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Thursday 10th of March 2016
 
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Macro Thoughts

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Omen of doom? By One Measure, S&P 500 Volatility Is Highest Since 1938
Africa


The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has moved at least 1 percent in either
direction in 25 of 45 trading sessions so far this year. That rate of
56 percent puts 2016 on track to exceed the 53 percent experienced
during the full year of 2008 and would mark a level not seen since
1938, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

read more


18-JAN-2016 :: A Start To The Year That Goes Back Decades @TheStarKenya
Africa


ONE of the finest books on the markets I have ever read is called
‘’Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’’ by Edwin Lefèvre. It was written
in 1923 and is an account of the life of the securities trader Jesse
Livermore. Lefèvre says many things in this wonderful book.

He, for example, says: “Another lesson I learned early is that there
is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is
as old as the hills. What- ever happens in the stock market today has
happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that. I
suppose I really manage to remember when and how it happened. The fact
that I remember that way is my way of capitalising experience.”

There are so many deep truths in this extraordinary book but the key
phrase is “the tape is your telescope”.

The tape since the start of 2016 has been unprecedented. The venerable
English Times said last week that the “markets suffer[ed] their worst
start to the year since [the] Great Depression”. An economist at RBS
advised clients to “sell everything except high-quality bonds”.

I, like Lefevre, have watched the markets for eternity and I have
never seen anything like this and thats saying something because I can
remember 1994, 1998 and those were big and seismic events.

read more






Yemen's Houthis in Saudi for talks on ending war: sources
Law & Politics


The visit is the first of its kind since the war began in March last
year between Iran-allied Houthi forces, and an Arab military coalition
led by Saudi Arabia, Iran's main regional rival.

The visit began on Monday at the invitation of Saudi authorities,
following a week of secret preparatory talks, said the two senior
officials from the administrative body that runs parts of Yemen
controlled by the Houthis.

Conclusions

Never was going to be a bed of roses and entirely sensible for the KSA
to seek to wrap this Foray up.

read more



Kim Jong Un reacts during a test-fire of an anti-tank guided weapon in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang
Law & Politics


North Korea fires missiles, liquidates Seoul's assets

http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-fires-missiles-liquidates-seouls-assets-045255496.html

North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea on
Thursday, Seoul said, as South Korea and the United States conducted
massive war games.

The North also announced it has scrapped all agreements with the South
on commercial exchange projects and would "liquidate" South Korean
assets left behind in its territory.

The U.S. says it has dispatched three B-2 stealth bombers on a
training mission to the Asia-Pacific region amid growing tensions with
North Korea.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-sending-b-2-bombers-asia-amid-nkorea-195820672.html

read more






Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi takes part in talks with Myanmar’s military leaders in April 2015. Photograph: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters
Law & Politics


He looks at the current president, Thein Sein, who claims to back
democracy, and notes that he is a general who now wears a civilian
suit, and says: “Snake can shed skin. Is still snake.”

Le Monde  Birmanie : le parti d’Aung San Suu Kyi propose son ancien
chauffeur au poste de président

http://www.lemonde.fr/asie-pacifique/article/2016/03/10/birmanie-le-parti-d-aung-san-suu-kyi-propose-son-ancien-chauffeur-au-poste-de-president_4879654_3216.html

While the US military regularly conducts operations targeting
Al-Qaeda-linked fighters in Somalia, Saturday's raid had a higher toll
than all previous US strikes combined.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/africa/2016/03/09/Special-forces-stage-helicopter-raid-on-Somalias-Shebab

read more


Then he did some gloating. “Only one person did well tonight: Donald Trump,” he said.
Law & Politics


Conclusions

I think @Realdonaldtrump is taking the Republican Nomination lock
stock and barrel and is going to prove a very strong adversary to
@HillaryClinton.

read more


Europe’s Faustian pact with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to curtail migration into the EU may carry a devilishly high price tag.
Law & Politics


Turkey’s authoritarian president has proved an unreliable and
problematic partner since the Syrian crisis erupted five years ago.
But the EU’s urgent need for his help currently outweighs its deep
misgivings. As Faust discovered, the reckoning comes later.

Snowden said: “The FBI says Apple has the ‘exclusive technical means’
to unlock the phone. Respectfully, that’s bullshit.”

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/09/edward-snowden-fbi-san-bernardino-iphone-bullshit-nsa-apple

read more


Canada Fears Photo of Prime Minister with Pandas Could Worsen American Refugee Crisis
Law & Politics


Canada, already bracing for the possible inflow of millions of
American refugees in November, might have made matters worse by
releasing an unacceptably adorable photo of its Prime Minister hugging
two baby pandas, Canadians fear.

The photo, taken at the Toronto Zoo and showing Justin Trudeau
cuddling with two panda cubs, was “the last thing this country
needed,” Harland Dorrinson, the executive director of Canadians for
Responsible Immigration, a prominent anti-immigration organization
based in Ottawa, said.

“Canada is already staring down the potential crisis of millions of
Americans pouring over its border later this year,” Dorrinson said.
“Did we really have to announce that we have pandas, too?”

The news photo, which Dorrinson called “an unmitigated disaster,” is
expected to worsen the influx of illegal Americans because, he said,
“in addition to pointing out that Canada has pandas, it is also
reminding people that our Prime Minister is an unusually handsome man,
especially for someone in government.”

read more




Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0976 European Central Bank meeting that is expected to result
in further easing steps
Dollar Index 97.41
Japan Yen 113.66
Swiss Franc 0.9974
Pound 1.4198
Aussie 0.7476
India Rupee 67.165
South Korea Won 1206.87
Brazil Real 3.6797
Egypt Pound 7.8286
South Africa Rand 15.2261

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Treasury two-year notes yielded the most compared with their German counterparts in almost a decade
World Currencies


With German yields at negative 0.54 percent, Treasuries offered a
premium of 143 basis points. The spread widened to 146 basis points
earlier this week, which was the most since 2006.

read more



Euro versus the Dollar 3 Month Chart 1.0976
World Currencies


"This is probably not a consensus view, but the market is almost
pricing in the entire kitchen sink from the ECB, and I think it's
setting itself up for disappointment," said Jennifer Vail, head of
fixed-income research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Portland,
Oregon.

read more


RBNZ's decision to cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent
World Currencies


The New Zealand currency was last down 0.3 percent at $0.6635 after
dipping to a one-week low of $0.6618, well below its overnight high of
$0.6809.

New Zealand 5 day chart INO 0.6653

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_NZDUSD&v=w&t=c&a=2&w=15

read more



Bombay HC to hear #ServiceTaxDepartment plea against #VijayMallya on Friday
Emerging Markets


I run my own world, because I very firmly believe that my destiny, my
future is in my hands and I don't want to blame anybody else for the
path that I take. Vijay Mallya

I live the way I want to live, and I don't comment on the way that
other people live. Vijay Mallya

read more




1999 | Launches Kingfisher Strong, which changes beer consumption nationally, is still the largest selling brand.
Emerging Markets


The buying spree

2005 | Launches Kingfi sher Airlines (KFA). Buys Shaw Wallace, gaining
whisky brands such as Royal Challenge
2006 | Buys Herbertsons, makers of Bagpiper whisky and Romanov vodka.
2007 | Buys F1 team Spyker, renames it Force India. Acquires Air
Deccan. Buys British whisky maker Whyte and Mackay for £595m.
2008 | Buys IPL team Royal Challengers Bangalore for $111.6m. UB City
comes up in Bangalore.

2013 | Diageo acquires 27% stake in USL for Rs 6,500 crore, but KFA
lenders do not get any funds.
2014 | United Bank identifies United Breweries Holdings as wilful defaulter.
2015 | Diageo asks Mallya to step down as chairman of the Indian
liquor firm but he refuses.
2016 | Banks move debt recovery tribunal, which restrains Mallya from
accessing Rs 515 crore he was to receive from Diageo as settlement
after agreeing to quit.

read more



Chinamasa said the public sector wage bill would be slashed from 82 percent of government spending currently to 52 percent of expenditure by 2019.
Africa


The IMF's head of mission to Zimbabwe Domenico Fanizza responded by
saying improving fiscal discipline should be a key government priority
for Zimbabwe.

Fanizza added that Zimbabwe had met all the IMF's quantitative and
structural targets it had set during its visit.

Ups and Downs are physiological in a Floating exchange rate says
Domenico Fanizza @IMFNews #Kenya

http://www.twitpic.com/dfrxhs

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +1.56% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

51,484.46 -763.38 -1.46%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.2261 [Rand is toppy]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Number of Rhinos poached in South Africa Graph

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/mar/09/record-number-of-african-rhinos-killed-in-2015

read more


Egypt Running on Empty
Africa


Nearly three years since the military coup that brought Sisi to power,
not only are the red lines blurred, but the unconsolidated regime
itself is so fuzzily defined that Egyptians doubt it is one coherent
entity. The security forces seem to have slipped the leash of the
executive branch. As one journalist told me in Cairo, “You never know
which security branch it is any more. The only thing that’s clear is
that Sisi does not control them. It’s unpredictable and unsettled.
That’s what makes everything dangerous. You can’t see it coming.”

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg -9.04% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

read more


Growth in Africa’s biggest economy and oil exporter slowed to 2.8 percent last year, the weakest level since 1999 and down from 6.2 percent recorded in 2014.
Africa


Industrial output contracted 2.2 percent last year, compared with
expansion of 6.8 percent in 2014.

The central bank’s measures have effectively pegged the naira at 197
to 199 against the dollar since March last year and hindered the
ability of manufacturers to pay foreign suppliers. They’ve also caused
investors such as Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Ashmore Group Plc
to sell naira bonds and stocks.

Nigeria’s main stock index has fallen 9.8 percent this year, more than
any other bourse in Africa apart from Zimbabwe’s. Forwards prices
suggest the naira will drop 31 percent to 288 in a year, while the
black market rate is around 320 to the dollar.

“Growth for the first quarter of this year could be worse because
nothing has happened,” Cheto said by phone. “Government hasn’t yet
ramped up spending since we don’t have a budget. The performance in
this quarter will drag growth down for the rest of the year. It
confirms that Buhari’s government has been very slow off the line.”

Conclusions


0% GDP in 2016

read more


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.63% 2016
Africa


25,885.31 +130.30 +0.51%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -1.22% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


An elephant returns to Somalia for first time in 20 years
Africa


Nairobi (AFP) - An elephant marched hundreds of kilometres and briefly
crossed into Somalia this month marking the first time the animal has
been seen in the country in 20 years, conservationists said Wednesday.

Morgan, a male bull in his 30s, was fitted with a tracking collar in
December in Kenya's coastal Tana River Delta, but in mid-February
began an unexpected march northwards to Somalia, reaching the border
nearly three weeks later.

His march has excited conservationists who say it shows the elephant
remembered ancient routes after decades of absence due to war.

"He obviously had something in his mind about where he's going," said
Iain Douglas-Hamilton of Save the Elephants, a conservation
organisation that has put tracking collars on hundreds of African
elephants.

Morgan's journey suggests that the Kenya-Somalia border area is
becoming less dangerous and that if security were to return to
southern Somalia so might the exiled elephants.

From Tana River, Morgan trudged 20 kilometres (12 miles) on the first
night and then hid in thick forest the following day, before
continuing his march under cover of darkness. He maintained this
pattern for the next 18 days.

"He's adopted this extreme form of survival strategy to traverse one
of the most dangerous places for elephants in their African range,"
said Douglas-Hamilton.

read more


Uber seeks to lure cabbies in Africa expansion plan
Africa


Uber plans to expand in Tanzania, Uganda and Ghana this year and will
focus on convincing traditional taxi drivers to work for the
ride-hailing service, Alon Lits, Uber's general manager for
sub-Saharan Africa, said.

Traffic-clogged roads, high rates of urban crime and a lack of credit
card are big challenges Uber faces in sub-Saharan Africa, where it
operates in seven cities in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya.

In the Kenyan capital Nairobi, Uber's fastest growing market in
sub-Saharan Africa, an Uber driver was attacked and his car torched
last month after the government rejected calls by Kenya's taxi
association to ban the company.

"Part of our strategy when we launch in new markets will be that
engagement up front with taxi operators," Lits told Reuters in an
interview in Nairobi. "We will be doing a better job of engaging."

That strategy will involve convincing traditional taxi drivers to work
for Uber, showing them they can continue working on their own, but
when they don't have a fare they can also choose to use the Uber
smartphone app to pick up passengers and make extra money.

Lits said Uber, which operates in more than 400 cities worldwide, will
set up East and West Africa "hubs" in Nairobi and Lagos to act as
launchpads for forays into Tanzania, Uganda and Ghana, and would begin
operating in a second city each in Nigeria and Kenya.

"We feel we are at a point now where we have a strong sense for what
it takes to build a successful Uber business in Africa," Lits said.

In Europe and North America, Uber accounts are tied to a customer's
credit card, eliminating the need for cash. But in sub-Saharan Africa,
where only about a third of people own a bank account, low credit
cards usage has presented another obstacle to Uber's growth.

Lits said Uber's experiment in Kenya to let riders pay fares with cash
or via mobile money had boosted growth in Nairobi, where about 100,000
people open the Uber app once a month.

read more


Diamond trust Bank reports FY PAT 2015 +15.615% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  4/-
Closing Price:           209.00
Total Shares Issued:          242110105.00
Market Capitalization:        50,601,011,945
EPS:             24.42
PE:                 8.558

FY Kenya government securities 34.310709b vs. 22.725437b +50.979%
FY Loans and advances to customers (net) 177.544871b vs. 137.654551b +28.979%
FY Customer deposits 194.051857b vs. 160.955609b +20.562%
FY Loans and advances income 21.347025b vs. 17.290845b +23.459%
FY Customers deposits expense [9.674934b] vs. [7.542290b] +28.276%
FY Foreign exchange trading income 1.763096b vs. 1.361732b +29.475%
FY Loan loss provision [2.178175b] vs. [0.871089b] +150.052%
FY Staff costs [3.261135b] vs. [2.863885b] +13.871%
FY Other operating expenses [3.282087b] vs. [2.881836b] +13.889%
FY Profit before tax and exceptional items 9.566635b vs. 8.516725b +12.328%
FY Profit after tax and exceptional items 6.599806b vs. 5.708430b +15.615%
EPS 24.42 vs. 21.92 +11.405%
Dividend per share 2.50 vs. 2.40 +4.167%
Bonus share 1:10
Total non performing loans and advances 4.274897b vs. 1.603182b +166.651%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 21.918487b vs.
17.777150b +23.296%

Commentary

Bonus Issue in the proportion of 1 new ordinary share for every 10
fully paid up Ordinary shares

Conclusions


Very solid Franchise.

read more


Kenya signs $408 million loan with Japan for 140 MW geothermal plant @theafricareport
Kenyan Economy

The plant, know as Olkaria V, will be built by Kenya Electricity
Generating Company (KenGen), which has said it expects to begin
construction in July, with the plant arriving on the grid by the end
of 2018.

read more



.@KenGenKenya share price data and H1 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           7.80
Total Shares Issued:          2198361344.00
Market Capitalization:        17,147,218,483
EPS:             5.24
PE:                 1.489

read more


@KCBGroup share price data and Full Year Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           41.00
Total Shares Issued:          2984227692.00
Market Capitalization:        122,353,335,372
EPS:             6.086
PE:                 6.737

read more


Interview with @JoshuaOigara CEO @KCBGroup Post FY 2015 Results @YouTube
Kenyan Economy


I attended the Launch of the KCB #2Jiajiri Program which is a KCB
Foundation Program.

read more


KCB launches Sh50b project to create jobs Standard Media
Kenyan Economy


KCB Group has launched an ambitious Sh50 billion programme to create
new cadre of youthful entrepreneurs. The programme dubbed ‘2Jiajiri’
is expected to benefit at least 500,000 entrepreneurs in five years,
thereby creating at least 2.5 million direct and indirect jobs. KCB
Group CEO Joshua Oigara said this will provide the beneficiaries with
vocational and enterprise development skills necessary to drive
employment and wealth creation in selected sectors such agricultural
enterprise, automotive engineering, construction, beauty and domestic
services. The lender has set aside Sh10 billion annually in the next
five years towards driving this enterprise development programme.

read more





“This year we are not going to any new market but instead we want to mine existing subsidiaries to contribute at least 30 per cent of assets and hopefully 15 per cent of profits,” Dr. James Mwangi.
Kenyan Economy


Equity disclosed it had set aside Sh10 billion to enter the Ethiopian
market but said it would only do so as a fully licensed lender and not
through a representative office.

Ethiopia’s legal framework locks out foreign-owned banks from its
market with international lenders opting to enter the economy through
representative offices.

“We believe Ethiopia will open next year—we don’t want a
representative or liaison office; we have been given those two but
have declined because we want a full license because that’s the way we
feel we can have the desired impact,” said Mr Mwangi.

Two Kenyan lenders — KCB, which is the country’s largest bank by asset
base, and CFC Stanbic — opened representative offices in Ethiopia last
year.

Mr Mwangi disclosed the lender pumped additional capital in its
regional subsidiaries to boost their performance.

He said the bank will inject Sh2 billion in its Uganda operations and
an additional Sh2.5 billion in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Equity invested an additional Sh2 billion in Tanzania and Sh1.3
billion in Rwanda.

read more


Equity Bank share price data and FY Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           41.50
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        153,665,246,330
EPS:             4.63
PE:                 8.963

read more







 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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