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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 11th of October 2016

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site

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Aradhana Samdariya Teenage girl dies after 68-day religious fast 'to bring family luck' [Nothing can be said]

The field of vision is comparable, for me, to the terrain of an
archaeological dig. To see is to be on guard, to wait for what emerges
from the background, without any name, without any particular
interest: what was silent will speak, what is closed will open and
will take on a voice. Paul Virilio

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Paul Virilio

“The reconciliation of nothing and reality and the suspension of time
and space by high velocities replace the exoticism of journeys with a
vast expanse of emptiness.” ― Paul Virilio

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Ethiopia Losing Appeal for Foreign Investors as Attacks Spread
Law & Politics

Ethiopia’s attraction as a favorite new destination for foreign
investors is fast dissipating as businesses owned by Nigerian
billionaire Aliko Dangote and Dutch flower growers come under attack
in growing political unrest.

The government declared a six-month state of emergency Sunday to deal
with protests by ethnic Oromo and Amhara communities that began 11
months ago over dispossession of their land, political marginalization
and state repression. The security forces have killed about 700 people
during the demonstrations, according to the Association for Human
Rights in Ethiopia. The government says the attacks are being
orchestrated by “foreign elements.”

Last year, investors had been touting Ethiopia as a hot new investment
destination, lauding the way the government has ramped up
infrastructure spending and embraced foreign capital to propel
economic growth at the fastest pace on the continent. That appeal is
losing its luster as the protests present the biggest challenge to
Ethiopia’s ruling coalition since it gained power by force a quarter
of a century ago.

“The issues that need to be resolved are big, and investors will be
wary as to whether the current government will be able to address
them,” Jared Jeffrey, a political analyst at NKC Africa Economics,
said by e-mail. “The longer it takes for the necessary reforms to be
made the more fragile the state will become and the higher the risk to


This is an inflexion point and the Regime must be hoping for the
Kapucinski moment. I just think Repression no longer looks like an
optimal regime strategy.

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May 2015 ''The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Law & Politics

PAUL Virilio (born 1932) is a French cultural theorist and urbanist.

In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack),
becomes in other words a producer of speed.’’

As we look around the world today, we can see a battle for the
‘street’ from the streets of Bujumbura to the streets of Baltimore. In
November last year, I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan
Africa and concluded that: We need to ask ourselves how many people
can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000,

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discov- ered in the
throes of the event.

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"Ethiopia's reputation for stability has been shattered by an escalating series of protests in Oromia and Amhara regions," Maplecroft said in an analysis of the situation.
Law & Politics

“The government has responded with a characteristically heavy-handed
response, which has often only served to escalate the situation.”

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The contrast between the strident US rhetoric against Russia and the studied indifference on the part of Ankara makes a hugely significant fault line in the Syrian war.
Law & Politics

The contrast between the strident US rhetoric against Russia – with US
Secretary of State John Kerry threatening to try Russians for war
crimes – and the studied indifference on the part of Ankara makes a
hugely significant fault line in the Syrian war.

With Syrian forces having entered the eastern parts of Aleppo, the
rebels are virtually trapped with all supply lines cut. Moscow has
said it is open to the idea mooted by the UN to evacuate the rebels
from Aleppo and end the fighting. If the plan takes off, Turkey has a
key role to play on the ground. This is one thing.

Again, Russia has virtually imposed a ‘no-fly zone’ over Syria with
its latest deployments of advanced missile defense systems. The
Russian Defense Ministry openly warned on Thursday that foreign
aircraft and missiles risk being shot down, since Russian personnel
deployed in Syria cannot be endangered.

“That is why any missile or air strikes on the territory under control
of the Syrian government will create an obvious threat for Russian
military… The crews on duty will hardly have the time to calculate the
missile’s flight path or try to find out their nationality,” Russian
spokesman Gen. Igor Konashenko said in a hard-hitting remark.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1134
Dollar Index 97.02
Japan Yen 103.95
Swiss Franc 0.9833
Pound 1.2320
Aussie 0.7559
India Rupee 66.627
South Korea Won 1119.30
Brazil Real 3.2052
Egypt Pound 8.8795
South Africa Rand 13.8956

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Merkel pledges support for Niger to fight human traffickers, militants Reuters

Merkel, under intense political pressure at home for allowing nearly a
million migrants into Germany last year, was on the second leg of a
three-country African tour that started in Mali and will finish in

She admitted after meeting Niger's President Mahamadou Issoufou that
her goal of stabilising African countries by creating better economic
conditions, thereby tackling one of the root causes of migration,
could only be reached in the long term.

"But this cannot be an excuse for not trying to achieve short-term
success," Merkel told a news conference.

She said Germany would support Issoufou's government with 77 million
euros ($86 million) to combat people-smuggling and illegal migration
in the central Agadez region.

Germany would also help Niger's armed forces in their fight against
militant Islamists by offering military vehicles and other equipment
worth 10 million euros, she said.

Issoufou welcomed Merkel's pledge, but said more money from EU
countries was needed to tackle the migration challenge. "We need
massively more aid," he said.

The chancellor has described Africa, with its population of 1.2
billion people, as "the central problem" in the migration issue. Last
month she said the EU needed to establish deals with North African
countries along the lines of its agreement with Turkey to curb migrant
flows across its territory to southeast Europe.

Merkel will travel on to Ethiopia on Tuesday, on the last leg of her
first extended trip to Africa since 2011.

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The rand is on the verge of bucking a five-year losing trend. @Business

Instead of holding a trajectory that has seen it lose more than 50
percent of its value against the dollar since 2011, South Africa’s
currency may be about to end a pattern of annual declines, according
to Informa Global Markets, which analyzes technical trends.

With developed-market central bank policies pushing yields on $11.6
trillion worth of debt to below zero as of end-September, a wall of
money from investors seeking returns is flooding emerging markets,
helping the rand gain 13 percent against the dollar this year.

“The trendline is under attack,” said Kamran Sheikh, a London-based
technical analyst at IGM. “We have not yet seen any significant
rebound from the recent lows near the trendline. Basically, we are
witnessing a correction of the entire 2011-2016 bull run” for the
dollar against the rand, “so we have ample room for further downside.”
The multi-year trendline drawn from the rand’s 2011 low was at 13.3315
by the end of last week.

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Nigeria's banking industry is experiencing a "full-blown financial crisis" as failed fiscal and monetary policies lead to a credit crunch, according to Arqaam Capital.

Unity Bank Plc and Skye Bank Plc are close to being insolvent, while
lenders FBN Holdings Plc and Sterling Bank Plc “will need a dilutive
capital hike,” Jaap Meijer and Tarek Sleiman, analysts at the
Dubai-based investment bank and brokerage, said in an e-mailed note on
Monday. Capital ratios are set to worsen because of currency
depreciation and souring loans, they said. Calls to Unity weren’t
immediately returned and Skye didn’t reply to questions.

“Our acid test reveals seven under-capitalized banks” with a deficit
of as much as 1 trillion naira ($3.2 billion) in the financial system,
Meijer and Sleiman said. A stress test identified FBN as the most
under capitalized lender with Unity, Diamond Bank Plc, Skye, FCMB
Group Plc, Sterling and Fidelity Bank Plc also showing deficits if
they were to fully provide for non-performing loans, according to

Moody’s Investors Service said on Monday that Nigeria’s five biggest
banks share common credit challenges related to the economic slowdown.
Moody’s expects non-performing loans to increase to about 12 percent
over the next 12 months. The ratio of non-performing loans to total
credit rose to 11.7 percent at the end of June from 5.3 percent at the
end of 2015, the Abuja-based Central Bank of Nigeria, which requires
banks keep the measure below 5 percent, said in a report on its

The five largest lenders, which together hold 57 percent of the
country’s banking assets, “are able to absorb all losses under our
severe stress scenario,” Moody’s said. Guaranty Trust Bank Plc showed
“the greatest resilience” and the other four banks were Zenith Bank
Plc, Access Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and First Bank of
Nigeria Ltd., the ratings company said.

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Bob Diamond's Misadventures in Africa

The ex-Barclays boss went looking for redemption. It hasn’t gone well.
Just wait, he says: “This isn’t five-minute rice.”

Bob Diamond is shifting restlessly on the sofa, his Brioni jacket
draped behind him. He’s in his corner office, high up in the Seagram
Building, a modernist icon on Park Avenue in Manhattan. He faces one
of Takashi Murakami’s smiley face flower motifs, which perfectly
captures the former Barclays boss’s signature optimism. He’s needed
plenty of that in recent years as he’s tried to build a banking empire
across sub-Saharan Africa. That daunting experience can be summed up
by another eye-catching work of art, which is hanging in the reception
area: a Pamela Rosenkranz metallic emergency blanket.

During an interview that lasts more than an hour, Diamond acknowledges
the challenges the company he founded, Atlas Mara, has faced amid
Africa’s weakening economies. And he bemoans its share price, which
has tumbled 68 percent since it went public in December 2013. No
matter. His defense is a work of performance art. Frequently leaping
to his feet—grabbing a golf club or a wad of bills from his
wallet—he’s theatrically dismissive of past failings and resolute
about a future that will prove him right. He insists he and Atlas Mara
are just getting started: “This isn’t five-minute rice.”

John Vitalo, Atlas Mara’s CEO, says the company is looking to expand
in Nigeria, enter Kenya, and eventually have operations in 12 to 15
African markets.

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How Imperial bosses operated ghost accounts @BD_Africa

Imperial Bank’s principal shareholder and chairman Alnashir Popat used
ghost accounts to move depositor funds that were then used to pay his
foreign currency loans, newly released information on insider dealings
that led to the lender’s collapse shows.

FTI Consulting, the US firm that conducted a forensic audit on the
bank, says Mr Popat and his co-directors were direct beneficiaries of
the scandal that was unearthed upon the sudden death last year of
former Imperial Bank managing director Abdulmalek Janmohamed.

Imperial Bank’s receiver manager, the Kenya Deposit Insurance
Corporation (KDIC), says in fresh court filing that the directors
allowed use of fictitious accounts to facilitate transactions on their
behalf and thereafter benefited from the said accounts.

It accuses the directors of allowing “settlement of foreign currency
liabilities owed by Alnashir Popat, the first defendant, by way of
funds transfer from

accounts linked to the fraudulent activity”. It is not clear from the
court papers how much money of the depositor funds were used to settle
Mr Popat’s debts.

The directors are further accused of “allowing use of fictitious
customer accounts to facilitate transactions on their behalf, and
thereafter benefiting from the said accounts and transactions, which
accounts were used to conceal fraudulent activity at the bank.”

This is the first time that Imperial Bank directors have been directly
linked to the mega theft, which has all along been attributed to Mr

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -5.18% 2016

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -19.35% 2016

3,258.93 -2.41 -0.07%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

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Juja, Ruiru, Limuru land prices in sharp rise on mega projects
Kenyan Economy

HassConsult property index for the third quarter of 2016 shows the
price of an acre of land in Juja has gone up by 43.1 per cent over the
past one year to Sh10 million on average, followed by Ruiru at 42.9
per cent to Sh21.3 million and Limuru at 34.9 per cent to Sh19.4

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N.S.E Today

The news that The Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan had been served with
a warrant for Arrest roiled SA Asset prices with the Rand crashing up
to 3.71% lower versus the Dollar.
FinMin Gordhan presciently said the following  at the Financial Times
Africa 2016 conference last week.
''As long as I am in my position I have confidence of President Zuma
says but it can end with 1 phone call''
He was kindly asked to switch off his Phone for the duration of the interview.
The British Pound was last at 1.2271 versus the Dollar.
The Nairobi All Share closed lower.
The NSE20 Index retreated -17.02 points to close at 3241.92.
Equity Turnover slowed from 1.01b previously to clock 636.963m.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Kenyan pilots' union [KALPA] has called for an indefinite strike
beginning Oct. 18 to protest what it described as poor management at
Kenya Airways, the union's general secretary said on Tuesday.

"We have no confidence in the airline's recovery," said the circular
from Capt. Paul Gichinga, the head of the Kenya Airline Pilots
Association (KALPA).

"KALPA's members will from 5:00 a.m. (local time) Tuesday 18th of
October down their tools until a comprehensive change of guard at
Kenya Airways is effected."

Kenya Airways closed unchanged at a 3 month high of 4.20 with 120,700
shares changing hands. recent revelations have not slowed a recent
price rebound.

Safaricom eased -1.23% to close at 20.00 and traded 9.580m shares
worth 192.473m. Safaricom has been a Bull Outlier for 4 years now.

TPS Serena retreated -4.76% to close at 18.00 and traded 954,300
shares. A Significant shareholding has been changing hands at these
levels of -28.00% Year To Date.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

KCB Group retreated -2.702% to close at 27.00 and traded 1.460m
shares. KCB has spoken of seeking partnerships across the digital
Fintech space.

"Today we announce the death of brick and mortar for transactions in
banking," said Dr. James Mwangi at a press briefing.Equity Group

Equity Group firmed +1.68% to close at 30.25 on good volume action of
3.760m shares worth 113.868m.

Standard Chartered closed unchanged at 180.00 and traded 8,200 shares.
StanChart has seriously outperformed its big Cap Peers and is positive
through 2016.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

EABL was the most actively traded share at the Securities Exchange
today and firmed +0.35% to close at a 10 week high of 283.00 and
traded 713,100 shares worth 202.287m. EABL is +5.677% in 2016 and
considerably outperforming the benchmark Indices.

KenGen saw strong volume of 3.620m shares and tacked -0.72% lower to
close at 6.85 but was trading at 7.00 +1.45% a 5 month high. This is a
bullish chart formation which is being affirmed by significantly
upscaled volume action of late.
KPLC rallied +3.78% to close at 9.60 and traded 28,000 shares with
very little showing on the supply side.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2016

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