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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 23rd of March 2016

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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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#Mindspeak St Pauls Property Trust @stpaulsplc @YouTube

#Mindspeak Presentation, @stpaulsplc, Richard Britten-Long, Mark
Sheardown, UK Real Estate let to Her Majesty's Government, @NSEKenya,
Listing, IPO, Sankara Hotel, Sterling

Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Every hundred feet the world changes

“I'll tell you, my friends: it's all in the nerves. The nerves that
tense and relax as you approach the edges of companionship and love.
The razor-sharp edges of companionship and love.” ― Roberto Bolaño,

“In some lost fold of the past, we wanted to be lions and we're no
more than castrated cats” ― Roberto Bolaño


“we interpret life at moments of the deepest desperation.” ― Roberto Bolaño

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This recurrence evinces in what might be the book's most famous passage

Then we walked down the Avenida Guerrero; they weren’t stepping so
lightly any more, and I wasn’t feeling too enthusiastic either.
Guerrero, at that time of night, is more like a cemetery than an
avenue, not a cemetery in 1974 or in 1968, or 1975, but a cemetery in
the year 2666, a forgotten cemetery under the eyelid of a corpse or an
unborn child, bathed in the dispassionate fluids of an eye that tried
so hard to forget one particular thing that it ended up forgetting
everything else.

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Barack Obama tells Cuban people: 'Si se puede - yes we can'
Law & Politics


Havana and Tehran are big Foreign Policy Scalps.

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BRUSSELS- Terrorists struck a European capital for the second time in four months WSJ
Law & Politics

BRUSSELS—Terrorists struck a European capital for the second time in
four months, killing dozens here Tuesday in bombings plotted under the
noses of authorities just days after a prime suspect in last year’s
carnage in Paris was captured.

Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks at the Brussels
airport and on a subway train, starkly demonstrating the ability of
the extremist network to direct or inspire deadly assaults in Europe,
even as it suffers heavy setbacks from U.S.-led military strikes in
its heartlands of Syria and Iraq.

At least 11 people were killed at Brussels Airport and about 100
injured after two men blew themselves up in the check-in area around 8
a.m. local time, officials said. According to a person briefed on the
attack, police also exchanged fire with a man firing a Kalashnikov.

The terror attacks were the most deadly in Belgian history.

“It was apocalypse,” said Samir Derrouich, an airport worker who was
standing about 30 yards away from one blast, with windows shattering
and ceiling tiles crashing to the ground.


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In a World of more than 7b Souls, The Fat Tail [Those prepared to act for their Warholian moment of Fame] is quite a number.
Law & Politics

“They came in a taxi with their suitcases, their bombs were in their
bags,” Zaventem’s mayor, Francis Vermeiren


“They came in a taxi with their suitcases, their bombs were in their
bags,” Zaventem’s mayor, Francis Vermeiren, told the Agence France
Presse news agency. “They put their suitcases on trolleys, the first
two bombs exploded.”

He added that a third “put his on a trolley but he must have panicked,
it didn’t explode.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1206
Dollar Index 95.71
Japan Yen 112.40
Swiss Franc 0.9742
Pound 1.4196
Aussie 0.7613
India Rupee 66.785
South Korea Won 1160.70
Brazil Real 3.5809
Egypt Pound 8.8809
South Africa Rand 15.2421

Dollar Index Chart INO 95.761 [Buy with a 93.50 STOP]


Euro versus the Dollar Chart 1.1207 [1.1450 is Key Resistance]


Dollar Yen Chart INO 112.40 [Target 105.00]


Dollar Canada Chart INO 1.3092 [BUY with a 1.2850 STOP]


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A model of the Boom supersonic jet. Photographer: Benjamin Rasmussen for Bloomberg Businessweek
World Currencies

Boom thinks it can fly you more than twice as fast for the same price
as a 777 business class ticket.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold Chart INO 1237.30 [Bulls need to hurdle 1250.00 and stay
above that Level]


Crude Oil Chart INO 40.99 [could go to $45.00 but feels tired now]


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Police and soldiers patrolled Congo Republic's capital and cellphone networks remained cut on Tuesday

Police and soldiers patrolled Congo Republic's capital and cellphone
networks remained cut on Tuesday as authorities took action to stem
possible unrest before announcing partial results from a presidential

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Food Costs Soar for Africa's Poor Amid Worst Drought in Decades

The corn that is a food staple for much of southern Africa is now so
expensive it has become a luxury many can’t afford, after the worst
drought in three decades damaged crops from Ethiopia to South Africa

In Malawi, one of a dozen nations affected by the dry spell, Meleniya
Mateyu says she has to forage for wild water-lily roots called nyika
from streams and swamps to feed her two orphaned grandchildren. The
small amount of grain she gets from an aid agency is barely enough for
them to eat during one meal a day.

“We are surviving on nyika,” Mateyu said in an interview at her
village in the southern district of Chikwawa, about 50 kilometers (31
miles) south of the capital, Blantyre. “This year’s hunger is the
worst I’ve seen in 10 years.”

The drought -- a symptom of the global El Nino weather pattern -- is
shrinking grain production across southern and eastern Africa and
increasing the risk of widening hunger for some of the poorest
populations in the world. Of the 34 countries that will require food
aid this year, 27 are on the continent, United Nations’ Food &
Agriculture Organization data show. And the need is growing even as
the rest of the planet enjoys a grain glut and shrinking food costs.

While the UN says the region is having its worst drought in 35 years,
it’s been a century since fields were this dry in South Africa, the
biggest grower on the continent, and five decades for Ethiopia. That’s
compounding the strain on a part of the world where more than 40
percent of the people live at or below the international poverty line
of $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank.

Even with global food costs tracked by the UN dropping to a seven-year
low, few in southern Africa are benefiting. The logistics of getting
supplies from sea ports to landlocked markets in Malawi and Zimbabwe
increases the cost. Like many other countries in the region, South
Africa’s buying power is eroded by its weakening currency. And the
economies of Angola and Zambia have been hit by struggling oil and
mining industries.

Food costs may double in Zimbabwe, which will need to import as much
as 1 million metric tons of grain, said Steve Wiggins, a research
fellow at the U.K.’s Overseas Development Institute. While ocean
freight costs are low, the country has to import through South Africa
and Mozambique. In a normal production year, local wholesale corn in
Zimbabwe would cost about $120 to $150 a ton, but prices will probably
be at least $100 higher this year with the added transportation costs,
he said.

“The country in the region that is just looking down the barrel is
Zimbabwe,” Wiggins said. “The bottom 10 to 20 percent of Zimbabweans
will be in terrible straits in terms of sorting out their food during

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South Africa Corn Production

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +5.32% 2016


53,392.86 -431.42 -0.80%

Dollar versus Rand Chart INO 15.24 [Sell the Rand 14.75 STOP]


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.06% 2016 in a Bull Market


7,430.33 -63.79 -0.85%

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Unilever Says It's `Insane' If Nigeria Currency Policy Stays

Nigeria would be misguided to persist with currency policies that have
led to a record difference between the naira’s official and
black-market rates, according to the local head of Unilever Plc.

“It would be very insane to continue like this for months and months,”
Unilever’s Africa President Bruno Witvoet said in an interview on
Monday at a conference in Abidjan, Ivory Coast’s commercial capital.
Clarity on what the “right rate” is would help businesses “make more
sensible decisions,” he said.

Buhari said in a speech on Monday that the hard-currency squeeze is “a
temporary phase which we shall try to overcome.”


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ANALYSTS VIEW-Nigeria central bank raises benchmark interest rate to 12 pct


"The rate hike should help to reduce excess liquidity in the economy
and drive down inflation, which accelerated to double digits in
February, above the bank's target."

"The central bank's latest policy move is also positive for the naira,
especially in light of a potential rise in US interest rate during the
year, alongside growing spread between the parallel and the official
exchange rate."


"We were certainly surprised by today's announcement, particularly as
the tightening comes so shortly after it was eased. Nonetheless, while
we commend the central bank for tightening policy, today's policy
adjustments are still not going far enough to address the underlying
challenges in the economy."


"This definitely reflects a departure from policy in recent months and
we interpret this as a leading indicator for a possible naira
devaluation later down the line."

"This may signal that the central bank is starting to lean towards
tightening policy in anticipation of higher inflation following a


"Interest rate policy in the current circumstances where the naira is
a two-tier market is in many respects moot. A 100 basis points
increase shows willingness but inflation in Nigeria evidently could
turn exponential to the upside."

"The fundamental dilemna stares us all in the face and that is the
false market in the naira."


"Unexpected tightening measures from the central bank. No moves on FX
policy, although the impression this will give is that the tightening
was aimed at preventing even more FX pressure on the parallel market.

"Given the nature of the parallel market, we've always argued that
even more significant tightening may be needed to affect developments
on this market." (Reporting by Chijioke Ohuocha; Additional reporting
by Marc Jones in London; Editing by Jermey Gaunt)

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Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -9.15% 2016

26,020.40 +117.45 +0.45%

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -4.38% 2016


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Oil pipeline dispute strains east Africa relations $23bn US-backed regional trade corridor under threat @FT Subscriber
Kenyan Economy

A dispute over the route of a proposed oil pipeline from Uganda to the
Indian Ocean is straining relations in east Africa and threatening a
$23bn US-backed regional trade corridor.

Public disagreements between the main oil companies involved in the
$4bn pipeline project — Total of France, Tullow Oil of the UK and
China’s Cnooc — over the preferred route are stoking tensions between
the governments of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania.

Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya's president, and his Ugandan counterpart Yoweri
Museveni said they held “fruitful discussions” in Nairobi on Monday on
the pipeline but failed to agree a route. They pledged to meet again
in Kampala in two weeks after officials had met to “harmonise” their

The pipeline’s route appeared to have been settled in August, as the
two leaders signed a deal for a pipeline from Uganda’s fields in the
Lake Albert basin via Kenya’s oilfields near Lake Turkana, and on to
Lamu on the Kenyan coast.

Kenya said at the time that the pipeline would be the foundation for a
$23bn infrastructure corridor connecting the two countries, Ethiopia
and South Sudan and possible others. It had signed a memorandum of
understanding with the US to help develop it.

But two months later, after intensive lobbying by Total, Uganda
announced it was in discussions with Tanzania, to direct the pipeline
through its southern neighbour.

This month came an announcement from the Tanzanian and Ugandan
governments that the pipeline would go via Tanzania to the port of
Tanga, and that Total had raised the $4bn needed to finance it.

After Monday’s talks both options still seemed to be on the table,
along with a third route through southern Kenya that passes further
from Somalia than the Lamu option.

Total has said it is concerned about the Lamu route because of the
potential for attacks on the pipeline by Somalia-based al-Shabaab
Islamist militants. Some analysts, however, say terrorism is a
regional issue for east Africa and so the risks are similar wherever
the pipeline is built.

Uganda, with 1.7bn barrels of recoverable oil reserves and a less
developed economy than Kenya, has the most to gain from playing its
neighbours off against each other to secure the best possible deal.
However, oil industry analysts say it is likely to benefit most from
sharing construction and running costs of a pipeline with Kenya.

With only 600m barrels of oil reserves and a much more diversified
economy, Kenya has shown less urgency to build the pipeline. But
analysts say that if the project does not go via the northern route it
is unlikely that the trade corridor — which would benefit Kenya’s
coastal region and less developed northern counties — will go ahead.

Tom Dimitroff, managing director of infrastructure at Aeolus Kenya,
which is seeking to build a consortium to develop the corridor, said
the project would “depend on anchor investments like the pipeline”.

“Without an anchor pipeline investment, it would be challenging to
make a new-build port bankable and thus to develop the corridor,” he
said, adding that two pipelines are not a viable option.

Tanzania does not have any oil reserves, but its president, John
Magufuli, is keen to win the pipeline, partly because his own country
has conspicuously failed to develop its own extensive gas reserves. A
route through Tanzania would deliver 15,000 jobs during the

Tullow, which is developing oilfields in Uganda and Kenya, is strongly
advocating a pipeline through Kenyan. "Tullow is clear that the
synergies from a joint pipeline means that the lowest cost option
remains a route that links Uganda and Kenya’s oil resources,” a
spokesman said. Cnooc has not commented publicly but is thought to be
less keen on the Tanzania route.

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Nation Media reports FY Earnings PAT 2015 -9.665% here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2.50/-
Closing Price:           181.00
Total Shares Issued:          188542286.00
Market Capitalization:        34,126,153,766
EPS:             11.8
PE:                 15.33

FY Revenue 12.3395b vs. 13.3513b -7.578%
FY Profit before tax 2.8232b vs. 3.624b -22.097%
FY Profit after tax 2.2227b vs. 2.4605b -9.665%
FY Other comprehensive income [151.6m] vs. [50.3m] +201.392%
EPS 11.8 vs. 13.1 -9.924%
Dividend per share 10.0 vs. 10.0 –
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 3.0633b vs. 3.4517b -11.252%

Nation Commentary

Group's Profit after Tax declined ..adverse performance was due to
revenue shortfall with the broadcasting Division affected by the
disruptions of television signal transmission, following the switch
from analogue to digital broadcasting early in the year.
Profitability was also adversely effected by foreign exchange losses
Turnover declined -7.6%
The Group Outlook for 2016 is generally positive, with the
commissioning of the new 2b state of the art printing Press and
business opportunities presented by the group's leading position in
the digital space.


They have actually rebounded strongly H2.
I suspect its all priced in now.

NATION MEDIA Group announces dividend payout of Sh10 per share.


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Lake Turkana Wind Power of Kenya Sees Electricity Supply Delayed
Kenyan Economy

Lake Turkana Wind Power Ltd. of Kenya will face delays in supplying
electricity to the grid when Africa’s largest wind-farm goes live in
October because transmission lines may not be in place, the company

The developers of the 40,000-acre site in Marsabit county, northern
Kenya, plan to have the first 90 turbines installed by September and
begin generating power the following month, General Manager Phylip
Leferink said in a March 17 interview.

“We expect to go live in October this year, generating 50 to 70
megawatts to the grid,” he said at the site of the facility, about 423
kilometers (263 miles) north of the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.

State-owned Kenya Electricity Transmission Co. Ltd. has begun
construction of the 428 kilometers of power lines, however “wayleave
challenges in Nyahururu and upper Naivasha and security issues in
Samburu” are delaying completion, acting Managing Director John Mativo
said Monday in an e-mailed response to questions.

Work began on the 70-billion shilling ($689.7 million) wind farm in
2014 after almost a decade of delays. Kenya’s largest single
private-sector investment, it’s set to add 310 megawatts to the
national grid on completion by July 2017, raising the country’s
installed capacity to 6,700 megawatts. It’s located in arid northern
Kenya, an area that sees sporadic intercommunal violence.

“We have to be alert, inter-tribal conflict can create security
situations,” Leferink said. “There is cattle-rustling in the area that
can also create security concerns, but we are vigilant on security.”

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.705
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.26% 2016


146.08 +1.01 +0.70%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -2.07% 2016


3,957.06 +18.84 +0.48%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


07:51 train commuters stranded at Donholm


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Fidelity sells British fund Duet stake for Sh1.9 billion
Kenyan Economy

Fidelity Commercial Bank has agreed to sell a significant equity stake
to British private equity and asset management firm Duet Group for
Sh1.9 billion.

The third-tier bank ranked number 28 in the industry said the deal,
which is subject to regulatory and other approvals, will see the
bank’s capital base grow to over Sh3.8 billion.

The lender’s managing director Sultan Khimji, however, declined to
disclose the size of the stake being taken up by Duet saying further
details will be announced later.


I suspect they have a meaningful Majority.

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N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share Index rallied +0.79% to close at 147.24 to close
at a 5 month High. The Nairobi All Share is +1.05% in 2016.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index +0.88% to close at 3,991.95 a 2 week High.
This was a muscular session with the Big cap Banks leading the charge.
Equity Turnover clocked 502.75m.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed +0.597% to close at 16.85 making that a +2.43% 2
session gain. Safaricom closed the session trading at 17.00 +1.49% at
the Finish Line. Safaricom traded 5.344m shares and I have a Price
Target of 22.50 for 2016.

Latest Visitor Data confirms Visitor numbers are showing an improving
Trend-Line. TPS Serena popped +1.96% better to close at 26.00. Its a
very over-sold stock.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

The Big Cap Banking stocks were very firm and showed good upside
traction in todays session. I did say severally that the Market's
base-line expectations around the Earnings Season was very defensive
and that the Earnings Season would prove a Positive Catalyst and this
is what we saw today.
Barclays Bank surged +4.2% to close at 12.40 a 3 week High. Barclays
traded 3.552m shares. Barclays came under strong selling pressure
coincident with the divestment announcement. Buyers evidently thinking
all the bad news is now baked into the price.
Standard Chartered Bank rallied +3.82% to close at a Fresh 2016 High
of 217.00. Standard Chartered traded 49,500 shares and has now rallied
+11.282% in 2016.
CFC Stanbic Bank rallied +5.02% to close at 6 month High of 94.00. CFC
Stanbic is +13.93% in 2016.
KCB Group was ranked Number 1 in the banking sector in the use of
social media according to Africa Brand Index and that is testament to
Joshua Oigara's algorithmic and digital leadership. KCB closed
unchanged at 41.25 but traded out the session at highs of 42.00
+1.82%. KCB traded 2.887m shares.
Equity Group was the most actively traded share at the Exchange and
firmed +1.23% to close at 41.00 and marking a two session Gain of
+3.144%. Equity traded 3.121m shares worth 128.403m.

Liberty Kenya was a Big Winner rallying +6.10% to close at 16.50 and
traded 10,900 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

BAT eased 0.62% off a 2016 high to close at 860.00 and traded 50,000
shares. BAT remains a Bull Outlier in 2016 and is +9.55% Year To Date.

EABL ticked +0.71% firmer to close at 283.00 and traded 33,400 shares.

Trans-Century which is -35.15% in 2016 and closed at a record Low
yesterday closed unchanged at 5.35 and traded 41,000 shares. The Last
Official Announcement was dated March 15th and spoke to a $20m Equity
Investment from Kuramo Capital


by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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March 2016

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