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Tuesday 29th of March 2016
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Morning Africa |
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0930-1500 KENYA TIME
Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
Expert Board All you need re an Individual stock.
The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site
http://www.rich.co.ke
Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts |
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How can you 'anthologise' 53 countires, a billion people and over a thousand ethnic groups @FT Africa |
“How can you gather together the stories of a continent that is
larger than China, Europe and the United States put together? How can
you ‘anthologise’ 53 countries, a billion people and over a thousand
ethnic groups?”
“The true journey,” Italo Calvino wrote, “implies a complete change of
nutrition, a digesting of the visited country—its fauna and flora and
its culture (not only the different culinary practices and condiments
but the different implements used to grind the flour or stir the
pot).”
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As the Afghan Taliban flourished, the pakistan Tabiban, occupying the same safe havens in the tribal areas, spun out of Pakistan's control Law & Politics |
In Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein,” the eponymous scientist, saddened by
the death of his mother, sets out to create a human replicant in his
laboratory. But instead of a human, a giant grotesque emerges, with
yellow eyes, over-stretched skin, and a volatile disposition. Victor
Frankenstein refers to it as “the Monster” and “the Creature.’’ His
creation runs wild, killing Victor’s bride and his best friend,
driving its creator to torment and sadness.
The tale of Frankenstein is the proper lens through which to view the
attack by Taliban gunmen this week on a school in Pakistan.
Not surprisingly, the double-double game was too clever by half. As
the Afghan Taliban flourished, the Pakistani Taliban, occupying the
same safe havens in the tribal areas, spun out of Pakistan’s control.
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Pinochet. Chavez. Trump? After decades of suffering under populist autocrats, Latin Americans have a message for the Gringos: Welcome to our world Law & Politics |
QUITO, ECUADOR—Better than most, the people of Latin America know how
to spot a caudillo, or populist strongman—Pinochet. Noriega. Castro.
Chávez. Perón. Perhaps that helps explain why Latin Americans, who
would typically not care very much about the American presidential
primary process, have nevertheless been paying such keen attention
this year for the first time in memory. Across the continent, Donald
Trump has struck a jangly nerve of recognition among people who see
something all too familiar in the possibility of a Presidente Trump—an
addition to the long line of democratically elected, populist
autocrats who have reigned down here for decades. They see up north
the rise of a true, North American caudillo.
“Trump is at war with the entire political establishment, and that is
a key part of his appeal,” Levitsky told me. “That was also a key part
of the appeal of populists going back to Perón in Argentina, to
Alberto Fujimori in Peru, Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and Rafael Correa.”
Burgess said another common ingredient of Trump and the typical
caudillo is the ability to summon a “multi-class coalition”—mobilizing
support that appears to buck traditional positions of left and right,
typically cohering in the working class. In that respect, Burgess
said, Trump most resembles Juan Domingo Perón, who served as president
of Argentina during the 1940s, ’50s and ’70s. “It just echoes of Trump
over and over again.”
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29-MAR-2016 Countries Pay Heavy Price for Less Costly Terror Attack @TheStarKenya Law & Politics |
The Bombings at Brussels Airport and the Maelbeek metro attack brought
Terror back with full force onto our screens. I extend my deepest
condolences to the Kingdom of Belgium, The Minister of Foreign Affairs
Didier Reynders [who was a gracious Guest at Mindspeak] and to the
Ambassador to Kenya Roxane de Bilderling. As I scanned the news and
the names of the Attackers, I looped back to one of my French O Level
books, the inestimable Albert Camus' L'Etranger and this quote;
“The Byronic hero, incapable of love, or capable only of an impossible
love, suffers endlessly. He is solitary, languid, his condition
exhausts him. If he wants to feel alive, it must be in the terrible
exaltation of a brief and destructive action.”
Surely Najim Laachraoui and Brahim el-Bakraoui are not Byronic Heroes
by any stretch of the imagination but in their minds, they are.
In the Financial Markets, there is a concept called ''Tail Risk'' -
Tail risk is the risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more
than 3 standard deviations from its current price. For example, in
early January, It took just 15 minutes on a Monday morning for South
Africa’s rand to plummet 9%. More than a year ago, the Swiss franc
surged almost 30 percent versus the euro after the central bank
abandoned its currency floor against the shared currency. The Examples
are numerous. If the markets are a mirror, then they are certainly
reflecting a New Normal around Volatility and Tail Risks.
Ben Bernanke was asked why people hold gold and he said: "As
protection against what we call tail risks: really, really bad
outcomes."
Therefore, my first Question is how big is the Tail Risk in our World
of more than 7b. Lets say 0.5% of 7b, thats 35m People! Drop that to
0.05% and you still have 3.5m People. So thats my First Point, the
absolute number of Folks who are prepared to cross the Edge is a big
absolute number.
''The Edge... there is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over''
Hunter S. Thompson
Terrorists are waging Asymmetric warfare. They cannot stand Toe-to-Toe
with a conventional Army because they would be annihilated. However,
what they are doing is exploiting an asymettric opening.
How Much do you think the Brussels operation cost the Terrorists? Not
very much, I venture.
How much do you think the reaction has cost Belgium? More than a 100x.
If You look at it through the Prism of a Return on Investment, one
return Profile looks like a Go-Go Nasdaq stock pre the Crash [if we
assume the Pipe-Line of ''Byronic'' Heroes is limitless then we have
to appreciate the Terrorist Strategy is like a Free Option] and the
State's ROI looks seriously out of whack, its too expensive, it stalls
the entire Economy and more of the State's resources are diverted into
counter-Terrorism.
My Final Observation is this. Westgate, Garissa meant we were in the
cross-Hairs. Today, Terror is striking in the Heart of Europe. Terror
is surfing the new Flat World. There has been Diffusion. This is
counter-intuitively, positive for Kenya.
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In the New Emerging Markets, Alpha Comes in the Form of Politics Emerging Markets |
“We are in the part of the cycle when the economies slow down and
administrations have to take tough measures,” said Pablo Cisilino, who
leads the group and helps manage about $42 billion in
developing-nation debt. “Situations like that require being more on
the ground, to be there to understand what’s happening.”
The result is a dramatic shift: firms now have analysts learn the
names of politicians, prosecutors and supreme court justices, double
the number of trips, scan prices at foreign supermarkets, track
footprints at stores, and read facial expressions of policy makers.
Global fragility, they say, is unveiling institutional weakness,
graft, poor governance, and low labor productivity -- and they need to
track them all.
“When growth looks great, your fiscal numbers look great, your current
accounts look great, you downplay or overlook the politics or other
problems of the economy,” said Win Thin, the head of emerging-market
strategy at New York-based Brown Brothers Harriman.
Frontier Markets
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Congo's Kabila consolidates local control in governors' elections Africa |
Allies of Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila won 14
of 19 provincial governorships decided on Saturday, the election
commission said, shoring up the president's local support despite
calls to step down this year.
The elections, which opposition leaders say were rigged in Kabila's
favor, are expected to solidify the president's control over local
security forces and resources ahead of a presidential election
scheduled for November.
Conclusions
My Legal Friends tell me the Constitution is bullet-proof and the
Opposition just need to run down the clock. I am not so sure,
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Angolan rapper Luaty Beirao jailed for rebellion - BBC News Africa |
A prominent Angolan rapper has been sentenced to five-and-a-half years
in prison for planning a rebellion against President Jose Eduardo dos
Santos.
Luaty Beirao was sentenced by a court in the capital, Luanda, along
with 16 other activists who were given jail terms of between two and
eight years.
Amnesty International said they had been sentenced by a "kangaroo court".
The 17 were arrested in June after discussing a book about non-violent
resistance at their book club.
Mr dos Santos has ruled oil-rich Angola since 1979.
Conclusions
The Government is set to become more repressive and this is set to
place more pressure on the Pressure Cooker.
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Emefiele's Currency Vow Dashes Hopes for Naira Devaluation Africa |
While the non-deliverable forwards, or NDFs, are still pricing in a
devaluation against the dollar of as much as 40 percent over the next
12 months, three-month contracts have moved from predicting
depreciation of 25 percent in mid-February to just 10 percent after
Emefiele pledged on March 22 to maintain “currency stability”.
With the backing of President Muhammadu Buhari, the central bank has
effectively pegged the naira at 197 to 199 per dollar since last year
through capital controls and import restrictions. It is trading at
about 320 per dollar on the black market. Nigeria’s currency policy,
which has deterred foreign investment in Africa’s biggest oil producer
and caused a dollar shortage that’s hurting businesses, would be “very
insane” if it continues, Unilever Plc’s Africa President Bruno Witvoet
said in a March 21 interview.
Three-month NDFs have appreciated 13 percent in the past month to the
strongest level since December, and are now trading at 220, compared
with a spot rate of 199 naira per dollar. Contracts expiring in 12
months are trading at 279, or 40 percent weaker than the spot rate,
suggesting that a depreciation is inevitable in the longer term.
“That’s exactly what the disconnect between the short and long end of
the NDF curve highlights,” Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at
Standard Chartered Bank Plc in London, said by phone. “The market
doesn’t expect any currency adjustment in the short term,” he said,
though “weak oil prices and weak fundamentals eventually will lead to
some sort of exchange-rate adjustment.”
Conclusions
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I & M Holdings Ltd reports FY PAT 2015 +24.597% Earnings here [Price unchanged in 2016] Kenyan Economy |
Par Value:
Closing Price: 100.00
Total Shares Issued: 392362035.00
Market Capitalization: 39,236,203,500
EPS: 17.12
PE: 5.8411
Full Year Earnings through 31st December 2015 versus FY through 31st
December 2014
FY Loans and advances to customers 127.823778b vs. 112.491329b +13.630%
FY Investment securities 39.135807b vs. 38.461486b +1.753%
FY Total assets 191.723542b vs. 176.464451b +8.647%
FY Deposits from customers 132.980678b vs. 114.201280b +16.444%
FY Net interest income 12.647165b vs. 10.404084b +21.560%
FY Operating income 17.238941b vs. 14.252432b +20.252%
FY Operating expenses [6.412248b] vs. [5.332354b] +20.954%
FY Net impairment losses on loans and advances [982.495m] vs.
[857.788] +14.538%
FY Profit before income tax 10.167661b vs. 8.229894b +23.545%
FY Profit for the year 7.144411b vs. 5.734013b +24.597%
EPS 17.12 vs. 13.56 +26.254%
Dividend per share 3.50 vs. 2.90 +20.690%
Cash and cash equivalents at end of the year 4.378074b vs. [4.906044b]
Conclusions
Strong Earnings. Cheap PE Ratio. Has room to the topside
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Nairobi Securities Exchange reports FY PAT 2015 -4.515% Earnings here [+1.01% 2016] Kenyan Economy |
Par Value:
Closing Price: 25.00
Total Shares Issued: 194625000.00
Market Capitalization: 4,865,625,000
EPS: 1.57
PE: 15.924
FY Operating income 616.778m vs. 641.736m -3.889%
FY Interest income 101.010m vs. 39.514m +155.631%
FY Total income 808.257m vs. 821.901m -1.660%
FY Administrative expenses [448.323m] vs. [389.541m] +15.090%
FY Profit before taxation 381.494m vs. 441.811m -13.652%
FY Profit for the year 305.592m vs. 320.041m -4.515%
EPS 1.57 vs. 2.13 -26.291%
Total assets 1.918235b vs. 1.685104b +13.835%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 444.035m vs. 640.655m -30.690%
Dividends 0.49 vs. 0.38 +28.947%
Bonus share 1:3
“This was driven mainly by the three per cent decrease in equity
turnover from Sh431 billion in 2014 to Sh419 billion in 2015,” said
the NSE in a statement.
Conclusions
Its going higher in 2016 and that Prediction is based on an increased
smorgasbord of Product, strong Institutional Demand for Exchange
Equity.
The Bonus and Dividend Hike will keep it humming along.
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Standard Group reports FY PAT 2015 -289.603m Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 5/-
Closing Price: 28.00
Total Shares Issued: 81731808.00
Market Capitalization: 2,288,490,624
EPS: -2.95
PE:
FY Earnings through 31st December 2015 versus through December 2014
FY Revenue 4.488399b vs. 4.782649b -6.152%
FY Total operating costs [4.694449b] vs. [4.399724b] +6.699%
FY Other [cost]/ income [26.113m] vs. 61.574m -142.409%
FY Finance costs (net) [163.638m] vs. [118.416m] +38.189%
FY [Loss]/ profit before taxation [395.801m] vs. 326.083m -221.380%
FY [Loss]/ profit after taxation [289.603m] vs. 220.514m -231.331%
EPS [2.95] vs. 2.57 -214.786%
Dividend per share –
Total assets 4.355614b vs. 4.101749b +6.189%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [450.402m] vs. [279.
332m] +61.243%
Company Commentary
The Year 2015 came with great opportunities and achievements for the Group.
During this period the group embarked on diversification of its
products and invested in the expansion of its Radio Maisha network as
well as its digital platform
Radio Revenue +233% over last Year
Digital +50% over last year
Revenue decline was mainly the result of digital migration challenges
- This saw TV business segment close at 193m [21%] below last year
in addition the print segment also declined by 11%
The overhead costs increased by 17% to 3.4b from 2.9b
Accelerated depreciation of the analogue television equipment
Write-Off of outdoor equipment
One Off reorganisation costs
increased bad debts provision
No Dividend
Conclusions
Poor Earnings notwithstanding the Radio and Digital Strength.
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29-MAR-2016 :: Cautionary Announcement. @ARMCement1 Kenyan Economy |
Proposed Investment in ARM Cement Limited
''now in advanced discussions with an International Institutional
Investor in respect of an equity investment of $140m by the Investor
of subscribing for ordinary shares in the Company
At least $110m of the investment will be utilised to retire existing
debt of the company and the balance of the investment will be utilised
for the Company's capital expenditure and funding existing and new
cement businesses
Co and the Investor are currently negotiating the final terms and
documentation for the Investment
Co estimates that the transaction agreements will be finalised and
executed by 15th April 2016
and a shareholders circular detailing the investment will be
circulated to shareholders by 30th April 2016
Co. anticipates that the investment will be completed in June 2016
@ARMCement1 share price data here
http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjY%3D
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share rowed back 0.49 points off a 15 week High to
close at 147.07
The Nairobi NSE20 Index which crossed the 4,000 Level last thursday
for the first time since the first week of January eased 5.81 points
to close at 3,995.56
Equity Turnover was 432.275m but significant Buy versus Sell Side
Supply imbalances are in play signalling firm conditions underfoot.
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N.S.E Equities - Agricultural |
Sasini Tea and Coffee closed +2.301% at 20.00.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Standard Group reported a Full Year Loss after Tax of -289.603m versus
a Profit of 220.514m in FY14. FY Revenue declined -6.152% to clock
4.488399b and the Group has skipped a dividend. ''Revenue decline was
mainly the result of digital migration challenges - This saw TV
business segment close at 193m [21%] below last year in addition the
print segment also declined by 11%.''
Radio Revenue +233% over last Year Digital +50% over last year were
stand-Outs. Newspapers are decline the World over with the UK
Independent the latest Paper to signal that it is exiting print.
Therefore, its worth keeping a very close eye on the Print trajectory
because it might be signalling Print is set to revert to the mean
trajectory. Standard Group was high-ticked +3.571% to close at 29.00
on light trading of 2,800 shares. Standard Group is +3.571% in 2016.
Nation Media closed unchanged at 176.00 and traded 3,100 shares.
Safaricom eased -0.59% to close at 16.80. My Price Target is 22.50 in 2016
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
I & M Holdings Ltd reported Full Year Earnings where FY Loans and
Advances posted a double digit Gain of 13.63%, FY Profit After Tax
surged +24.597%, FY EPS expanded +26.254% and the FY Dividend was
ratcheted +20.69% higher. These were strong Earnings and the Bank
trades on a cheap PE Ratio, signalling there is room to the top side
for the Price.I & M Holdings rallied +3.00% to close at a 2016 High of
103.00 on the highest volume session of the Year for the stock.
355,100 shares worth 36,577,500 changed hands.
Standard Chartered Bank firmed +0.89% to close at a Fresh 2016 High of
226.00 and traded 8,400 shares. Standard Chartered is +15.89% in 2016
and has further to run.
Kenya Commercial Bank closed unchanged at 42.00 and traded 713,500
shares. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a 3 to 1 margin signalling after
this Pause for breath KCB is set to move higher.
National Bank eased back -0.68% to close at 14.45 and there are
persistent rumours of imminent rotation in the upper reaches of the
Hierarchy.
The Nairobi Securities Exchange which reported Earnings last week [and
I wrote this after sighting the Earnings, ''Its going higher in 2016
and that Prediction is based on an increased smorgasbord of Product,
strong Institutional Demand for Exchange Equity.The Bonus and Dividend
Hike will keep it humming along''] followed on the previous session's
+5.26% gain and surged 10% [The Daily Limit] to close at 27.50 making
that a +15.789% 2 session Gain. The NSE is +11.11% and is targeting
30.00.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
ARM Cement issued a Cautionary Announcement pre-market Opening and stated
''''now in advanced discussions with an International Institutional
Investor in respect of an equity investment of $140m by the Investor
of subscribing for ordinary shares in the Company …... Co and the
Investor are currently negotiating the final terms and documentation
for the Investment Co estimates that the transaction agreements will
be finalised and executed by 15th April 2016 and a shareholders
circular detailing the investment will be circulated to shareholders
by 30th April 2016 Co. anticipates that the investment will be
completed in June 2016''
ARM Cement eased back -2.43% to close at 30.00 and traded 380,600 shares.
KenolKobil rallied +6.511% to close at a Fresh 2016 High of 11.45 and
on heavy duty volume action of 8.068m shares worth 92.7m. KenolKobil
has surged +19.27% in 2016 and There are persistent rumours that there
has been a stake-building exercise going on last year and this Year.
BAT firmed +0.71% to close at 849.00 and traded 19,800 shares. BAT is
+8.15% in 2016 and set fair.
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