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Wednesday 05th of October 2016 |
Morning Africa |
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IMF Sees Subdued Global Growth, Warns Economic Stagnation Could Fuel Protectionist Calls @IMFNews Africa |
Global growth subpar at 3.1 percent in 2016, with slight increase to 3.4 percent next year Persistent stagnation in advanced economies could further fuel anti-trade sentiment, stifling growth Countries need to rely on all policy levers—monetary, fiscal and structural—to lift growth prospects Global economic growth will remain subdued this year following a slowdown in the United States and Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the IMF said in its October 2016 World Economic Outlook.
“Taken as a whole, the world economy has moved sideways,” said IMF chief economist and economic counsellor, Maurice Obstfeld. “We have slightly marked down 2016 growth prospects for advanced economies while marking up those in the rest of the world,” he said.
The euro area will expand 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent next year, compared with 2 percent growth in 2015.
The IMF marked down its forecast for the United States this year to 1.6 percent, from 2.2 percent in July, following a disappointing first half caused by weak business investment and diminishing pace of stockpiles of goods.
U.K. growth is predicted to slow to 1.8 percent this year and to 1.1 percent in 2017, down from 2.2 percent last year.
Growth in Japan, the world’s number 3 economy, is expected to remain subdued at 0.5 percent this year and 0.6 percent in 2017. In the near term, government spending and easy monetary policy will support growth; in the medium term, Japan’s economy will be hampered by a shrinking population.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies continue to struggle with lower commodity revenues, weighing on growth in the region. Nigeria’s economy is forecast to shrink 1.7 percent in 2016, and South Africa’s will barely expand. By contrast, several of the region’s non-commodity exporters, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal, are expected to continue to grow at a robust pace of more than 5 percent this year.
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+ 3. Pound Drops to Lowest Since 1985 as Angst Builds Over Brexit Africa |
The pound tumbled to its lowest level in three decades amid mounting concern the U.K. is heading for a so-called hard Brexit that would restrict access to the European Union’s single market.
Sterling exceeded its lows versus the dollar set in the wake of the June 23 referendum and touched the weakest in three years against the euro. The slide extended as Prime Minister Theresa May was said to take the view that financial services would get no special favors in EU exit talks. The pound has fallen against all 16 of its major peers since the premier’s weekend announcement that she’ll trigger the formal process for quitting by March.
The pound fell 0.7 percent to $1.2747 as of 10:30 a.m. in London, and touched $1.2740, the lowest since 1985. It sank 0.4 percent to 87.62 pence per euro, after dropping to the weakest since August 2013.
The Bloomberg British Pound Index, which measures sterling against other major currencies, has fallen more than 1 percent this week to the lowest since the gauge began in 2004.
Conclusions
I agree with this commentary
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GBP: weakness buffers Aurelija Augulyte Africa |
The GBP has failed to recover after the Brexit vote, and new fears emerge. The economy, however, has surprised on the upside, and should data hold firm further BoE action will be questioned...We expect a firmer GBP by year-end.
While the GBP has not recovered after the June vote, UK financial markets have remained resilient, thus the shock to the economy is limited to confidence. The weakness in data just after Brexit was reversed somewhat, with in particular industrial figures recovering, which even the BoE acknowledged was a positive surprise. The easy monetary conditions, in particular the GBP weakness, are going to push up industrial indicators in the coming months.
What are the downside risks? Domestic consumption. The GBP weakness suggests downside for domestic demand. However, we have so far seen resilient retail sales figures and some divergence between retail sales and consumer confidence lately. Again, the mitigating factor is the weak GBP: online retail sales account for nearly 15% of total retail sales, including foreign purchases, which picked up after the GBP collapse. Export data and indicators have improved, and we will see further improvement in the foreign trade balance in the coming months.
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Less Gobbledygook, More Dr. Seuss Needed From U.K. Central Bank Africa |
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.” ― Dr. Seuss
Home Thoughts
“Today you are You, that is truer than true. There is no one alive who is Youer than You.” ― Dr. Seuss
“You're off to Great Places! Today is your day! Your mountain is waiting, So... get on your way!” ― Dr. Seuss, Oh, The Places You'll Go!
“Remember me and smile, for it's better to forget than to remember me and cry.” ― Dr. Seuss
“Only you can control your future.” ― Dr. Seuss
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Is Ethiopia unravelling? IRIN Law & Politics |
On Sunday evening, the bars of Addis Ababa were doing their usual brisk business. Just 50 kilometres south of the Ethiopian capital, in the picturesque volcanic lake town of Bishoftu, more than 100 people lay dead.
About two million ethnic Oromo had turned up to celebrate a traditional cultural festival. But a deadly stampede ensued after police fired tear gas at protesters who were chanting anti-government slogans and throwing stones and bottles.
Ethiopia is going through its most widespread and sustained protests since the ruling Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front came to power in 1991. It’s testing the leadership’s grip, and its big idea of a “developmental state” – the implied bargain in which the government delivers economic growth, in exchange for acquiescence over its authoritarianism.
Although there has been significant economic growth over the past two decades, it has not kept pace with a “youth bulge”, rising unemployment and growing inequality. The bargain seems to be fraying in the face of increasingly obvious public corruption, disaffection with the suffocation of civil liberties, and localised misrule at the state level.
“The oppressed stay silent but eventually you reach a critical mass and then it boils over,” said Yilikal Getenet, chairman of the opposition Blue Party. “Hundreds have been killed but they keep protesting. They go to protests knowing the risks. So what does that tell you?”
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Seychelles opposition leader calls for elections instead of planned presidency handover Africa |
The leader of the parliamentary majority in the Seychelles said on Tuesday President James Michel should not go ahead with handing power to his deputy when he steps down this month, calling instead for a presidential election to be held.
Michel, whose party has been in power since 1977, announced last week he would step down after less than a year in office and that Vice President Danny Faure would take over for the rest of the five-year term.
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South Africa's Gordhan Says Probe Into Him 'Political Mischief' Africa |
South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said the police investigation against him is nothing but political mischief and will be resolved soon.
“As far as the so-called investigation is concerned, that’s no more than a bit of political mischief, which every country will have,” Gordhan said in an interview with Bloomberg TV in New York Tuesday. “I’m sure we in South Africa will resolve these issues.”
Reports in August that Gordhan, who led efforts earlier in the year boost the confidence in the economy, is being investigated by the police for overseeing the establishment of an investigative unit when he led the Revenue Service between 1999 and 2009 hit the rand and bonds. The police and National Prosecuting Authority haven’t made contact with him since the week of Aug. 22, when he was ordered to present himself to the Hawks, a special police unit, Gordhan said. “They can’t make up their minds at the moment,” he said. “The latest news in the media is that they believe they don’t actually have a case.”
Gordhan is in New York with a delegation of business leaders and central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago for a conference with investors Tuesday and Wednesday. The South Africa remains an “easy sell” for foreigners, he said.
The economic downturn has “bottomed out” and gross domestic product will expand this year, he said.
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The Evolution of Hope - A Key Note by Bob Collymore, CEO, Safaricom Limited #FTAfrica @FTLive Kenyan Economy |
Many years ago, there was a group who dominated the earth.
They were at the very top of the food chain, and were the most deadly of prey.
They acted in their own interest, and years into their dominance, they were swept away by an evolutionary event.
Life – as the leaders of our world at that time knew it – ended in a wisp of noxious gases. People called this evolutionary event “the Great Dying”.
The origins of a new evolution started once a new word came into existence in 1613. Computer originally was used to describe a human who performed calculations.
The Third Industrial Revolution introduced the digitalization of technology. This is where the story may start to seem familiar.
We’ve evolved from societies bound by our homes, to our countries, to our continents to an unbounded planet tied together by technology.
As a share of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, manufacturing has shrunk from almost 20% to about half that.
Almost the entire output for the continent today is for domestic consumption, not export.
We see a worrying increase in political turbulence in Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and as someone who shared a panel with me last weekend said "In Russia nothing is unthinkable"
This is what happens when the decline of income intersects with the decline of hope.
At Safaricom, we believe that mobile technology has the ability to drive transformative change in Kenya and deliver critical services.
This is because traditional infrastructure or government services are still not available to large segments of the populations, and this is why we heavily integrate smart technologies into our engagement at a community level.
Africa is evolving. But it needs our help. Business can help bridge the gaps that our continuing evolution has created. Our biggest challenge as a community today is to ensure we don’t get left behind – and also that we leave no one behind. What we do next, and how we do it, will define our evolution as humanity.
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CDC fourth largest I&M owner after 10.6pc stake buyout @BD_Africa Kenyan Economy |
The CDC agreed to fully buy out German and French development finance institutions, DEG and Proparco, which hold a combined 10.68 per cent stake, to become the fourth largest owner of lender.
“Further to the cautionary announcement on April 18, in respect of the proposed acquisition of approximately 10.68 per cent of the issued ordinary shares by CDC Group Plc, I&M Holdings is pleased to inform its shareholders and the investing public that all the conditions precedent to completion of the acquisition of the shares have been fulfilled and the acquisition of the sale shares was completed on September 30,” said I&M in a regulatory notice.
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