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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Wednesday 24th of August 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Macro Thoughts

Home Thoughts

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Lake Elmenteita @SerenaHotels #Kenya #Africa 1,234 days ago
Africa
is a very beautiful place and I want to go back
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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1290
Dollar Index 94.66
Japan Yen 100.30
Swiss Franc 0.9640
Pound 1.3188
Aussie 0.7607
India Rupee 67.145
South Korea Won 1121.70
Brazil Real 3.2368
Egypt Pound 8.8789
South Africa Rand 14.1050

Sterling 3m Chart INO 1.3184 [I am cautiously bullish]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +4.47% 2016
Africa


This @dailymaverick story below sent the Rand into a Tail-Spin

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BREAKING: SARS Wars Endgame - Hawks order Pravin Gordhan and others to 'present' themselves Daily Maverick @dailymaverick
Africa


Gordhan has for some time, since his reinstatement as Minister of
Finance in December after President Jacob Zuma's disastrous firing of
Nhlanhla Nene, been viewed as an obstacle thwarting the interests of
individuals linked to Zuma including SAA's Dudu Myeni, current SARS
Commissioner Tom Moyane as well as the Gupta family's interest in the
country's nuclear deal, among countless others.

In May Gordhan released a public statement saying that earlier reports
of his arrest had been distressing for him and his family and urged
South Africans to “protect the integrity of the treasury”.

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"We see the rest of the African continent as the source of much of our future growth." Shoprite
Africa


“We are delighted with the overall results we have achieved on the
back of a record one billion transactions in a single year, but
especially with those from beyond South Africa’s borders,” Chief
Executive Officer Whitey Basson said in an e-mailed statement. “We see
the rest of the African continent as the source of much of our future
growth.”

Shoprite shares have gained 39 percent this year, the best performing
non-mining company on the FTSE/JSE Africa Top 40 Index.

The retailer trades in 14 other countries on the continent, and,
despite weaker economic growth due to lower commodity prices, sales in
this segment expanded by 32.6 percent compared with 10.9 percent at
home.

Africa's two largest oil producers, Angola and Nigeria, were hit by
foreign exchange shortages as earnings from crude sales collapsed.

But Shoprite's Angolan business produced its sharpest growth, as the
retailer was able to replenish goods while other retailers were
hamstrung by foreign exchange rules.

"Access to dollars allowed us to have stock on the shelves," said
Basson, adding that the local currency was reinvested and the excess
profits in Angola had paid for new store openings.

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Egypt: IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on a Three-Year US$12 Billion Extended Fund Facility @IMFNews
Africa


Staff-level agreement is subject to approval by IMF’s Executive Board,
which is expected to consider the request in coming weeks.
EFF supports the authorities’ comprehensive economic reform program as
approved by the parliament.
Program aims to improve the functioning of the foreign exchange
markets, bring down budget deficit and debt, and raise growth. It also
includes strengthening the social safety net to protect the poor and
vulnerable groups. Social protection is a cornerstone in the program.

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Nigeria asks banks to give 60 pct of their forex to manufacturing firms
Africa


Nigeria's central bank has asked commercial lenders to allocate 60
percent of their foreign exchange purchases to manufacturers, in a bid
to boost their ability to pay for imports and boost the economy.

Widespread dollar shortages, caused by a fall in oil revenues, have
hit manufacturers' ability to import raw materials and spare parts,
forcing many plants to close.

The central bank said in a circular it wanted to encourage the
production of local goods by asking banks to allocate more hard
currency to industrial firms.

"Authorised dealers (banks) are hereby directed to dedicate at least
60 percent of their total foreign exchanger purchases from all sources
to end-users strictly for the purposes of importation of raw
materials, plant and machinery," the bank said in a circular dated Aug
22 and seen by Reuters on Tuesday.

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TPS Serena Hotels reports H116 EPS [-43cents] Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           20.00
Total Shares Issued:          182174108.00
Market Capitalization:        3,643,482,160
EPS:             -1.63
PE:                 -12.270

TPS manages 15 hotels and resorts across East Africa under the Serena
brand name.

H1 Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589%
H1 Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs.
182.432m -6.589%
H1 Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279%
H1 Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs.
[213.881m] -11.266%
H1 Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824%
H1 Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764%
H1 Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs.
[112.010m] -30.727%
EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508%
Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260%
Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs.
[318.273m] +103.974%

Company Commentary

International leisure bookings for the Kenya safari circuit recorded
slow recovery during the Fist Half of 2016.
Current indications for the Kenyan safari business segment look much
healthier than the past 2 years particularly for the Mara and the
Laikipia regions from July 2016
Kenyan coastal region will continue to record low occupancies
Serena Tanzania and Serena Uganda are expected to record satisfactory
performance on both leisure and corporate market segments during 2016
Peak Season [July to October 2016] and the rest of the year is
expected to be positive
Included in the results for H116 are repairs and maintenance costs
that were above 2015 levels - various overhauls on northern circuit
properties Tanzania
In the course of 2016 Serena commenced refurbishment of Nairobi Serena
and extension of Kampala Serena
No Interim Dividend

Conclusions


Substantial improvement Year on Year but the key issue is will the
Rebound Trajectory steepen.
I thought the Coast might start to see a Rebound by now given the
Travails in some destinations like Egypt, Turkey etc but there appears
to be no discernible spill-over
This is a good entry level on an 18 month horizon.

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The Serena The Star
Kenyan Economy


MY memories of the Serena start in Mombasa years back when the
managing director Mahmoud Jan Mohamed was the manager. I was then a
teenager and remember losing my heart to a girl, who would beat me at
table tennis, in a bikini. That table tennis Table is still there. The
Serena brand has always been sprinkled with a fairy dust and reminds
me of happy; joyful; carefree: halcyon days of youth. That brand
equity was appreciated last Thursday at the Grosvenor House where The
Serena Hotels won the “ Best Hospitality, Travel and Tourism in
Africa award at the African Business Awards.

And now, Serena is clearly staking out a much more forward and
offensive position across the region and as you know by now, I sense
the Eastern sea board of Africa is at a tipping Point [The oil and gas
refers but just as important is the late cycle arrival of the
information century which is the entry ticket for Africa to join in
the c21st That Arrival of the Information Century is very grass roots
because anyone with an Internet enabled mobile phone has an entry
ticket and therefore, I see the expansion of the brand as timely and
riding a rising tide. The brand is established. Its got breadth, its
not a mom and pop operation. Sure, lots of folks are coming for Serena
lunch but their longevity, their ability to navigate has been proven
and their DNA make them a formidable competitor.

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@FlameTreeGroup reports H116 EPS 0.50 a share Earnings here
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:
Closing Price:           3.95
Total Shares Issued:          161866804.00
Market Capitalization:        639,373,876
EPS:             1.1
PE:                 3.591

H1 Revenue 1.202089149b vs. 1.114323376b +7.876%
H1 Cost of sales [753.268442m] vs. [746.059485m] +0.966%
H1 Gross profit 448.820707m vs. 368.263891m +21.875%
H1 Selling and distribution costs [175.204317m] vs. [98.671692m] +77.563%
H1 Administrative expenses [123.335764m] vs. [124.586679m] -1.004%
H1 Operating profit before gain on disposal of property, plant and
equipment 127.970077m vs. 95.790657m +33.593%
H1 Gain on disposal of property, plant and equipment 0.786620m vs. –
H1 Finance costs [43.771777m] vs. [19.620598m] +123.091%
H1 Profit before tax 84.980920m vs. 76.170059m +11.567%
H1 Profit for the period 80.528312m vs. 81.211426m -0.841%
H1 Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations
[9.814609m] vs. 36.877608m -126.614%
EPS 0.50 vs. 0.50 –
Shareholders’ funds 698.334070m vs. 525.875391m +32.795%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of June 30th [105.677692m]

Company Commentary

diversified manufacturer and distributor of plastic tanks cosmetics and snacks
+34% EBITDA to 128.8m versus 95.79m

CEO Heril Bangera said ''FTGH delivered a strong performance in the
first 6 months of 2016 in a very tough economic environment. The
increase in total operating expenses is attributable to rigorous
advertising and marketing campaigns geared to increase revenue in the
plastics and FMCH divisions''
In january 2016 the group acquired Suziebeauty line of colour cosmetic
brand...venturing into personal care prestige portfolio.
FTGH operates across two business verticals, manufacturing and
trading, in six countries. Its strategy is to build a diversified
portfolio of African-manufactured brands for African consumers,
covering plastics, cosmetics and food in multiple markets and
verticals.

Conclusions


On a PE of 3.591 - Thats seriously a price in disequilibrium.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.382
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg +0.42% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

146.31 +1.58 +1.09%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -14.80% 2016 [52 month closing Low]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,442.87 -13.34 -0.39%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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August 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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