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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Wednesday 19th of October 2016

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site


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China GDP

Home Thoughts

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It's Jacaranda season Good Morning from Nairobi #JacarandaPropaganda

“I had all the characteristics of a human being—flesh, blood, skin,
hair—but my depersonalization was so intense, had gone so deep, that
my normal ability to feel compassion had been eradicated, the victim
of a slow, purposeful erasure. I was simply imitating reality, a rough
resemblance of a human being, with only a dim corner of my mind
― Bret Easton Ellis, American Psycho

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Trump's Wife Says 'Don't Feel Sorry For Me' in Comeback Attempt
Law & Politics

Desperate to shift the narrative after ten brutal days, Donald Trump's
wife made a personal appeal to voters to focus on issues other than
the sexual misconduct allegations that have wounded her husband's

"Don't feel sorry for me. I can handle everything," Melania Trump told
CNN's Anderson Cooper on Monday.

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The annual inflation rate accelerated to 1 percent from 0.6 percent in August. That's above the 0.9 percent pace forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey and is the highest since 2014.
International Trade

UK yield curve today (government borrowing costs on all its bills
and bonds) vs just before PM May's party conference speech. Jamie
McGeever ‏


Shares in the Swiss National Bank, one of the world's few traded
central banks, have been surging @markets


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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0996
Dollar Index 97.72
Japan Yen 103.44
Swiss Franc 0.9884
Pound 1.2325
Aussie 0.7684
India Rupee 66.705
South Korea Won 1122.14
Brazil Real 3.1881
Egypt Pound 8.8784
South Africa Rand 13.8800

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Commodity Markets at a Glance WSJ

Gold 6 month INO 1262.55

Crude Oil 1 month Chart INO 51.33 [Everyone is imbibing the Kool-Aid]


Dr. copper doing it again. Risk on. Aurelija Augulyte ‏


@Cartier's 'Sky Blue Diamond' is predicted to draw up to $25
million at @Sothebys


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Emirates says may cut Africa flights because of economic challenges

Foreign airlines flying to Nigeria have started to refuel abroad
because jet fuel supplies there have become more expensive and scarce
as the country battles a hard currency shortage.

Emirates has started a detour to Accra, Ghana to refuel its daily
Abuja-bound flight, a spokesman said last month; the airline had
already cut its twice-daily flights to Lagos and Abuja to just one.

"In certain African countries, the currencies have really gone down,
so we're reflecting on a number of these to look at where it's just
not worth us to travel," Clark said on the sidelines of an
International Air Transport Association event.

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Reuters quotes French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault as saying:

There is only one way to get out of the crisis and that is that the
president does not present himself and arranges elections."

Pushing back the election to an uncertain date in 2018 is not the
solution. There is a risk of violent demonstrations and repression."

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17-OCT-2016 :: Ethiopia's Reputation Shattered by Political Tensions @TheStarKenya

I recall reading  e Emperor by Ryszard Kapuściński and in that book
Kapuściński recounts the tale of Lulu, Haile Selassie’s lap dog that
was allowed to piss on the shoes of dignitaries, and the courtier
whose job for 10 years was to wipe those shoes clean with a satin
cloth.  at book also speaks to how the cushion bearer [ e Emperor was
very short and therefore had to perched on cushions so as not to be
beneath his subjects] became an all-powerful figure at the Imperial
Court. Kapuściński was subsequently trashed for his poetic licence in
his reportage but I accept his mea culpa:

“You don’t understand a thing. I’m not writing so the details add up –
the point is the essence of the matter.”

We are more than a decade down the road from that time and what is
clear now is that the dissent has metasized to the point that the
regime has seen fit to impose a six month state of emergency.

The government need to change tack and effect a course correction and
history shows us that this course correction is one of the most
difficult things to pull off.

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Shelves go bare in Egypt as soaring sugar prices catch government off guard

Borrowing a cup of sugar from your neighbour has rarely been so
contentious in Egypt.

At supermarkets across the country sugar has all but vanished,
prompting media talk of a crisis and pushing the state to rapidly
increase imports despite an acute dollar shortage and soaring global
prices of the sweetener.

Egypt consumes around 3 million tonnes of sugar annually but produces
just over 2 million tonnes, with the gap filled by imports, usually
between July and October when local beet and sugar cane supplies have
wound down.

But traders said high global sugar prices, which surged 50 percent
over the past year, combined with a rising black market rate for
dollars has made it too expensive and risky for many importers to
obtain sugar in recent months.

Importers have no choice but to turn to the black market to get
dollars, as banks ration meagre supplies, paying 15 Egyptian pounds or
more per dollar versus an official rate of 8.8. At such rates, more
and more traders say they can no longer buy.

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Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +17.24% 2016

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -3.79% 2016


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -11.77% 2016


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Uganda Reduces Key Rate to 13 Percent to Support Economy

The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis
points to 13 percent, saying slowing inflation gave it room to support
flagging growth.

Two of three analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted the reduction,
while one expected policy makers to keep the benchmark rate at 14
percent. The monetary policy committee has cut the rate by a total 300
basis points in the past three meetings.

“Given that core inflation is forecast to remain around the
medium-term target of 5 percent over the next 12 months, there is room
to support the domestic economic growth momentum especially against
the global economic slowdown,” Governor Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile
told reporters in the capital, Kampala. “Therefore, the BOU believes
that there is scope to ease monetary policy.”

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Fifteen years ago, a South African media company invested $34 million in an obscure Chinese Internet developer. Today that stake is worth $88 billion.

All Naspers Ltd., now Africa’s most valuable company, has to do is
figure out how to make money from its other properties: The whole
company is worth only $72 billion, less than its stake in
Shenzhen-based Tencent Holdings Ltd. Investors aren’t impressed with
Naspers’s operations in pay-TV, newspapers and e-commerce in such
countries as South Africa, Russia and India.
To win them over, Chief Executive Officer Bob Van Dijk has launched an
aggressive push to sell some assets, invest in others and expand
operations such as classified advertising into new markets. If it pays
off, comparisons with Tencent could become more flattering.

The valuation gap is an “opportunity for long-term investors who have
done their homework” on Naspers’s e-commerce components, said Ruan
Stander, a money manager at Cape Town-based Allan Gray, which owns
Naspers shares. “The headline accounting numbers can mislead you into
thinking these businesses are failing,” yet they need a period of
loss-making to establish themselves in the marketplace, he said.

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Kenya poised for another first in mobile money revolution @BD_AFrica #Gameofphone
Kenyan Economy

Kenya is poised to enter a new mobile money economy era, judging by
the steady rise in cashless transactions for goods and services.

A new study by consultancy firm Deloitte says Kenya is ripe for a
mobile money revolution and urges local businesses to align their
sales models with the emerging reality to stay ahead of the

The impending mobile payments revolution marks yet another first for
Kenya, which has been a front-runner in mobile payments backed by
innovations such as mobile money transfer service, M-Pesa.

The Deloitte report says the continued uptake of mobile payments by
consumers has reached a critical point where it is posing a threat to
traditional retail models based on cash payments.

The study found that 11 per cent of Kenyan consumers are already using
mobile payments – more than five times Nigeria’s two per cent, nearly
three times South Africa and Uganda’s four per cent and ahead of
Zimbabwe’s seven per cent.

The figures represent only transactions paid for using mobile money,
and excludes mobile money transfers.

The Deloitte study also found out that Kenya remains way ahead of its
African peers on the use of mobile money transfers. The study found
that 33 per cent of Kenyans are making mobile transfers compared to
Nigeria’s 11 per cent, South Africa (15 per cent), and Zimbabwe (11
per cent).

Kenyan consumers were also found to be adopting mobile money faster
than their African peers, placing the country in pole position to
becoming the region’s first digital economy.

“The level of adoption of these services is currently low and the gap
represents a significant monetization opportunity for operators,” the
Deloitte report says, adding that 50 per cent or more of the mobile
phone users had demonstrated a willingness to go cashless.

The report urges businesses to tap the anticipated mobile money
opportunities by investing in understanding consumer behaviour to stay
ahead of the competition.

“The holy grail of retail right now is understanding shopper behaviour
live. As they move around you want to impact their decision to buy
while they are in the store,” Deloitte Advisory Leader for East Africa
Rodger George said when he released the report on consumer trends.

Prof George, who is also a visiting professor at the University of
Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business , said Kenyan businesses must
do more to tap into the huge opportunities that are emerging in the
mobile phone economy.

The study found that 71 per cent of Kenyans look at their phones
within five minutes of waking up with a further 53 per cent looking at
their phones before sleeping.

“As smartphones become ever more embedded in our lives, we see new
opportunities and challenges for the mobile sector, retailers and
advertisers,” said Deloitte.

Some 53,000 respondents across 30 countries, including South Africa,
Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe were surveyed.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.23% 2016


Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -19.58% 2016


3,249.67 +5.99 +0.18%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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@KenyaAirways share price data here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           4.80
Total Shares Issued:          1496469035.00
Market Capitalization:        7,183,051,368

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@Safaricomltd share price data here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  0.05/-
Closing Price:           19.75
Total Shares Issued:          40065428000.00
Market Capitalization:        791,292,203,000
EPS:             0.95
PE:                 20.789

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N.S.E Today

In the International Markets The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is set to
push the Sell Button on a Record Sale of $17.5 Billion of Sovereign
The Bank of Uganda reduced interest rates by 100 basis points.
The Nairobi All Share rowed back -0.50 points to close at 136.13.
The Nairobi NSE20 eased back 10.67 points to close at 3239.00
Equity Turnover clocked 262.487m more than the previous session but
still way below par for 2016.

N.S.E Equities - Agricultural

Sasini Tea and Coffee ratcheted +7.799% higher to close at 19.35 and
traded light just 10,100 shares.

N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services

Kenyanwallstreet reported that BlackRock Fund Advisors acquired 72.08
Million Safaricom Shares worth Ksh 1.4Billion earlier this month
further confirming Safaricom's accession on to the Radar of the
World's Biggest Investors. Safaricom eased -0.25% to close at 19.70
and traded 1.854m shares. I would surmise that BlackRock will be
coming back for more shares.

Kenya Airways continues to reap a ''Michael Joseph'' dividend and the
share price today surged +8.33% to close at 5.20 a 2016 closing High.
Todays move was executed on good trading volume of 1.859m shares.
Kenya Airways is +50.72% over the last 4 weeks and is now +6.122% in
2016. The share price which was ''bombed out'' is rebounding on the
basis that Mr. Joseph has the bona fides to secure the long term
Funding and Future of the Pride of Africa.

@KenyaAirways share price data +6.122% in 2016


TPS Serena Hotels eased -1.91% to close at 18.00 and traded 1.035m
shares. TPS Serena has seen good two way volume action at this level
of -28.00% in 2016.

N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment

NIC Bank was the most actively traded Banking share for the second
consecutive session. NIC Bank closed unchanged at 27.50 [-36.41% in
2016] and traded 1.658m shares worth 45.61m making that a cumulative
total 2.821m shares and 0.44% of its shares traded over 2 sessions.

NIC Bank share price data here -36.41% 2016


Standard Chartered firmed +0.54% to close at 185.00 and traded 59,100
shares. Stanchart is +16.15% on a Total Return Basis in 2016 vastly
outperforming its Peers and the broader Indices. A Lot is going right
here and at the PLC Level and the share price action in 2016 is an
accurate reflection of that fact.
Barclays Bank eased -1.24% to close at 7.95 a 3 week Low. Barclays
Bank is -32.72% in 2016 on a Total Return Basis but part of that
retreat is related to Barclays PLC's very public announcement of their
desire to exit Africa.

N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied

Atlas which has been delisted in London [where to held a listing] did
not trade. Investors are -50% in 2016 after taking a fearful battering
in 2015. Atlas was in the Oil and Gas support business but is now
promoting on-line gambling in Nigeria.

by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2016

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