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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 15th of September 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasts a three-percentage-point U.S. rate increase during a Federal Reserve rate tightening cycle continuing through 2019
Africa


Derivatives traders are pricing in roughly 50 basis points of
tightening over the same period, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Home Thoughts

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Astronomers discover signs of giant planet being born in star's dust cloud
Africa


TW Hydrae is one of the closest young stars to Earth ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO)

We come spinning out of nothingness, scattering stars like dust Rumi

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The World's Coolest Pop-Up Bar Is Serving Tequila and Hot Dogs
Africa


How do you get some of the world’s very best chefs together in one place?

It turns out that you mix some drinks and let them make hot dogs.

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U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Clinton's Poll Trend Echoing Brexit's 'Remain
Law & Politics


Hillary Clinton trailing Donald Trump by 5 ppts in Bloomberg’s Ohio
poll was a shocker, so much so that it shook the Mexican Peso. What it
wasn’t, however, was an outlier.

Elections analyst Nate Silver—who has upped Trump’s odds of winning to
34.4% in his FiveThirtyEight site’s polls-only forecast—says on
Twitter he sees “echoes of Brexit here”

“Clinton’s narrowing lead over Trump is a lot like Remain’s over Leave
at this point” in UK’s vote on departing the European Union

“That’s NOT to predict Trump will finish well (as Leave did). But I
see people making excuses to treat a clear possibility as a remote
one”

Bloomberg’s Ohio poll was a blow to Clinton after she enjoyed polling
advantages nationally and in most battleground states—including
Ohio—during much of August before a September in which she has
struggled and more Republican voters may be unifying around Trump

Mexico’s peso weakened and the country’s stocks fell after the poll in
Ohio, a state that has backed the winning presidential candidate in
every election since 1964

Kyle Kondik, analyst at Sabato’s Crystal Ball and author of a book on
Ohio’s presidential voting, notes divergence in likely voter party ID
from other surveys and says Democratic enthusiasm “may stink right
now” and affect response rates

He says that the question is if enthusiasm gap continues for Clinton
through election; “If so, very bad for HRC”

read more




Colin Powell, in Hacked Emails, Shows Scorn for Trump and Irritation at Clinton NYT
Law & Politics


But a hack of Mr. Powell’s email this week has ripped away the
diplomatic jargon and political niceties to reveal his unvarnished
disdain of Donald J. Trump as a “national disgrace,” his personal
peeves with Hillary Clinton and his lingering, but still very raw,
anger with the Republican colleagues with whom he so often clashed a
decade ago.

There has been an expectation that Mr. Powell, who waited until the
final weeks to endorse Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, would do the
same for Mrs. Clinton this year. But in one 2014 email released
online, Mr. Powell lamented that while he respected Mrs. Clinton, he
would “rather not have to vote for her,” describing the Democratic
presidential nominee as having “a long track record, unbridled
ambition, greedy, not transformational.”

The emails make clear that if Mr. Powell endorses Mrs. Clinton, he
will be motivated by intense feelings about Mr. Trump, whom he also
called an “international pariah.”

“H.R.C. could have killed this two years ago by merely telling
everyone honestly what she had done and not tie me into it,” Mr.
Powell wrote late last month, referring to Mrs. Clinton by her
initials. “I told her staff three times not to try that gambit. I had
to throw a mini-tantrum at a Hamptons party to get their attention.
She keeps tripping into these ‘character’ minefields.”

he accuses “the idiot Rummy” of being disloyal to both President
Bushes. In another email, Mr. Powell calls Dick Cheney, the former
vice president, and his daughter Liz Cheney “idiots and a spent force
peddling a book that ain’t going nowhere.”

“No need to debate it with you now, but Trump is a national disgrace
and an international pariah,” Mr. Powell wrote in June, noting the
criticism of Mr. Trump by several prominent conservatives. “He is in
the process of destroying himself, no need for Dems to attack him.”

read more


Philippines' War on Drugs: David Ingles @DavidInglesTV
Law & Politics


1,105 killed by police
2,035 killings under investigation
~17,000 drug users, pushers arrested
712,848 surrender

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17-SEP-2012 ::The Madding Crowd
Law & Politics


Now set these events alongside these comments from the US army war
college quarterly 1997. The US officer assigned to the deputy chief of
staff (Intelligence), charged with defining the future of warfare,
wrote "One of the defining bifurcations of the future will be the
conflict between information masters and information victims."

This information warfare will not be couched in the rationale of
geopolitics, the author suggests, but will be "spawned" - like any
Hollywood drama - out of raw emotions. "Hatred, jealousy, and greed -
emotions, rather than strategy - will set the terms of [information
warfare] struggles".

Now what are the consequences of this new 21st century madding crowd?
A madding crowd which can be inflamed by a fellow with a camera and an
account with YouTube.

There are plenty of flame throwers in a population of seven billion.
Bacile has shown that the 21st century equivalent of throwing the
match is a camera and the knowledge of how to upload content onto
Youtube. The consequences of throwing a Match onto a tinderbox are
entirely unpredictable, by their nature. This extreme unpredictability
is evidenced by the fact that we have parked two gun boats off the
Benghazi coast, ready to bomb the very folks to whose help we went to
stop Gaddafi from bombing them.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.1242
Dollar Index 95.34
Japan Yen 102.41
Swiss Franc 0.9735
Pound 1.3244
Aussie 0.7460
India Rupee 66.975
South Korea Won 1126.85
Brazil Real 3.3434
Egypt Pound 8.8804
South Africa Rand 14.3385

Sterling 1 Year Chart INO 1.3244 [Buy with a 1.2750 STOP]

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_GBPUSD&v=d12&t=f&a=50&w=1

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Congo to Appoint Caretaker Government Until Delayed Election
Africa


Democratic Republic of Congo elections will be delayed until the voter
register is updated and a new government will be appointed to run the
nation until the vote, a joint delegation of the ruling party and some
opposition members said.

President Joseph Kabila will remain in power until the vote is held
and will in the mean time reorganize the government to include members
of the opposition, Justice Minister and ruling party member Alexis
Thambwe told reporters in the capital, Kinshasa, on Wednesday.

“We will manage the country together,” he said.

An opposition delegation led by Vital Kamerhe said it will rejoin
formal negotiations on reorganizing the elections on Thursday. The
group suspended participation in the talks on Monday, citing
disagreement with a plan by Kabila’s ruling coalition to hold local
elections before a vote for the executive, a process which they said
could take years.

Thambwe’s announcement may anger many of Congo’s largest opposition
parties, including Etienne Tshisekedi’s Union for Democracy and the
coalition of parties backing presidential hopeful Moise Katumbi, who
have boycotted the talks. The parties insist that Kabila must step
down when his second term ends on Dec. 19 as required by the
constitution.

“Nothing justifies that Kabila stays one day longer than Dec. 19,”
UDPS spokesman Felix Tshisekedi said in an interview in Kinshasa.

The delegation did not define how long the revision of the voter
register would take and how long the presidential vote will be
delayed. The national electoral body has previously said it wouldn’t
be completed until July 2017, meaning Kabila will remain in power
until at least October 2017.

read more





Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +16.08% 2016
Africa


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.49% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -10.84% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

Obama lifts economic sanctions from Ivory Coast, citing progress

https://www.yahoo.com/news/obama-lifts-economic-sanctions-ivory-coast-citing-progress-141925231.html?ref=gs

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Equity says mobile-based loans to be capped at 14.5pc - This is a highly disruptive move on the part of Dr. Mwangi -
Kenyan Economy


“Equity Bank has interpreted this [the new law] to include all credit
facilities extended to customers by such institutions. This includes
loans through mobile phones or through other third party platforms or
collaborations with mobile network operators (MNOs), credit card
facilities as well as micro finance loans,” said Mr Mwangi.

read more


Equity Group share price data here -31.75% Total Return Basis 2016
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  0.50/-
Closing Price:           25.50
Total Shares Issued:          3702777020.00
Market Capitalization:        94,420,814,010
EPS:             4.59
PE:                 5.556

Loans and advances to customers (net) 269.032284b vs. 236.915137b +13.556%
Customer deposits 319.230725b vs. 299.696865b +6.518%
H1 Total interest income 24.095743b vs. 19.266418b +25.066%
H1 Customer deposits expense [3.873219b] vs. [3.113287b] +24.409%
H1 Net interest income 21.232759b vs. 15.504370b +36.947%
H1 Other fees and commissions income 5.244938b vs. 4.864393b +7.823%
H1 Total Non Interest Income 10.847924b vs. 10.806126b +21.931%
Profit [loss] before tax and exceptional items 14.230076b vs.
12.095391b +17.649%
Profit [loss] after tax and exceptional items 10.111308b vs. 8.568217b +18.009%
EPS 2.68 vs. 1.16 +131.034%
Gross NPL and advances 12.931302b vs. 10.862262b +19.048%
Net NPL 5.958126b vs. 4.070263b +46.382%

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Uhuru secures deal for KCB entry into Somalia after visit @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy


State House said in a statement that President Kenyatta won the
concession from Somalia’s leadership for KCB to open an office in
Mogadishu before the end of the year.

KCB Group and Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA) had applied for an
operating licence in the troubled country along Gulf lenders seeking
to operate in Somalia, where only four per cent of the population is
banked.

“President Kenyatta secured an agreement from the Somali government to
allow Kenya Commercial Bank to open an office in Mogadishu before the
end of the year. The leaders also agreed that the two countries will
continue their cooperation in security while Kenya will help Somalia
strengthen its public service,” said the press statement.

KCB, which already has a presence in Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan,
Rwanda and Burundi, has been considering entry into Somalia,
Democratic Republic of Congo and Djibouti under its strategic plan.

read more


@KCBGroup share price data here -32.57% on a Total Return Basis 2016
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  1/-
Closing Price:           27.50
Total Shares Issued:          2984227692.00
Market Capitalization:        82,066,261,530
EPS:             6.086
PE:                 4.519

H1 Group Total Assets 559.941978b versus 566.609777b -1.17%
H1 Loans and advances income 25.732594b vs. 21.110584b 21.894%
H1 Total income interest 31.637625b vs. 25.853935b 22.371%
H1 Customer deposits expense [8.374979b] vs. [5.879798b] 42.437%
H1 Total interest expeses [9.108512b] vs. [6.407812b] 42.147%
H1 Net interest income [loss] 22.529113b vs. 19.446123b 15.854%
H1 Loan loss provision [2.071274b] vs. [2.593397b] -20.133%
H1 Total other operating expenses [17.834261b] vs. [17.512381b] 1.838%
H1 Profit [loss] before tax and exceptional items 15.095002b vs.
13.202452b 14.335%
H1 Profit after tax and exceptional items 10.500253b vs. 9.241716b 13.618%
EPS 6.94 vs. 6.11 13.584%
Total NPL and advances 28.708442b vs. 20.863370b 37.602%
Net NPL and advances 14.174766b vs. 10.966571b 29.254%

read more



Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -9.86% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

131.34 -0.24 -0.18%

@Transcentury share price data +147.77% since 25th August

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NTg%3D

E.A. Portland Cement @EAPCC -55.61% in 2016

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=MzM%3D

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -20.27% 2016 [105.05 points above Multi Year
Low from 30th August]

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,221.87 -1.93 -0.06%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today

The Nairobi All Share firmed 0.29 points to close at 131.63. The
Nairobi All Share whilst -9.65% Year To Date has rebounded +1.52%
since closing at a 2014 low on the 5th of this month.
The Nairobi NSE20 Index firmed +17.93 points to close at 3239.80. The
NSE20 Index is -19.82% Year To Date but has rebounded +3.94% since
closing at a 2011 Low on August 30th.
Equity Turnover clocked 396.401m



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Safaricom closed unchanged at 18.90 and traded 1.710m shares.
Safaricom has been flat over the last 2 sessions and that is probably
a consequence of Investors considering Visa's recent entry into
M-Pesa's space. Visa might nibble at the edges [higher end] but that
will be about it.

WPP-Scangroup rallied +4.68% to close at 19.00 a 7 week High.
WPP-Scangroup traded 21,600 shares. WPP-Scangroup has rallied +13.43%
in September and recent gains in Ghana confirm a geographical
extension into West Africa.

TPS Serena is the only ''Tourism Pure-Play'' available to Investors
and traded 1.018m shares and closed unchanged at 18.00. TPS Serena
traded 1.018m shares and there has been significantly elevated volume
of late at these depressed price levels of -28.00% Year To Date.

Kenya Airways firmed +1.28% to close at a 5 week high of 3.95. Kenya
Airways is +14.49% this month.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


State House said in a statement that President Kenyatta won the
concession from Somalia’s leadership for KCB to open an office in
Mogadishu before the end of the year.

“President Kenyatta secured an agreement from the Somali government to
allow Kenya Commercial Bank to open an office in Mogadishu before the
end of the year. The leaders also agreed that the two countries will
continue their cooperation in security while Kenya will help Somalia
strengthen its public service,” said the press statement.

KCB, which already has a presence in Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan,
Rwanda and Burundi, has been considering entry into Somalia,
Democratic Republic of Congo and Djibouti under its strategic plan.

Kenya Commercial Bank eased -3.63% to close at 26.50 and traded 3.647m
shares worth 97.469m. KCB is -34.84% Year to Date on a Total Return
Basis, The Banks have been at the sharp End of the Sell-Off since the
Interest rate Capping Bill was signed into Law and this is a
''Schumpeter'' moment but KCB shareholders need to take heart that the
CEO intuitively understands the c21st landscape.

Equity announced that mobile-based loans will be capped at 14.5pc.

“Equity Bank has interpreted this [the new law] to include all credit
facilities extended to customers by such institutions. This includes
loans through mobile phones or through other third party platforms or
collaborations with mobile network operators (MNOs), credit card
facilities as well as micro finance loans,” said Mr Mwangi.

“You can’t partner with a non-bank institution - a fintech or telcom –
and pretend you can be outside this law" Dr. James Mwangi of Equity
via Kenyanwallstreet

This is an aggressive move by Dr. Mwangi. Equity closed unchanged at
25.50 and was the most actively traded share at the Exchange with
3.915m shares worth 99.851m. Equity is -31.75% Year To Date on a Total
Return Basis.

Just Prior to filing this Dr. James Mwangi was quoted by Bloomberg as follows

At least 30 of Kenya’s 42 lenders may have difficulty paying the
minimum for deposits as demanded by a new law on interest rates that
came into effect on Sept. 14.

“Tier II banks and those with low deposit rates will struggle to
attract deposits, will struggle to lend,” Mwangi told analysts at a
briefing in the capital, Nairobi, referring to mid-sized lenders.
Micro-finance institutions and savings and credit co-operative
societies, or Saccos, “will struggle to defend their market share.”

“Banks refusing deposits are shooting themselves in the head, not
leg,” he said. “Banks can only solve this problem by volumes.”

The Stanlib Fahari-IREIT rallied +8.53% to close at 13.35.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


The parabolic Trajectory of Transcentury's price rebound flattened
today. Transcentury firmed +1.35% to close at 11.30 and that marks a
stupendous +151.11% rally since 25th August. Trans-Century is
allotting 93,776,173 new ordinary shares and 70,120 cumulative
redeemable preference shares for $20m. The Pricing of this allotment
to Kuramo Capital Management was the Trigger for the Price Rally.

EABL rallied +2.88% to close at 250.00 and traded 100,400 shares with
Buyers outpacing Sellers by a factor of 9 versus 1 signalling further
price gains are in hand.

KenGen firmed +1.48% to close at 6.85 a 16 week High. KenGen closed
the session trading at 7.00 +3.7% and given that it is emerging from a
long-entrenched price disequilibrium, this +14.166% run higher since
the start of the month has further to run.

East African Portland Cement which was -55.61% Year to date through
this morning, rebounded +8.43% to close at 22.50.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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September 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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