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Thursday 21st of April 2016 |
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Macro Thoughts
Home Thoughts
The truth is we never stop being children, terrible children covered in sores and knotty veins and tumors and age spots, but ultimately children, in other words we never stop clinging to life because we are life. Roberto Bolaño
In some lost fold of the past, we wanted to be lions and we’re no more than castrated cats. Roberto Bolaño |
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We interpret life at moments of the deepest desperation. Roberto Bolano Africa |
“Truth is to be handled gingerly. That's an egg with a very thin shell.” —Wallace Stegner
Enjoyed catching up with Mr. and Mrs. Chalhoub yesterday and with Mr. Herve Gogo. All asked ''Where is Hannah?''
I said Hannah is back at school getting an education.
And I told her this morning and I think she was pleased and would have been very disappointed otherwise.
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Forecasting the Aftermath of a Ruling on China's Nine-Dash Line Foreign policy Law & Politics |
The arbitration tribunal of five impartial experts that has been considering the Philippines suit against China under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will soon hand down its final decision.
What will Beijing do in response to the tribunal’s impending final award? Ignoring it in silence does not appear to be a feasible option. Some have speculated that a largely adverse decision might lead China to dramatize its protest by withdrawing from the UNCLOS system, as permitted upon one year’s notice. Yet denunciation of the treaty could not occur in time to relieve China of its obligation to comply with the arbitration award, and such an extreme reaction to a judgment of the world community would cause China even more long-lasting damage to its reputation than failure to comply. China would also be surrendering its future opportunities to influence the development of UNCLOS as it relates to many other issues important to Beijing.
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At Erga's palace, here are the names of Obama's delegation: Law & Politics |
1- Susan Rice, US National Security Advisor 2- Ashton Carter, US Secretary of Defense 3- Joseph Westphal, US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia 4- Lisa Monaco, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counter-terrorism 5- Benjamin Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications and Speech-writing 6- Josh Earnest, White House Press secretary 7- John Brennan, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency 8- Robert Malley, Senior Advisor to the President for Counter-ISIS & White House Coordinator for Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Region 9- Jeff Prescott, Senior Director for Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Gulf States 10- Sean Misko, Director for Gulf States
Conclusions
Security, Security, Security.
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Gangsta Islam Has Little to Do With Religion Pankaj Mishra Law & Politics |
"Islam's borders are bloody," Samuel Huntington once wrote, "and so are its innards." Since the 9/11 attacks, that conventional wisdom has fueled a bizarre search for the Islamic roots of modern terrorism.
"Islamic" fanaticism appeared to trump every likely explanation -- historical, sociological and psychological -- for the attacks and others that followed. Islam seemed in dire need of "moderates" if not a "Reformation" -- and many a quixotic government program was launched to encourage both.
After nearly a decade and a half of escalating wars, massacres and rising anti-Muslim prejudice, it may be time to admit that the whole obsession with Islam has been catastrophically counter-productive. The roots of terrorism have always lain much closer -- planted deeper in the modern world that we inhabit than in a diversely-practiced faith that originated in 7th century Arabia.
Despite their DIY interpretations of jihad, men like Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri at least demonstrated some elementary knowledge of Islamic tradition and history. Many of the terrorists involved in recent attacks on Paris and Brussels seem rarely to have stepped inside a mosque.
These outcasts and delinquents were better known for their cocaine consumption and drunken carousing than for their knowledge of the hadith. Indeed, their recruiting sergeant, Khalid Zerkani, assured them that "past criminal convictions were not an obstacle to the Islamic cause, but a vital foundation."
This is the danger of what the Moroccan-Belgian writer Hind Fraihi, who authored a book about the Brussels district of Molenbeek, calls "a little Islam" -- some patently bogus religious claim that's then mixed with a profound "knowledge of guns, safe houses and the underground scene.”
For exponents of Gangsta Islam, mass murder represents an act of self-empowerment -- not all that different from what Oscar Wilde called an "intensified assertion of individualism." Wilde hailed "sin" as release from stagnation; he was writing during the late 19th century when most of Europe’s bourgeois elites, unable to accommodate mass aspirations for prosperity and stability, looked venal and devious.
Then, a widespread mood of disaffection and perverse defiance produced, among others, a poet like Rimbaud who openly proclaimed his desire "to be as scummy as possible" and Baudelaire’s "dandy" who felt at ease only with criminals. These were not mere literary conceits. Terrorism first emerged during this period of traumatic social and economic transformation.
The man often called the first modern terrorist, a Frenchman named Emile Henry, bombed a mining company in 1892 and two years later, a much-frequented café near the Gare Saint-Lazare. In court, Henry claimed to have acted so that the "insolent triumphs" of the bourgeoisie were shattered, and "its golden calf would shake violently on its pedestal, until the final blow knocks it into the gutter and pools of blood."
France in the late 19th century suffered some of the worst excesses of terrorism by disenfranchised and radicalized young men; it also hosted proto-Fascist movements that demonized capitalism and moneymaking Jews. Attacks were directed at institutions that seemed to represent the deceitful values of the bourgeoisie. There was one on a disreputable music hall in Lyons in 1882; it may have been directly provoked by an anarchist newspaper that said, "You can see there, especially after midnight, the fine flowers of the bourgeoisie and of commerce."
An anarchist attacked the Paris stock exchange in 1886; another hurled a bomb at the Chamber of Deputies in Paris in 1893. An Italian anarchist then stabbed to death the president of France for refusing to pardon the murderer.
As Richard Bach Jensen relates in his illuminating book, "The Battle Against Anarchist Terrorism," European states responded to terrorism with brutal repression: Torture became common again, along with summary trials, executions and crackdowns. And governments cynically started to use the threat of terrorism to shore up domestic support.
The period also coincided with the birth of mass journalism. A sensationalistic press depicted the murderers as a powerful conspiratorial force spanning the globe. Predictably, important differences between their aims and character were ignored.
Our own intellectual confusion seems deeper, perhaps because history since the end of the cold war appeared to be ending in the universal triumph of democracy and capitalism. Everyone on earth seemed on their way to being middle-class consumers. By interrupting this conviction of inevitability, 9/11 and subsequent terrorist attacks appeared to be the work of people driven entirely by medieval religious fanaticism.
Today we're shocked by demagogues, from France to India to the U.S., who scapegoat minorities and stoke vengefulness among angry masses. But they reflect the same recurring pathologies of the modern world as the delinquents of Gangsta Islam -- and indeed the social outcasts who were rioting in the banlieues of Paris long before the pied pipers of Islamic State arrived on the scene.
It's now clear that a fixation with reforming Islam saved us from much difficult and necessary reflection on our secular political and economic institutions. The fact is that they definitely and urgently need a Reformation.
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"Russia is starting to weaponize electoral processes in Europe," said Joerg Forbrig, senior program director of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. in Berlin. Law & Politics |
“The Lisa Affair was a real eye-opener.”
The mobilization in Germany shows a reach by the Kremlin into the political workings of Europe’s largest economy that goes far beyond the frequent policy hazings meted out by its English-language media arms, RT television and the Sputnik news service.
Putin’s longtime foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, broke with diplomatic convention in late January to accuse Germany of a cover-up in the Lisa Affair. That outraged Merkel’s government, prompted Lavrov’s counterpart to issue a rare personal rebuke and led the chancellery to order the BND spy agency to probe the Kremlin’s role in the scandal, the officials in Berlin said.
Germany already has a special unit tasked with countering Russian disinformation and it works on the assumption that Putin’s goal is to topple EU-friendly governments and replace them with pro-Russia parties, regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum, according to the officials.
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Mr. Erdogan Will see You Now: Welcome to Banking's Toughest Job Emerging Markets |
Erdem Basci’s biggest accomplishment may be that people still talk about the independence of Turkey’s central bank.
The 49-year-old former academic was one of the world’s most innovative and unpredictable central bankers during a five-year term that ended Tuesday and wasn’t renewed. He was also one of the most beleaguered, criticized by investors for missing inflation targets every year, and berated by his prime minister-then-president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as a traitor, a failure and the government’s primary obstacle to reaching ambitious economic goals.
Basci’s departure leaves his replacement, 40-year-old Murat Cetinkaya, with one of the toughest jobs in central banking. He’ll have to manage Erdogan’s pressure for rapid cuts in borrowing costs, while also showing enough independence to maintain the confidence of foreign investors who own more than $82 billion of Turkey’s stocks and bonds.
Frontier Markets
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Cling On African Leaders Inviting Coups, Warns Kofi Annan Africa |
FORMER UN secretary general Kofi Annan says long serving African leaders were unnecessarily exposing their regimes to military coups in their countries if they continued clinging to power.
Speaking to the media at the 5th Tana High-Level Forum on Security in Africa, Annan urged leaders to leave office when their time was up.
"I think Africa has done well, by and large the coups have more or less ended, generals are remaining in their barracks, but we are creating situations which may bring them back," the Nobel laureate said.
"If a leader doesn't want to leave office, if a leader stays on for too long, and elections are seen as being gamed to suit a leader and he stays term after term after term, the tendency may be the only way to get him out is through a coup or people taking to the streets.
"Neither approach can be seen as an alternative to democracy, to elections or to parliamentary rule. Constitutions and the rules of the game have to be respected."
Annan, the keynote speaker at the forum this year urged African leaders to abandon their winner-take-all systems he said have tended to fuel conflicts on the continent as the opposition demanded a say in the running of national affairs.
Conclusions
Kofi is rarely this outspoken.
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Congo police fire tear gas at anti-government protestors Africa |
Police in southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo fired tear gas on Wednesday to disperse hundreds of anti-government protesters who accused security forces of vandalizing posters of opposition leaders, human rights activists said.
Political tension is high in Congo, where opponents of President Joseph Kabila say he is trying to cling to power beyond the end of his mandate in 2016. Violent protests over the issue in January 2015 killed more than 40 people.
More than 500 supporters of the opposition UNAFEC party clashed with police in the Kenya neighborhood of Lubumbashi, Timothee Mbuya, the president of a local human rights organization called Justicia, told Reuters.
Lubumbashi is the largest city of copper-rich Katanga, which is Kabila's home region, but he has faced vigorous opposition there and several prominent supporters have defected from his ruling coalition over the last 18 months.
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Kenya's @KCBGroup to manage opening of Chase Bank @FT Kenyan Economy |
Kenya’s central bank has declared a “new normal” in what it expects of lenders and its own supervision and announced that Kenya Commercial Bank will manage the reopening of Chase Bank, which was put into receivership a fortnight ago.
Patrick Njoroge, governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, said lenders in east Africa’s largest economy would no longer be able to hide behind “fuzzy numbers and creative accounting”. Such practices have led to Mr Njoroge putting three banks into receivership since he took office last June while the police are investigating six executives at a fourth bank.
The tighter supervisory regime has triggered a flight to larger banks by depositors and prompted Mr Njoroge to urge smaller institutions to merge or seek strategic investors. More than half a dozen have had to raise their allocations for non-performing loans significantly as they come under closer scrutiny by the regulator.
Kenya has 42 banks for a population of 40m, making it one of the most densely banked countries in Africa. Analysts believe consolidation will involve up to 10 smaller banks in the medium term. Nigeria, in contrast, has 22 banks serving its population of 180m.
“The new normal will require following the law, in terms of banking practices, in the requirement of strong governance, of responsibility, of [our] supervision, and transparency,” Mr Njoroge said.
Adesoji Solanke, African banking analyst at Renaissance Capital, was “broadly supportive” of the central bank’s efforts to clean up the industry. However he said in a note on Wednesday that he would “like to see more clarity provided upfront on the steps being taken”, particularly in relation to the results of an “IT audit and … the remedial steps to be taken at each bank”.
Mr Njoroge said KCB, Kenya’s largest bank by assets, would oversee the reopening of Chase by next Wednesday and would have the option to take a majority stake in the lender that specialises in servicing small and medium-sized enterprises. “They will conduct a detailed due diligence to determine the details” of any transaction,” the governor said.
The receivership lasts a year but one person familiar with the due diligence said a decision could be expected “within a few months”. “There are still a lot of stones to turn over and we have no idea what’s under them,” the person said.
Patrick Njoroge, governor of Kenya's central bank, pauses during a Bloomberg Television interview in Cape Town, South Africa, on Friday, Nov. 27, 2015. Kenya is ready to take action to protect the economy from potential market turmoil when the U.S. begins raising interest rates, having built up enough buffers to prepare for the event, Njoroge said. Photographer: Halden Krog/Bloomberg
Joshua Oigara, KCB’s chief executive, declined to comment on the central bank’s announcement. KCB said a statement would be released “in due course”. The central bank said it would help provide liquidity to manage Chase’s reopening.
Chase, the country’s 11th largest lender with assets of about Ks140bn ($1.3bn), was placed in receivership after a run on its deposits triggered partly by an announcement that the directors were making loans to themselves larger than the bank’s working capital. Mr Njoroge said the central bank received nine “expressions of interest” to manage Chase, including two from foreign banks.
Mr Solanke said Chase would be a good fit for KCB, which is looking for new acquisitions, because Chase is strong in SME and micro lending, areas that are not among KCB’s strengths.
KCB is hoping to win approval at its annual meeting next week to raise Ks10bn in a rights issue.
Conclusions
From yesterdays Wrap-Up
KCB is sitting in Pole Position, its able to drive a hard bargain in this whole process of consolidation and most importantly it is also acting in the National Interest. It marks a coming of Age of the Bank.
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18-APR-2016 ::Chase Bank and the Story of the 3 Wise Monkeys Mizaru, Kikazaru and Iwazaru Kenyan Economy |
Tier 3 Banks are finding themselves at the Bleeding Edge of this move to a more ''rules-based'' System. Years of resisting increased Capital requirements, has meant that these Tier 3 Banks are pirouetting their businesses on ''wafer-thin'' capital. Recent Events [Dubai Bank, Imperial Bank, National Bank and Chase Bank] now means Investors and Depositors are placing considerably less credence on the accounts as presented. Then in a ''Double-Whammy'', Depositors have embarked on a Deposit Flight to Quality further undercutting them. Without Shareholders now stumping up bucketloads of Capital, these Banks are in effect now ''Zombie'' Banks. The Process of Consolidation is now market-led. I appreciate the Authorities are keen to keep this orderly and not allow it to turn disorderly. The important Point for the Authorities is not to provide a blanket ''Put'' Option and to erect a Firewall in the right place. The Central Bank Governor has a fiendishly difficult Brief.
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Foreign exchange reserves rise to 15-month high as inflows grow Kenyan Economy |
Kenya’s forex reserves have shot up $440 million (Sh44.5 billion) from the beginning of the year to hit $7.51 billion (Sh760 billion) as favourable macroeconomic conditions led to higher forex inflows and lower outflows.
Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) dollar reserves are now at a 15 month-high covering 4.89 months’ worth of imports. At the beginning of this year the country had 4.5 month cover at $7.07 billion.
“The exchange rate has been stable, while there is the impact of lower oil prices that have improved balance of payments. We see the current account deficit this year closing at eight per cent of GDP (gross domestic product).”
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Communications Authority accuses disbanded board of soliciting bribes from Airtel Kenyan Economy |
Members of the disbanded Communications Authority of Kenya (CA) board used their positions to solicit bribes and falsify mileage allowance claims, director-general of the regulator Francis Wangusi has said.
Mr Wangusi’s allegations are echoed by Mr Ngene Gituku, the authority’s chairman, who on Friday at a press briefing said the regulator has evidence to support the claim that a board member went to Airtel seeking bribes to quash demands for a controversial Sh2.1 billion licence fee.
Conclusions
This is a Given.
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