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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 07th of March 2016

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Alone by Martin Newman

“We are all alone, born alone, die alone, and—in spite of True Romance
magazines—we shall all someday look back on our lives and see that, in
spite of our company, we were alone the whole way. I do not say
lonely—at least, not all the time—but essentially, and finally, alone.
This is what makes your self-respect so important, and I don't see how
you can respect yourself if you must look in the hearts and minds of
others for your happiness.” ― Hunter S. Thompson

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General de Gaulle famously wrote that “towards the complicated Orient, I flew with simple ideas”.
Law & Politics

They all did. Napoleon was going to "liberate" Cairo, and Bush and
Blair were going to "liberate" Iraq; and Obama, briefly, was going to
"liberate" Syria.

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“The EU is desperate,” said Amanda Paul at the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think-tank.
Law & Politics

“This desperation takes the shape of brushing fundamental rights and
freedoms under the carpet. Not only does the EU’s approach send the
message that refugees can be used as leverage, it is also
strengthening the increasingly authoritarian and intolerant rule of

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The Hard Truth About Malaysia 370
Law & Politics

The unexplained disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 -- which
occurred almost two years ago, presumably killing all 239 people
aboard -- is by any definition unprecedented. And despite some
tantalizing hints, its fate remains utterly mysterious.

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25-AUG-2014 The signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of #MH370
Law & Politics

‘’”We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.’

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Former U.S. first lady Nancy Reagan dies at 94
Law & Politics

"She is once again with the man she loved," her stepson Michael Reagan
wrote on Twitter.

Reagan became one of the most influential first ladies in U.S. history
during her Republican husband's presidency from 1981 to 1989.

Her husband, who affectionately called her "Mommy" while she called
him "Ronnie," died in 2004 after a long struggle with Alzheimer's, the
progressive brain disorder that destroys memory.

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22-FEB-2016 I am writing this piece from the ‘Zebar’ at the Fairmont Mount Kenya Safari Club
Law & Politics

It was William Holden [who was the best man at Ronald Reagan’s wedding
to Nancy Davis] who founded the Mount Kenya Safari Club in Nanyuki in

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North Korea threatens to reduce US and South Korea to 'flames and ash'
Law & Politics

North Korea has threatened to turn Washington and Seoul into “flames
and ashes”, warning of an indiscriminate “pre-emptive nuclear strike
of justice” in reaction to the start of huge US-South Korean military

The North’s powerful National Defence Commission threatened strikes
against targets in the South, US bases in the Pacific and the US
mainland, saying its enemies “are working with bloodshot eyes to
infringe upon the dignity, sovereignty and vital rights” of North

“If we push the buttons to annihilate the enemies even right now, all
bases of provocations will be reduced to seas in flames and ashes in a
moment,” the North’s statement said.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0990
Dollar Index 97.22
Japan Yen 113.71
Swiss Franc 0.9946
Pound 1.4208
Aussie 0.7407
India Rupee 67.053
South Korea Won 1202.30
Brazil Real 3.7587
Egypt Pound 7.8422
South Africa Rand 15.3852

Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.0990 [Its Draghi time]


Sterling 3 month Chart INO 1.4208 [mending for now]


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East Africa's Shebab 'can survive for 30 years'

One was a 200 kilogramme (440 pound) homemade bomb, only the second
time Shebab has used such a large device.

"AMISOM is fighting the wrong war," said Stig Jarle Hansen, a
Norwegian academic and author of a forthcoming book on jihad in
Africa. "AMISOM watches their own back, they are in their garrisons,
they go out patrolling once a week and the rest of the week the Shebab
is on top of things."

By enforcing local support, "Shebab can survive for 30 years," said Hansen.

The message is clear, said Cedric Barnes, Horn of Africa director at
the International Crisis Group research organisation: "Shebab is
saying, 'There is no normality, no security, it's not Somalia Rising,
who are you trying to kid?'"

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Fitch cuts Barclays Africa after parent says to sell down stake

"The downgrades reflect Fitch's view that there is a lower support
propensity from Barclays for Barclays Africa Group and Absa given the
parent's intention to sell its controlling stake in Barclays Africa
Group (which fully owns South African domestic bank, Absa) and
deconsolidate the subsidiary," Fitch Ratings

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Why South Africa's Finance Chief Can't Quit Bloomberg

South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan is caught in a bind: his
boss, President Jacob Zuma, and the nation’s tax commissioner are
undermining his authority, yet he risks sending the economy into free
fall if he resigns.

“The pressure is on him to fight it out,” said Daniel Silke, the
director of Cape Town-based Political Futures Consultancy. “If the
position becomes that untenable or he is intimidated to the point
where he simply wishes to throw in the towel, it’s obviously his
prerogative to do so. He would then witness what could be a disastrous
market reaction.”

“A lot hangs on Gordhan remaining in his post. If he resigns we will
have another bloody day on the forex and bond market.”

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Zuma's Son Took Stake in Tegeta 3 Weeks Before It Bought Optimum

“It looks terrible,” David Lewis, the executive director of South
African transparency group Corruption Watch, said of the timing of the
transaction in a phone interview. “There’s no explanation for this
sort of stuff that’s persuasive. It goes to the capture of the state
by business figures in connection with the political elite, right up
to the president.”

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Old Mutual plots break-up - Sky News report

Without citing sources, it said the group is working on a plan to
divide itself into standalone companies comprising its stake in South
African lender Nedbank, its UK-focused wealth unit, its emerging
markets operation based in South Africa, and its institutional asset
management business.

Sky News said two private equity firms, Cinven and Warburg Pincus, are
already said to have tabled a multi-billion pound joint cash offer for
Old Mutual Wealth.

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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -11.29% 2016

Nigeria's president rejects IMF calls to lift FX curbs, end naira freeze


Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has rejected calls by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) to lift the West African country's
foreign exchange curbs and allow a more flexible rate for its

"No," he told pan-Arab Al Jazeera television in an interviews posted
on the station's website, when asked whether he would consider ending
the fixed naira rate to the dollar and devalue the currency.

AJE News  Buhari: "If it is against our national interest, why
can't we go against the IMF advice?"


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.85% 2016


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -1.21% 2016


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Kenya's Stock Index Posts Best Week in Three Years on Inflows @Business
Kenyan Economy

Kenya’s benchmark stock index posted its best weekly gain in three
years as an improving growth outlook, slowing inflation and a stable
currency lured foreign investors back to East Africa’s biggest

The Nairobi Securities Exchange All Share Index climbed 1.2 percent to
bring its advance this week to 4.1 percent by the close in Nairobi,
the most since the five days ending March 8, 2013, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. Kenya Electricity Generating Co. and Limuru Tea
Co. led gains as 40 of the index’s 62 members rose this week.

Moody’s Investors Service last month affirmed Kenya’s B1 sovereign
rating and maintained its stable outlook, citing “solid” growth and
narrowing fiscal and current account deficits. The economy is forecast
to expand 6 percent this year, while inflation eased to 6.8 percent in
February, from 7.8 percent.

That’s helping boost earnings at Kenyan companies, making them
attractive relative to stocks in Nigeria, where investors fear a
devaluation of the currency, or South Africa, which is in the midst of
political turmoil, according to Nairobi-based Rich Management. Kenya
is the top pick for equity investors wanting exposure to East Africa’s
fast-growing economies, Christine Phillpott, an analyst at
AllianceBernstein LP, said in an interview this week.

“The tide is turning,” Aly Khan Satchu, chief executive at Rich
Management, said by phone. “Kenya will attract more inward flows than
peers like Nigeria, where there are concerns about a potential
devaluation and South Africa with political concerns about President
Jacob Zuma'', he said.

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Barclays Bank Kenya reports FY PAT 2015 +0.158% Full Year Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           12.15
Total Shares Issued:          5431536000.00
Market Capitalization:        65,993,162,400
EPS:             1.55
PE:                 7.838

FY Kenya government securities 45.805987b vs. 51.032847b -10.242%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 145.378553b vs. 125.423371b +15.910%
FY Total assets 240.877020b vs. 225.842434b +6.657%
FY Customers’ deposits 165.082830b vs. 164.778726b +0.185%
FY Loans and advances to customers income 18.839544b vs. 16.707198b +12.763%
FY Government securities income 5.140534b vs. 4.586553b +12.078%
FY Total interest income 25.285748b vs. 22.941044b +10.221%
FY Customer deposit expense [4.275161b] vs. [2.912416b] +46.791%
FY Net interest income 20.410521b vs. 19.603614b +4.116%
FY Other fees and commission income 5.086219b vs. 4.827151b +5.367%
FY Total operating income 29.461760b vs. 28.288488b +4.148%
FY Loan loss provision [1.765778b] vs. [1.404959b] +25.682%
FY Staff costs [9.305169b] vs. [8.100426b] +14.873%
FY Other operating expenses [4.039908b] vs. [4.291941b] -5.872%
FY Total operating expenses [17.388180b] vs. [15.994964b] +8.710%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 12.073580b vs. 12.293524b -1.789%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 8.400582b vs. 8.387346b +0.158%
EPS 1.55 vs. 1.54 +0.649%
Dividend per share 1.00 vs. 1.00
FY Total non performing loans and advances 3.881678b vs. 4.554426b -14.771%
FY Loan loss provision [2.012924b] vs. [2.109563b] -4.581%
FY Net non performing loans 1.868754b vs. 2.444863b -23.564%
Liquidity ratio 34.1% vs. 44.2% -10.1%


Loans and Advances clocked +3.976% at H1 ended the Year at +12.763%
With the BAG shareholding now on the block, its going to be much more
difficult growing and defending the Franchise.

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Money Given to Kenya, Since Stolen, Puts Nike in Spotlight
Kenyan Economy

For more than 20 years, Nike Inc. has been paying the Kenyan national
runners’ association millions of dollars in exchange for the Kenyans
wearing Nike’s signature swoosh, superb advertising in the running

After they received a letter from a Nike lawyer saying there were no
legal grounds to terminate the contract, the Kenyan officials abruptly
changed course. They negotiated a new contract in which Nike agreed to
pay Athletics Kenya an annual sponsorship fee of $1.3 million to $1.5
million — plus $100,000 honorariums each year and a one-time $500,000
“commitment bonus.”

“Whenever I see the words ‘commitment fees,’ ‘commitment bonuses,’
‘access fees,’ ‘access bonuses,’ that for me raises a red flag,” said
Mr. Githongo, a consultant who once headed an anti-corruption unit
within the Kenyan government but quit — and fled the country for
several years — after death threats. “It’s language used to dress up
bribes traditionally.”

In a sworn statement provided to Kenyan investigators, the former
assistant said the $500,000 commitment bonus was “bribe money from
Nike” so that the top officials could pay back the $200,000 from the
scuttled deal with the Chinese company and then make even more by
agreeing to sign up again with Nike.

The former administrative assistant requested that his name not be
revealed, saying it was extremely dangerous to expose high-level
corruption in Kenya — a sentiment shared by others.

“Put that away! You could get killed for that!” exclaimed a member of
Athletics Kenya’s board, his eyes widening when a reporter pulled out
the amended contract from Nike listing the $500,000 commitment bonus
during an interview at a quiet Nairobi restaurant.

Several analysts said the chairman’s asking for the money to be wired
to his personal account and then sending a follow-up email labeled
“Urgent!!” should have been a tipoff to Nike that something was

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Kenya’s middle class drowns Sh568m worth of Scotch whisky
Kenyan Economy

This represented a six per cent growth from the previous year’s Sh534
million, according to the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) whose
members include Diageo, the East African Breweries Limited’s (EABL)
parent firm.

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East African Breweries Ltd. +1.46% 2016
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           277.00
Total Shares Issued:          790774356.00
Market Capitalization:        219,044,496,612
EPS:             11.31
PE:                 24.492

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2016

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