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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 08th of June 2016
 
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Africa

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Gordon Parks' shot of Ali after a training session in Miami in 1966 is breathtaking.
Africa


So much detail, so much contrast and, for once, it’s a portrait of the
champion without any hint of braggadocio.

“Friendship is the hardest thing in the world to explain. It's not
something you learn in school. But if you haven't learned the meaning
of friendship, you really haven't learned anything.” ― Muhammad Ali

read more


Image of Ali and George Foreman taken before Ali's second fight with Jerry Quarry?
Africa


The expressions, the simmering contempt, the outfits, the saturated
colours – what’s not to love about this image of Ali and George
Foreman taken before Ali’s second fight with Jerry Quarry?

“Champions aren't made in gyms. Champions are made from something they
have deep inside them-a desire, a dream, a vision. They have to have
the skill, and the will. But the will must be stronger than the
skill.” ― Muhammad Ali

read more






Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally in Redding, California. Trevor Noah, the South African comedian, has compared Trump to an African president. Photograph: Stephen Lam/Reuters
Law & Politics


Trevor Noah, in his new role as host of the Daily Show in the US,
described Donald Trump as the perfect African president. There was, he
said, the self-regard of Idi Amin, the repressiveness of Robert
Mugabe, the eccentricity of Muammar Gaddafi.

read more


.@realdonaldtrump TRUMP: MEXICANS SWARMING ACROSS BORDER, ENROLLING IN LAW SCHOOL, AND BECOMING BIASED JUDGES @BorowitzReport
Law & Politics


Unless the United States builds a wall, Mexicans will swarm across the
border, enroll in law school en masse, and eventually become biased
judges, Donald J. Trump warned supporters on Monday.

At a rally in San Jose, the presumptive Republican nominee said that
“making America great again” meant preventing the nation from becoming
“overrun by Mexican judges.”

“We don’t win anymore,” he told the crowd. “We don’t win at judges.”

While Trump offered no specific facts to support his latest
allegations, he said that he had heard about the threat of incoming
Mexican judges firsthand from border-patrol agents.

“They see hundreds of these Mexicans, and they’re coming across the
border with lsat-prep books,” he said. “It’s a disgrace.”

In a line that drew a rousing ovation from supporters, Trump blasted
Mexican leaders for their role in the crisis, claiming, “They’re
sending us their worst people: lawyers.”

read more


Assad: Syria will win War, Aleppo Will Be Graveyard of Erdogan's Dreams
Law & Politics


Assad blamed much of the fighting, particularly in the north on
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who he declared a “fascist” in
the speech before parliament, a declaration that sparked thunderous
applause.

Assad vowed that Aleppo would be “the graveyard where the hopes and
dreams of the butcher Erdogan will be buried.”

read more



The Alchemist Who Turned Toxic Assets Into Gold at @Citi
International Trade


The memo landed on a Sunday in November. It was 2007, and securities
backed by subprime mortgages were roiling markets and imperiling
banks. Merrill Lynch Chief Executive Officer Stan O’Neal had just
resigned under pressure, and Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince was rumored to
be on his way out.

So the Nov. 4 memo to employees in Citigroup’s markets division seems
bold in hindsight. While other banks were looking to unload the toxic
securities and Citigroup was taking an $11 billion writedown on its
holdings, then-trading chief Jamie Forese and fixed-income head Paco
Ybarra had other plans. They announced they’d turn the bank’s souring
mortgage debt over to a new team and chart a course for the future. It
was, they said, a “great opportunity.”

The man they would soon ask to oversee that strategy was Mark
Tsesarsky, a refugee from Ukraine with intense blue eyes and a cool
demeanor. At the time, T-Man, as he was known around the bank, was
head of special situations for securitizations, which meant he made
bets on Citigroup’s behalf with bonds backed by mortgages and other
assets. Now his bosses were asking him to help limit losses on someone
else’s portfolio of collateralized debt obligations—instruments with
names such as Bonifacius and Jupiter that were threatening to destroy
the bank—and find a way to profit from the turmoil.

Over the next eight years, Tsesarsky and his team did just that. They
rebuilt their bank into Wall Street’s biggest for CDOs, not by issuing
securities but by buying billions of dollars of debt, holding it as
values rose, and trading with customers. In the three years ended in
December 2015, the handful of traders notched almost $2 billion in
revenue, more than any other desk at the bank, according to people
familiar with the company’s operations. Their performance was made
possible by an unprecedented rescue of the financial system, including
a bailout of Citigroup, and a flood of central bank money that lifted
asset prices.

read more





Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1364
Dollar Index 93.72
Japan Yen 107.12
Swiss Franc 0.9646
Pound 1.4557
Aussie 0.7455
India Rupee 66.745
South Korea Won 1156.66
Brazil Real 3.4396
Egypt Pound 8.8826
South Africa Rand 14.8912

Suspected Fat Finger Sends Pound Surging in Twitchy Market

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/06/07/suspected-fat-finger-sends-pound-surging-in-twitchy-market/

Sterling 5 day Chart INO 1.4537

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=w&t=c&a=2&w=15

Goldman puts July rate-boost odds at twice what Bond market sees.
H/T Holger Zschaepitz

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/740142769499480064

Dollar Index 3 Month Chart INO 93.72 [93.00 is the Key]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

read more


Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ
Commodities


Gold 6 month INO 1250.25

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&a=50&w=1&v=d6

US #Oil settles >50/bbl for 1st time since Jul 2015 on US draw
forecasts, #Nigeria worry. H/T Holger Zschaepitz

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/740265305721733120

read more




Morgan Stanley Sees Babies and Billionaires as the Key to Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets


Have more babies. Control borrowing. Rear self-made billionaires. Keep
your currency cheap.

That’s the advice of Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan
Stanley Investment Management, for nations seeking to rise -- or at
least avoid a fall.

Frontier Markets

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The @WorldBank is downgrading its 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4% from the 2.9% pace projected in January.
Africa


Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to slow
again in 2016, to 2.5%, down from an estimated 3.0% in 2015, as
commodity prices are expected to remain low, global activity is
anticipated to be weak, and financial conditions are tightening. Oil
exporters are not likely to experience any significant pickup in
consumption growth, while lower inflation in oil importers should
support consumer spending. However, food price inflation due to
drought, high unemployment, and the effect of currency depreciation
could offset some of this advantage. Investment growth is expected to
slow in many countries as governments and investors cut or delay
capital expenditures in a context of fiscal consolidation.

read more


Global Economic Prospects June 2016 @worldbank
Africa


Sub-Saharan Africa GDP 2015 2016 2017
South Africa 1.3 0.6 1.1
Nigeria 2.7 0.8 3.5
Angola 2.8 0.9 3.1

Sub-Saharan Africa. Regional growth slowed noticeably to 3.0 percent
in 2015, down from 4.5 percent in 2014, and 0.3 percentage point lower
than January estimates. The slowdown was most severe in oil exporters
(Angola, Nigeria), where low oil prices sharply slowed activity (World
Bank 2016f). The decline in metal prices led to a substantial fall in
revenues and exports in non-energy mineral exporting countries. Other
adverse developments included drought (South Africa, Zambia),
electricity shortages (Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia), the Ebola
crisis (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), and conflict (Burundi, South
Sudan). Growth remained robust in other oil importing countries,
supported by ongoing infrastructure investments, private consumption,
and increased agricultural production. Regional growth is expected to
slow further to 2.5 percent in 2016, amid depressed commodity prices,
rising to an average of 4.1 percent in 2017-18, reflecting a gradual
improvement in the region’s largest economies— Angola, Nigeria, and
South Africa. Domestic downside risks include delays in implementing
the necessary adjustment to deteriorating terms of trade or in the
realization of reforms, and worsening drought conditions. Political
and security-related risks remain high in several countries. On the
external side, a further decline in commodity prices,
weaker-than-expected growth in advanced economies, and tighter global
financing conditions could intensify pressures on fiscal and current
account positions and affect foreign direct investment, aid, and other
external flows.

read more


08-FEB-2016 :: Kenya and East Africa on The Up as The Rest of SSA Slumps @TheStarKenya
Africa


For a while, I have been saying that Kenya and East Africa looks like
a bright star in what increasingly looks like a darkening sub-Saharan
sky. The shilling has been ‘Teflon’ since October and its performance
is a signal in the noise. With the exception of South Sudan [its going
to take decades for this leadership to get it] and Burundi [where the
African Union blinked], this region is shining bright. Kenya is
expected to post a six per cent GDP handle in 2016, Tanzania a seven
per cent, Uganda around five per cent, Ethiopia [even with a drought
that has scorched farmlands] probably eight per cent and the DR Congo
[where the more intrepid Kenyan corporates are stealing a March]
somewhere around nine per cent.

Meanwhile Nigeria, the biggest economy in SSA, will surely contract in
2016 and not least because its president is determined not to devalue
the naira. The curve of history [from Soros skinning the Bank of
England in 1992, to the Mexican peso crisis in 1994, to the Thai baht
crisis in 1998 and many more too numerous to mention] confirm that
maintaining an artificial foreign exchange rate is a fool’s errand and
eventually carries the risk that the breakdown spirals out of control
and can become seriously disorderly. The official naira rate is just
below 200 to the dollar but no one is holding any store by that price
and that’s why absolutely no one is putting any more money in Nigeria
because they all know when the haircut is finally imposed it’s going
to be a big one. I find it just extraordinary that such a brilliant
president would risk it all on a bet on a single number in a game of
roulette. Those are the odds.

South Africa which is the second biggest economy in SSA will also
contract or be at zero per cent GDP this year. Here again, the David
Van Rooyen interlude at the Finance ministry was a step too far.

The third biggest economy in SSA is Angola. Here we are in uncharted
and possibly revolutionary territory.

read more


Congo president will seek a third term The Times
Africa


Joseph Kabila, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has
signalled that he may cling to power by changing the constitution to
let him take a third term in office.

He is required to step down, by law, when his second term expires in
November, but there is no electoral roll, there is no funding for a
ballot, and the government is yet to show any signs that it wants to
hold elections.

Conclusions

read more


06-JUN-2016 :: President Kabila, however, outwitted Katumbi by removing him from the street and the Congo entirely @TheStarKenya
Africa


I flicked the channels and came across a report from the Congo, where
opposition presidential hopeful Moise Katumbi had been leading the
street against a third term for Kabila. ‘’Birthday-Boy’’ President
Joseph Kabila is constitutionally barred from running for a third
term, and Katumbi has set out his stall now and is a formidable
adversary. In fact, the numbers were building and Katumbi must have
been thinking this might just turn into a Tsunami. President Kabila,
however, outwitted Katumbi by removing him from the street and the
Congo entirely.  is might well prove a cleverly administered technical
knock-out.

read more




Angola will investigate reports of a $50 billion shortfall in the accounts of the state-run oil company, local newspaper Valor Economico reported
Africa


Angola will investigate reports of a $50 billion shortfall in the
accounts of the state-run oil company, local newspaper Valor Economico
reported, citing unidentified people close to international
consultants hired to restructure the company.

The assessment uncovered “discrepancies” between the funds received
and invested and showed that the company had withheld revenue to the
government, according to Valor’s report published on Monday. Some of
Sonangol’s assets were overvalued and contracts weren’t negotiated in
the best interest of the state, according to the newspaper.

read more


SOUTH African business confidence fell to the lowest since the end of white minority rule in May
Africa


The sentiment index declined by 3.2 basis point to 79.3 last month,
the Johannesburg-based South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry
said in e-mailed statement on Tuesday.

This was 7.6 index points lower than a year before and the worst index
level since June 1993.

South Africa All Share Bloomberg +7.13% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

54,305.73 +314.97 +0.58%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.9321

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +10.15% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CASE:IND

read more


Nigeria Officials Say They're Still Working Out FX Policy @business
Africa


When asked how long before a more flexible foreign-exchange regime was
unveiled, investors were told it would probably be ”days or weeks,"
said Kevin Daly, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, who
attended the talks. Aberdeen has sold all its Nigerian government debt
in response to the introduction of capital controls. Nigerian
authorities said they’re ”having discussions, including with local
banks,” Daly said by phone from London.

Conclusions

They have had more than a Year ~ FX Paralysis or a hybrid tiered
system is essentially @NicolasMaduro Economics

https://twitter.com/alykhansatchu/status/740408003879391232

@NGRPresident  Jun 6 President Buhari this morning departed Abuja
for London, on a 10-day vacation.

https://twitter.com/NGRPresident/status/739766408477822980

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.07% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -12.39% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Renamo gunmen attack train in central Mozambique: state news agency

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mozambique-unrest-train-idUSKCN0YT28D

This is the first time since Renamo stepped up hostilities this year
that a train has come under attack, the state news agency reported,
adding that previous ambushes have been against traffic on the main
roads.

#Uganda's Yoweri Museveni names new cabinet, gives wife key
ministry  @ReutersAfrica

https://twitter.com/ReutersAfrica/status/740140366486228992

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Centum Investment @Centum_Inv reports FY16 PAT +25.247% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           41.00
Total Shares Issued:          665441775.00
Market Capitalization:        27,283,112,775
EPS:             11.75
PE:                 3.489

FY Investment and other income 24.165074b vs. 11.826150b +104.336%
FY Operating and administrative costs [11.290209b] vs. [2.458356b] +359.259%
FY PBT 10.872693b vs. 8.817159b +23.313%
FY PAT 9.947630b vs. 7.942432b +25.247%
FY Other comprehensive income, net of tax [2.346996b] vs. 0.821719b -385.620%
EPS 11.75 vs. 10.45 +12.440%
Total Equity 43.258b vs. 38.555b +12.198%
Closing cash & cash equivalents 10.197b vs. 9.006b +12.198%

Dividend 1.00 vs. –

Company Commentary


Zero dividend Policy since 2009. Final Dividend 1.00 a share
Book Value of shareholder funds [NAV] grew +23% to 39.3b
NAV 59.08 a share 31st March 2016
''Total group consolidated assets grew by 25% to 51.5b primarily
reflecting the increase in value of the investment portfolio. The
Company determines the Fair Value of its non-subsidiary investments in
accordance with international Private Equity and Venture Capital
Valuation [IPEV] guidelines, while subsidiaries are held at their Net
Asset Values''
Listed Equities as a proportion of the marketable securities portfolio
23% as at March 2016 [versus 70% March 2015]
Net Debt 6.559b versus 3.896b
Gearing 16.7% versus 12.2%

Table 3 Third Party Equity Funding
Two Rivers Old Mutual 6.4b
Two Rivers ICDC 0.5b
Two Rivers AVIC 6.5b
Total 13.4b

Table 4 Value Realisation through Exits
2015 UAP 5.2b
2016 AON 1.0B

read more




@Centum_Inv's objectives under the Centum 3.0. H/T @CapitalFMKenya
Kenyan Economy


Conclusions


Strong Earnings. Some well timed unloads. Incredible outperformance
when compared to the benchmark equity Indices.
The Dividend of a Shilling will be well received.

Showing the depth of the fall, tourist arrivals fell from 1.8 million
in 2011 to 1.18 million last year. @ReutersAfrica

http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKCN0YT0LU

06-JUN-2016 ::Street protests will hurt 6% growth forecast, @TheStarKenya

http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/PX_013NSX0606.pdf

The opposition leaders are aware of this; part of their leverage is
the ability to slow down the economy. @gettleman @nytimes

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/07/world/africa/kenyas-collective-uh-oh-another-election-is-coming.html?_r=0

read more


A day after deadly protests rocked several areas of Kenya, government security officials issued a decree on Tuesday banning all "unlawful demonstrations." @nytimes @gettleman
Kenyan Economy


Joseph Nkaisserry, Kenya’s interior minister, said protesters “armed
with stones, machetes and other crude weapons” had caused “heightened
political tension, disruption of peace and loss of livelihoods
affecting thousands of ordinary Kenyans.”

As a result, Mr. Nkaisserry warned, “from today, the Government
prohibits all unlawful demonstrations in the country.”

The protests have scared away business and tourists. One Kenyan
investment adviser in Nairobi, Aly-Khan Satchu, has estimated that the
country loses the equivalent of $5 million each day the protesters
take to the streets, because of interruptions to commerce, the closing
of businesses and the destruction of property.

Kenya is scheduled to hold a presidential election next year, and many
Kenyans worry that the disruptions, anxiety and violence that usually
surround elections have already begun.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.093
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -0.73% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

144.63 +0.79 +0.55%

52WK RANGE 135.71 - 164.41

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -5.93% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,801.03 -0.28 -0.01%

52WK RANGE 3,745.38 - 4,906.07

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more


Imperial Bank chiefs turn heat on Central Bank officials Nation
Kenyan Economy


Imperial Bank directors have claimed that senior Central Bank of Kenya
(CBK) officials who were complicit in fraudulent transactions that led
to the collapse of the financial institution in 2015 are now an
obstacle in its restructuring and revival.

The directors told Parliament on Tuesday that CBK officers were
hindering effective investigations into fraud that precipitated the
fall of the financier and are now pressing for its liquidation to
cover their involvement in the scam.

CBK appointed the Kenya Deposit Insurance Corporation as the receivers
of the bank in October, 2015 for 12 months following its collapse amid
revelations that up to Sh34 billion of shareholders’ deposits were
missing.

“It is plainly obvious that such complicit officers cannot be
entrusted with the investigations which, if properly conducted, would
unearth and expose their fraudulent dealings in cahoots with former
group managing director Abdulmalek Janmohamed and senior employees of
the bank,” said Imperial Bank chairman Alnashir Popat in his address
to Members of Parliament.

Conclusions

Yeah right

read more



Tanzania's Bank M to cross-list on Dar, Nairobi stock markets @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

 



It will become the first Tanzanian lender to enter the Kenyan market
after 73 per cent of its shareholders under the M Holdings Group
agreed to buy 51 per cent stake in Oriental Commercial Bank.

 

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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June 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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