|
Tuesday 29th of March 2016 |
Morning Africa |
Register and its all Free.
If you are tracking the NSE Do it via RICHLIVE and use Mozilla Firefox as your Browser. 0930-1500 KENYA TIME Normal Board - The Whole shebang Prompt Board Next day settlement Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts |
read more |
|
How can you 'anthologise' 53 countires, a billion people and over a thousand ethnic groups @FT Africa |
“How can you gather together the stories of a continent that is larger than China, Europe and the United States put together? How can you ‘anthologise’ 53 countries, a billion people and over a thousand ethnic groups?”
“The true journey,” Italo Calvino wrote, “implies a complete change of nutrition, a digesting of the visited country—its fauna and flora and its culture (not only the different culinary practices and condiments but the different implements used to grind the flour or stir the pot).”
|
read more |
|
As the Afghan Taliban flourished, the pakistan Tabiban, occupying the same safe havens in the tribal areas, spun out of Pakistan's control Law & Politics |
In Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein,” the eponymous scientist, saddened by the death of his mother, sets out to create a human replicant in his laboratory. But instead of a human, a giant grotesque emerges, with yellow eyes, over-stretched skin, and a volatile disposition. Victor Frankenstein refers to it as “the Monster” and “the Creature.’’ His creation runs wild, killing Victor’s bride and his best friend, driving its creator to torment and sadness.
The tale of Frankenstein is the proper lens through which to view the attack by Taliban gunmen this week on a school in Pakistan.
Not surprisingly, the double-double game was too clever by half. As the Afghan Taliban flourished, the Pakistani Taliban, occupying the same safe havens in the tribal areas, spun out of Pakistan’s control.
|
read more |
|
Pinochet. Chavez. Trump? After decades of suffering under populist autocrats, Latin Americans have a message for the Gringos: Welcome to our world Law & Politics |
QUITO, ECUADOR—Better than most, the people of Latin America know how to spot a caudillo, or populist strongman—Pinochet. Noriega. Castro. Chávez. Perón. Perhaps that helps explain why Latin Americans, who would typically not care very much about the American presidential primary process, have nevertheless been paying such keen attention this year for the first time in memory. Across the continent, Donald Trump has struck a jangly nerve of recognition among people who see something all too familiar in the possibility of a Presidente Trump—an addition to the long line of democratically elected, populist autocrats who have reigned down here for decades. They see up north the rise of a true, North American caudillo.
“Trump is at war with the entire political establishment, and that is a key part of his appeal,” Levitsky told me. “That was also a key part of the appeal of populists going back to Perón in Argentina, to Alberto Fujimori in Peru, Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Rafael Correa.”
Burgess said another common ingredient of Trump and the typical caudillo is the ability to summon a “multi-class coalition”—mobilizing support that appears to buck traditional positions of left and right, typically cohering in the working class. In that respect, Burgess said, Trump most resembles Juan Domingo Perón, who served as president of Argentina during the 1940s, ’50s and ’70s. “It just echoes of Trump over and over again.”
|
read more |
|
29-MAR-2016 Countries Pay Heavy Price for Less Costly Terror Attack @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
The Bombings at Brussels Airport and the Maelbeek metro attack brought Terror back with full force onto our screens. I extend my deepest condolences to the Kingdom of Belgium, The Minister of Foreign Affairs Didier Reynders [who was a gracious Guest at Mindspeak] and to the Ambassador to Kenya Roxane de Bilderling. As I scanned the news and the names of the Attackers, I looped back to one of my French O Level books, the inestimable Albert Camus' L'Etranger and this quote;
“The Byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible exaltation of a brief and destructive action.”
Surely Najim Laachraoui and Brahim el-Bakraoui are not Byronic Heroes by any stretch of the imagination but in their minds, they are.
In the Financial Markets, there is a concept called ''Tail Risk'' - Tail risk is the risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more than 3 standard deviations from its current price. For example, in early January, It took just 15 minutes on a Monday morning for South Africa’s rand to plummet 9%. More than a year ago, the Swiss franc surged almost 30 percent versus the euro after the central bank abandoned its currency floor against the shared currency. The Examples are numerous. If the markets are a mirror, then they are certainly reflecting a New Normal around Volatility and Tail Risks.
Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said: "As protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad outcomes."
Therefore, my first Question is how big is the Tail Risk in our World of more than 7b. Lets say 0.5% of 7b, thats 35m People! Drop that to 0.05% and you still have 3.5m People. So thats my First Point, the absolute number of Folks who are prepared to cross the Edge is a big absolute number.
''The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over'' Hunter S. Thompson
Terrorists are waging Asymmetric warfare. They cannot stand Toe-to-Toe with a conventional Army because they would be annihilated. However, what they are doing is exploiting an asymettric opening.
How Much do you think the Brussels operation cost the Terrorists? Not very much, I venture.
How much do you think the reaction has cost Belgium? More than a 100x.
If You look at it through the Prism of a Return on Investment, one return Profile looks like a Go-Go Nasdaq stock pre the Crash [if we assume the Pipe-Line of ''Byronic'' Heroes is limitless then we have to appreciate the Terrorist Strategy is like a Free Option] and the State's ROI looks seriously out of whack, its too expensive, it stalls the entire Economy and more of the State's resources are diverted into counter-Terrorism.
My Final Observation is this. Westgate, Garissa meant we were in the cross-Hairs. Today, Terror is striking in the Heart of Europe. Terror is surfing the new Flat World. There has been Diffusion. This is counter-intuitively, positive for Kenya.
|
read more |
|
In the New Emerging Markets, Alpha Comes in the Form of Politics Emerging Markets |
“We are in the part of the cycle when the economies slow down and administrations have to take tough measures,” said Pablo Cisilino, who leads the group and helps manage about $42 billion in developing-nation debt. “Situations like that require being more on the ground, to be there to understand what’s happening.”
The result is a dramatic shift: firms now have analysts learn the names of politicians, prosecutors and supreme court justices, double the number of trips, scan prices at foreign supermarkets, track footprints at stores, and read facial expressions of policy makers. Global fragility, they say, is unveiling institutional weakness, graft, poor governance, and low labor productivity -- and they need to track them all.
“When growth looks great, your fiscal numbers look great, your current accounts look great, you downplay or overlook the politics or other problems of the economy,” said Win Thin, the head of emerging-market strategy at New York-based Brown Brothers Harriman.
Frontier Markets
|
read more |
|
Congo's Kabila consolidates local control in governors' elections Africa |
Allies of Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila won 14 of 19 provincial governorships decided on Saturday, the election commission said, shoring up the president's local support despite calls to step down this year.
The elections, which opposition leaders say were rigged in Kabila's favor, are expected to solidify the president's control over local security forces and resources ahead of a presidential election scheduled for November.
Conclusions
My Legal Friends tell me the Constitution is bullet-proof and the Opposition just need to run down the clock. I am not so sure,
|
read more |
|
Angolan rapper Luaty Beirao jailed for rebellion - BBC News Africa |
A prominent Angolan rapper has been sentenced to five-and-a-half years in prison for planning a rebellion against President Jose Eduardo dos Santos.
Luaty Beirao was sentenced by a court in the capital, Luanda, along with 16 other activists who were given jail terms of between two and eight years.
Amnesty International said they had been sentenced by a "kangaroo court".
The 17 were arrested in June after discussing a book about non-violent resistance at their book club.
Mr dos Santos has ruled oil-rich Angola since 1979.
Conclusions
The Government is set to become more repressive and this is set to place more pressure on the Pressure Cooker.
|
read more |
|
Emefiele's Currency Vow Dashes Hopes for Naira Devaluation Africa |
While the non-deliverable forwards, or NDFs, are still pricing in a devaluation against the dollar of as much as 40 percent over the next 12 months, three-month contracts have moved from predicting depreciation of 25 percent in mid-February to just 10 percent after Emefiele pledged on March 22 to maintain “currency stability”.
With the backing of President Muhammadu Buhari, the central bank has effectively pegged the naira at 197 to 199 per dollar since last year through capital controls and import restrictions. It is trading at about 320 per dollar on the black market. Nigeria’s currency policy, which has deterred foreign investment in Africa’s biggest oil producer and caused a dollar shortage that’s hurting businesses, would be “very insane” if it continues, Unilever Plc’s Africa President Bruno Witvoet said in a March 21 interview.
Three-month NDFs have appreciated 13 percent in the past month to the strongest level since December, and are now trading at 220, compared with a spot rate of 199 naira per dollar. Contracts expiring in 12 months are trading at 279, or 40 percent weaker than the spot rate, suggesting that a depreciation is inevitable in the longer term.
“That’s exactly what the disconnect between the short and long end of the NDF curve highlights,” Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in London, said by phone. “The market doesn’t expect any currency adjustment in the short term,” he said, though “weak oil prices and weak fundamentals eventually will lead to some sort of exchange-rate adjustment.”
Conclusions
|
read more |
|
I & M Holdings Ltd reports FY PAT 2015 +24.597% Earnings here [Price unchanged in 2016] Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: Closing Price: 100.00 Total Shares Issued: 392362035.00 Market Capitalization: 39,236,203,500 EPS: 17.12 PE: 5.8411
Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2015 versus FY through 31st December 2014
FY Loans and advances to customers 127.823778b vs. 112.491329b +13.630% FY Investment securities 39.135807b vs. 38.461486b +1.753% FY Total assets 191.723542b vs. 176.464451b +8.647% FY Deposits from customers 132.980678b vs. 114.201280b +16.444% FY Net interest income 12.647165b vs. 10.404084b +21.560% FY Operating income 17.238941b vs. 14.252432b +20.252% FY Operating expenses [6.412248b] vs. [5.332354b] +20.954% FY Net impairment losses on loans and advances [982.495m] vs. [857.788] +14.538% FY Profit before income tax 10.167661b vs. 8.229894b +23.545% FY Profit for the year 7.144411b vs. 5.734013b +24.597% EPS 17.12 vs. 13.56 +26.254% Dividend per share 3.50 vs. 2.90 +20.690% Cash and cash equivalents at end of the year 4.378074b vs. [4.906044b]
Conclusions
Strong Earnings. Cheap PE Ratio. Has room to the topside
|
read more |
|
Nairobi Securities Exchange reports FY PAT 2015 -4.515% Earnings here [+1.01% 2016] Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: Closing Price: 25.00 Total Shares Issued: 194625000.00 Market Capitalization: 4,865,625,000 EPS: 1.57 PE: 15.924
FY Operating income 616.778m vs. 641.736m -3.889% FY Interest income 101.010m vs. 39.514m +155.631% FY Total income 808.257m vs. 821.901m -1.660% FY Administrative expenses [448.323m] vs. [389.541m] +15.090% FY Profit before taxation 381.494m vs. 441.811m -13.652% FY Profit for the year 305.592m vs. 320.041m -4.515% EPS 1.57 vs. 2.13 -26.291% Total assets 1.918235b vs. 1.685104b +13.835% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 444.035m vs. 640.655m -30.690% Dividends 0.49 vs. 0.38 +28.947% Bonus share 1:3
“This was driven mainly by the three per cent decrease in equity turnover from Sh431 billion in 2014 to Sh419 billion in 2015,” said the NSE in a statement.
Conclusions
Its going higher in 2016 and that Prediction is based on an increased smorgasbord of Product, strong Institutional Demand for Exchange Equity. The Bonus and Dividend Hike will keep it humming along.
|
read more |
|
Standard Group reports FY PAT 2015 -289.603m Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/- Closing Price: 28.00 Total Shares Issued: 81731808.00 Market Capitalization: 2,288,490,624 EPS: -2.95 PE:
FY Earnings through 31st December 2015 versus through December 2014 FY Revenue 4.488399b vs. 4.782649b -6.152% FY Total operating costs [4.694449b] vs. [4.399724b] +6.699% FY Other [cost]/ income [26.113m] vs. 61.574m -142.409% FY Finance costs (net) [163.638m] vs. [118.416m] +38.189% FY [Loss]/ profit before taxation [395.801m] vs. 326.083m -221.380% FY [Loss]/ profit after taxation [289.603m] vs. 220.514m -231.331% EPS [2.95] vs. 2.57 -214.786% Dividend per share – Total assets 4.355614b vs. 4.101749b +6.189% Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [450.402m] vs. [279. 332m] +61.243%
Company Commentary
The Year 2015 came with great opportunities and achievements for the Group. During this period the group embarked on diversification of its products and invested in the expansion of its Radio Maisha network as well as its digital platform Radio Revenue +233% over last Year Digital +50% over last year Revenue decline was mainly the result of digital migration challenges - This saw TV business segment close at 193m [21%] below last year in addition the print segment also declined by 11% The overhead costs increased by 17% to 3.4b from 2.9b Accelerated depreciation of the analogue television equipment Write-Off of outdoor equipment One Off reorganisation costs increased bad debts provision No Dividend
Conclusions
Poor Earnings notwithstanding the Radio and Digital Strength.
|
read more |
|
29-MAR-2016 :: Cautionary Announcement. @ARMCement1 Kenyan Economy |
Proposed Investment in ARM Cement Limited ''now in advanced discussions with an International Institutional Investor in respect of an equity investment of $140m by the Investor of subscribing for ordinary shares in the Company At least $110m of the investment will be utilised to retire existing debt of the company and the balance of the investment will be utilised for the Company's capital expenditure and funding existing and new cement businesses Co and the Investor are currently negotiating the final terms and documentation for the Investment Co estimates that the transaction agreements will be finalised and executed by 15th April 2016 and a shareholders circular detailing the investment will be circulated to shareholders by 30th April 2016 Co. anticipates that the investment will be completed in June 2016
@ARMCement1 share price data here http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjY%3D
|
read more |
|
N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share rowed back 0.49 points off a 15 week High to close at 147.07 The Nairobi NSE20 Index which crossed the 4,000 Level last thursday for the first time since the first week of January eased 5.81 points to close at 3,995.56 Equity Turnover was 432.275m but significant Buy versus Sell Side Supply imbalances are in play signalling firm conditions underfoot.
|
|
N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Sasini Tea and Coffee closed +2.301% at 20.00.
|
|
N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Standard Group reported a Full Year Loss after Tax of -289.603m versus a Profit of 220.514m in FY14. FY Revenue declined -6.152% to clock 4.488399b and the Group has skipped a dividend. ''Revenue decline was mainly the result of digital migration challenges - This saw TV business segment close at 193m [21%] below last year in addition the print segment also declined by 11%.'' Radio Revenue +233% over last Year Digital +50% over last year were stand-Outs. Newspapers are decline the World over with the UK Independent the latest Paper to signal that it is exiting print. Therefore, its worth keeping a very close eye on the Print trajectory because it might be signalling Print is set to revert to the mean trajectory. Standard Group was high-ticked +3.571% to close at 29.00 on light trading of 2,800 shares. Standard Group is +3.571% in 2016.
Nation Media closed unchanged at 176.00 and traded 3,100 shares.
Safaricom eased -0.59% to close at 16.80. My Price Target is 22.50 in 2016
|
|
N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
I & M Holdings Ltd reported Full Year Earnings where FY Loans and Advances posted a double digit Gain of 13.63%, FY Profit After Tax surged +24.597%, FY EPS expanded +26.254% and the FY Dividend was ratcheted +20.69% higher. These were strong Earnings and the Bank trades on a cheap PE Ratio, signalling there is room to the top side for the Price.I & M Holdings rallied +3.00% to close at a 2016 High of 103.00 on the highest volume session of the Year for the stock. 355,100 shares worth 36,577,500 changed hands.
Standard Chartered Bank firmed +0.89% to close at a Fresh 2016 High of 226.00 and traded 8,400 shares. Standard Chartered is +15.89% in 2016 and has further to run. Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 42.00 and traded 713,500 shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a 3 to 1 margin signalling after this Pause for breath KCB is set to move higher.
National Bank eased back -0.68% to close at 14.45 and there are persistent rumours of imminent rotation in the upper reaches of the Hierarchy.
The Nairobi Securities Exchange which reported Earnings last week [and I wrote this after sighting the Earnings, ''Its going higher in 2016 and that Prediction is based on an increased smorgasbord of Product, strong Institutional Demand for Exchange Equity.The Bonus and Dividend Hike will keep it humming along''] followed on the previous session's +5.26% gain and surged 10% [The Daily Limit] to close at 27.50 making that a +15.789% 2 session Gain. The NSE is +11.11% and is targeting 30.00.
|
|
N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
ARM Cement issued a Cautionary Announcement pre-market Opening and stated
''''now in advanced discussions with an International Institutional Investor in respect of an equity investment of $140m by the Investor of subscribing for ordinary shares in the Company …... Co and the Investor are currently negotiating the final terms and documentation for the Investment Co estimates that the transaction agreements will be finalised and executed by 15th April 2016 and a shareholders circular detailing the investment will be circulated to shareholders by 30th April 2016 Co. anticipates that the investment will be completed in June 2016''
ARM Cement eased back -2.43% to close at 30.00 and traded 380,600 shares.
KenolKobil rallied +6.511% to close at a Fresh 2016 High of 11.45 and on heavy duty volume action of 8.068m shares worth 92.7m. KenolKobil has surged +19.27% in 2016 and There are persistent rumours that there has been a stake-building exercise going on last year and this Year.
BAT firmed +0.71% to close at 849.00 and traded 19,800 shares. BAT is +8.15% in 2016 and set fair.
|
|
|
|
|