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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 05th of October 2016

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Prompt Board Next day settlement
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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IMF Sees Subdued Global Growth, Warns Economic Stagnation Could Fuel Protectionist Calls @IMFNews

Global growth subpar at 3.1 percent in 2016, with slight increase to
3.4 percent next year
Persistent stagnation in advanced economies could further fuel
anti-trade sentiment, stifling growth
Countries need to rely on all policy levers—monetary, fiscal and
structural—to lift growth prospects
Global economic growth will remain subdued this year following a
slowdown in the United States and Britain’s vote to leave the European
Union, the IMF said in its October 2016 World Economic Outlook.

“Taken as a whole, the world economy has moved sideways,” said IMF
chief economist and economic counsellor, Maurice Obstfeld. “We have
slightly marked down 2016 growth prospects for advanced economies
while marking up those in the rest of the world,” he said.

The euro area will expand 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent next
year, compared with 2 percent growth in 2015.

The IMF marked down its forecast for the United States this year to
1.6 percent, from 2.2 percent in July, following a disappointing first
half caused by weak business investment and diminishing pace of
stockpiles of goods.

U.K. growth is predicted to slow to 1.8 percent this year and to 1.1
percent in 2017, down from 2.2 percent last year.

Growth in Japan, the world’s number 3 economy, is expected to remain
subdued at 0.5 percent this year and 0.6 percent in 2017. In the near
term, government spending and easy monetary policy will support
growth; in the medium term, Japan’s economy will be hampered by a
shrinking population.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies continue to struggle with lower
commodity revenues, weighing on growth in the region. Nigeria’s
economy is forecast to shrink 1.7 percent in 2016, and South Africa’s
will barely expand. By contrast, several of the region’s non-commodity
exporters, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal, are
expected to continue to grow at a robust pace of more than 5 percent
this year.

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+ 3. Pound Drops to Lowest Since 1985 as Angst Builds Over Brexit

The pound tumbled to its lowest level in three decades amid mounting
concern the U.K. is heading for a so-called hard Brexit that would
restrict access to the European Union’s single market.

Sterling exceeded its lows versus the dollar set in the wake of the
June 23 referendum and touched the weakest in three years against the
euro. The slide extended as Prime Minister Theresa May was said to
take the view that financial services would get no special favors in
EU exit talks. The pound has fallen against all 16 of its major peers
since the premier’s weekend announcement that she’ll trigger the
formal process for quitting by March.

The pound fell 0.7 percent to $1.2747 as of 10:30 a.m. in London, and
touched $1.2740, the lowest since 1985. It sank 0.4 percent to 87.62
pence per euro, after dropping to the weakest since August 2013.

The Bloomberg British Pound Index, which measures sterling against
other major currencies, has fallen more than 1 percent this week to
the lowest since the gauge began in 2004.


I agree with this commentary

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GBP: weakness buffers Aurelija Augulyte

The GBP has failed to recover after the Brexit vote, and new fears
emerge. The economy, however, has surprised on the upside, and should
data hold firm further BoE action will be questioned...We expect a
firmer GBP by year-end.

While the GBP has not recovered after the June vote, UK financial
markets have remained resilient, thus the shock to the economy is
limited to confidence. The weakness in data just after Brexit was
reversed somewhat, with in particular industrial figures recovering,
which even the BoE acknowledged was a positive surprise. The easy
monetary conditions, in particular the GBP weakness, are going to push
up industrial indicators in the coming months.

What are the downside risks? Domestic consumption. The GBP weakness
suggests downside for domestic demand. However, we have so far seen
resilient retail sales figures and some divergence between retail
sales and consumer confidence lately. Again, the mitigating factor is
the weak GBP: online retail sales account for nearly 15% of total
retail sales, including foreign purchases, which picked up after the
GBP collapse. Export data and indicators have improved, and we will
see further improvement in the foreign trade balance in the coming

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Less Gobbledygook, More Dr. Seuss Needed From U.K. Central Bank

“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.” ― Dr. Seuss

Home Thoughts

“Today you are You, that is truer than true. There is no one alive who
is Youer than You.” ― Dr. Seuss

“You're off to Great Places!
Today is your day!
Your mountain is waiting,
So... get on your way!”
― Dr. Seuss, Oh, The Places You'll Go!

“Remember me and smile, for it's better to forget than to remember me
and cry.” ― Dr. Seuss

“Only you can control your future.” ― Dr. Seuss

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Is Ethiopia unravelling? IRIN
Law & Politics

On Sunday evening, the bars of Addis Ababa were doing their usual
brisk business. Just 50 kilometres south of the Ethiopian capital, in
the picturesque volcanic lake town of Bishoftu, more than 100 people
lay dead.

About two million ethnic Oromo had turned up to celebrate a
traditional cultural festival. But a deadly stampede ensued after
police fired tear gas at protesters who were chanting anti-government
slogans and throwing stones and bottles.

Ethiopia is going through its most widespread and sustained protests
since the ruling Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front came
to power in 1991. It’s testing the leadership’s grip, and its big idea
of a “developmental state” – the implied bargain in which the
government delivers economic growth, in exchange for acquiescence over
its authoritarianism.

Although there has been significant economic growth over the past two
decades, it has not kept pace with a “youth bulge”, rising
unemployment and growing inequality. The bargain seems to be fraying
in the face of increasingly obvious public corruption, disaffection
with the suffocation of civil liberties, and localised misrule at the
state level.

“The oppressed stay silent but eventually you reach a critical mass
and then it boils over,” said Yilikal Getenet, chairman of the
opposition Blue Party. “Hundreds have been killed but they keep
protesting. They go to protests knowing the risks. So what does that
tell you?”

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China is the winner in India's surgical strikes at Pakistan BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR
Law & Politics

Beijing has begun replacing Washington as the pre-eminent influence
over Islamabad. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has no option but
to order a reboot of the normalization process with China, with the
locus shifting away from obsessive competition to optimal cooperation

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Hillary Clinton soars to six-point national lead in polls after Donald Trump suffers 'worst ever week'
Law & Politics

There was always a risk Trump might just implode but I think 6 points
is a Sell and the difference is set to be narrower.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1217
Dollar Index 96.01
Japan Yen 102.93
Swiss Franc 0.9784
Pound 1.2688
Aussie 0.7599
India Rupee 66.545
South Korea Won 1114.49
Brazil Real 3.2593
Egypt Pound 8.88
South Africa Rand 13.8059

Dollar Yen 5 day Chart INO 102.93


Paul Virilio’s ‘Wealth is the hidden side of speed and speed the
hidden side of wealth’


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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

#Gold drops >3%, below $1300/oz on more bullish US outlook and Fed
rate concern. Probability of a Dec hike jumps to 61.2%. Holger
Zschaepitz [Big Breakdown]


Gold 6 month INO 1271.86 [Thats a serious breakdown]


Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO [testing the range highs for 2016]


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Emerging Equity Rally Wins Converts as Bearish Bets Slide @SriniSivabalan @BloombergEM
Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

@FrontierMarkets Razia Khan, StanChart: "There isn't a lot more that
needs to start going right to unleash the growth potential in Africa."

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The Entire Report is here @IMFNews P.47 for SSA

IMF has FY16 GDP South Africa 0.1% Nigeria 1.7% Angola at 0%
Cote-D'ivoire 8% Tanzania 7.2% Senegal 6.6% Ethiopia 6.5% Kenya 6%
Uganda 4.9% Ghana 3.3% [then 7.4%] DR Congo 3.9% then 4.2%

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Seychelles opposition leader calls for elections instead of planned presidency handover

The leader of the parliamentary majority in the Seychelles said on
Tuesday President James Michel should not go ahead with handing power
to his deputy when he steps down this month, calling instead for a
presidential election to be held.

Michel, whose party has been in power since 1977, announced last week
he would step down after less than a year in office and that Vice
President Danny Faure would take over for the rest of the five-year

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South Africa's Gordhan Says Probe Into Him 'Political Mischief'

South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said the police
investigation against him is nothing but political mischief and will
be resolved soon.

“As far as the so-called investigation is concerned, that’s no more
than a bit of political mischief, which every country will have,”
Gordhan said in an interview with Bloomberg TV in New York Tuesday.
“I’m sure we in South Africa will resolve these issues.”

Reports in August that Gordhan, who led efforts earlier in the year
boost the confidence in the economy, is being investigated by the
police for overseeing the establishment of an investigative unit when
he led the Revenue Service between 1999 and 2009 hit the rand and
bonds. The police and National Prosecuting Authority haven’t made
contact with him since the week of Aug. 22, when he was ordered to
present himself to the Hawks, a special police unit, Gordhan said.
“They can’t make up their minds at the moment,” he said. “The latest
news in the media is that they believe they don’t actually have a

Gordhan is in New York with a delegation of business leaders and
central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago for a conference with investors
Tuesday and Wednesday. The South Africa remains an “easy sell” for
foreigners, he said.

The economic downturn has “bottomed out” and gross domestic product
will expand this year, he said.

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The Evolution of Hope - A Key Note by Bob Collymore, CEO, Safaricom Limited #FTAfrica @FTLive
Kenyan Economy

Many years ago, there was a group who dominated the earth.

They were at the very top of the food chain, and were the most deadly of prey.

They acted in their own interest, and years into their dominance, they
were swept away by an evolutionary event.

Life – as the leaders of our world at that time knew it – ended in a
wisp of noxious gases. People called this evolutionary event “the
Great Dying”.

The origins of a new evolution started once a new word came into
existence in 1613. Computer originally was used to describe a human
who performed calculations.

The Third Industrial Revolution introduced the digitalization of
technology. This is where the story may start to seem familiar.

We’ve evolved from societies bound by our homes, to our countries, to
our continents to an unbounded planet tied together by technology.

As a share of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, manufacturing has shrunk from
almost 20% to about half that.

Almost the entire output for the continent today is for domestic
consumption, not export.

We see a worrying increase in political turbulence in Africa, the
Middle East, Eastern Europe and as someone who shared a panel with me
last weekend said "In Russia nothing is unthinkable"

This is what happens when the decline of income intersects with the
decline of hope.

At Safaricom, we believe that mobile technology has the ability to
drive transformative change in Kenya and deliver critical services.

This is because traditional infrastructure or government services are
still not available to large segments of the populations, and this is
why we heavily integrate smart technologies into our engagement at a
community level.

Africa is evolving.
But it needs our help.
Business can help bridge the gaps that our continuing evolution has created.
Our biggest challenge as a community today is to ensure we don’t get
left behind – and also that we leave no one behind.
What we do next, and how we do it, will define our evolution as humanity.

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@Safaricomltd share price data here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           20.00
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        801,308,560,000
EPS:             0.95
PE:                 21.053

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CDC fourth largest I&M owner after 10.6pc stake buyout @BD_Africa
Kenyan Economy

The CDC agreed to fully buy out German and French development finance
institutions, DEG and Proparco, which hold a combined 10.68 per cent
stake, to become the fourth largest owner of lender.

“Further to the cautionary announcement on April 18, in respect of the
proposed acquisition of approximately 10.68 per cent of the issued
ordinary shares by CDC Group Plc, I&M Holdings is pleased to inform
its shareholders and the investing public that all the conditions
precedent to completion of the acquisition of the shares have been
fulfilled and the acquisition of the sale shares was completed on
September 30,” said I&M in a regulatory notice.

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I&M share price data here
Kenyan Economy

Closing Price:           88.00
Total Shares Issued:          392362035.00
Market Capitalization:        34,527,859,080
EPS:             17.12
PE:                 5.140

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -5.48% 2016

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -18.76% 2016

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2016

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