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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Tuesday 15th of March 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Looking forward to #Mindspeak this Saturday at the @SankaraNairobi from 0930 am.

We will be hosting @stpaulsplc The Founder Richard Britten-Long and
Key Officers from the same

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@stpaulsplc is a UK-focused property company invests primarily in UK government & quasi-government occupied properties
Africa


.@stpaulsplc PORTFOLIO STRATEGY  long and short lease AAA-rated
assets, outside of central London
.@stpaulsplc niche opportunity in-between traditional institutional
buyers & private investors
The long lease assets are known as the Platform properties @stpaulsplc
''short lease assets are known and the Opportunistic properties''
@stpaulsplc STRATEGY
@stpaulsplc targets properties let on Full Repairing and Insuring
leases to UK Government
@stpaulsplc properties Full Repairing and Insuring leases to the UK
Gvt or UK Gvt guaranteed covenant
@stpaulsplc also looks at quasi-government tenants such as doctor’s surgeries
Currency Hedging portfolio of properties held by @stpaulsplc provide
an income stream in hard currency
http://stpaulspropertytrustplc.com/investors/ #Mindspeak

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14-MAR-2016 This week, everyone will be keeping an eye on Federal Reserve, chaired by Janet Yellen.
Africa


At the start of the year, the FED was predicting four 0.25% rate hikes
through 2016.

The markets are pricing in two rate hikes in 2016.

read more




"The levy will hurt market sentiment and make investors more panicked, as this shows that existing capital controls are not enough to curb outflows," said Andy Ji
Africa


 "Now is not a good time to roll out a Tobin tax as the market is
already concerned about whether China will be able to increase capital
account convertibility in the coming years, and this is another step
backward to achieve that goal."

Home Thoughts

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Law & Politics


Vladimir Putin’s announcement on Monday that Russia will begin pulling
out of Syria appeared to take the White House by surprise, and revived
concerns that the Russian leader is outmaneuvering Barack Obama.

Just six months after he threw international relations into a tailspin
by launching airstrikes in Syria, Putin on Monday declared that "the
tasks put before the defense ministry have been completed over all,”
adding that he had ordered that "the main part" of Russian forces in
Syria would be withdrawn.

White House officials were left scrambling, with press secretary Josh
Earnest punting on questions during the briefing and others trying to
quickly gather information. “We have seen reports that President Putin
has announced a planned withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria. We
expect to learn more about this in the coming hours,” said one senior
administration official on Monday afternoon.

A speedy Russian exit from Syria would confound President Obama's
talking point that Putin had walked into a "quagmire" in that
country's civil war that he would come to regret. Obama made the case
most recently in an interview with the Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg, in
which Obama said Russia was "overextended" and "bleeding" in Syria.

Putin has repeatedly confounded Obama over the past two years, from
his March 2014 annexation of Crimea to the military campaign in Syria.
U.S. analysts and intelligence officials failed to anticipate either
move, to Obama's chagrin. In a news conference last month, a Bloomberg
reporter asked Obama whether he’d been “outfoxed” by Putin in Syria;
Obama replied, in part, that Russia’s airstrikes were demonstrating
the weakness of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s position.

"Russia seems pretty convinced that it is mission accomplished in
Syria," said a host on the government-funded Russia Today network.

Conclusions

''Finished'' like he started - catching everyone off-guard.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin To Withdraw Majority Of Troops From Syria NPR
Law & Politics


SIEGEL: Vladimir Putin says he's withdrawing the main part of Russia's
troop deployment to Syria. What do you think he means by that?

LANDIS: Well, it's not quite clear, but I - but he's sending, in a
sense, three messages, it seems to me. One, he's establishing that
he's a statesman. He wants peace. He's willing to meet America
halfway. He's also letting the people know at Russia - at home,
mission accomplished. I'm decisive. I'm a leader. I've come. I've done
what I got, and I need to go. I'm not going to get stuck in a
quagmire.

Secondly, it's a shot across Assad's bow, in a sense. Assad's people
were very confident only a week ago that Russia was going to take them
all the way, help them reconquer all of Syria. In a sense, Russia's
saying, we don't have to do that; we're not necessarily going to do
that. Russia is not abandoning Assad in any way. They - Putin has made
much too big an investment in Syria. But he's letting Assad know.

And third, it's a shot across America's bow. America does not want to
work with Russia and Assad. That was one of the things, I think, that
Putin wanted to get done in Syria - is to establish some form of
cooperation. And just yesterday, Putin announced that he wanted to
work with Russia to take Raqqah back, the capital of ISIS. And I don't
think he's gotten an answer from the United States. The United States
does not want to work with him and Assad. So in a sense, it's saying,
you know, if we leave, you're going to be left holding the bag in
Syria.

SIEGEL: What do you make of his statement that Russia's goals have
been achieved that is the mission-accomplished part of this? He went
in to shore up the Syrian government, to shore up Bashar al-Assad. Has
he done so? Is the Assad regime stronger today than it was, say, last
summer?

LANDIS: It's a lot stronger. Russia really turned the balance of
power. Assad was struggling. Now he's no - he's been on the offensive,
and the rebels are in chaos. They've been back on their heels. They're
fighting amongst each other. There's real depression amongst rebel
ranks. So in that sense, the regime is solid.

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05-OCT-2015 :: Putin is a GeoPolitical GrandMaster @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Putin has always been considered a grandmaster of geopolitics, but of
late has been placed under tremendous pressure by the oil warfare
specialist –President Barrack Obama of the US.

The wrestling of the oil price from above $100.00 to below $50.00 a
barrel, was always intended to wither Russia’s power, and send it into
a tailspin.

Let us return to UNGA, where Putin set out his stall and I quote: ‘’I
cannot help asking those who have caused the situation, do you realise
now what you’ve done?’’

With hundreds of thousands of refugees entering Europe, his question
was a sharp one. Within 24 hours of delivering that speech, Russia
instructed that the US should vacate Syrian Air Space. This message
was not delivered to Ashton Carter by his Russian counterpart Shoigu.
It was delivered to the US Embassy in Baghdad. And pretty soon after
that message was delivered, Russia began its intervention on the side
of President Bashar Assad of Syria.

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Assad and Putin
Law & Politics


I wonder how Bashar feels about the ''Exit''

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Don't Trust Putin's Syria Pullback BV
Law & Politics


Putin's official explanation of the supposed withdrawal, which should
start Tuesday, is that he considers "the tasks set for the Defense
Ministry mainly carried out." The Russian military "has allowed Syrian
troops and the patriotic forces of Syria to achieve a radical
breakthrough in the fight against international terrorism and gain
initiative on practically every front."

He's not wrong about the latter: Emboldened and aided by Russian air
strikes against the regime's opponents, President Bashar al-Assad's
forces have been gaining ground since the start of this year. Yet they
haven't captured the all-important city of Aleppo or dealt any
spectacular defeats to any of the bigger insurgent groups, including
the Islamic State. "Radical breakthrough" is an exaggeration.

Putin, however, teased the more likely purpose of his announcement.

"I hope today's decision will be a good signal for all the sides of
the conflict," he said. "I hope this will significantly increase the
trust of all participants in the process."

Russia and the U.S. have a shared interest in uniting Syrian forces in
the fight against Islamic State. Yet they have conflicting visions of
Syria's future. The Russian pullback may have caused the Russian
ruble's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to spike, but Putin is
probably not done with this war yet.

read more


Some Syrian children have known nothing but war, said UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura. Photograph: Abd Doumany/AFP/Getty Images
Law & Politics

#KimJongUn ordena probar misiles balísticos con cabezas nucleares
#CoreadelNorte

https://mobile.twitter.com/javierespinosa2/status/709608003289407488?s=03

Five years after Fukushima, by @dominicnahr who has lived and
breathed this story

pic.twitter.com/WlF6dxr1QB

Trump aims for big primary wins, calls campaign 'a loveliest' [Yeah Right!]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSKCN0WG0YL

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1100
Dollar Index 96.56
Japan Yen 113.47
Swiss Franc 0.9867
Pound 1.4265
Aussie 0.7489
India Rupee 67.225
South Korea Won 1186.24
Brazil Real 3.6604
Egypt Pound 8.9472
South Africa Rand 15.54

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Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 96.572 [I remain bullish and believe it just takes one ''hawkish statement]
World Currencies


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10
major peers, was little changed Tuesday after rising 0.4 percent last
session. While traders are pricing in little chance of a Fed rate
increase on Wednesday, they have boosted bets on a move happening
later in the year. Fed funds futures show the probability of a June
increase is now about 50 percent, having risen from less than 10
percent a month ago

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Prices are up 19 percent since the start of the year, on pace for
the biggest quarterly gain since 1986.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-13/gold-believers-scoff-at-goldman-warning-as-wagers-on-rally-rise

Gold 1 month INO 1227.55 [Bit of a dip yesterday]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d1&t=c&a=50&w=1

Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 38.56 [The Bulls pause for a moment of Thought]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=NYMEX_CL.K16.E

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Former Brazil president Lula 'to become minister' BBC
Emerging Markets


Lula would have some protection from prosecution as a minister

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Ivory Coast gunmen drank beer in bar before attack on resort
Africa


Gunmen from al-Qaida’s North African branch drank beer at a beachside
bar before launching an attack at an Ivory Coast resort town that left
at least 18 people dead.

Sunday’s raid, the details of which are beginning to emerge in witness
and official accounts, was the furthest yet from al-Qaida in the
Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) traditional desert base, a worrying
indication of the militants’ growing reach.

The attack, which is the group’s third attack in West Africa in four
months, raised questions about Ivory Coast’s preparedness for such an
attack, with some asking why such a sensitive target was left so
vulnerable.

A police cordon is seen while Ivorian police prepare to inspect
the area of the hotel Etoile du Sud following the by gunmen from
al-Qaida’s North African branch. Photograph: Luc Gnago/Reuters

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/15/ivory-coast-gunmen-drank-beer-in-bar-before-attack-on-resort

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A security officer walks on the beach after an attack in Grand Bassam, Ivory Coast [Reuters]
Africa


“The issue isn’t that Eskom has magically turned around -- the issue
is that demand has fundamentally collapsed,” said Shaun Nel

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-13/south-african-blackouts-ended-by-economic-slowdown-not-eskom

“The issue isn’t that Eskom has magically turned around -- the issue
is that demand has fundamentally collapsed,” said Shaun Nel, a
spokesman for the Energy Intensive Users Group of South Africa, which
represents 31 of the country’s largest electricity consumers including
Sasol Ltd. and Anglo American Platinum Ltd. “If the commodities
situation remains for next year as well, then we’ll see the likelihood
of power cuts next year significantly diminished as well.”

Power generated by Eskom’s plants fell to the lowest since 2006 last
year, the utility said in a fact sheet on its website. Still, revenue
has increased every year since then as the national energy regulator
allowed the company to raise prices by an average 16 percent annually,
or more than double the mean inflation rate of 6.1 percent over the
10-year period. Despite this, its cash needs have climbed as it needs
237 billion rand ($15.5 billion) in additional finance in the five
years to 2019.

Yields on Eskom’s dollar-denominated bonds due in January 2021 have
climbed more than 300 basis points since the start of 2015 to 8.81
percent.

“We have seen a drop in terms of demand, but it’s not drastic,” Eskom
spokesman Khulu Phasiwe said in an interview. "There may be a drop in
terms of demand in the mining sector," but that is largely compensated
through purchases by neighboring countries, he said.

Eskom has agreed to sell power to Zambia and Zimbabwe, both of which
suffer electricity shortages. They are discretionary deals that can be
downsized if South Africa’s grid becomes constrained.

“Investors and the ratings agencies are observing every development in
South Africa with a keen eye,” Gordhan said in a statement Sunday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/battle-for-south-african-treasury-risks-gordhan-stability-pledge

“Once again the Hawks, and those who instruct them, have no regard for
the economic and social welfare of millions.”


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14-MAR-2016 News that Old Mutual is seeking its own break-up and that it will spin off its 54% controlling stake in Nedbank Group to shareholders, is in essence the second exit after Barclays
Africa


In South Africa, the equity market has pushed into positive territory,
but you will recall I mentioned that the Barclays PLC exit could be
the first in what might become an avalanche of exits. The news that
Old Mutual is seeking its own break-up and that it will spin off its
54 per cent controlling stake in Johannesburg-based Nedbank Group to
shareholders, is in essence the second exit after Barclays.
Multinationals carrying large South African exposures via listings in
Johannesburg are simply no longer prepared to wear the currency risk
or ‘’Zupta’’ price volatility. South African assets are a sell, and
Barclays and Old Mutual are signalling that loud and clear as are
South Africans themselves who seemingly cannot get their own money out
fast enough, according to the latest high Frequency Data.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.51% 2016 [4 month closing high]
Africa


52,471.72 +731.89  +1.41%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.54 [the Rand had gotten overcooked]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Adopts More Flexible Exchange Rate After 13% Devaluation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/egypt-s-central-bank-said-to-devalue-pound-by-almost-13

The regulator earlier sold $198.1 million to local lenders at 8.85
pounds per dollar. That compares with a previous exchange rate of 7.73
pounds. The benchmark EGX 30 Index for stocks surged 4.1 percent, the
biggest intra-day gain since Jan. 24, at 10:45 a.m. in Cairo.

Egypt is grappling with a dollar squeeze that is threatening economic
growth in the most populous Arab country. Foreign-currency reserves
have tumbled by more than 50 percent since 2011, though they have
stabilized at just over $16 billion in the past six months. Policy
makers aim to increase reserves to $25 billion by the end of 2016, the
central bank said in the statement.

Egypt Pound devalued

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2016/03/06/20160314_EGP1.jpg

Conclusions

Look at the Stock Market Response below

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg [+6.7% yesterday and now] -0.03% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,003.85 +440.02 +6.70%

14-MAR-2016  The president is fixated and I expect Nigeria’s GDP to be
at 0% through 2016.

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_038NSX1403.pdf

The Nigeria All Share while still 9.27% lower year to date has cut its
year to date loss by half over the last few weeks. Minutes of the last
MPC meeting confirm that just one member of Nigeria’s central bank
monetary policy committee Adedoyin Salami said the naira should be
devalued and allowed to trade within a band, saying that the fixed
exchange rate would not work alongside a planned rise in government
borrowing.

The naira trades some 40 per cent below the official rate on the black
market versus the dollar and that confirms the current official rate
is a Mickey Mouse price.

Africa’s biggest economy grew by an estimated 2.8 per cent last year.
Salami said his proposal gained no support at the meeting and that
confirms that few are prepared to challenge President Muhammadu
Buhari.

The president is fixated and I expect Nigeria’s GDP to be at 0%
through 2016. It is clear that this is a red-line for Buhari, but what
is clear is that negative spill-over is going to get worse not better.

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.74% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

25,853.58 -134.82 -0.52%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -1.94% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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14-MAR-2016 Here in Nairobi we find ourselves slap-bang in the middle of the earnings season.
Kenyan Economy


The banks have been reporting their full-year earnings and positive
price reactions confirm that investors had become too bearish and we
have seen some shapely rallies develop after these releases. Kenya
Commercial Bank has definitely hurdled Sh40.00. Diamond Trust Bank
closed at a 2016 high and reported that full-year loans and advances
to customers accelerated 28.979% to Sh177.54 billion. Compare that to
Barclays Kenya which reported a 15.91% expansion and clocked Sh145.38
billion. Bamburi Cement posted a big outsize full-year profit after
tax gain of 50.45%. On balance, earnings at the Nairobi Securities
Exchange have outperformed expectations.

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Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.30% 2016
Kenyan Economy


145.26 +0.29 +0.20%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.17% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,953.13 +5.69 +0.14%

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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