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Wednesday 23rd of March 2016 |
Morning Africa |
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If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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This recurrence evinces in what might be the book's most famous passage Africa |
Then we walked down the Avenida Guerrero; they weren’t stepping so lightly any more, and I wasn’t feeling too enthusiastic either. Guerrero, at that time of night, is more like a cemetery than an avenue, not a cemetery in 1974 or in 1968, or 1975, but a cemetery in the year 2666, a forgotten cemetery under the eyelid of a corpse or an unborn child, bathed in the dispassionate fluids of an eye that tried so hard to forget one particular thing that it ended up forgetting everything else.
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BRUSSELS- Terrorists struck a European capital for the second time in four months WSJ Law & Politics |
BRUSSELS—Terrorists struck a European capital for the second time in four months, killing dozens here Tuesday in bombings plotted under the noses of authorities just days after a prime suspect in last year’s carnage in Paris was captured.
Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks at the Brussels airport and on a subway train, starkly demonstrating the ability of the extremist network to direct or inspire deadly assaults in Europe, even as it suffers heavy setbacks from U.S.-led military strikes in its heartlands of Syria and Iraq.
At least 11 people were killed at Brussels Airport and about 100 injured after two men blew themselves up in the check-in area around 8 a.m. local time, officials said. According to a person briefed on the attack, police also exchanged fire with a man firing a Kalashnikov.
The terror attacks were the most deadly in Belgian history.
“It was apocalypse,” said Samir Derrouich, an airport worker who was standing about 30 yards away from one blast, with windows shattering and ceiling tiles crashing to the ground.
Conclusions
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In a World of more than 7b Souls, The Fat Tail [Those prepared to act for their Warholian moment of Fame] is quite a number. Law & Politics |
“They came in a taxi with their suitcases, their bombs were in their bags,” Zaventem’s mayor, Francis Vermeiren http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brussels-attacks-manhunt-for-third-bomber-begins-after-bombings-shake-belgian-capital-a6946916.html
“They came in a taxi with their suitcases, their bombs were in their bags,” Zaventem’s mayor, Francis Vermeiren, told the Agence France Presse news agency. “They put their suitcases on trolleys, the first two bombs exploded.”
He added that a third “put his on a trolley but he must have panicked, it didn’t explode.”
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Food Costs Soar for Africa's Poor Amid Worst Drought in Decades Africa |
The corn that is a food staple for much of southern Africa is now so expensive it has become a luxury many can’t afford, after the worst drought in three decades damaged crops from Ethiopia to South Africa
In Malawi, one of a dozen nations affected by the dry spell, Meleniya Mateyu says she has to forage for wild water-lily roots called nyika from streams and swamps to feed her two orphaned grandchildren. The small amount of grain she gets from an aid agency is barely enough for them to eat during one meal a day.
“We are surviving on nyika,” Mateyu said in an interview at her village in the southern district of Chikwawa, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of the capital, Blantyre. “This year’s hunger is the worst I’ve seen in 10 years.”
The drought -- a symptom of the global El Nino weather pattern -- is shrinking grain production across southern and eastern Africa and increasing the risk of widening hunger for some of the poorest populations in the world. Of the 34 countries that will require food aid this year, 27 are on the continent, United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization data show. And the need is growing even as the rest of the planet enjoys a grain glut and shrinking food costs.
While the UN says the region is having its worst drought in 35 years, it’s been a century since fields were this dry in South Africa, the biggest grower on the continent, and five decades for Ethiopia. That’s compounding the strain on a part of the world where more than 40 percent of the people live at or below the international poverty line of $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank.
Even with global food costs tracked by the UN dropping to a seven-year low, few in southern Africa are benefiting. The logistics of getting supplies from sea ports to landlocked markets in Malawi and Zimbabwe increases the cost. Like many other countries in the region, South Africa’s buying power is eroded by its weakening currency. And the economies of Angola and Zambia have been hit by struggling oil and mining industries.
Food costs may double in Zimbabwe, which will need to import as much as 1 million metric tons of grain, said Steve Wiggins, a research fellow at the U.K.’s Overseas Development Institute. While ocean freight costs are low, the country has to import through South Africa and Mozambique. In a normal production year, local wholesale corn in Zimbabwe would cost about $120 to $150 a ton, but prices will probably be at least $100 higher this year with the added transportation costs, he said.
“The country in the region that is just looking down the barrel is Zimbabwe,” Wiggins said. “The bottom 10 to 20 percent of Zimbabweans will be in terrible straits in terms of sorting out their food during 2016.”
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Unilever Says It's `Insane' If Nigeria Currency Policy Stays Africa |
Nigeria would be misguided to persist with currency policies that have led to a record difference between the naira’s official and black-market rates, according to the local head of Unilever Plc.
“It would be very insane to continue like this for months and months,” Unilever’s Africa President Bruno Witvoet said in an interview on Monday at a conference in Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s commercial capital. Clarity on what the “right rate” is would help businesses “make more sensible decisions,” he said.
Buhari said in a speech on Monday that the hard-currency squeeze is “a temporary phase which we shall try to overcome.”
Conclusions
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ANALYSTS VIEW-Nigeria central bank raises benchmark interest rate to 12 pct Africa |
GAIMIN NONYANE, ECONOMIST AT ECOBANK
"The rate hike should help to reduce excess liquidity in the economy and drive down inflation, which accelerated to double digits in February, above the bank's target."
"The central bank's latest policy move is also positive for the naira, especially in light of a potential rise in US interest rate during the year, alongside growing spread between the parallel and the official exchange rate."
RIDLE MARKUS, AFRICA STRATEGIST AT ABSA CAPITAL
"We were certainly surprised by today's announcement, particularly as the tightening comes so shortly after it was eased. Nonetheless, while we commend the central bank for tightening policy, today's policy adjustments are still not going far enough to address the underlying challenges in the economy."
COBUS DE HART, ANALYST AT NKC AFRICAN ECONOMICS
"This definitely reflects a departure from policy in recent months and we interpret this as a leading indicator for a possible naira devaluation later down the line."
"This may signal that the central bank is starting to lean towards tightening policy in anticipation of higher inflation following a devaluation."
ALY-KHAN SATCHU, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT RICH MANAGEMENT
"Interest rate policy in the current circumstances where the naira is a two-tier market is in many respects moot. A 100 basis points increase shows willingness but inflation in Nigeria evidently could turn exponential to the upside."
"The fundamental dilemna stares us all in the face and that is the false market in the naira."
RAZIA KHAN, HEAD OF AFRICA RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED
"Unexpected tightening measures from the central bank. No moves on FX policy, although the impression this will give is that the tightening was aimed at preventing even more FX pressure on the parallel market.
"Given the nature of the parallel market, we've always argued that even more significant tightening may be needed to affect developments on this market." (Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha; Additional reporting by Marc Jones in London; Editing by Jermey Gaunt)
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Oil pipeline dispute strains east Africa relations $23bn US-backed regional trade corridor under threat @FT Subscriber Kenyan Economy |
A dispute over the route of a proposed oil pipeline from Uganda to the Indian Ocean is straining relations in east Africa and threatening a $23bn US-backed regional trade corridor.
Public disagreements between the main oil companies involved in the $4bn pipeline project — Total of France, Tullow Oil of the UK and China’s Cnooc — over the preferred route are stoking tensions between the governments of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania.
Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya's president, and his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri Museveni said they held “fruitful discussions” in Nairobi on Monday on the pipeline but failed to agree a route. They pledged to meet again in Kampala in two weeks after officials had met to “harmonise” their views.
The pipeline’s route appeared to have been settled in August, as the two leaders signed a deal for a pipeline from Uganda’s fields in the Lake Albert basin via Kenya’s oilfields near Lake Turkana, and on to Lamu on the Kenyan coast.
Kenya said at the time that the pipeline would be the foundation for a $23bn infrastructure corridor connecting the two countries, Ethiopia and South Sudan and possible others. It had signed a memorandum of understanding with the US to help develop it.
But two months later, after intensive lobbying by Total, Uganda announced it was in discussions with Tanzania, to direct the pipeline through its southern neighbour.
This month came an announcement from the Tanzanian and Ugandan governments that the pipeline would go via Tanzania to the port of Tanga, and that Total had raised the $4bn needed to finance it.
After Monday’s talks both options still seemed to be on the table, along with a third route through southern Kenya that passes further from Somalia than the Lamu option.
Total has said it is concerned about the Lamu route because of the potential for attacks on the pipeline by Somalia-based al-Shabaab Islamist militants. Some analysts, however, say terrorism is a regional issue for east Africa and so the risks are similar wherever the pipeline is built.
Uganda, with 1.7bn barrels of recoverable oil reserves and a less developed economy than Kenya, has the most to gain from playing its neighbours off against each other to secure the best possible deal. However, oil industry analysts say it is likely to benefit most from sharing construction and running costs of a pipeline with Kenya.
With only 600m barrels of oil reserves and a much more diversified economy, Kenya has shown less urgency to build the pipeline. But analysts say that if the project does not go via the northern route it is unlikely that the trade corridor — which would benefit Kenya’s coastal region and less developed northern counties — will go ahead.
Tom Dimitroff, managing director of infrastructure at Aeolus Kenya, which is seeking to build a consortium to develop the corridor, said the project would “depend on anchor investments like the pipeline”.
“Without an anchor pipeline investment, it would be challenging to make a new-build port bankable and thus to develop the corridor,” he said, adding that two pipelines are not a viable option.
Tanzania does not have any oil reserves, but its president, John Magufuli, is keen to win the pipeline, partly because his own country has conspicuously failed to develop its own extensive gas reserves. A route through Tanzania would deliver 15,000 jobs during the construction.
Tullow, which is developing oilfields in Uganda and Kenya, is strongly advocating a pipeline through Kenyan. "Tullow is clear that the synergies from a joint pipeline means that the lowest cost option remains a route that links Uganda and Kenya’s oil resources,” a spokesman said. Cnooc has not commented publicly but is thought to be less keen on the Tanzania route.
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Nation Media reports FY Earnings PAT 2015 -9.665% here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 2.50/- Closing Price: 181.00 Total Shares Issued: 188542286.00 Market Capitalization: 34,126,153,766 EPS: 11.8 PE: 15.33
FY Revenue 12.3395b vs. 13.3513b -7.578% FY Profit before tax 2.8232b vs. 3.624b -22.097% FY Profit after tax 2.2227b vs. 2.4605b -9.665% FY Other comprehensive income [151.6m] vs. [50.3m] +201.392% EPS 11.8 vs. 13.1 -9.924% Dividend per share 10.0 vs. 10.0 – Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 3.0633b vs. 3.4517b -11.252%
Nation Commentary Group's Profit after Tax declined ..adverse performance was due to revenue shortfall with the broadcasting Division affected by the disruptions of television signal transmission, following the switch from analogue to digital broadcasting early in the year. Profitability was also adversely effected by foreign exchange losses Turnover declined -7.6% The Group Outlook for 2016 is generally positive, with the commissioning of the new 2b state of the art printing Press and business opportunities presented by the group's leading position in the digital space.
Conclusions
They have actually rebounded strongly H2. I suspect its all priced in now.
NATION MEDIA Group announces dividend payout of Sh10 per share. pic.twitter.com/UMmMMvVvjF
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Lake Turkana Wind Power of Kenya Sees Electricity Supply Delayed Kenyan Economy |
Lake Turkana Wind Power Ltd. of Kenya will face delays in supplying electricity to the grid when Africa’s largest wind-farm goes live in October because transmission lines may not be in place, the company said.
The developers of the 40,000-acre site in Marsabit county, northern Kenya, plan to have the first 90 turbines installed by September and begin generating power the following month, General Manager Phylip Leferink said in a March 17 interview.
“We expect to go live in October this year, generating 50 to 70 megawatts to the grid,” he said at the site of the facility, about 423 kilometers (263 miles) north of the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.
State-owned Kenya Electricity Transmission Co. Ltd. has begun construction of the 428 kilometers of power lines, however “wayleave challenges in Nyahururu and upper Naivasha and security issues in Samburu” are delaying completion, acting Managing Director John Mativo said Monday in an e-mailed response to questions.
Work began on the 70-billion shilling ($689.7 million) wind farm in 2014 after almost a decade of delays. Kenya’s largest single private-sector investment, it’s set to add 310 megawatts to the national grid on completion by July 2017, raising the country’s installed capacity to 6,700 megawatts. It’s located in arid northern Kenya, an area that sees sporadic intercommunal violence.
“We have to be alert, inter-tribal conflict can create security situations,” Leferink said. “There is cattle-rustling in the area that can also create security concerns, but we are vigilant on security.”
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Fidelity sells British fund Duet stake for Sh1.9 billion Kenyan Economy |
Fidelity Commercial Bank has agreed to sell a significant equity stake to British private equity and asset management firm Duet Group for Sh1.9 billion.
The third-tier bank ranked number 28 in the industry said the deal, which is subject to regulatory and other approvals, will see the bank’s capital base grow to over Sh3.8 billion.
The lender’s managing director Sultan Khimji, however, declined to disclose the size of the stake being taken up by Duet saying further details will be announced later.
Conclusions
I suspect they have a meaningful Majority.
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share Index rallied +0.79% to close at 147.24 to close at a 5 month High. The Nairobi All Share is +1.05% in 2016. The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.88% to close at 3,991.95 a 2 week High. This was a muscular session with the Big cap Banks leading the charge. Equity Turnover clocked 502.75m.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom firmed +0.597% to close at 16.85 making that a +2.43% 2 session gain. Safaricom closed the session trading at 17.00 +1.49% at the Finish Line. Safaricom traded 5.344m shares and I have a Price Target of 22.50 for 2016.
Latest Visitor Data confirms Visitor numbers are showing an improving Trend-Line. TPS Serena popped +1.96% better to close at 26.00. Its a very over-sold stock.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
The Big Cap Banking stocks were very firm and showed good upside traction in todays session. I did say severally that the Market's base-line expectations around the Earnings Season was very defensive and that the Earnings Season would prove a Positive Catalyst and this is what we saw today. Barclays Bank surged +4.2% to close at 12.40 a 3 week High. Barclays traded 3.552m shares. Barclays came under strong selling pressure coincident with the divestment announcement. Buyers evidently thinking all the bad news is now baked into the price. Standard Chartered Bank rallied +3.82% to close at a Fresh 2016 High of 217.00. Standard Chartered traded 49,500 shares and has now rallied +11.282% in 2016. CFC Stanbic Bank rallied +5.02% to close at 6 month High of 94.00. CFC Stanbic is +13.93% in 2016. KCB Group was ranked Number 1 in the banking sector in the use of social media according to Africa Brand Index and that is testament to Joshua Oigara's algorithmic and digital leadership. KCB closed unchanged at 41.25 but traded out the session at highs of 42.00 +1.82%. KCB traded 2.887m shares. Equity Group was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and firmed +1.23% to close at 41.00 and marking a two session Gain of +3.144%. Equity traded 3.121m shares worth 128.403m.
Liberty Kenya was a Big Winner rallying +6.10% to close at 16.50 and traded 10,900 shares.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
BAT eased 0.62% off a 2016 high to close at 860.00 and traded 50,000 shares. BAT remains a Bull Outlier in 2016 and is +9.55% Year To Date.
EABL ticked +0.71% firmer to close at 283.00 and traded 33,400 shares.
Trans-Century which is -35.15% in 2016 and closed at a record Low yesterday closed unchanged at 5.35 and traded 41,000 shares. The Last Official Announcement was dated March 15th and spoke to a $20m Equity Investment from Kuramo Capital
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