe, 91, who
has ruled since independence in 1980 and who is frail, leaves office
or dies.

“There’s nothing more dangerous than a political transition with an
economic implosion,” said one diplomat.

Patrick Chinamasa, finance minister, said he hoped a deal could be
reached by the end of June. “This is our expectation, but it takes two
to tango,” he said.

Some western officials remained cautious, saying any number of factors
could scupper a complex deal which would require genuine signs of
reform in Zimbabwe, a buy-in from a sceptical US and even the
co-operation of Algeria, which was expected to lend the beleaguered
southern African nation up to $900m to help it repay its arrears.

read more





Nigeria Flirts With Economic Disaster as Naira Controls Stay
Africa


“We need to see a collapse in growth,” he said. “It’s not yet gone
into territory where they have to panic. If growth was to be 1 percent
or even go negative, I think that would definitely be the key thing
that would persuade the central bank to move.”

The economy probably expanded 3 percent last year, the slowest pace
since 1999, and is set to grow 4.1 percent in 2016, according to the
International Monetary Fund.

The naira was trading at about 306 per dollar on the black market on
Tuesday. Naira forwards soared after Emefiele’s speech, suggesting
traders have lowered their expectations of a devaluation. Naira
three-month non-deliverable forwards rose to 229.25 per dollar at 6
a.m. on Wednesday in Lagos, the commercial capital, from 250.5 on
Tuesday.

“The president has indicated that he does not believe that a
devaluation is the appropriate thing to do at this time,” Ike Chioke,
chief executive of Afrinvest West Africa Ltd., which manages about 100
billion naira in investments, said by phone from Lagos. “It appears
the decision on foreign exchange has been moved to a level above the
central bank.”

Conclusions

read more



Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -18.54% 2016
Africa


23,333.34 -498.69 -2.09%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg +0.55% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

2,005.93 +7.74 +0.39%

read more


The Mozambican metical’s turnaround from being one of Africa’s biggest losers last year to the best performer globally so far in 2016 probably won’t last
Africa


The currency has gained 7 percent against the dollar this year,
reversing a 32 percent decline in 2015 that was its biggest drop in
two decades. Still, its poised to weaken this year because of slowing
Chinese growth and the stronger U.S. dollar, Hanns Spangenberg, senior
economist at NKC African Economics, said in an e-mailed response to
questions. “The largest pressure on the metical will likely stem from
Mozambique’s current account deficit,” he said.

Mozambique’s current account gap, the broadest measure of trade in
goods and services, is forecast at 45.3 percent of gross domestic
product this year, the highest in the world after Libya and Tuvalu,
according to International Monetary Fund data.

Conclusions

Will not last.

read more


Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari inspects a military parade mounted by the Kenya Army at the Eldoret International Airport yesterday. PHOTO | CHEBOITE KIGEN | NATION MEDIA GROUP
Kenyan Economy


He and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud joined Kenyans in
inter-denominational prayers held at the Moi Barracks in honour of the
soldiers killed at El-Adde in Somalia on January 15.

Conclusions

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 102.195
Kenyan Economy


Data from Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) shows diaspora remittances rose
to Sh154 billion last year from previous Sh141 billion, cementing the
source as Kenya’s top foreign currency earner.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Remittances-hit-Sh154bn-last-year/-/539552/3051300/-/ykhtkd/-/index.html

Conclusions

I think this number is significantly under-counted and by as much as 50%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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January 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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