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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 04th of October 2016

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"The U.S. doesn't implement agreements" on Syria and then tries "to shift responsibilities to others," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told state TV.
Law & Politics

“In the meantime, the militants regrouped, got weapons, and mobilized
resources due to the inactivity of Washington.”

International Markets

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1187
Dollar Index 95.88 A gauge of the greenback’s strength climbed to a
two-week high and yields on benchmark U.S. Treasuries increased for a
third day.
Japan Yen 102.25
Swiss Franc 0.9746
Pound 1.2838
Aussie 0.7673
India Rupee 66.525
South Korea Won 1106.23
Brazil Real 3.2107
Egypt Pound 8.8800
South Africa Rand 13.6297

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Progress in African governance over last decade held back by deterioration in safety and rule of law, Mo Ibrahim Foundation reports

Key findings of the 2016 IIAG include:
• Over the past decade, the continental average score in Overall
Governance has improved by one point.
• Since 2006, 37 countries, hosting 70% of African citizens, have
improved in Overall Governance.
• The greatest improver at the Overall Governance level over the
decade is Côte d’Ivoire (+13.1), followed by Togo (+9.7), Zimbabwe
(+9.7), Liberia (+8.7) and Rwanda (+8.4).
• Even if Ghana and South Africa feature in the top ten performing
countries in Overall Governance in 2015, they are also the eighth and
tenth most deteriorated over the decade.
• At the Overall Governance level, the three highest scoring countries
in 2015 are Mauritius, Botswana and Cabo Verde, and the three most
improved over the decade are Côte d’Ivoire, Togo and Zimbabwe.
• Safety & Rule of Law is the only category of the Index to register a
negative trend over the decade, falling by -2.8 score points in the
past ten years.
• In 2015 almost two-thirds of African citizens live in a country
where Safety & Rule of Law has deteriorated over the last ten years.
• Accountability is the lowest scoring (35.1) of the 14 sub-categories in 2015.
• The continental average score for the Corruption & Bureaucracy
indicator has declined by -8.7 points over the last decade, with 33
countries registering deterioration, 24 of them falling to their worst
ever score in 2015.
• A large majority (78%) of African citizens live in a country that
has improved in Participation & Human Rights over the past decade.
• Progress over the decade in Participation & Human Rights (+2.4
points) has been driven by Gender
(+4.3) and Participation (+3.0), while Rights (-0.2) registered a
slight decline.
• Six of the ten highest scoring countries in Rights have registered
deterioration in the past ten years.
• Two-thirds of the countries on the continent, representing 67% of
the African population, have shown
deterioration in Freedom of Expression over the past ten years. Eleven
countries, covering over a quarter (27%) of the continent’s
population, have declined across all three civil society measures –
Civil Society Participation, Freedom of Expression and Freedom of
Association & Assembly – over the decade.
• In 2015 more than two-thirds of African citizens (70%) live in
countries where Sustainable Economic Opportunity has improved in the
last ten years.
• Digital & IT Infrastructure is the most improved indicator (out of
95) of the IIAG over the decade.
• Diversification is the lowest scoring indicator in the IIAG, and
shows deterioration over the past ten years.
• 40% of Africans live in a country which has registered deterioration
in Electricity Infrastructure over the decade, with over half of
Africa’s economy affected by this issue.
• The marginal deterioration of -0.8 points over the decade registered
in Business Environment masks considerably diverging trends, with 24
countries declining, five by more than -10.0 points, and 28 countries
progressing, five by more than +10.0 points.
• Niger, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo and Kenya have progressed by more
than +10.0 points in Business Environment over the decade.
• 43 countries, hosting more than four-fifths (87%) of the African
population, have registered improvement in Human Development over the
decade. Rwanda, Ethiopia, Angola, and Togo have
increased by more than +10.0 points in Human Development over the decade.
• All 54 countries have registered progress in Child Mortality over the decade.
• Over the last ten years, the Poverty indicator has registered
improvement (+7.2 points), with 29 countries, accounting for 67% of
Africa’s population and 76% of Africa’s GDP, improving.
• However, the Poverty Reduction Priorities indicator has registered
an average decline of -1.3 points, with 23 countries, hosting 45% of
Africa’s population, declining.

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The government spent 58 percent of its full-year budget for state-worker pay in the first six months of 2016

The government spent 58 percent of its full-year budget for
state-worker pay in the first six months of 2016, exceeding annual
allocations for local government and rural development employees,
according to budget documents, raising questions about the country’s
commitment to rein in the fiscal deficit as agreed with the
International Monetary Fund.

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Kenya Avoids Brexit Moment as Markets Disregard Doomsayers

It was described as Kenya’s Brexit moment, a decision that had the
potential to spur a withdrawal of foreign investors, sending the stock
market and the shilling tumbling and damaging East Africa’s
most-developed economy.

Yet, almost six weeks after Kenya capped banks’ lending rates at four
percentage points above the central bank benchmark, its currency is
little changed against the dollar and the main stock index has gained
on 14 of the past 17 days.

“At least in the short-term, the market doesn’t appear to anticipate
any major impact on the local unit from the new laws capping lending
rates,” said David Willacy, a London-based foreign-exchange trader at
INTL FCStone Ltd. The central bank has been quick to reassure the
market after major economic events this year, and “made it clear to
the market they will not let any depreciation pressures build up
against the shilling,” he said.

“Those people who are coming in to invest are running away from the 5
to 6 percent return on equity in Europe and the 15 percent return on
equity in South Africa,” he said Sept. 21. “Even if returns in Kenyan
banks fall down to 20 percent, from the historic 30 percent return on
equity, there is still a lot of pick up.”

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03-OCT-2016 :: Lamu and Gunboat Diplomacy @TheStarKenya

I was sitting at a very well-appointed dinner table in Wichenford,
Worcestershire when my host Mr. Richard Britten-Long said.

‘’Aly-Khan, if you care to think about it, Superpower status is only
achieved through Naval Power.’’

Of course, that made me think of episodes of ‘’Gunboat diplomacy’’
like the Don Pacifico Incident in 1850, in which the British Foreign
Secretary Lord Palmerston dispatched a squadron of the Royal Navy to
blockade the Greek port of Piraeus in retaliation for the harming of a
British subject, David Pacifico. From the Don Pacifico incident I lept
to the recently convened TICADV1 conference in Nairobi where I had
heard Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in person say the following,

“Japan bears the responsibility of fostering the confluence of the
Pacific and Indian Oceans”

And then a few short weeks after that comment by Prime Minister Abe, I
learnt that three Japanese naval ships had arrived in Mombasa under
the command of Rear-Admiral Hidetoshi Iwasaki with 750 officers. The
three ships —JS Kashima, JS Setoyuki and JS Asagiri were the first
time Japanese naval vessels had visited Mombasa since 1970.

Nick Turse who likes to shine a torch on US military power projection
in Africa had recently written in The Intercept about a $100 million
American Drone Base that was being built on the outskirts of Agadez in

‘’Niger has positioned itself to be the key regional hub for U.S.
military operations, with Agadez serving as the premier outpost for
launching intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions
against a plethora of terror’’ [Nick Turse in The Intercept]

And then I had a kind of epiphany and said


I had begun to discount Lamu and its big dreams of being an oil and
gas hot-spot, what with Museveni electing to go the Tanga route, South
Sudan being at Ground Zero [well below Ground Zero when you consider
they are $4 billion off-side with nothing to show for it] and Ethiopia
working the Djibouti angle.

Then I recalled conversations with other folks who had told me with
real conviction, The Americans want Lamu and they are ready to invest.

You can control the straits of Hormuz from Lamu and as I believe the
Indian Ocean is a kind of appendage of the South China sea, then I
have to conclude that Lamu is a national security Gig and the
equivalent of the Agadez of the Sea.

So I am back to being a buyer of Lamu on the basis that it is all
about having a staging post to project naval and military power across
this vast swathe of the world, an arc that runs from Mozambique all
the way to India and further just like the old Dhow routes [that
relied on the ‘’reversible escalator monsoon wind’’]

The Troika of powers are the US, India and Japan and given that they
are seeking to triangulate China in the South China Sea, it does not
take much to extrapolate that Lamu has a geopolitical role to play,
which role has been obscured by the oil and gas chatter.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.24

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -5.18% 2016

138.15 +1.40 +1.02%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -18.45% 2016 [highest close sine 26th August]

3,295.10 +51.89 +1.60%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2016

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