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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 24th of March 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.

The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke

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The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over. Hunter S. Thompson
Africa


“The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.
The others-the living-are those who pushed their control as far as
they felt they could handle it, and then pulled back, or slowed down,
or did whatever they had to when it came time to choose between Now
and Later. But the edge is still Out there.”

read more


NASA's Kepler telescope captures "brilliant flash" of supernova shockwave for 1st time ever:
Africa


“In the depth of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay
an invincible summer.” ― Albert Camus

https://libcom.org/files/images/library/albert-camus-rebel.jpg

read more


'Mother died today. Or maybe yesterday: I can't be sure
Africa


“The trigger gave; I felt the smooth underside of the butt; and there,
in that noise, sharp and deafening at the same time, is where it all
started. I shook off the sweat and the sun. I knew that I had
shattered the harmony of the day, the exceptional silence of a beach
where I'd been happy. Then I fired four more times at the motionless
body where the bullets lodged without leaving a trace. And it was like
knocking four quick times on the door of unhappiness.” ― Albert Camus,
L'Étranger

read more




Main Suspect in Brussels Attacks Caught as City on High Alert [then the story was retracted]
Law & Politics


Authorities on Wednesday arrested 24-year-old Najim Laachraoui, one of
three men filmed on closed-circuit TV wheeling baggage carts at the
airport, Belgian media reported. Brothers Khalid and Brahim El
Bakraoui, residents of the Belgian capital, have also been identified
as suicide bombers who blew themselves up at the airport and at a
metro station, according to state broadcaster RTBF, citing an
unidentified police source.

read more


Najim Laachraoui
Law & Politics


“The Byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible
love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition
exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible
exaltation of a brief and destructive action.” ― Albert Camus, The
Stranger

read more


The avoidable war with China Asia Times
Law & Politics


There is a lot of talk lately about the growing likelihood of a war
between China and the United States. A recent op-ed in the Washington
Post spoke darkly of the two countries heading toward a “dangerous
showdown” in Asia. Professor Hugh White at the Australian National
University has even written an article with the title, “It’s Time We
Talked about War with China.”

Conclusions

read more


02-DEC-2013 The Pivot to Asia bares its Fangs
Law & Politics


Given that the trajectory is one of gradual erosion of that decisive
advantage leads me to the view that this pivot to Asia has a logic and
momentum of its own. Therefore, I see the US being increasingly
determined to press its advantage. One might even posit that calming
down the Iranian front, allows the US to better concentrate its
energies on the pivot to Asia.

read more


Australia said on Thursday that plane debris recovered earlier this month from Mozambique was highly likely to have come from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370
Law & Politics


"The analysis has concluded the debris is almost certainly from MH370," he said.

"That such debris has been found on the east coast of Africa is
consistent with drift modeling ... and further affirms our search
efforts in the southern Indian Ocean," Chester said.

read more


25-AUG-2014 The signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of #MH370
Law & Politics


Picking up the signal through the noise of our world in 2014 is no
easy thing. In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic
world. When I plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up
this;

‘’For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new
arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370. Since then
planes have been falling out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off took me back to Don Delillo

‘’”We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.’’

read more


Five Countries, Five Beleaguered Leaders [Use Photo + 2 charts]
Law & Politics


Jacob Zuma, South African President

For the first time in his nine years as head of the ruling party,
Zuma, 73, faces a real threat to his power. Some senior African
National Congress officials are trying to oust him over his ties to a
prominent family accused of using the relationship to further their
business interests and even influence government appointments.
Asked by the opposition to resign in parliament last week, Zuma was as
defiant as ever over whether his friends were offered cabinet
positions. “Don’t ask me,” he said. “Where do I come into it?” Zuma
has outfoxed all opponents so far, and his control over most of the
ANC is still strong. The question is whether his resilience can last.

read more


Credit Suisse CEO Blindsided as Bank Added to Risky Positions @Business Video
International Trade


Credit Suisse Group AG Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam said the
firm’s traders had ramped up holdings of distressed debt and other
illiquid positions without many senior leaders’ knowledge, helping
lead to a first-quarter loss in the markets business.

“This wasn’t clear to me, it wasn’t clear to my CFO and to many people
inside the bank” when the firm laid out a strategy in October, Thiam,
53, said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “There needs
to be a cultural change because it’s completely unacceptable,” adding
that there had been “consequences” for some employees.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1171 The euro eased to $1.1171 EUR=, leaving it well off last
week's top of $1.1342.
Dollar Index 96.19
Japan Yen 112.83
Swiss Franc 0.9762
Pound 1.4100 Sterling GBP also slid to $1.4096 GBP= on concerns the
attacks in Brussels would aid the campaign to leave the European Union
in June's "Brexit" vote.
Aussie 0.7500
India Rupee 66.891
South Korea Won 1166.12
Brazil Real 3.6852
Egypt Pound 8.8824
South Africa Rand 15.4115

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 96.188 [Further Upside Progress expected]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Sterling 3 month Chart 1.41 [On the down move]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

3 months til the vote, two charts show how the FX market is
playing Brexit - betting on high volatility, low pound H/T Jamie
McGeever

pic.twitter.com/IJqNlzIwhz

Euro/Sterling hits 15mth high of 0.7934 on rising #Brexit fears.

pic.twitter.com/kxfTCtbyK8

#UK's 5y default probability jumps as #Brexit risks has risen
after Brussels terror attacks.

pic.twitter.com/vXg7J9Ypt5

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold has dropped 2.9 percent since March 10.

Gold still a hot commodity even as rally starts to fade

pic.twitter.com/XUN7Twzjlh

Gold Chart INO 1218.50 [1250 is the Pivot]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_CL.K16.E&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d1

read more






Global Sugar Shortage Outlook Raised by Green Pool on El Nino
Commodities


A global shortage of sugar will be larger than previously expected in
the next season as El Nino-induced droughts hurt crops in Asia, Green
Pool Commodity Specialists said.

World consumption will exceed production by 4.95 million metric tons
of raw sugar in the 2016-17 season, the Brisbane, Australia-based
researcher said in an e-mailed report on Wednesday. That’s 19 percent
more than its January forecast. The world is heading for a second
straight annual deficit, following half a decade of surpluses.

“El Nino drought has impacted many Asian cane crops and reduced
overall production,” Green Pool said. “The drought impact is
anticipated to carry forward into 2016-17 because it has reduced
planting, reduced plant health and reduced plant care.”

read more


Global Sugar Futures Rally
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more




Djibouti Is Hot How a forgotten sandlot of a country became a hub of international power games.
Africa


The bartender measures a shot of Johnnie Walker Red Label in a steel
jigger and dumps it over ice. A waitress sets the glass on a tray and
steers it through the dining room, where Abouye Wang, the restaurant
owner, commands a booth in the back corner, elbows on the table,
surveying the dinner crowd.

The buzzcuts perched around the high table in the middle of the room
are Americans, he guesses. The two women lost in conversation behind
them are French. He recognizes the men in the adjacent booth as
German. He spots an Italian port executive and a Palestinian diplomat
from the newly opened embassy.

The restaurant, La Chaumière, sits on a corner of the central square
in Djibouti, the capital city in the tiny African country of the same
name, which until recently was of little consequence to anyone who
didn’t live there. La Chaumière’s menu pushes the outer limits of
fusion as Wang caters to his evolving clientele. East African seafood
dishes, Asian stir fries, French stews, American sandwiches, they’re
all here. “If we don’t have what you want,” Wang tells me, “we’ll make
it for you.”

It’s my first night in Djibouti, and I’ve come to La Chaumière because
I was told it would be full of soldiers, speculators, diplomats,
spies, aid workers, contractors—all the outsiders who are turning
Djibouti into an unlikely epicenter of 21st century geopolitics.
Thomas Kelly, the American ambassador here, likes to say that Djibouti
today feels like what Casablanca must have felt like in 1940. “All the
different nationalities elbowing into each other,” he says. “All the
intrigue.” Wang stands in the center of the mix, walking from table to
table, slipping from language to language, witnessing Djibouti’s
transformation at close range. Born to an Ethiopian mother and a
Chinese father, he roamed East Africa with his family before settling
here in 1977, the year Djibouti declared independence from France. He
was 7 years old, an exotic import in a place no one ever visited,
where nothing ever happened.

Back then, Djibouti, a country about the size of New Jersey, had one
paved road and less than a square mile of arable land. The Associated
Press deemed it perfectly devoid of resources, “except for sand, salt,
and 20,000 camels.” The New York Times guessed the new nation might
get swallowed up by one of its neighbors—Ethiopia or Somalia,
maybe—because it was “so impoverished that it cannot stand on its
own.”

Years passed, and those neighbors were too preoccupied with wars,
famine, and civil anarchy to pay much attention to it. Such upheavals,
and almost everything else, skirted Djibouti. Then the new century
rolled around and, seemingly overnight, the country’s sleepiness
became a valuable commodity.

After Sept. 11, the U.S. military rushed to establish its first base
dedicated to counterterrorism, and Djibouti was about the only country
in the neighborhood that wasn’t on fire. Sitting beside the narrow Bab
el-Mandeb strait—a gateway to the Suez Canal at the mouth of the Red
Sea, and one of the most trafficked shipping lanes in the world—it
provided easy access to hot spots in both Africa and the Middle East.

Conclusions


Its all about the Control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

read more




Angolan rebels claim to have killed 30 troops
Africa


Luanda (AFP) - Separatist guerrillas operating in Angola's oil-rich
Cabinda enclave on Wednesday claimed to have shot dead around 30
Angolan government soldiers in March.

Angolan authorities refused to comment on the claims which AFP could
not independently verify.

The Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) has been
fighting for the independence of Cabinda for four decades.

In a statement received by AFP the FLEC said it staged an attack on
March 13 which resulted in "several serious injuries... and more than
10 deaths" among the Angolan army soldiers.

A second ambush on March 16 killed 20 troops in the town of Buco-Zau.

FLEC urged "Western nationals living in Cabinda to temporarily leave."

"We are in a state of war and we face a massive military invasion from
Angola," FLEC said.

read more



Ghana and Ivory Coast want a bigger cut of world chocolate billions
Africa


ABIDJAN, COTE D’IVOIRE. Chocolate is one of the world’s most popular
sweet treats, and in 2014, the global retail sales of chocolate
confectionery were nearly a staggering $100 billion.

Ivory Coast and Ghana are the world’s number one and two producers of
cocoa heans, and together account for nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa
production. But the two earned just over $8 billion in cocoa exports.
In the global value chain for chocolate, the value is skewed heavily
in favour of processors, marketers and distributor: cocoa growers
receive just 6% of the price that consumers pay for chocolate.
African-processed chocolate accounts for 2% of the global chocolate
sales.

But Ghanaian president John Dramani Mahama, and his Ivorian
counterpart Alassane Ouattara, are proposing an “OPEC for chocolate” –
one delegate proposed a catchy name for it – “CHOCPEC”.

The two leaders are also looking to drive a rapid increase in
investment of local processing of chocolate, so that their countries
can reap a bigger chunk of the global chocolate trade.

read more


Cocoa Chart INO
Africa


South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.70% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

52,569.55 -823.31 -1.54%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.406 [keep Selling
preferably nearer 15.00 with a 14.75 STOP]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.99% 2016 [19 month Highs]

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

7,495.47 +65.14 +0.88%

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -10.14% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -3.97% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more



Standard Chartered Kenya reports FY PAT 2015 -39.227% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           209.00
Total Shares Issued:          309159514.00
Market Capitalization:        64,614,338,426
EPS:             19.55
PE:               10.69

FY Kenya government securities 67.416543b vs. 55.139813b +22.265%
FY Loans and advances to customers net 115.125427b vs. 122.749233b -6.211%
FY Total assets 233.965447b vs. 222.495824b +5.155%
FY Customer deposits 172.036056b vs. 154.066931b +11.663%
FY Loans & advanced income 22.877085b vs. 22.120026b +3.423%
FY Total interest income 22.877085b vs. 22.120026b +3.423%
FY Customer deposits expense [3.982472b] vs. [3.030399b] +31.417%
FY Net interest income/[Loss] 18.116032b vs. 17.904721b +1.180%
FY Other fees and commissions income 3.809834b vs. 3.496930b +8.948%
FY Other income 0.767929b vs. 2.281970b -66.348%
FY Total operating income 25.365149b vs. 26.074678b -2.721%
FY Loan loss provision [4.896355b] vs. [1.308416b] +274.220%
FY Staff costs [6.096766b] vs. [5.612984b] +8.619%
FY Other operating expenses [3.596508b] vs. [3.148481b] +14.230%
FY Total other operating expenses [16.205217b] vs. [11.728697b] +38.167%
FY Profit/[Loss] before tax and exceptional items 9.159932b vs.
14.345981b -38.150%
FY Profit/[Loss] after tax and exceptional items 6.342427b vs.
10.436180b -39.227%
EPS 19.97 vs. 33.21 -39.868%
Dividend per share declared 17.00 vs. 17.00 –
Net non performing loans and advances 11.681664b vs. 8.887564b +31.438%
Liquidity ratio 53.74% vs. 46.28% -7.460%
Cash and cash equivalents at 31st December 29.497242b vs. 5.809711b +407.723%
a bonus Issue in the Proportion of 1 new Ordinary Share for every 9
fully paid up Ordinary shares
Final Dividend of 12.50 [+Interim of 4.50 already paid] = 17.00

read more


The profit drop was due to three factors
Kenyan Economy


“The profit drop was due to three factors: an increase in the
non-performing loans portfolio, the financial impact of the
restructuring from the updated group strategy and a one-off net
capital gain in 2014 relating to the disposal of a property,”
StanChart chief executive Lamin Manjang noted in a statement.

The bank’s non-performing loans grew by 37 per cent to Sh14.1 billion,
forcing the lender to set aside an additional Sh3.5 billion as
provisions for the bad debt.
The provisions, which are accounted for as a deductible expense in
profit and loss statement, rose to Sh4.8 billion from Sh1.3 billion in
2014.

The bank’s management is optimistic of bouncing back this year stating
that it had a stronger balance and is in a more liquid position

Conclusions


I think This Set of Earnings is case of putting everything into it
Kitchen sink and all.
I expect a much stronger FY 2016 especially because I think Stan Chart
have seriously benefited from the flight to quality

read more


Imperial Bank managers, fish firm owners charged with Sh29bn theft @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


Imperial Bank’s head of credit, Naeem Shah, chief finance officer
James Kaburu and the directors of W.E. Tilley Limited — the
Nairobi-based fishmonger that confessed to receiving a third of the
looted cash — denied the five counts of theft preferred against them
and were released on police bonds.

The accused were charged with the theft of Sh29 billion from Imperial
Bank or more than 80 per cent of the Sh34 billion that the bank’s
former chief executive, Abdulmalek Janmohamed, is said to have stolen
in 10 years.

Nashir Haiderali, the majority owner of W.E. Tilley (with 99 per cent
stake), and fellow directors, Zulfikar Haiderali Jessa and Nargis Aziz
Jessa were charged with conspiracy to defraud, engaging in an
organised criminal activity, fraudulent accounting, theft and money
laundering. They denied all the charges.

read more


Aly-Khan Satchu @Transcentury reaches settlement with Bond Holders cc @afalli
Kenyan Economy


African Infrastructure Co. Transcentury has reached a settlement with
the majority convertible bondholders, reducing the debt from $80m to
$40m. As previously announced, the Company has secured an equity
injection from Kuramo Capital, bringing the outstanding bond debt to
$20m. The Process of raising the balance is ongoing and bondholders
are comfortable with the structure in place to retire the outstanding
total agreed debt.

read more


TransCentury reaches settlement with bondholders @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


TransCentury has reached a settlement with its bondholders halving its
principal debt to $40 million (Sh4.04 billion) in unclear
circumstances, just two days before the bond’s maturity date.

Following last weeks’ equity injection of $20 million (Sh2.02 billion)
by South Africa’s Kuramo Capital, an investment manager,
TransCentury’s outstanding debt is now down to a similar amount.

The investment firm, which is listed at the Nairobi Securities
Exchange, says it is in the “process of raising the balance” and that
its “bondholders are comfortable with the structure in place to retire
the outstanding total agreed debt.”

The process remains subject to regulatory approvals, including the
approval of the Capital Markets Authority and shareholders where
applicable, TransCentury noted in a statement sent to newsrooms late
Wednesday night.

“This agreement validates the confidence Kuramo and other investors
have in TransCentury and reflects our commitment to maximizing
investor value,” Zeph Mbugua, TransCentury’s chairman, said in the
statement.

The investment firm did not disclose the details of how the initial
debt was condensed by half and which compromises, if any, it had to
agree to in order to close the deal.

However, sources have indicated to the Business Daily that the
bondholders agreed to write-off half of the debt owed to them, in
consideration of the interest earned since the Eurobond was listed in
2011.

They are also said to have softened their stance given the impact that
the weakened shilling has had on the bond over the period, inflating
the original dollar-denominated debt of Sh6 billion to the current
level.

The bondholders however expect to be paid the balance of the debt in
coming months, the source said.

“The majority bondholders are pleased to have reached an amicable and
well-structured settlement with TransCentury Group,” said Paras Shah,
a partner at Coulson Harney, the law firm that facilitated the
transaction.

“Further, the majority bondholders congratulate Kuramo Capital on
their equity capital injection, which was a key factor in reaching
this settlement.”

TransCentury bondholders recently wrote to a select group of the
firm’s founder shareholders, laying out a set of demands that was to
see them get Sh4 billion in cash by March 25 and gain control of the
company by 2017.

read more


Transcentury share price data here -35.15% in 2016
Kenyan Economy


Closing Price:           5.35
Total Shares Issued:          280284476.00
Market Capitalization:        1,499,521,947
EPS:             -8.53
PE:                 -0.627

read more




Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -1.21% 2016
Kenyan Economy


3,991.95 +34.89 +0.88%
 34.89
 0.88%

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today


The Nairobi All Share firmed +0.21% to close at 147.56 a 15 week High.
The Nairobi NSE20 rallied +9.42 points to close at 4001.36 and has
crossed 4,000 for the first time since the first week of January.
Equity Turnover was 413.302m but Supply has run out in a lot of
counters especially the Big Cap Banks.
The Market is on a bit of a Roll here.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom firmed a further +0.29% to close  at 16.90 a 2 week high and
caps a muscular 4 day week which has seen Safaricom rally +2.42% and
on solid volume. Safaricom traded 7.877m shares.

Kenya Airways firmed +1.12% to close at 4.50 and on heavy duty volume
action of 2.351m shares. The Government's Package coupled with a clear
determination and road map to right the ship, we could see the Price
target 5.00.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


Standard Chartered Kenya reported FY 2015 Earnings and remember had
issued a Full Year Profits Warning last Year. Standard Chartered
reported a -6.211% reduction in its FY Loans and Advances, FY Customer
Deposits increased +11.663% to 172.03b [They were surely a Beneficiary
of the Deposit Flight to Quality seen in Q4 2015], FY PAT declined
-39.227%
Full Year Earnings Per Share declined -39.868% to 19.97, The Dividend
Pay Out was held unchanged and the Bank has proposed ''a bonus Issue
in the Proportion of 1 new Ordinary Share for every 9 fully paid up
Ordinary shares.'' The Chief Executive Officer Lamin Manjang said in a
statement

“The profit drop was due to three factors: an increase in the
non-performing loans portfolio, the financial impact of the
restructuring from the updated group strategy and a one-off net
capital gain in 2014 relating to the disposal of a property.”

Standard Chartered had rallied +11.282% in 2016 through this morning
pushed on +3.22% to close at a Fresh 2016 High of 224.00 and in fact
traded shares as high as 227.00 +4.61% at the Finish Line. My Sense is
that Lamin has done a Kitchen sink job on these Full Year Earnings and
that FY 2016 will shine bright and I think the Price Action is
confirming my thinking.

Kenya Commercial Bank rallied +1.81% to close at 42.00 a 9 week High.
KCB traded 433,000 shares and Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Ratio of 6
versus 1 signalling we could pop to 45.00 very quickly.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange reported FY 2015 Earnings before the
Opening Bell and reported a -3.889% slide in FY Operating Income and a
-4.515% slide in FY Profit after Tax. The NSE raised the Dividend Pay
Out +28.947% to 49 cents a share and are issuing a Bonus share for
every three held. The NSE rallied +5.26% to close at 25.00 and was
trading shares at 26.00 +9.47% at the
Finish.  Its going higher in 2016 in my opinion and that Prediction is
based on an increased smorgasbord of Product coupled with strong
Institutional Demand for Exchange Equity. The Bonus and Dividend Hike
will keep it humming along. The NSE is +1.01% and has plenty of upside
scope.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


Trans-Century announced in an Official Release before the market had
opened that ''Transcentury has reached a settlement with the majority
convertible bondholders, reducing the debt from $80m to $40m. As
previously announced, the Company has secured an equity injection from
Kuramo Capital, bringing the outstanding bond debt to $20m. The
Process of raising the balance is ongoing and bondholders are
comfortable with the structure in place to retire the outstanding
total agreed debt.'' Trans-Century closed unchanged at a record
closing Low 0f 5.35 and traded 315,000 shares. Trans-Century remains
-35.15% in 2016.

Mumias Sugar closed unchanged at 1.45 but consider that  ''A global
shortage of sugar will be larger than previously expected in the next
season as El Nino-induced droughts hurt crops in Asia, Green Pool
Commodity Specialists said via Bloomberg.

World consumption will exceed production by 4.95 million metric tons
of raw sugar in the 2016-17 season, the Brisbane, Australia-based
researcher said in an e-mailed report on Wednesday. That’s 19 percent
more than its January forecast. The world is heading for a second
straight annual deficit, following half a decade of surpluses.

This should be a Net Gain for Mumias.

Total Kenya has been creeping higher of late and broke cover to rally
+4.14% to close at 18.85. Total Kenya is +3.28% Year To Date.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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March 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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