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Wednesday 20th of April 2016 |
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Macro Thoughts |
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Voice of Jihad, said it was part of Operation Omari, the 2016 spring offensive named after Mullah Omar Law & Politics |
Taliban took responsibility for the attack on its official propaganda outlet, Voice of Jihad, and said it was part of Operation Omari, the 2016 spring offensive named after Mullah Omar, its founder and first emir. The Taliban reported a suicide bomber detonated a vehicle at the gate, which allowed armed fighters to breach the compound. This is a tactic that has been effectively employed by the Taliban and other jihadist groups throughout the world over the past decade.
“Amid the ongoing ‘Omari’ annual campaign at around 09:00 am local time this morning, a martyrdom seeking unit of Islamic Emirate launched a heavy attack on 10th directorate intelligence building located in PD1 of Kabul city,” the statement said. “The operation began when a martyrdom seeker detonated his explosives laden vehicle at the gate of the building, removing all barriers and killing the guards followed by a number of other martyrdom seekers rushing inside and engaging the remaining enemy targets.”
Conclusions
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The image of Russia as a besieged fortress is almost always part of the silovikis's rhetoric Law & Politics |
The lengthy article by Bastrykin, head of the powerful Investigative Committee, goes beyond the usual cautious pronouncements. It openly calls for eliminating the last vestiges of democracy and civil rights:
"Enough playing at fake democracy and following pseudoliberal values. Democracy, or people's power, is nothing but power wielded in the people's interests. These interests can be attained through the common good, not through the absolute freedom of certain representatives of society to do as they please."
Bastrykin's argument is that, for the last decade or so, the U.S. and its allies have been fighting a hybrid war against Russia. Sanctions introduced in response to Russia's interference in Ukraine are part of that offensive, as are the recent drop in oil prices and the subsequent devaluation of the ruble. Yet, Bastrykin wrote, the Western "information war" has been even more destructive. The general believes that the U.S. undermined the Soviet Union by fomenting ethnic strife, and is still at it, somehow getting Russian citizens to join radical Islamic organizations such as the Islamic State. The "so-called struggle against corruption" is also part of the information war. The West, Bastrykin says, is working to radicalize Russians and turn them against their country, and there is worrying evidence that the approach is working: 1,329 "extremist crimes" were recorded in 2015, 28.5 percent more than in 2014.
"It's time to put up a defense against this information war," Bastrykin wrote. "A tough, adequate and symmetrical answer is needed."
Bastrykin also would criminalize cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which "push legal money off the market and threaten the financial stability of the state."
Some of his men are so hard-line that next to them, he might look benevolent.
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"I've read so many accounts over the years predicting the demise of the House of Saud, and each time they've managed to survive," said Robert W. Jordan NYT Law & Politics |
The images of the past year have been deeply unsettling for the people of Saudi Arabia, long accustomed to oil-fueled prosperity and regional clout: militants firing at communities along the country’s southern border; protesters storming the Saudi Embassy in Tehran; civil wars raging in three nearby states.
The view from Riyadh has become increasingly bleak as stubbornly low oil prices constrain the government’s ability to respond to crises and as the kingdom’s regional rival, Iran, moves aggressively to expand its influence at Saudi Arabia’s expense.
Under huge stress, the Saudis have responded in unpredictable ways, often at odds with Washington’s interests. They have launched a costly military offensive in neighboring Yemen that has failed to defeat the Houthi rebels and has empowered the Qaeda affiliate there. They have executed dozens of men on terrorism charges, including a prominent dissident Shiite cleric. And they have largely walked away from Lebanon, suspending billions of dollars in promised aid as Iranian influence there grows.
This is the Saudi Arabia that will greet President Obama, who is scheduled to arrive in Riyadh on Wednesday and who is the source of no small share of this nation’s anxiety. Policy makers across the kingdom have long said that they feel Mr. Obama does not share the country’s regional interests. And after he criticized the Saudis as “free riders” last month, those suspicions have hardened into fears that he may be actively undermining them.
“A large number of factors have come together, both in the region and at home, to create a very challenging threat environment for the Saudis,” said Lori Plotkin Boghardt, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The Saudis feel under siege.”
For decades, the kings and princes who rule Saudi Arabia wielded their oil wealth and religious clout as the controllers of Islam’s holiest sites to pull strings and fund proxies across the Arab world and beyond.
That relationship was unsettled by the Arab uprisings of 2011, when Saudi officials saw the United States cut loose another Arab ally, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, amid popular protests. Since then, frustration among Saudi officials has grown as Mr. Obama limited American engagement in later crises, in Libya, Syria and elsewhere, and as he made a deal with Iran to lift sanctions in exchange for the reining-in of its nuclear program.
The mounting frustration has led Saudi Arabia, under a new monarch, King Salman, to abandon its quiet checkbook diplomacy and lash out. In January, it executed 47 men on terrorism charges, including Qaeda militants and the Shiite cleric — sending what it thought was a message to deter jihadists and Iran from trying to destabilize the kingdom.
Analysts have begun speaking of a “Salman Doctrine,” although it is mostly associated with the king’s son Mohammed bin Salman, 30, who is the defense minister and is second in line to the throne.
Last month, Saudi Arabia suspended $4 billion in aid promised to the Lebanese Army and security forces, saying that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite militant organization in Lebanon, had become too powerful. The Saudis and their gulf allies also issued travel warnings, depriving Lebanon of gulf tourism dollars.
Those moves surprised American officials, who have reported no change in the security situation in Lebanon and who continue to support the Lebanese Army as a counterbalance to Hezbollah.
Saudi Arabia has also shown a growing willingness to use direct force. Last year, its military spending grew to $87.2 billion, as the country passed Russia to become the world’s third-highest military spender. Last month, it opened a new arms factory, and it has proposed building a military base in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa, to project power abroad. Prince Mohammed has also spearheaded the creation of an international alliance of Muslim countries to combat terrorism, although it is unclear when — if ever — it will begin operations.
Diplomats who track the kingdom question whether Saudi Arabia has the strategic capabilities to match its new ambitions. One test case is Yemen, where the kingdom and its allies have carried out a bombing campaign for more than a year, trying to oust the Houthi Shiite militant group from the capital and restore the government — at tremendous cost to the people of Yemen. An estimated 6,400 people have been killed, more than half of them civilians; nearly half the country’s provinces are on the verge of famine; and Al Qaeda has expanded its control in the south.
The Saudis defend the war as essential to their national security. “It is a war of necessity,” said Abdulaziz Sager, a Saudi political scientist and the chairman of the Gulf Research Center. “You can’t let a failing state with a violent nonstate actor be your neighbor.”
Domestically, the fall in oil prices has echoed through the Saudi economy, forcing the government to run a large deficit, impose spending limits and ponder steps that were once unthinkable, like imposing taxes on citizens and privatizing parts of Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant.
Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s have downgraded the country’s credit rating this year, and companies that depend on government contracts have struggled to pay workers, creating problems for citizens and for the kingdom’s many foreign workers.
“These are really uncharted waters,” said Ms. Plotkin Boghardt, the Washington Institute fellow. “The oil income has been like the superglue between the Saudi government and the Saudi citizens. With this glue beginning to melt away, it opens up a whole situation that we’ve never seen before and they’ve never been in before.”
It is not all dire news for the kingdom. Saudi Arabia still has the world’s largest reported reserves of oil, which remains essential to the global economy. The country also has low debt and large cash reserves.
And although Iran has increased its influence in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, it has done so at great cost, financially and militarily. “The Saudis took the region for granted while Iran put a strategy in place back in the ’80s, and has been implementing it year by year and dollar by dollar,” said Randa Slim, an analyst at the Middle East Institute.
But the kingdom maintains strong ties with many other countries — including Egypt, Britain and Pakistan — and as a leading Sunni nation, it has the demographic upper hand against Shiite Iran. “The score is still in their favor because it is a majority Sunni Arab region,” Ms. Slim said.
Officials involved in the Saudi-United States relationship acknowledge the chill, but say that it has not filtered down to the operational level, and that cooperation remains robust on issues like security, counterterrorism and business. And many Saudis realize that Mr. Obama’s days in the White House are almost over and that his successor may engage differently with the kingdom.
“I’ve read so many accounts over the years predicting the demise of the House of Saud, and each time they’ve managed to survive,” said Robert W. Jordan, a former United States ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “They have an enormous survival instinct.”
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Saudi's Other Warning Makes Oil Traders Sweat After Doha Failure Law & Politics |
In an interview published on April 1, Prince Mohammed said that while Saudi Arabia was ready to cap production in concert with other countries, "if there is anyone that decides to raise their production, then we will not reject any opportunity that knocks on our door.”
The world’s largest oil exporter could increase output by more than 1 million barrels a day, or about 10 percent, to 11.5 million if there was demand for it, the prince, chairman of the Supreme Council of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said on April 14. It could increase further to 12.5 million in six to nine months, he added. The country pumped 10.2 million a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“This just shows how central the tensions and the rivalry in the region between Iran and Saudi Arabia are,” Dan Yergin, vice chairman at IHS Inc. said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “There’s zero trust between these two countries right now.”
“Saudi Arabia’s refusal to sign the agreement just proves that they would not mind if prices stay lower for longer,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail. “I would not even be surprised if they hike production further as a ‘revenge’ to Iran’s reaction. They can withstand lower oil prices longer than most of the other producers.”
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Congo-Brazzaville: bombs dropped in residential areas including schools likely act of retaliation Amnesty Africa |
30 bombs dropped on residential areas according to eyewitnesses Three out of the four buildings of local primary school were hit Bombings appear to be in retaliation of 4 April fighting
Air strikes on residential areas in Pool, the south eastern region of Congo-Brazzaville that have reportedly resulted in deaths, casualties and the destruction of churches, schools and medical facilities represent an unlawful use of lethal force by the country’s security forces, Amnesty International said today.
The bombings which took place on 5 April, appear to be in direct retaliation to the violence that broke out in Congo’s capital, Brazzaville the day before (4 April).
The “Ninjas” – an armed group led by Pastor Frederic Ntumi – were blamed by government for the violence which broke out on 4 April, and which came weeks after President Sassou Nguesso won the20 March Presidential elections that opposition claims were marred by fraud and ballot irregularities.
Bombings in Pool
Eyewitnesses told Amnesty that on 5 April, helicopters dropped at least 30 bombs on residential areas in Pool, including three out of the four buildings of a school, in the town of Vindza. The target appeared to be a house which used to be the home of Pastor Frederic Ntumi, leader of the “Ninjas”.
Conclusions
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10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara AfricaThe Star Africa |
During the Arab Spring [now in the bleak mid-Winter], nearly all commentators spoke of how this North African wildfire could not leap the Sahara and head to sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons were that the State [incumbents] had a monopoly on the tools of violence and would bring overwhelming force and violence to bear.
We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina Faso achieved escape velocity. Overthrowing incumbents is all about acceleration, momentum and speed best characterised by the Ger- man word ‘Blitzkrieg’.
Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank, and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.
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Diaspora: a Sh200bn untapped goldmine by @brian_ngugi @dailynation Kenyan Economy |
“The diaspora is a key component of Kenya Inc and one senses the government had an epiphany a while back. The diaspora is the biggest single source of foreign exchange for Kenya,” said Nairobi-based analyst and CEO of Rich Management, Aly Khan Satchu.
“I am surprised that we have not launched a government of Kenya diaspora bond. However, I am now seeing much more structure and architecture around creating the right investment opportunities for the diaspora.”
Echoing Mr Satchu’s sentiments, a Kenyan diplomat based in Europe told Smart Company there is an urgent need for the government to create formal investment avenues to enable Kenyans in the diaspora invest back home.
“In light of the vast opportunity diaspora offers, it is perhaps time we considered reviewing the tax treatment of diaspora cash remittances and investments, by granting them export status as we do for tourism,” said the senior official who sought anonymity.
“Diaspora investment represents an ‘invisible export’ that fully deserves this status. Other nations give refunds to tourists for taxes they may have paid on purchase of goods,” she added.
According to a World Bank report, Kenya is among the highest recipients of remittances in Africa. In 2015, Kenyans in diaspora sent home a record $1.6 billion (Sh163 billion) in remittances.
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Troubled @NSEKenya firms hit by a massive share price erosion Kenyan Economy |
Athi River Mining tops the list of big companies whose shares have tanked, shedding 63 per cent in one year, followed by troubled lender National Bank of Kenya, which has lost 60 per cent of its value, and retail chain Uchumi (53 per cent).
Also in the list of stocks that have come under the most pressure in the bear market are troubled sugar miller Mumias, which has shed 40 per cent of its value, national carrier Kenya Airways (40 per cent), and East African Cables (53 per cent).
Other casualties of the share price battering on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) are investment firm TransCentury (65 per cent), and Atlas Development and Support Services (86 per cent).
Uchumi’s share erosion effectively began with last year’s exit of top managers and directors and the release of a forensic audit report showing insiders had become major suppliers of the company, exposing it to insider theft.
Uchumi has since fallen into a deep pit of losses that have left it insolvent with liabilities in excess of assets.
“This clearly shows that investors are getting fed up with poor results and bad corporate governance and want an end to this. Effectively it means companies that are not being favoured by the business environment should be restructured,” said Raymond Kipchumba, an investment analyst at ABC Capital, a subsidiary of ABC Bank Group.
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"This is time for arranged marriages" Group Managing Director John Gachora said in an interview in Nairobi on Tuesday Kenyan Economy |
“We should start saying ‘you and you must marry, if you don’t marry we’ll take away your operating license.’”
Capital requirements are too low, particularly with smaller banks that have come under increased pressure from depositors, Gachora said. The collapse of smaller lenders needs to spur more mergers and acquisition because “every time one of them goes down, it shakes the confidence” of the public, he said.
Imperial Bank Ltd. was seized by regulators in October amid claims of fraud that company executives deny. In August, Dubai Bank Kenya Ltd. collapsed after it breached daily cash-reserve-ratio requirements.
Non-performing loans as a percentage of total debt granted to customers more than doubled to 11.4 percent at NIC Bank last year, the biggest deterioration among the country’s lenders, Nairobi-based Standard Investment Bank said in a note dated April 14.
Central Bank of Kenya Governor Dr. Patrick Njoroge predicts the market will experience “natural consolidation” that will eventually result in fewer and more resilient lenders.
“It should be forced in my view; it cannot be voluntary because bank consolidation is a very expensive thing to do,” Gachora said.
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11-APR-2016 ::Core Banking System is Sound @thestarkenya Kenyan Economy |
The First overarching Point to note is that we have now entered a new more ''rules-based'' system of regulation. What is also clear is that we were previously in a more permissive environment. Tier 3 Banks are finding themselves at the Bleeding Edge of this move to a more ''rules-based'' System. Years of resisting increased Capital requirements, has meant that these Tier 3 Banks are pirouetting their businesses on ''wafer-thin'' capital. Recent Events [Dubai Bank, Imperial Bank, National Bank and Chase Bank] now means Investors and Depositors are placing considerably less credence on the accounts as presented. Then in a ''Double-Whammy'', Depositors have embarked on a Deposit Flight to Quality further undercutting them. Without Shareholders now stumping up bucketloads of Capital, these Banks are in effect now ''Zombie'' Banks. The Process of Consolidation is now market-led. I appreciate the Authorities are keen to keep this orderly and not allow it to turn disorderly. The important Point for the Authorities is not to provide a blanket ''Put'' Option and to erect a Firewall in the right place. The Central Bank Governor has a fiendishly difficult Brief.
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N.S.E Today |
The Nairobi All Share rallied 0.44 points to close at 146.87 and just below a 2016 High reached march 3rd. The Nairobi NSE20 firmed +4.92 points to close at 3939.50 Equity Turnover clocked 775.438m. The Big News was around Kenya Commercial Bank and chase Bank.
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N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services |
Safaricom rallied +0.86% to score another fresh 2016 closing High of 17.50. Safaricom had lift-Off at the Closing Bell when it was trading session highs of 17.85 +3.18%. Safaricom traded 5.16m shares and there were 5 Buyers for every Seller at the Finish. This is a chart Break-Out right here. Safaricom is +7.36% in 2016 and all set to sprint higher ahead of the release of its FY Earnings.
Kenya Airways firmed +1.14% to close at 4.40 and was trading at 4.50 +3.45% at the Finish. Kenya Airways's CEO reached out to the media last week and struck a confident tone. The share price has held the line here for a few weeks and I think it will take little to take us up to 5.00 and a little beyond.
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N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment |
The Big News this morning established via a Presser at the Central Bank [The Central Bank is a hot-bed of Pressers of late] is that KCB Group is set to acquire a majority stake [''Will conduct a detailed due delligence before acquiring the Majority stake in Chase Bank" CBK Governor via @kenyanwalstreet] in Chase Bank, which will now reopen on Wednesday next week The KCB CEO Joshua Oigara might be better termed the ''Consolidator in Chief'' and is having KCB play a catalytic role at this important juncture of consolidation.
“[The regulators] has today reached understandings with the KCB Bank Kenya Ltd (KCB) on modalities to reopen Chase Bank Ltd) in the next few days and the eventual acquisition of a majority stake in the bank,” said the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) in a statement.
“All Chase Bank Ltd (In Receivership) branches will open by Wednesday, April 27, 2016. The online and mobile banking services will also become available. However, branches may initially offer limited banking services,” the regulator said.
“CBL customers will have immediate access to their deposits up to a maximum of Sh1 million,” said the CBK.
Kenya Commercial Bank rallied +0.59% to close at 42.75 a fresh 2016 Closing High and on good ticket size of 3.026m shares worth 129.874m. Buyers outpaced Sellers by a Factor of 5 to 1 at the Finale signalling that the Price is set to make upside headway. KCB is sitting in Pole Position, its able to drive a hard bargain in this whole process of consolidation and most importantly it is also acting in the National Interest. It marks a coming of Age of the Bank.+0.86%
@KCBGroup share price data here at a 2016 closing High. http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MjE%3D
Equity was heavily traded with 9.953m shares changing hands. Equity closed unchanged at 39.00.
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N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied |
KenGen pushed +1.25% better to close at a 2016 High of 8.10 and was trading at 8.25 +3.13% at the Finish. KenGen is now +14.084% in 2016 and has plenty of upside scope. KenGen trades on a P/E Ratio of 1.545 and frankly if i was one of the bug Debt Providers [JICA, AFD etc etc] I would be scooping up the ordinary shares because they are mis-priced.
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