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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Tuesday 18th of October 2016

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How relevant is BRICS today? @AJEnglish #InsideStory Video

For several years now, the most talked-about trend in the global
economy has been the rise of developing markets.

Some economists expected Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
to lead the world to new economic heights.

But as the BRICS bloc met for its 8th summit in India's state of Goa,
those hopes appeared to be fading.

Most of the countries involved are struggling to deal with slowing
economies. They must find ways to forge closer business and trade
ties. But there are other concerns to be addressed too, including
national security and the threat posed by terrorism.

Presenter: Laura Kyle


Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs.

Aly-Khan Satchu, emerging markets economist

Anastasia Nesvetai-lova, director of City Political Economy Research
Centre at City University London.

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"How astonishing if you hail from New England, to find yourself living on the lip of the Mojave." @parisreview

I miss my teenage Daughters who are now at University in the United
Kingdom and I find myself sleeping in their room and last night
thinking I wonder if she used to hear those sounds - the sounds of the
house asleep -

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Russia offers brief pause in Aleppo bombing
Law & Politics

Russia offered an eight hour “humanitarian pause” in besieged eastern
Aleppo as European Union foreign ministers issued a sharp statement
accusing the Russian government of perpetrating likely war crimes in
the Syrian city.

Saudi Arabia, one of the chief backers of the Syrian opposition, had
said it would increase the flow and quantity of weaponry to moderate
fighters in Aleppo if Russia refused to agree to a full ceasefire.

 Juberi insisted the opposition may be able to withstand the Russian
Grozny-style assault saying “it has been able to stand up to the
regime for six years. The tide goes in and out”.

“I do not want al-Qaida-linked forces in Aleppo, or anywhere in Syria,
or indeed anywhere on the planet,” Jubeir said, adding Syria was
becoming “a magnet for extremists”. But he argued it was unreasonable
to demand al-Nusra forces leave before a full ceasefire.


Putin absolutely did not want Aleppo to metastasise into a Benghazi
and is prepared to do a Grozny. The Patrons of the various Proxies
appear unwilling to raise the White Flag.

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Saudi Arabia: Give Us Your Money and Don't Ask About Oil
Law & Politics

As they swapped their traditional white robes for business suits and
ties to meet with prospective investors ahead of the kingdom’s
first-ever international bond sale, Saudi government officials talked
at length about their vision for transforming the economy. When it
came to an oil price increasingly influenced by Iran and the proxy war
in Yemen they were less forthcoming.

“Every time anyone in our meeting asked about oil they pushed back,”
said Gregory Saichin, chief investment officer for emerging-market
bonds at Allianz Global Investors. He attended the investor day in
London, the first of four that end in New York this week after Los
Angeles and Boston. "The fact that they refused to take questions on
oil prices or how much is achievable on budget rationalization have
left investors with half a picture."

The sale marks a pivotal year for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom awoke to
the reality that collapsing oil prices had made its economic model
unsustainable. While the roadshow provides investors with a window on
a country that’s never before had to open its books, it’s also raised
questions about just how bad things might get.

The world’s largest oil exporter wants to raise at least $10 billion
this week from bonds due in five, 10 and 30 years, people familiar
with the plans have said

"This is a debut deal so there will be interest for sure in it, but
investors will have to price their undefined fiscal goals somehow," he

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Melania Trump dismisses Donald Trump's sexual assault comments as 'boys talk'
Law & Politics

“I don’t know that person that would talk that way, and that he would
say that kind of stuff in private,” she told CNN’s Anderson Cooper
Monday evening, explaining the he was "egged on" by then Access
Hollywood host Billy Bush. “I heard many different stuff – boys talk.

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And there is nothing new about this. Howard Zinn, in A People's History Of The United States quotes Henry Adams,who wrote to his friend about the presidential election:
Law & Politics

“We are plunged in politics funnier than words can express.  Very
great issues are involved  … But the amusing thing is that no one
talks about real interests.  By common consent they agree to let these
alone.  We are afraid to discuss them.  Instead of this the press is
engaged in a most amusing dispute whether Mr. Cleveland had an
illegitimate child and did or did not live with more than one

The choice is ours.

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Ten-year gilt yields climbed to the highest since the June 23 referendum
International Trade

“We’re marching resolutely higher on yields,” said Marc Ostwald, a
strategist at ADM Investor Services International Ltd. in London.
“With the pound doing what it’s been doing,” investors are starting to
revise up their inflation expectations, he said. “It’s going to be a
choppy ride.”

The annual inflation rate rose to 0.9 percent in September, the
highest since November 2014, economists surveyed by Bloomberg
predicted before official data due tomorrow. A market gauge of
price-growth expectations known as the 10-year break-even rate touched
a 2 1/2-year high of 3.07 percent last week, and was at 2.92 percent

The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt climbed to as high as 1.22
percent, and was up two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, at
1.12 percent as of 4:30 p.m. London time. The 1.5 percent security due
July 2026 fell 0.21, or 2.10 pounds per 1,000-pound ($1,217) face
amount, to 103.515.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.1016
Dollar Index 97.69
Japan Yen 103.91
Swiss Franc 0.9873
Pound 1.2227
Aussie 0.7670
India Rupee 66.755
South Korea Won 1133.34
Brazil Real 3.2053
Egypt Pound 8.8790
South Africa Rand 14.0903

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10
major peers, fell 0.2 percent as of 12:50 p.m. in Tokyo, after
dropping 0.3 percent on Monday. It touched a seven-month high on Oct.

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Bill Winters just got a lucky break. Bloomberg Gadfly
World Currencies

No, the Standard Chartered CEO hasn't found a magic wand to make
regulators overlook the bank's past misconduct. Nor has he discovered
potions to ward off Brexit risks or boost returns in a low-rate
environment. But it looks as if his sticky loans in India are finally
starting to move again.As much as $5 billion of the $13 billion that
the billionaire Ruia brothers are getting by selling Essar Oil, which
controls India's second-largest refinery, will go toward repaying
lenders in the holding company Essar Global, director Prashant Ruia
told Bloomberg News. Assuming StanChart's share of that kitty at $2.5
billion, that's half of Winters's $5 billion India problem solved.

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

This most recent leg up in palm oil prices in Malaysia makes
almost everything else look tame, boring. Prices +25% since July David


Gold 6 month INO 1259.03


Crude Oil 1 month Chart INO 50.64


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Congo's top court approves postponement of presidential election

The Constitutional Court in Democratic Republic of Congo said on
Monday it had approved a petition by the electoral commission to delay
a presidential election set for November, allowing President Joseph
Kabila to remain in office until April 2018.

Kabila was due to step down in December when his two-term mandate
expires and his opponents say they fear he intends to first prolong
his term in office and then change the constitution to enable himself
to run again.

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South African President Jacob Zuma appears increasingly vulnerable in a power struggle with his finance chief

South African President Jacob Zuma appears increasingly vulnerable in
a power struggle with his finance chief after a series of new
allegations emerged about the business dealings of members of a
wealthy family who are his friends and in business with his son.

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan is receiving growing support from
senior government officials as he faces fraud charges. On Friday, he
went on the offensive by disclosing in an affidavit to the High Court
that members of the Gupta family and companies they control have been
implicated in “suspicious transactions” worth 6.8 billion rand ($475
million) over the past four years.
The revelations upped the ante in a struggle for control of the
National Treasury that’s raged since Zuma, 74, named Gordhan finance
minister in December under pressure from business and ruling party
leaders after his decision to give the post to little-known lawmaker
David van Rooyen sparked a sell-off in the rand and nation’s bonds.

“There is an all-out fight,” Roland Henwood, a politics lecturer at
the University of Pretoria, said by phone. “It’s a political fight
that involves the use of institutions such as the National Prosecuting
Authority; it involves using the judiciary. And let’s be clear, the
one weakness of the Zuma administration has been the judiciary.”


Pravin Gordhan is proving a formidable and subtle adversary to the President

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +0.15% 2016

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.0903


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.52% 2016


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -11.58% 2016


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Standard & Poor's (S&P) has upgraded Kenya's credit outlook to stable from negative, citing sustained economic growth, reduced political tension and stabilising public debt.
Kenyan Economy

“Since our last review, government financing pressures have abated
somewhat, interest rates have come down, and the exchange rate has
remained stable.

“Additionally, we understand oversight at the Public Debt Management
Office has been bolstered and new debt-management systems have been
introduced. We view these factors as supportive of the government’s
creditworthiness,” says S&P in latest update.

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SIB says the full impact of the new law on net interest income will start to be felt from next year, with the "highest decline recorded by Co-op Bank (-24.3 per cent)."
Kenyan Economy

Co-op will be followed by Equity Group whose interest earnings is set
to fall 23.5 per cent.

Barclays is projected to see a decline of 15.2 per cent in interest
income while that of StanChart is seen falling 11.6 per cent.

The new law passed in August put a cap on cost of loans and also
stipulated the minimum interest rate payable on customers’ deposits.

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Kenyan opposition says any new Eurobond could become "odious debt" Reuters
Kenyan Economy

On Friday, S&P raised Kenya's outlook to stable from negative, saying
strong growth would offset other risks like the fiscal and external

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Tullow Seeks Truckers for Early Shipments of First Kenya Oil
Kenyan Economy

Tullow Oil Plc’s Kenyan unit said it’s seeking trucking companies to
transport crude from northwestern fields to the port city of Mombasa
as the East African nation rushes to export its first oil by mid-2017.

The work will involve the trucking of crude in insulated containers
from a production facility near Lokichar, Turkana county, to storage
facilities run by Kenya Petroleum Refineries Ltd., Tullow Kenya BV
said Friday in an advertisement in the Nairobi-based Daily Nation
newspaper. It said it plans to lease 100 ISO T11 standard insulated
containers with a minimum fluid capacity of 25,000 laters.

“It’s a pilot scheme ahead of full field development to help the
government of Kenya and the Kenya joint-venture partners better
understand the technical and logistical requirements of oil
production,” Tullow spokesman George Cazenove said in an e-mailed
response to questions. The company has discovered a waxy crude that
can harden if not heated, so “exactly what temperature the oil needs
to be transported at will form an important part” of the pilot
project, he said.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.39% 2016


136.39 -1.14 -0.83%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -19.73% 2016


3,243.68 -24.24 -0.74%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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N.S.E Today

International markets are a mixed bag.
Crude Oil in New York is trading above $50.00 a barrel and at $50.65
last near a 12 month high.
Sterling was last at 1.2263 and got a fillip from a 2 year High Inflation Print
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) upgraded Kenya’s credit outlook to stable from negative.
“Since our last review, government financing pressures have abated
somewhat, interest rates have come down, and the exchange rate has
remained stable''
“Additionally, we understand oversight at the Public Debt Management
Office has been bolstered and new debt-management systems have been
introduced. We view these factors as supportive of the government’s
creditworthiness,” says S&P in its latest update.
Trading was thin at the Securities Exchange today and clocked just 140.807m
The Nairobi All Share improved +0.24 points to close at 136.63
The Nairobi NSE20 firmed +5.99 points to close at 3249.67

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

The pilots' union KALPA called off an indefinite strike which was set
to begin today. Michael Joseph, a board director was named as the new
chairman to replace Dennis Awori.  However, the fate of Chief
Executive Mbuvi Ngunze, who pilots have said must go, was not
immediately clear [Nation] Kenya Airways surged +4.34% to close at a
Fresh multi-month high of 4.80. Mr. Joseph can argue There is a
''Michael Joseph'' Effect given that the share price has rallied
+26.315% over the last 4 weeks. Buyers outpaced Sellers and traded

Safaricom eased -0.50% to close at 19.75 and traded 909,500 shares. It
has not traded less than a million shares for eternity.

Deacons rebounded +9.52% to close at 6.90.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

NIC Bank was the most actively traded bank share and retreated -2.65%
to close at 27.50 and traded 1.163m shares worth 32.012m. NIC Bank is
-36.41% in 2016.

Standard Chartered rallied +3.37% to close at 184.00. Stanchart is the
only Banking share that has posted a positive return in 2016 at the
Nairobi Securities Exchange.
KCB Group firmed +0.92% to close at 27.25 and traded just 141,200 shares.
Barclays Bank eased -1.22% to close at 8.05 and traded 573,100 shares.

Jubilee Holdings firmed a shilling to close at 474.00 and traded
36,200 shares. Jubilee is -2.066% in 2016 and has outperformed its
Insurance Peers.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Total Kenya rallied sharply to close +3.45% to close at 18.00 and
match a 5 month High. Todays bullish price action was effected on good
volume action of 694,800 shares worth 12.506m. Total Kenya is -1.36%
Year To Date. Total Kenya reported a +37.349% H116 EPS acceleration.
KenolKobil firmed +3.603% to close at 11.50 and traded 462,900 shares.

EABL rebounded +1.49% to close at 272.00 and was trading at 280.00
+4.48% session highs at the Finish. EABL traded just 400 shares
signalling Sellers are now extinguished below 280.00.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2016

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