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Friday 14th of October 2016 |
Morning Africa |
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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site http://www.rich.co.ke |
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I am reading Peter Frankopan's The Silk Roads Africa |
“So widespread was slavery in the Mediterranean and the Arabic world that even today regular greetings reference human trafficking. All over Italy, when they meet, people say to each other, ‘schiavo’, from a Venetian dialect. ‘Ciao’, as it is more commonly spelt, does not mean ‘hello’; it means ‘I am your slave’.” ― Peter Frankopan, The Silk Roads: A New History of the World
Dad is coming home today. I have to commend Aga Khan Hospital. A sick Father brings a lot of things into a sharper perspective.
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No Brexit Cakes for You, Only Salt and Vinegar: Tusk Warns May Law & Politics |
“Hard Brexit" or “no Brexit," take your pick. That was the message European Union President Donald Tusk fired at the U.K. as he signaled the process of disentangling from the bloc may take longer than two years.
In a Brussels speech stressing Europe’s red lines in the Brexit negotiations set to start before April, Tusk said it’s time British Prime Minister Theresa May realized that the withdrawal "will be painful for Britons."
The hard-line stance reflects the European view that the U.K. should not get concessions for leaving the 28-member bloc to avoid more secession talks. The ratcheting up of the rhetoric may fan concern in financial markets that Britain is set to lose the benefits of being a member of Europe’s single market if it continues to focus on curbing immigration.
Tusk said Brexit will feature “no cakes on the table, for anyone” but rather “only salt and vinegar.”
Conclusions
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Flight of the Brexit Bankers BBG Law & Politics |
Where in Europe will they go? If London loses its luster, Dublin and Frankfurt look like winners, but places like Warsaw—yes, Warsaw—stand to gain, too.
After the British stiff-armed Europe this summer, sterling plummeted, London-traded shares quavered, consumer confidence took a dive, and businesses shelved expansion plans. But within a few weeks, Britons saw that the shops were still open, the Tube was running, and the fish and chips remained as crisp as before the June 23 vote.
So, is that it? Has Britain endured all the pain it’s likely to feel over its vote to leave the European Union? Probably not. The repercussions will echo through the City of London’s glass canyons and walnut-paneled boardrooms for years. London, a trading center since Roman times that’s become the world capital of foreign exchange trading and the No. 1 international banking center, has a lot to lose. Consulting, financial, insurance, legal, and related services account for 12 percent of the U.K.’s gross domestic product. They pay more in taxes than any other sector and support an estimated 2.2 million British jobs.
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Trump Said to Block Campaign's Requests to Do Self-Opposition Research Law & Politics |
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump rebuffed political aides’ requests to research his past, people familiar with the matter said, a decision that contributed to his campaign being caught unprepared for the past week’s barrage of claims he mistreated women.
Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s first campaign manager, requested that Trump submit himself to a forensic evaluation that is traditional for any public figure seeking office, according to people granted anonymity to speak freely about the campaign’s start-up days last year. Opposition research would allow Trump’s new political team to prepare for potential attacks on his candidacy. Paul Manafort and his team made a similar request when they took over the reins after Lewandowski, who was ousted this June.
Trump declined, the people said, and the issue became a point of contention among his closest political advisers and some long-time employees at the Trump Organization. Trump spokespeople Jason Miller and Hope Hicks didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
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The UN estimates that there are 8,000 rebel fighters in Aleppo Law & Politics |
The proposal put forward to shoot down Russian and Syrian aircraft over Eastern Aleppo in a bid to end the bombardment of this part of the city is wholly unrealistic. The West is not going to risk a war against a nuclear power and its Syrian ally in order to help the 250,000 to 275,000 civilians trapped there. To pretend anything else is empty bombast detached from the realities on the ground. The danger of such wild schemes is that they divert attention from more realistic plans to save the besieged from further suffering and death.
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XTX Markets Ltd. has emerged as a foreign-exchange powerhouse International Trade |
XTX Markets Ltd. has emerged as a foreign-exchange powerhouse, relying on programmers and mathematicians to fuel its rise into the global top five earlier this year. Now, after becoming a formidable player in currencies, XTX has its sights set on growing in stocks, commodities and bond markets.
But in a world where the difference between profit and loss can be tiny fractions of a second, XTX says it relies more on smarts than speed. Instead of building microwave networks to ferret out prices a microsecond before anyone else, XTX uses mathematical models that are tuned with massive data sets. It says its technology has computing power comparable to some of the world’s top supercomputers.
XTX’s rise comes amid a market shift: In an arms race where just about anyone can lease ultra-fast trading systems, it’s harder than ever to get an advantage simply by being fast. That may have opened up an opportunity for firms with sophisticated statistical models, says Greenwich Associates. As XTX co-chief Zar Amrolia sees it, a key trial for the London-based firm comes when it competes in even more markets that are dominated by high-frequency traders, particularly in the U.S.
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Ethiopian Premier Expects Economic Rebound When Emergency Ends Africa |
Ethiopia’s six-month state of emergency could be called off before that period is over, allowing the economy to recover quickly after months of violent protests and attacks on businesses, said Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn.
“I think it can quickly settle down and we don’t even need six months of the emergency period that’s been set,” Hailemariam said in an interview Tuesday in the capital, Addis Ababa. “We are pretty sure that we can regain it very quickly because Ethiopia has a solid ground, a solid foundation, it cannot be shaken by these kind of things.”
Germany is prepared to support Ethiopia on its “road toward democratization,” Merkel told reporters. “When you have a vibrant democracy, you need an opposition, you need a free media,” she said. “You have to see to it there’s a proper debate on the different views.” |
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The downside of authoritarian development Ethiopia cracks down on protest Economist Africa |
IT WAS meant to have been a time for celebration. When on October 5th the Ethiopian government unveiled the country’s new $3.4 billion railway line connecting the capital, Addis Ababa, to Djibouti, on the Red Sea, it was intended to be a shiny advertisement for the government’s ambitious strategy for development and infrastructure: state-led, Chinese-backed, with a large dollop of public cash. But instead foreign dignitaries found themselves in a country on edge.
One factor in the government’s decision was a spate of attacks on holiday lodges at Lake Langano, and on Turkish textile factories in Sebeta, both in the restive Oromia region south of the capital, on October 5th. The attackers were well-organised and armed, some of them reportedly mounted on motorbikes. These acts, officials suggest, were the final straw.
The government is rattled by the prospect of capital flight. An American-owned flower farm recently pulled out, and it fears others may follow. After almost a week of silence, the state-of-emergency law was a belated attempt to reassure foreign investors, who have hitherto been impressed by the economy’s rapid growth, that the government has security under control.
Still, the future is troubling. Over 500 people have been killed since last November, and tens of thousands have been detained. What began nearly a year ago as an isolated incidence of popular mobilisation among the Oromo people, who make up at least a third of the population and opposed a since-shelved plan to expand Addis Ababa into their farmland, has spread. It is now a nationwide revolt against the authoritarianism of the EPRDF and the perceived favouritism shown to a capital whose breakneck development appears to be leaving the rest of the country behind.
The young are frustrated. They feel that growth has yet to bring the broader prosperity promised by the government in return for their political obedience. Thanks in large part to foreign aid, expansive public spending supported by Chinese loans and an uptick (from a very low base) in foreign investment, Ethiopia was Africa’s fastest growing economy in 2015—a remarkable feat for a still largely agrarian country. But the expectations of an increasingly educated population have grown even faster. Despite big strides, a third of Ethiopians, who now number nearly 100m, still live on less than $1.90 a day.
This time Ethiopians are calling just as fiercely for regime change, and not just reform. Ethiopia, until recently a darling of Western donors and security hawks alike, is edging closer to the brink.
Conclusions
Repression is a sub-optimal Regime strategy.
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Missing in inaction Malawi's president disappears @theeconomist Africa |
AFRICA’S leaders are not known for their youthful vigour. So it is not surprising that their absence from the public eye, especially in a Western country with an abundant supply of good hospitals, tends to spark lurid rumours of illness and even death. Malawi’s president has certainly been doing his best impression of a missing person: having landed in New York on September 16th, Peter Mutharika has not been heard from since the UN General Assembly, which ended on September 26th.
Malawians have taken to Twitter with the hashtag #BringBackMutharika (a play on #BringBackOurGirls, which was used to rally support for Nigerian schoolgirls kidnapped by Boko Haram). One tweeted the presidents of America and Rwanda to ask if they had any news of the missing head of state. Speculation swirled that Mr Mutharika, who is in his mid-70s and whose brother died of a heart attack while president in 2012, was undergoing some kind of medical treatment.
Eventually the Malawian government put out an ill-tempered press release on October 9th, harrumphing that Mr Mutharika was in “very good and robust health” and still carrying out his duties while in America. It also reminded Malawians that spreading such “baseless, malicious and sickening” rumours was criminal. Then, at last, on October 11th it put a date on the dear leader’s return: October 16th, a full month after he left Malawi.
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Japan to expand Djibouti military base to counter Chinese influence Africa |
Japan will lease additional land next year to expand a military base in Djibouti, eastern Africa, as a counterweight to what it sees as growing Chinese influence in the region, three Japanese government sources said.
China is seeking closer ties with African nations that could help it gain access to natural resources and provide new markets. Beijing said late last year it would pump $60 billion into development projects on the continent, cancel some debt and help boost agriculture.
"China is putting money into new infrastructure and raising its presence in Djibouti, and it is necessary for Japan gain more influence," said one of the sources, with knowledge of the plan.
China in February began construction in Djibouti of its first overseas military facility, a coastal logistics base that will resupply naval vessels taking part in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.
Djibouti, which is about the size of Wales, is strategically located at the southern entrance to the Red Sea on the route to the Suez Canal. The tiny, barren nation sandwiched between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia, also hosts U.S. and French bases.
Since 2011, a Japanese Self Defence Force contingent of 180 troops has occupied a 12 hectare (30 acre) site in Djibouti, next to Camp Lemonnier, the U.S. base at the country's international airport.
From there, the SDF have operated maritime patrol aircraft as part of an international force, including China, that hunts pirates in the seas of the Gulf of Aden and off the coast of Somalia.
A Japanese Defence Ministry spokesman confirmed discussions were taking place.
"In addition to the land Japan has borrowed, it is considering leasing the neighboring land to its east," the spokesman said in response to a Reuters query. "Japan is now in negotiations with Djibouti government."
Japan is considering deploying C-130 transport aircraft, Bushmaster armored vehicles and extra personnel to the base but has not yet decided on how many, the sources said.
A month earlier Japan sent three C-130 aircraft from Japan to stand by in Djibouti for the evacuation of Japanese citizens trapped by fighting in South Sudan's capital, Juba.
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28-AUG-2016 And if you think about it The Indian Ocean is an appendage of the South China Sea. @thestarKenya TICADV1 Africa |
"Japan bears the responsibility of fostering the confluence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans" said the Prime Minister.
So I do foresee Japan [alongside the US and India] seeking to contain and triangulate China in the Indian Ocean.
Another issue post Fukushima is Japan's Energy Security. Here too I expect Japan to seek a serious Foothold in the nascent East African Energy supplies which run from Mozambique through Tanzania up to Kenya and inland. Japan's Energy Security is a key Issue. Interestingly if you look at the Japanese Investments, there are concentrated in Energy, Ports, logistics, and what I would call choke-points.
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South Africa "is not business as usual": S&P Africa head Reuters Africa |
The Africa head of ratings agency Standard & Poor's said on Thursday the current situation in South Africa was "not business as usual," citing "political turmoil and tension" as worrying signs ahead of a ratings decision on Dec. 2.
Addressing the Thomson Reuters Africa summit in Cape Town, Konrad Reuss also said S&P would be closely looking at South Africa's economic growth trajectory and fiscal targets.
Reuss was speaking two days after the national prosecuting authority said it planned to charge Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan for fraud, a ploy widely seen as an attempt by President Jacob Zuma to take control of the Treasury by removing the respected technocrat.
"This is not about political noise. We have political turmoil, political tension that can undermine structural reforms," Reuss said.
He also said that any attempts to undermine South African state institutions would be negative for the rating.
S&P rates South Africa at BBB-, the lowest investment grade rating one notch above junk, and it maintained that rating in June while keeping its outlook negative, citing slow economic growth and political concerns.
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Dividend or disaster? Nigeria grapples with demographic conundrum FT Africa |
Two years ago, the rapid growth of Africa’s — and Nigeria’s — population was touted as one of the attractions drawing investors and multinationals to the continent. With the number of Africans forecast to double to 2bn by 2050, chief executives and economists talked up the potential of an aspirant, youthful populace wanting to open bank accounts, buy the latest smartphone and splurge on consumer goods.
But the fall in commodity prices and resulting economic slowdown in many nations has refocused attention on the risks associated with a swelling youthful population, which is jobless, trapped in poverty and frustrated.
“Our people are an asset but we have to have the wherewithal to invest in them — without that, it’s a tragedy,” says a Nigerian government minister who did not want to be named. “It’s frightening.”
Africa’s population is growing at 2.6 per cent, while birth rates are slowing or stabilising in most parts of the world. But its economic growth has dipped to its lowest pace in more than two decades, with the World Bank forecasting that gross domestic product will expand by 1.6 per cent this year.
In Lagos, the commercial capital, the average is 4.1, less than half the average in Zamfara state, according to a 2013 US government-funded survey.
“People still do not see the connection between being poor and having four wives, 14 kids, and a limited plot of land and resources,” says Lamido Sanusi, emir of the northern state of Kano.
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10 NOV 14 ::Ouagadougou's Signal to Sub-Sahara AfricaThe Star Africa |
During the Arab Spring [now in the bleak mid-Winter], nearly all commentators spoke of how this North African wildfire could not leap the Sahara and head to sub-Saharan Africa. The reasons were that the State [incumbents] had a monopoly on the tools of violence and would bring overwhelming force and violence to bear.
We need to ask ourselves; how many people can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1,000, 10,000? This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent can’t go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina Faso achieved escape velocity.
Out of a population of 17 million people in Burkina Faso, over 60 per cent are aged between 17 and 24 years, according to the World Bank, and this is another point to note. The country’s youth flexed their muscles. What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.
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Kenya Airways to Halt Ticket Sales Ahead of Pilot Walkout Kenyan Economy |
Kenya Airways will stop selling tickets unless a pilots union calls off a seven-day strike to protest against Chief Executive Officer Mbuvi Ngunze as Africa’s third-largest airline strives to minimize losses from the walkout.
“The threatened action is already costing Kenya Airways significant losses as passengers have begun to make cancellations,” the airline part-owned by Air France-KLM said in an e-mailed statement on Thursday. The costs associated with selling flights and then not carrying passengers will be too great a financial burden, the carrier said.
KALPA, as the union is known, is demanding the resignation of Ngunze and Chairman Dennis Awori, saying they aren’t capable of executing a turnaround of the unprofitable carrier. Similar industrial action by KALPA in April cost Kenya Airlines $2 million in a day, the airline said. The strike is due to start Oct. 18.
Halting ticket sales “means management would be preparing for an extended strike period,” Eric Musau, an analyst at Standard Investment Bank, said by phone in Nairobi. “The best case is for them to agree on some sort of settlement. I’m not really sure it is for the pilots union to say whether management should go or not.”
Kenya Airways first-half earnings to be released at the end of this month will show a reduction in net loss to 5 billion shillings ($49.3 million) from 12 billion shillings, the airline said, without referring directly to the CEO. In that context, the strike is “unjustified and uncalled for,” it said. The company, which reported a wider full-year loss to 26.2 billion shillings on soaring finance costs, plans to cut 600 jobs and reduce the fleet by almost a third to return to profitability.
“Financing is the main headache,” Musau said. “Operationally they are turning around.”
KALPA’s position hasn’t changed since the strike was called on Oct. 11 and “there’s room for negotiations about those two people going,” union Secretary-General Paul Gichinga said by phone from Nairobi.
“With every passing day, it becomes very clear that Kenya Airways’s leadership lacks a clear vision, the right synergies and the willpower to lead the airline’s recovery efforts,” Gichinga said in an Oct. 11 statement. “A team with vital credentials in commercial aviation and business transformation urgently needs to be put in place to oversee Kenya Airways recovery.”
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