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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 20th of September 2016

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Normal Board - The Whole shebang
Prompt Board Next day settlement
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site


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19-SEP-2016 :: Markets May be Caught off Guard if Fed Hikes Rate this Week @TheStarKenya

The Fed meets this week.  The market has a September rate hike of 25
basis points priced at less than 20 per cent and just one rate hike
before year end priced marginally below 50 per cent. Its been a
groundhog day with the Fed who have barked endlessly but have done
little else. A September rate strike would catch the markets

With so many curve balls out there Paul Virilio’s ‘Wealth is the
hidden side of speed and speed the hidden side of wealth’, is
something to ponder.

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12-SEP-2016 :: "Relax," said the night man, "We are programmed to receive. You can check-out any time you like, But you can never leave! "@TheStarKenya

Therefore, my second trade of the year (my first was to be long, the
Yen from January) is to buy put options on 10- year bonds because this
is going to pop, and when it pops, the wizardry won’t work anymore,
and at that moment there is going to be one heck of a move.

Home Thoughts

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The Royal Hunt of the Sun is a 1964 play by Peter Shaffer that dramatizes the relation of two worlds entering in a conflict by portraying two characters: Atahuallpa Inca and Francisco Pizarro.

“Have you ever climbed a mountain in full armour? That's what we did,
him going first the whole way up a tiny path into the clouds, with
drops sheer on both sides into nothing. For hours we crept forward
like blind men, the sweat freezing on our faces, lugging skittery
leaking horses, and pricked all the time for the ambush that would tip
us into death. Each turn of the path it grew colder. The friendly
trees of the forest dropped away, and there were only pines. Then they
went too, and there just scrubby little bushes standing up in ice. All
round us the rocks began to whine the cold. And always above us, or
below us, those filthy condor birds, hanging on the air with great
tasselled wings....Four days like that; groaning, not speaking; the
breath a blade in our lungs. Four days, slowly, like flies on a wall;
limping flies, dying flies, up an endless wall of rock. A tiny army
lost in the creases of the moon.”
― Peter Shaffer, The Royal Hunt of the Sun

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Chateau de Versailles @CVersailles Until 30 October, discover the exhibition of @olafureliasson

The Versailles that I have been dreaming up is a place that empowers
everyone. It invites visitors to take control of the authorship of
their experience instead of simply consuming and being dazzled by the
grandeur. It asks them to exercise their senses, to embrace the
unexpected, to drift through the gardens, and to feel the landscape
take shape through their movement.

– Olafur Eliasson

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19-SEP-2016 Now the first thing to observe is that this is a two-horse race @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

The second thing to observe is that ‘event’ risk surely favours Trump.
Over the weekend a deafening explosion rocked New York, injuring 29
people, blowing out scores of windows and forcing the evacuation of at
least two buildings.  The blast went off in a 4-by-4-by-3-foot
construction dumpster outside the Townhouse Inn of Chelsea at 131 W.
23d St reported  e New York Post.  is time, the narrative behind the
explosion did not cross the threshold. Just imagine a situation a few
days before the vote, where the narrative crosses the threshold. In a
tightly fought race, such an ‘event’ is going to move the dial big
time in Trump’s favour, probably move the dial significantly further
than Nigel Farage’s poster showing a queue of migrants and refugees
moved the dial in favour of Brexit.

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19-SEP-2016 Its all about turnout (something Gabon's President Ali Bongo Ondimba worked out a while back) - @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

Bongo’s stronghold Haut-Ogooue province clocked a a 99.93 per cent
turnout versus a countrywide average of less than 50 per cent, with 95
per cent voting in favour of Bongo.

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19-SEP-2016 If Trump can turn on and turn out his base and Hillary can't, then this is a toss-up. @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics

Now where will the world be in the event of a President Trump? Who
really knows or can predict that? 34.4 per cent seems to be a trading

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Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton You want something to vote for, not just against:
Law & Politics

Optimism, not resentment.
Answers, not anger.
Ideas, not insults.
Bridges, not walls.

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View from UN Headquarters in NYC on Wednesday - complete with a rainbow. Next wk: world leaders arrive for #UNGA! @UN Sep 15
Law & Politics

@EU_Commission @UN & in New York during #UNGA


After long honeymoon, Canada's Trudeau faces tough choices Reuters World


International report #GuantanamoBay #Cuba @PhilipinDC RFI English


Syria Ceasefire Collapses in Wake of Weekend US Airstrikes


#ISIS beheading five civilians east #Syria on charges of ‘spying’


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What is different about suicide bombing in the wars currently being fought in the Middle East and beyond, is that the bombers are skilfully deployed in great numbers.
Law & Politics

The impact of many individuals wearing explosive vests or driving
vehicles packed with explosives on the battlefield can counter-balance
the other side’s control of the air and superiority in heavy weapons.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1173
Dollar Index 95.86
Japan Yen 101.80
Swiss Franc 0.9804
Pound 1.3038
Aussie 0.7543
India Rupee 67.025
South Korea Won 1120.37
Brazil Real 3.2725
Egypt Pound 8.8791
South Africa Rand 13.9992

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The world's best currency rally has lost its mojo. @Business
Emerging Markets

The currency soared 23 percent in the first half of the year on bets
then-President Dilma Rousseff would be ousted and a new administration
would get the country back on track. But as impeachment turned from
wishful thinking into reality -- with Rousseff officially thrown out
last month -- early hiccups in the new government and a dim outlook
for legislative measures sent the real lower, making it the
second-worst performer in Latin America since it reached a 13-month
high on Aug. 10.

Those challenges include an economy that’s forecast to contract 3.4
percent this year after shrinking 3.8 percent in 2015, inflation
that’s been above the midpoint of the central bank’s target for six
years, and record unemployment of 11.6 percent.

Morgan Stanley is keeping its bullish position on the currency, and
said Friday the recent dip in the real might be a good moment to buy,
even with the policy risk. The currency had declined 4.2 percent since
Aug. 10 to 3.2617 per dollar as of 12:46 p.m. in New York on Monday.
That has trimmed its gain this year to 21.5 percent.

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Ibovespa Climbs on Commodities With Correlation at 3-Month High
Emerging Markets

Brazil’s Ibovespa rose as iron-ore producer Vale SA and steelmaker
Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA followed gains in raw materials, helping
push the stock index’s correlation with commodities toward a
three-month high.

CSN, as Cia. Siderurgica is known, was the best performer on the
benchmark gauge after newspaper O Globo reported that it plans to sell
a stake in its mining unit to China’s CBSteel. The correlation between
the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Ibovespa was 0.62. A reading of
one would mean the two move in lockstep.

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May 2015 '"The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street"

PAUL Virilio (born 1932) is a French cultural theorist and urbanist.

In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack),
becomes in other words a producer of speed.’’

As we look around the world today, we can see a battle for the
‘street’ from the streets of Bujumbura to the streets of Baltimore. In
November last year, I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan
Africa and concluded that: We need to ask ourselves how many people
can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000,

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discov- ered in the
throes of the event.

Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity.

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Oil crash spooks investors out of Africa, but here's the silver lining Marketwatch

“When you have this type of short-term crisis, you also get investment
opportunities,” he said. “Now you have an opportunity to invest in an
asset class for the long term, where you can have significantly higher
returns relative to the West, where you have close to 0%. The most
realistic number is about 10% nominal annual return on average on the
long term.”

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South Africa's Top Gold Miner Says President Zuma 'Has to Go'

South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma “has to go,” with poor governance
deterring prospective investors, according to the head of Sibanye Gold
Ltd., the biggest producer of South African bullion.

“Any solid investor, any solid company is founded on good governance
and what we have in South Africa at the moment is very poor
governance, from a government point of view,” Sibanye Chief Executive
Officer Neal Froneman said in an interview Monday from the Denver Gold
Forum in Colorado Springs.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +2.53% 2016

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.9992


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +13.82% 2016


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -2.80% 2016


Ghana’s Central Bank Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at 26% Bloomberg
Africa ‏@BBGAfrica


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -10.65% 2016


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A narrow triangle off the coast of Africa, in the Indian Ocean, about 100,000 square kilometers (62,000 square miles), is the bone of contention between neighboring Kenya and Somalia

A narrow triangle off the coast of Africa, in the Indian Ocean, about
100,000 square kilometers (62,000 square miles), is the bone of
contention between neighboring Kenya and Somalia. Both countries want
the area because it supposedly has a large deposit of oil and gas, but
it's not clear to which country it belongs.

"The position of the boundary is a gray area," said Timothy Walter, a
maritime border conflict researcher at the Institute for Security
Studies (ISS) in South Africa.

For Kenya, however, the boundary is quite clear. It lies line parallel
to the line of latitude. That gives Kenya the larger share of the
maritime area and it has already sold mining licenses to international
companies. But Somalia disagrees.

The Somalis want the boundary to extend to the southeast as an
extension of the land border. In 2009, both countries agreed that the
United Nations commission in charge of mediating border disputes
should determine the border line once and for all. They also agreed
that they should continue to work together to find a solution so that
the matter would not have to go to court.

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#SouthAfrica offers refuge to #SouthSudan's #RiekMachar CCTV Africa

Chart: FDI stock in #Africa by source country | @TheEIU_Africa
@ecn_africa Africa Visual Data ‏@AfroDataCharts


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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.299
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -9.24% 2016


132.24 +0.66 +0.50%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -20.34% 2016


3,218.8 +12.76 +0.40% [3,116.82 was a multi-year Low from 30th August]

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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September 2016

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