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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Thursday 07th of April 2016

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Russia and U.S. Near De Facto Alliance in Syria @business [Who would have thought?]
Law & Politics

Fighters allied with the U.S. and Russia, long on opposing sides in
the Syrian civil war, are both zeroing in on Islamic State’s center of

After routing the self-declared caliphate in the ancient city of
Palmyra March 27 with the help of Russian air power, the Syrian army’s
next major objective is cutting off the terror group’s main supply
route between Iraq and Syria. Kurdish-led forces backed by the U.S.
are also getting closer to ISIS’s self-proclaimed capital of Raqqa,
raising the possibility of a pincer movement that would bring the U.S.
and Russia into a de facto alliance. That would have the effect of
bolstering Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power.

As the U.S. and Russia step up efforts to complete a peace deal to
follow a partial cease-fire they brokered in February, their interests
are converging in fighting the radical Islamist group even amid
American reluctance to legitimize Assad. A successful campaign could
prove critical for Europe as it grapples for a solution to curb rising
terrorist attacks and a flow of refugees unprecedented since World War

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The Telegraph Ted Cruz sparks an outcry by quoting Winston Churchill after the Wisconsin primary
Law & Politics

Recalling the words of Churchill, he said: "If we open a quarrel
between the past and the present, we risk the future."

Quoting Kennedy, the ultraconservative Texas senator said: "The
American people expect more from us than cries of indignation and

"We are not here to curse the darkness, but to light the candle that
can guide us through that darkness to a safe and sane future."

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This Startup Is Predicting the Future by Decoding the Past
International Trade

When James Shinn was working for the CIA as a senior East Asia expert
more than a decade ago, he longed for the tools of a weatherman. He
wanted to be able to predict that the chance of North Korea
test-firing a missile within a month was, say, 60 percent. It remained
a fantasy, he says, until now.

Shinn and his 14-person team at Predata have developed software that
numerically describes political volatility and risk. It vacuums up
vast quantities of data from online conversations and comments,
compares them with past patterns, and spits out a probability. (A
version of Predata’s service is accessible on the Bloomberg
Professional service.) Shinn likens his product to sabermetrics, the
statistics-driven baseball strategy popularized in Michael Lewis’s
Moneyball. “By carefully gathering lots and lots of statistics on
their past performance from all corners of the Internet, we are
predicting how a large number of players on a team will bat or pitch
in the future,” Shinn says, by way of analogy.

Predata doesn’t replace human analysts so much as offer them a new
tool. Without people choosing what to follow, metadata scraping has
limited use. Moreover, Shinn argues, while risk-analysis companies are
increasingly offering clients numerical percentages, the data are
often pulled from the air. “This is a machine-driven, carefully
calculated risk index,” says Shinn, the company’s founder and chief
executive officer. “There is no arbitrary scoring by a human analyst.”

Each day, Predata monitors about 1,000 Twitter feeds, 10,000 Wikipedia
pages, 50,000 YouTube videos, and several dozen newspapers and
magazines in some 200 countries. It covers 300 topics, including news
about individual companies, the debate over the U.K. leaving the
European Union, and interest rate decisions by central banks.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1410
Dollar Index 94.42
Japan Yen 108.79
Swiss Franc 0.9553
Pound 1.4070
Aussie 0.7583
India Rupee 66.525
South Korea Won 1156.17
Brazil Real 3.6404
Egypt Pound 8.8780
South Africa Rand 15.1142

The Yen extended its rise against the Dollar H/T Holger Zschaepitz
[105 Target]


Euro versus the Dollar 1 Year Chart 1.1410 [1.1450 is Key and we
have tested it today]


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 6 month INO 1226.46 [kind of becalmed]


US #oil WTI jumps as US Crude stockpiles dropped from 86y high H/T
Holger Zschaepitz


Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 38.15 [SELL with a 42.00 STOP]


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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Angola's yellow fever death toll rises to 225: health minister

The death toll from yellow fever outbreak in Angola has risen to 225,
with an estimated 1,600 cases now recorded, Health Minister Luis Sambo
said on Tuesday.

Sambo told a news conference after meeting with World Health
Organisation officials that the disease had spread to 16 of the
country's 18 provinces.

"We need to increase the response capacity ... in both technological
resources (such) as medicines and vaccines, as well as in personnel,"
he said.

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Angola to open loan talks with IMF as oil price bites

"The government of Angola is aware that the high dependence of the oil
sector represents vulnerability for the public finances and the
economy in an extensive way," the Finance Ministry said in a

"The government requested the support of the IMF for a supplementary
programme ... taking account of the decline in the price of

Finance Minister Armando Manuel told Reuters in March that Angola had
no plans to approach the IMF for loans.


In the End, they all have to call Madam Lagarde at the IMF.

Buhari is next.

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Oil crash victim: Angola asks IMF for bailout CNN

Angola has requested help from the IMF including an "economic program"
that could be "supported by financial assistance," according to the
IMF. In other words, the country is seeking a bailout.

Africa's second largest oil producer has been running out of cash
since the crash in oil prices that began in 2014. Oil accounts for
about 75% of government income and 95% of export revenues.

Angola's currency, the kwanza, is down 16% this year, making the
country's dollar-denominated debt more expensive to service.

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AUG-2015 The end is nigh for crude oil and oil producers from Caracas to Luanda, from Riyadh to Abuja

Oil based economies are going to contract, currencies which have
already collapsed are going to be routed and Greek- style austerity
will be the order of the day. The melt-down is coming

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Seventeen killed in clashes in Congo's Brazzaville after disputed election FRANCE 24

Seventeen people have died in clashes that erupted in the wake of
President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s disputed re-election, according to a
government statement released on national television and radio on

Gunbattles broke out on Monday in southern Brazzaville, an opposition
stronghold, shattering the relative calm since the March 20 election
that opposition candidates say was fraudulent.

Three police officers and two gunmen were killed in the clashes,
police spokesman Jules Monkala Tchoumou said on Tuesday.

The government said former members of the “Ninja” militia that fought
Sassou Nguesso in a 1997 civil war raided and set alight military,
police and local government offices.

Twelve assailants and two civilians were among the dead, according to
Tuesday’s statement from the Ministry of Communication.

“The government informs the national and international public that
during the operation launched during the assault, security services
proceeded to arrest about 50 ex-militants who authored the attack,”
said Thierry Moungalla, the communication minister.


The Street is a lot more difficult to control in Africa than it has
been before.

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The rating company cut its growth forecast for this year to 0.8 percent, in line with that of the central bank, from 1.6 percent

The rating company cut its growth forecast for this year to 0.8
percent, in line with that of the central bank, from 1.6 percent, and
reduced its estimate for 2017 to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent,
according to an e-mailed statement on Wednesday.

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S. Africa Hires Citigroup for First Dollar Bond Since 2014

South Africa is preparing a return to the international debt market
for the first time in almost two years, after borrowing costs fell and
President Jacob Zuma survived an impeachment bid, reducing short-term
political risks.

The government picked Citigroup Inc., Rand Merchant Bank and Standard
Bank Group Ltd. as joint lead managers and Investec Bank Plc as a
co-manager for a call with investors Wednesday, according to a person
with knowledge of the plan, who isn’t authorized to speak publicly and
asked not to be identified. Africa’s most-industrialized country may
choose to sell a benchmark-sized dollar bond due in 2026 subject to
market conditions, the person said.

South Africa, which last sold dollar debt in July 2014, included plans
in the budget announced in February to raise $1 billion abroad.

“This would be good timing in my view,” said Kevin Daly, a money
manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in London who helps oversee
$10 billion in emerging-market debt. “Short-term risk is arguably
lower now that Zuma has survived, as expected, the impeachment vote.
Yields are generally very low and you have decent market demand.”

The premium investors demand to hold South African dollar debt rather
than U.S. Treasuries has narrowed 145 basis points since touching a
seven-year high on Jan. 20 to 380 basis points, according to JPMorgan
Chase & Co. indexes. In that period, yields on South Africa dollar
bonds due in September 2025 fell more than 122 basis points to 4.78
percent by 5:16 p.m. in Johannesburg.

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South Africa's 'Teflon president' survives another day, but scandal will stick eventually Simon Allison

As South African satirist Tom Eaton put it on Twitter, asking
parliament to impeach the president was like asking hyenas if they
wanted to stay huddled round the carcass. There was only ever one
possible answer, and the National Assembly duly delivered it on
Tuesday, comprehensively rejecting the opposition’s motion to remove
Jacob Zuma.

read more

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +0.97% 2016

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 15.1142


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.48% 2016


Nigeria's Buhari to sign loan deal from China during visit next week: spokesman


Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang had earlier said in Beijing
that Buhari would visit China from April 11-15 to sign "cooperation
agreements" and attend a business forum. He gave no details.

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -11.09% 2016


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -4.38% 2016


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How Africa Tweets Portland Communications

Africa outstrips US and UK in using Twitter for political conversations

Twitter is ‘coming of age’ in Africa with the platform being widely
used for political debate. Analysis by Portland found that almost 1 in
10 of the most popular African hashtags in 2015 related to political
issues and politicians, compared to 2 per cent of hashtags in the US
and UK. The top political hashtag in Africa was focused on the highest
profile election on the continent last year - #NigeriaDecides.

Portland, a London-based integrated communications agency, analysed
1.6 billion geo-located tweets and the top 5,000 hashtags on the
continent, as part of our third “How Africa Tweets” report. The main
findings of the report are:
• Although tweets about showbiz and entertainment dominated the
conversation last year, representing over 20 per cent of all hashtags,
discussion around politics has grown to 10 per cent. Nigeria, South
Africa, Ethiopia, Burundi and Egypt were the most active in these
political conversations. The report also found that interest in
politics transcends national borders. For example, hashtags about the
Nigerian Presidential Elections and strife in Burundi were among some
of the most popular and widespread hashtags
across Africa.
• English is by far the most dominant language on Twitter in Africa.
This lingua franca has helped bridge national and cultural barriers
across the continent, providing Twitter conversations with a wider
reach than those using conventional media. Of the top 5,000 hashtags
that we analysed, 77% were tweeted in English. Other top languages
like Arabic and French were tweeted significantly less – only 7% and
4% respectively.
• Twitter in Africa is used distinctly less for commercial campaigns
than in other parts of the world. Commercial hashtags (such as brand
names and promotional offers) are 25 times less prominent in Africa
than in the USA, for example.
• Egypt tweets the most out of any country in Africa, with 28% of all
geolocated Twitter volume (amounting to 500 million tweets). Nigeria
(360 million geolocated tweets), South Africa (325 million geolocated
tweets), Kenya (125 million geolocated tweets) and Ghana (70 million
geolocated tweets) round out the top five tweeting African countries.
Overall, there were 1.86 billion geolocated tweets in Africa in 2015 –
a 34-fold increase from our initial research in 2012.
“Our previous studies showed that Twitter in Africa was much more of a
space for social interaction or frivolous banter. This study, our
third, demonstrates that the platform is coming of age with the
prevalence of serious debate about politics and government,” says Mark
Flanagan, Portland’s Senior Partner for Content and Digital Strategy.
“Excitingly, our report also hints at the coming together of Africans
across boundaries to comment on and discuss common issues. How to
successfully engage with these emerging pan-African online communities
represents a challenge for all brands and organisations seeking to
build their presence in this space,” added Allan Kamau, who leads
Portland’s Nairobi office.
On top of this data, the report consists of 12 case studies, which
explore diverse topics such as how Twitter relates to terrorism in
Africa, the Ebola response, economic development and more. To explore
these case studies and our interactive infographic please visit

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.@kcbgroup rallied +1.19% to close at a 2016 closing High of 42.25
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           42.25
Total Shares Issued:          2984227692.00
Market Capitalization:        126,083,619,987
EPS:             6.086
PE:                 6.942

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Chase Bank Kenya Executives Resign After Earnings Restated @Business
Kenyan Economy

Chase Bank Kenya Ltd., a closely held lender, assured customers their
deposits are safe as the company’s chairman and managing director
resigned after financial results issued last week were restated to
show loans to directors and employees more than quadrupled.

Chairman Zafrullah Khan and Managing Director Duncan Kabui “have
stepped aside” from their positions following the release of the
company’s 2015 earnings, the Nairobi-based lender said in an e-mailed
statement on Wednesday, without giving reasons for the changes. The
latest results received a qualified opinion from auditors Deloitte &

“The board would like to reassure all its customers, partners and the
general public that Chase Bank is a strong, sound and transparent
institution that has operated in Kenya for the last 20 years,” Chase
said in the statement. The lender is aware of “malicious and
irresponsible” comments circulating on social-media platforms, it said
in a separate statement on its Twitter account, referring to remarks
of panic withdrawals by account holders.

Chase Bank earlier on Wednesday published results in the Nairobi-based
Standard newspaper showing total contingent liabilities of 26.6
billion shillings ($263 million) as of Dec. 31, 2015, compared with
13.2 billion shillings in 2014. On March 31, it reported liabilities
of 13.2 billion shillings versus 25.8 billion shillings a year
earlier. Loans to employees and directors in 2016 amounted to 13.6
billion shillings versus the 3.24 billion shillings reported last

Kenyan central bank spokesman Samson Burgei didn’t immediately respond
to an e-mailed request for comment. Chase Bank Chief Executive Officer
Paul Njaga didn’t answer calls to his mobile phone.

Muthoni Kuria, who has served on Chase Bank’s board for more than
three years, has been appointed as chairwoman, the lender said. Njaga
will continue as CEO, a position he has held since December 2014.

“The shareholders of the bank who count among the world’s leading
institutional investors from Germany, France and Switzerland have
fully supported the changes, and remain committed to the partnership
with the bank,” Chase said. “We would like to reassure the general
public that our customers’ funds and investments are safe.”


The Group today restated their FY15 results, with loans to directors,
shareholders and associates restated to KES 10.5bn from a previously
reported KES 2.6bn. The bank’s core capital stood at KES 9.6bn. Group
after-tax loss stood at KES 679.1m compared to 2014’s PAT of KES

What is crystal clear is that Deposit Flight to Quality post Imperial
Bank is signalling that market forces will lead a consolidation
process and that this is now plain unavoidable. The Challenge is
around keeping it orderly.

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Chase Bank Ltd. (In Receivership) @chasebankkenya via @CbkKenya
Kenyan Economy

The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has today, Thursday April 7, 2016,
appointed the Kenya Deposit Insurance Corporation (KDIC) as a receiver
for Chase Bank Limited for a period of twelve months, pursuant to the
provisions of Sections 43(1), 43(2) and 53(1) of the Kenya Deposit
Insurance Act, 2012. Chase Bank Limited was issued with a banking
licence in 1996.

read more

@chasebankkenya experienced liquidity difficulties
Kenyan Economy

Consequently, it was not able to meet its financial obligations on
April 6, 2016.

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Kenyan Cenbank governor says commercial bank lending rates still need to fall Reuters
Kenyan Economy

Kenya's central bank governor said inflation could fall further in
coming months and that a proposal by lawmakers to cap commercial
lending rates would be "extremely harmful".

Governor Patrick Njoroge told a news conference on Wednesday
commercial banks lending rates still needed to come down and that the
current account deficit in East Africa's top economy was expected to
come to down 8 percent of gross domestic product.

read more

BOC Kenya reports FY 2015 EPS -35.289% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           100.00
Total Shares Issued:          19525446.00
Market Capitalization:        1,952,544,600
EPS:             7.61
PE:               13.1406

FY Revenue 1.186420b vs. 1.296679b -8.503%

FY Earnings before finance income and taxes 160.175m vs. 200.850m -20.251%
FY Net finance income 61.546m vs. 77.134m -20.209%
FY Profit before tax 221.721m vs. 277.984m -20.240%
FY Profit for the year 148.600m vs. 229.625m -35.286%
EPS 7.61 vs. 11.76 -35.289%
Total dividend 5.20 vs. 5.20 –
Cash & cash equivalents at the end of the year 400.568m vs. 478.158m -16.227%
Total equity 1.714106b vs. 1.747188b -1.893%

Company Commentary

Final Dividend 3.00 a share [Total Dividend for the Year 5.20]
Revenue for the FY was 1.186b -8.5% versus previous year due to
increased market competitiveness.
Profit before Tax was down 20.2% due to the lower Revenue and exchange
losses arising from the depreciation of the local currencies
''fuel cost component of electricity costs has been on a downward Trend''
A new oxygen filling facility was commissioned in Tanzania during the year


Headline Revenue -8.503% and FX losses [a common refrain].

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.81% 2016


146.88 +0.15 +0.10%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -0.27% 2016 [at a 2016 High]


4,030.00 +13.36 +0.33%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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April 2016

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