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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 27th of July 2016
 
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Putin, Erdogan Mend Ties as Post-Coup Turkey Turns Toward Russia
Law & Politics


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will have talks with Vladimir
Putin in Russia next month amid a rapid warming in relations following
the failed military coup in Turkey.

Russia “isn’t just our close and friendly neighbor, but also a
strategic partner,” Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, who
announced the Aug. 9 visit, said at talks in Moscow with his Russian
counterpart Arkady Dvorkovich on Tuesday. “Today, we are here to
normalize the situation and our relations as soon as possible and at
an accelerated pace since they were disrupted on November 24,” when
Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian
border, he said.

There’ll be no shortage of things to discuss at the summit between
Putin and Erdogan, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a
conference call Tuesday as he confirmed the Aug. 9 meeting in St.
Petersburg.

The attempt by elements of the military to oust Erdogan has
turbo-charged efforts to restore ties between Turkey and Russia that
were already under way after the crisis over the downing of the
warplane. The rapprochement may even lead to a political realignment
in the region. Erdogan has attracted strong criticism from the U.S.
and other NATO allies for a sweeping crackdown on tens of thousands of
alleged opponents in the military, civil service, business and
academia following the failed coup, while Turkey has heaped praise on
Russia for its support since the crisis erupted on July 15.

Simsek emphasized Turkey’s gratitude to Russia at the talks with
Dvorkovich on restoring economic ties, saying: “You supported
democracy, supported the government. Thank you very much.”

Russia and Turkey may form an alliance of “two developing economies
with an ideology of sovereign values as a union of the deceived
against the West,” Alexander Baunov, a senior associate at the
Carnegie Moscow Center, said in e-mailed comments. Violations of
rights and freedoms by the Erdogan government after the coup attempt
mean “moving away automatically from the West, which hasn’t yet
decided how much to tolerate in order not to alienate” Turkey, while
Russia isn’t concerned about such abuses and can show it’s ready to be
friends, he said.

Turkey received “unconditional support” from Russia over the coup
attempt, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview to
Haberturk TV on Monday.

Putin ordered the Russian government last month to begin lifting
sanctions imposed on Turkey after Erdogan sent a letter offering
“sympathy and profound condolences” to the family of the Russian pilot
who died when Turkey shot down his plane during the November mission
to bomb Islamic State militants in Syria.

Russia is “ready for constructive discussions” with Turkey and a
gradual improvement in relations that includes thawing frozen economic
ties and restoring tourism, Dvorkovich said.

Conclusions

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@RT_Erdogan pivots to Putin
Law & Politics


And that is why I characterised Vladimir Putin as a Geopolitical GrandMaster

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CanadianPM @CanadianPM Prime Minister Trudeau is looking for the next generation of Canadian leadership. Become a #PMYouthCouncil member!
Law & Politics


And indeed, Africa in general is a leader in the Muslim world, w/ more
Muslims in Africa than the Arab world - H.E. #SultanofSokoto
@AfricaUpClose

https://twitter.com/AfricaUpClose/status/758004973099687936

As the world experiences record temperatures, these places are
seeing the biggest spikes @wef

https://twitter.com/wef/status/758160312487055361

One of the two attackers who slit the throat of an elderly priest
in a church in France has been named as Adel Kermiche.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/normandy-church-attack-adel-kermich-isis-france-saint-etienne-du-rouvray-jacques-hamel-a7157316.html

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0995
Dollar Index 97.20
Japan Yen 105.50
Swiss Franc 0.9939
Pound 1.3093
Aussie 0.7485
India Rupee 67.165
South Korea Won 1135.33
Brazil Real 3.2774
Egypt Pound 8.8812
South Africa Rand 14.2868

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A BOJ 'Mega Surprise' Could Come Without Boosting Stimulus @business
International Trade


In the roulette game of Bank of Japan policy forecasting, most players
are betting on Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to double down on some or all
of his current three main policy tools on Friday.

If he follows through on those calls, that would mark the first time
that Kuroda, a former head of currency policy at the Finance Ministry,
would fail to surprise market participants. He unleashed a much bigger
framework than anticipated in April 2013, unexpectedly expanded it in
October 2014 and dumbfounded observers in January 2016 by unveiling a
negative interest rate tactic that he had previously dismissed.

Given the premium that the BOJ chief has placed on affecting
expectations in his battle to eradicate Japan’s "deflationary
mindset," some are warning that just doing more of the same when
that’s what most anticipate won’t be enough to address waning
inflation trends.

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Is Mugabe facing his Waterloo? Mail and Guardian
Africa


Mugabe was facing “an endgame of tragic dimensions”, Dumisani Muleya,
the editor of the Zimbabwe weekly, The Independent, said on Friday.

”If the war veterans join forces with the national resistance movement
driven by civic groups and backed by churches and opposition parties,
Mugabe, already on the ropes and hanging on to power by [his]
fingernails, could soon face his Waterloo.”

Conclusions

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25-JUL-2016 President Buhari's Kind Canute -like fight to maintain the price of the naira for more than a whole year was a monstrous policy failure.
Africa


President Buhari’s King Canute-like fight to maintain the price of the
naira for more than a whole year was a monstrous policy failure. He
should have devalued the naira on his first day of taking office when
his political capital was sky high. The delay was unconscionable and
the cost being exacted on the Nigerian economy has been brutal.

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How to Wreak Africa's Most Promising Economy Bloomberg
Africa


Even by the standards of Africa, it’s been a wild ride for Mozambique.
There’s little sign it will end well.

Blowing through more than $2 billion of borrowed money just as the
currency and the price of commodity exports plunged has left the
former Portuguese colony with near-empty coffers. Its creditors, which
bought debt sold by Credit Suisse Group AG and VTB Group, may be left
holding the bag. Nor does it help that the International Monetary Fund
is raising questions about the government’s transparency and its
finances.

“Mozambique is not in a state of development where it can maintain a
credible foothold in the global financial markets,” said Jan Dehn,
head of research at Ashmore Group Plc, which manages $53 billion of
emerging market assets and opted not to buy Mozambican bonds. “It was
more like, someone got an idea one day to issue a bond.”

Standard Bank Group said Mozambique could turn into the next Qatar.
Growth since the end of a 16-year civil war in 1992 had averaged 7.4
percent.

Mozambique’s borrowing produced a few surprises. A loan for $850
million, for instance, went to a new state-owned tuna-fishing company.
What the offering documents didn’t say was that the government would
also use some of those funds to purchase search and rescue and
surveillance vessels. And two other loans from 2013 and 2014, totaling
$1.4 billion, weren’t disclosed to parliament or to the IMF and were
only discovered in April.

Mozambique was in much more debt than had been known, at a time when
the currency was plunging, gas exploration was delayed and prices of
gas, coal and aluminum exports down.

The April disclosure of the loans caused the IMF to halt a $286
million bailout loan signed only last October. Managing Director
Christine Lagarde in May accused the government of using debt for
“concealing corruption.” Western donors including the U.K. and
Portugal have suspended about $500 million in aid for this year.

The nation missed an interest payment and yields on its dollar bonds
have almost doubled in the past year, to 18.25 percent. The government
has frozen spending aside from salaries, foreign investment has
plummeted and companies are laying off workers, if not shutting down.
Inflation has soared to 20 percent, which raises the risk of riots
over higher food prices, according to Standard Chartered Plc.

The crisis is visible on the main streets and in the shopping centers
of Maputo, the capital, once a haven for wealthy expats. In Shopping
24, a multipurpose building opened in 2014, newspapers are pasted over
the empty glass showcases. Many stores are vacant.

“It’s difficult to do business,” said Abdul Suleimane, whose shop
sells computers, keyboards and other accessories and is suffering from
the high prices of products he imports. “I don’t know how long we can
hang on.”

Meanwhile, the currency, the metical, has lost half its value against
the dollar since the start of 2015, making Mozambique’s hard-currency
debt payments more expensive. The swapped Eurobond, the country’s only
sovereign issue, has lost 4.2 per percent in the past six months. It’s
the only one of 66 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg whose dollar
bonds have made losses in that period.

The yield soared to 19.2 percent in June. Among sovereign issuers,
only those of Venezuela, mired in an economic crisis, are higher.
Moody’s downgraded Mozambique two levels to Caa3 on July 8, saying it
doubted the government’s willingness to honor loans at state-owned
firms.

“Mozambique was a nice story,” said Victor Lopes, an analyst at
Standard Chartered in London. “They had high growth and massive gas
discoveries. But it’s got worse and worse.”

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -3.27% 2016 [+1.57% yesterday @Safaricomltd refers]

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

140.93 +2.18 +1.57%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -13.53% 2016 [FRESH 51 MONTH CLOSING LOW]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,494.03 -14.46 -0.41%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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July 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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