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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 13th of July 2016

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Macro Thoughts

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Good Morning World from A Bend in the @MaraFairmont River #fairmontmoments

“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at
night. I never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of
river and forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and
even on a moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise
— dipped a paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were
another person. The river and the forest were like presences, and much
more powerful than you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt
the land taking you back to something that was familiar, something you
had known at some time but had forgotten or ignored, but which was
always there. You felt the land taking you back to what was there a
hundred years ago, to what had been there always.”
― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

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11-JUL-2016 if the Fairmont Mara is a proxy [in fact, I do not think it is] then tourism is back and on a crest of a wave.

We have so many wonderful places to visit in Kenya and I find looking
at the shape-shifting landscape incredibly therapeutic and sensual. It
metaphorically washes away the week and allows you to look at things
as if it were a clean slate.

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Chef Stephen Harris describes his restaurant, the Sportsman, as a grotty seaside pub.

It's in a former hotel on the Kent coast. The nearest neighbor is a
run-down caravan site.

And it's just been named the U.K.'s best restaurant in the National
Restaurant Awards.

Harris's food is terroir-based, with most of the meat and vegetables
coming from Kent, with fish and seafood from local fishermen and salt
from the sea. The homemade bread is as good as you will find anywhere
in England.

The £65 tasting menu - with dishes such as roasted partridge with
celeriac "risotto" and slip sole grilled in seaweed butter - best
represents Harris's cooking. (He describes it as "modern country,"
which makes me think of Taylor Swift.)

The a la carte features beautiful fish that is simply cooked. Harris
finds the finest local produce and resists the temptation to get
chef-y with it.

The menu changes daily and is written on a blackboard, where options
may include roast sea-trout fillet with pea sauce & deep-fried oyster
(£20.95) and baked hake fillet with cherry tomato sauce and
green-olive tapenade (£21.95).

There are Whitstable oysters, poached with rhubarb and seaweed, or
with pickled cucumber and avruga caviar. Rock oysters come with hot
chorizo (£2.50).

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China's South China Sea Claims Dashed by Hague Court Ruling
Law & Politics

China’s prestige as a rising global power suffered a blow as an
international tribunal said its efforts to assert control over the
South China Sea exceeded the law.

The ruling is a rebuff to years of Chinese activity in the waterway.
Under President Xi Jinping, China has built a web of artificial
islands with runways and lighthouses. It has shooed away planes and
ships from other nations, and its coast guard has clashed with fishing
boats. At the heart of Xi’s actions is a bid to restore China to great
power status and push back against decades of U.S. influence.

China boycotted the process and dismissed the ruling. The outcome may
empower other claimant states and undercut Xi’s efforts to present
China as a responsible player on the world stage. The risk is it now
hardens its stance over a waterway that hosts about $5 trillion of
trade a year and is a link for global energy shipments.

“There was no evidence that China has historically exercised exclusive
control over the waters or their resources,” the Permanent Court of
Arbitration in The Hague said Tuesday in a statement. As such there
was no legal basis for the country’s claim, it said.

The ruling went beyond what analysts had expected, and prompted an
immediate response from Beijing.

"The ruling is as bad as was possible," Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of
the Communist Party-run Global Times, wrote in a Weibo post. "This is
the worst, the most extreme version of several possible scenarios."

China’s military said it would “firmly protect” its maritime rights
and interests.  "The award is null and void and has no binding force,"
its Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The court found that:
Scarborough Shoal doesn’t generate a 200 nautical mile (370 kilometer)
exclusive economic zone
Mischief Reef, Second Thomas Shoal and Subi Reef were submerged at
high tide in their natural condition and don’t generate a 12 nautical
mile territorial sea or EEZ
Johnson Reef, Cuarteron Reef and Fiery Cross Reef, on which China has
completed a 3 kilometer airstrip, are high-tide features that generate
a territorial sea, but not an EEZ
Taiwan-held Itu Aba is also a high-tide feature and doesn’t generate an EEZ

The court found China caused “severe harm” to the environment with its
island-building and breached UNCLOS regulations by harassing
Philippine vessels.


What happens next?

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When Theresa May takes office on Wednesday, her most-watched act as U.K. prime minister will be naming a Brexit Tsar.
Law & Politics

Extricating the U.K. from the European Union will require finesse and
force and whoever gets the job will need to be unswervingly loyal to
the new leader and also have been a backer of the “Leave” campaign.
The formation of a new Brexit department with a secretary of state at
its helm will be one of May’s first announcements, her office said
late Tuesday.

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leader of Somalia's Shabaab jihadist group Ahmed Diriye described Turkey as "the enemy of the nation" and accused foreign peacekeeping forces of plundering the country, in an audio message
Law & Politics

"Somalia is under the occupation of invading Christian crusaders. The
so-called international community deceived the Somali society to
accept that the Ethiopian and other AMISOM (African Union Mission in
Somalia) forces are peacekeepers while their aim is to conquer the
Somali territories, in order to plunder its resources," he added.

- 'Enemy of the nation' -

"The Turkish government is the enemy of the nation, today Somalia's
economy is in total collapse because of their intervention... Turkey
has invaded this country economically... They have taken control of
the Somalia economy and all they want is to keep the nation in

Turkey has significantly increased its role in the country in recent
years, playing an active part in reconstruction efforts and supporting
humanitarian projects. Turkish businesses manage both Somalia's main
port and Mogadishu's airport.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Mogadishu in June,
inking several development deals and opening "one of the largest
Turkish embassies in the world".

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Yen Rallies, Halting 2-Day Drop, on Suga Helicopter Money Denial
International Trade

The yen rallied against major peers after its worst rout since 2014
this week after Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters
it’s not true that the government was considering so-called helicopter
money, prompting local equities to pare gains.

Japan’s currency trimmed a two-day loss that sent it down 4 percent
after Suga’s comments doused speculation that surfaced following a
Sankei newspaper report officials are considering direct money
transfers as a policy option. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged on
Monday to compile a stimulus package, boosting bets the Bank of Japan
would endorse the government action by expanding easing at its meeting
later this month.

“The helicopter comment is what’s panicking the market right now,”
said Stephen Innes, a senior trader at Oanda Corp. in Singapore.
“There’s some profit taking.”

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1065
Dollar Index 96.41
Japan Yen 104.16
Swiss Franc 0.9887
Pound 1.3308
Aussie 0.7602
India Rupee 67.145
South Korea Won 1146.21
Brazil Real 3.2961
Egypt Pound 8.8804
South Africa Rand 14.4021

Sterling 1 Month Chart INO 1.3312


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Candidate @moise_katumbi for DRC president said Monday he was poisoned as part of a government plot to kill him

In an interview with The Associated Press, Moise Katumbi said he was
roughed up by police in May who injected him with an unknown substance
outside a courthouse in the city of Lubumbashi.

"Their plan was to kill me," Katumbi said, "because they are scared
about my popularity."

Katumbi said the directions came from the highest levels of Congo's
government, but he did not provide details about whom he specifically
believes was responsible.

Katumbi hadn't discussed the circumstances of his illness. He told the
AP that he needed oxygen for a week to help him breathe. The substance
caused a blood infection, Katumbi said, and he pledged to release
laboratory results when tests are complete.

"I'm going to show to everyone, to tell them what is going on in the
Congo," Katumbi said. "This is not anymore politics."


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A ruthless general called 'King Paul' may be behind South Sudan's recent conflict QUARTZ AFRICA

When fighting broke out between the bodyguards of South Sudan’s
president and vice president on July 8 just as the two were meeting to
discuss diffusing tensions, neither leader was able to explain why.
Two days later, almost 300 people—including soldiers, civilians, and
UN peacekeepers—have been killed in the capital of Juba. Both
president Salva Kiir and vice president Riek Machar blame each other
for instigating the violence.

Their ignorance and confusion is a sign that neither leader has any
real influence over their rival factions. Kiir has been increasingly
seen as a lame duck president. Machar, Kiir’s former vice president
turned rebel leader, also lacks resources to command his forces, a
shaky coalition of Kiir defectors and local militias.

“Between the collapse of oil prices and the destruction they
themselves wrought in the civil war, South Sudan is so destitute that
there are no resources with which the country’s rulers might employ to
bring their followers to heel,” J. Peter Pham, director of the Africa
Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington, told the New York Times.

The real force behind the last few days of violence, according to
South Sudan expert Clémence Pinaud, from the University of Indiana,
may be the feared military general Paul Malong, head of the Sudan
People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and former governor of Northern Bahr
El Ghazal, a state in the northwest. Malong, known as King Paul among
his supporters, has a vast patronage network cemented by dozens of
marriages—he has between 45 and 87 wives (pdf, p.19).

Malong has long been thought to be the real base of power in Juba—some
say that president Kiir cannot openly challenge his general—and
interested in seizing power over the government for himself.

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Killings Force Biggest African Companies to Close in South Sudan

The biggest banks and insurers in Africa, including Old Mutual Plc and
Standard Bank Group Ltd., are temporarily closing operations and
evacuating staff after violence between rival political factions in
South Sudan’s capital, Juba, left at least 272 people dead.

The fighting disrupted operations of Standard’s CfC Stanbic Bank in
Juba and action had to be taken to protect employees, the
Johannesburg-based lender, Africa’s biggest by assets, said in an
e-mailed response to questions on Tuesday. The branch will reopen
“once the situation improves,” it said.

Old Mutual, which has a presence in South Sudan through its
controlling stake in UAP Holdings Ltd., has shuttered operations, a
spokesman for Africa’s biggest insurer said by e-mail. The
London-based company is also planning to evacuate expatriate staff and
local employees and their families, he said.

KCB Group Ltd., owner of Kenya’s largest bank by assets, has also been
forced cut back on branch operations in South Sudan, the Nairobi-based
lender said. KCB, which operates in all of South Sudan’s 10 states and
was the first regional lender to open up in 2005, has moved all staff
to safety, the bank said.

Equity Group Holdings Ltd., Kenya’s biggest bank by market value,
declined to comment.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +3.66% 2016

52,547.52 +377.15 +0.72%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.4021 [ZAR repelled by
14.20 range highs]


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +6.44% 2016


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IMF Says Nigeria's Economy Will Probably Contact This Year

“I think there is a high likelihood that the year 2016 as a whole will
be a contractionary year,” Gene Leon, the fund’s resident
representative in Nigeria, said in an interview in the capital, Abuja,
on July 8. While the economy should look better in second half of the
year, growth will probably not “be sufficiently fast, sufficiently
rapid to be able to negate the outcome of” the first and second
quarters, he said.

Africa’s largest economy shrunk by 0.4 percent in the three months
through March, the first contraction in more than a decade, as oil
output and prices slumped and the approval of spending plans for 2016
were delayed. A currency peg and foreign-exchange trading
restrictions, which were removed last month after more than a year,
led to shortages of goods from gasoline to milk and contributed to the
contraction in the first quarter.

If growth falls to zero percent “then that’s a huge gap the country
has to fill,” Leon said. If expenditure stays as planned, and revenue
is less due to the lack of growth “then we should see not smaller but
potentially a larger deficit,” he said.

The naira, which as pegged at 197-199 per dollar until June 17,
strengthened 0.1 percent to 282.33 per dollar at 3:13 p.m. the
commercial capital, Lagos.

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Disconnect with managers behind millenials job hop @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

Kenyan companies are unable to attract and retain qualified young
talent due to a widening disconnect between what employers and the
millennials — young employees born after 1980 — perceive to be a
favourable working environment.

This is according to new research by Deloitte, which warns that a
majority of Kenyan companies are not achieving their full potential as
young resentful employees, who feel isolated from the workplace, quit
in droves soon after employment.

“Businesses need to up their ante to meet the demands of this rapidly
evolving business ecosystem by creating a new management model,
developing a younger and increasingly inclusive leadership structure,”
said Deloitte East Africa senior manager for human capital Debbie

Various studies have defined millennials as those individuals born
between 1980 and 1995.

According to the Deloitte East Africa chief executive Sammy Onyango,
the need for employers to move with speed in engaging their young
employees is urgent as 70 per cent of tomorrow’s employees will be
millennials. Companies which fail to do so will face productivity

“As a leader, you need to begin with having a clear mission that
resonates with the millennials and then leverage on their love for
novelty to optimise productivity for the short duration that
millennials will be in your organisation,” Mr Onyango said citing
young people’s love for innovation and technology.

Deloitte on Tuesday launched a call to companies for its 2016 Best
Company To Work For Survey. Speaking at the event, Rich Management
chief executive Aly-Khan Satchu said employees’ engagement and
involvement in decision making is key to retaining millenials.

“We have a very young demographic. We have witnessed the arrival of
the information century — this young connected demographic is very
different from previous generations. It’s a little impatient. — it
wants stimulus — and the secret is to ignite passion, in my opinion,”
said Mr Satchu.

Ms Hollis said apart from money, the other vital top job satisfaction
factor is the opportunity for the millenials to use their skills and
abilities and feel engaged.

“Of course research has shown that money is a big factor in keeping
the millennials happy, but of key importance is that the millennials
want to be engaged more and therefore this has been shown to lead to
greater staff retention,” said Ms Hollis.

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Debbie Hollis @DeloitteKenya "We are seeing more and more so called Black Swan Events" #BCTWF2016 @VillaRosaKempin
Kenyan Economy

John Aglionby @johnaglionby @alykhansatchu @DeloitteKenya
@kenyanwalstreet Wouldn't that mean that they're not Black Swan events
since they're no longer so unusual?


Indeed. Debbie should have said "what were once Black Swan Events but
are now so frequent we call them white swans"


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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.251
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -4.69% 2016 [1st February 2016 Low]


138.87 -1.32 -0.94%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -10.42% 2016 [50 month Low]


3,619.67 -41.91 -1.14%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

The Dow Jones closed at new record and topping the previous record
close of 18312.39 hit May 19, 2015.
The Nikkei 225 [Japan stock Index] has enjoyed its best 3 days  in
over 6 years as Investors expect renewed vigour in Shinzo Abe's
''Abenomics'' program.
Some are speculating that Prime Minister Abe is set to introduce
''Helicopter'' money.
The Pound has been rebounding and was last trading at 1.3281 versus a
31 year Low of 1.2799 last week.
That Price might turn out to be the Buy of the Year.
EM Currencies like the Rand and the Brazil Real are at [trading] Range
Highs speaking to an increased appetite for Risk post Brexit.
The 10 Year Eurobond is just a whisker below a 2016 trading at a price
of 95.926 and a Yield of around 7.5%.
This Price allows the Cabinet Secretary to issue more bonds something
that many of his SSA Counterparts are essentially unable to do
The Nairobi Securities Exchange has been soft with the NSE20, for
example, closing at a 50 month low yesterday.
The International Bull Move might have started a positive Spill-over
today and finally.
The NSE20 eased 3.57 points to close at 3616.10 but is expected to
turnaround as early as tomorrow.
The Nairobi All Share bounced 0.30 points better to close at 139.17.
Equity Turnover clocked 569.005m.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom firmed +0.29% to close at 17.35 and traded 2.749m shares.
Buyers out paced Sellers by a ratio of 3.5 to 1 signalling the Base is
in and the price rebound builds from here.

Kenya Airways eased -2.38% to close at 4.10 and traded heavy volume
action of 6.212m which was possibly spurred by the news that the
Treasury had on-lent  Sh10 billion which The government had received
from China’s Afrexim Bank on behalf of KQ.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

Standard Chartered Bank surged +6.34% to close at a 3 week high of
218.00 and on heavy duty volume action of 611,500 shares worth
133.463m. When You account for the 1 for shares held Bonus that
Shareholders received, Standard Chartered has served up an
eye-watering +22.97% return so far in 2016 and that excludes a 17/=
dividend. Standard Chartered PLC is one of the few banks in the
developed world that has posted a positive return Year to date.
Standard Chartered has further to run, it is a beneficiary of the
Deposit Flight to Quality and nimble and sophisticated under Lamin
Manjang's stewardship.

@StanChartKE share price data here +22.97% in 2016


Kenya Commercial Bank which had become egregiously oversold rebounded
+2.34% to close at 32.75 and on good ticket size with 3.121m shares
worth 102.893m. ''KCB, which operates in all of South Sudan’s 10
states and was the first regional lender to open up in 2005, has moved
all staff to safety'' the bank said to Bloomberg. KCB is steeply
undervalued and is expected to rebound further.
Equity Bank eased back -0.63% to close at 39.25 and traded 3.168m shares.
I&M Bank was high-ticked +4.81% to close at 109.00 and traded just 100 shares.

BRITAM EA closed at 13.55 -0.37% and traded 6.333m shares [0.326% of
its shares]. BRITAM EA is +4.2% in 2016 and has improved as the market
got clarity over the Dawood Rabat stake which was confiscated by the
Mauritian Government and subsequently sold to PLUM LLP.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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July 2016

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