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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Friday 28th of October 2016

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The Latest Daily PodCast can be found here on the Front Page of the site


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12-SEP-2016 :: Therefore, my second trade of the year is to buy put options on 10- year bonds @TheStarKenya

Therefore, my second trade of the year (my first was to be long, the
Yen from January) is to buy put options on 10- year bonds because this
is going to pop, and when it pops, the wizardry won’t work anymore,
and at that moment there is going to be one heck of a move.

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12-SEP-2016 :: Investors are now holding bigger positions at these current artificially suppressed levels. If volatility spikes, positions are going to be reduced en masse.@TheStarKenya

Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

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Above the village of Passu, a teenager checks his Facebook. Many residents here are Ismaili @NatGeo

Above the village of Passu, a teenager checks his Facebook. Many
residents here are Ismaili, followers of a moderate branch of Islam. A
sign on the mountain slope commemorates the time in 1987, when the
Ismaili imam, the Aga Khan, visited the remote region.

Young men and women began leaving to study in these cities, and they
came back for summer holiday dressed in new, hip fashions. Shops
multiplied along the road, selling new spices, sugary snacks, and
sodas. Biryani rice, a favorite dish from Punjab, now often replaces
the traditional turnip soup or buckwheat pancakes during celebrations.

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Ngugi Wa Thiongo's Dreams in a Time of a War

Years later when I read T.S. Eliot's line that April was the cruellest
month, I would recall what happened to me one April Day in 1954, in
chilly Limuru, the prime Estate of what, in 1902, another Eliot, Sir
Charles Eliot, then Governor of colonial Kenya, had set aside as White
Highlands. The Day came back to me, the now of it, vividly.


I actually drive along the Limuru Road [having dropped off Hannah at
the bus Pick Up in Gigiri - we actually drive past the US Embassy
every morning @ 610 am] on my way to work and this morning found
myself crawling in Traffic with the window down listening to BBC News
day. Next Thing I know this well-dressed Jogger is reaching in trying
to take my Phone. I was lightning fast [pretty impressed with myself]
and hung onto the Phone. He strolled off at a leisurely pace and I
thought about jumping out and chasing him.

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'Why? Why? Why?' Man Asks, Stabbing U.S. Embassy Guard in Kenya NYT

NAIROBI, Kenya — The shots rang out in front of the American Embassy
on Thursday afternoon.

Boosh! Boosh!

A knife-wielding assailant attacked an armed Kenyan police officer
guarding an entrance to the embassy’s visa section, which was closed
at the time.

Witnesses said the assailant had walked up to the officer, pulled out
a knife and began shouting: “Why? Why? Why?” He stabbed the officer in
the face, and the officer struggled to push him away. One witness said
the men tumbled, with the assailant landing on top of the officer.

The officer, a member of the General Services Unit, a paramilitary
branch of the Kenyan police entrusted with guarding embassies and
other important installations in Kenya, was carrying an assault rifle.
He jerked up his weapon and at least four shots were fired: Boosh!
Boosh! Boosh! Boosh!

People jumped behind cars. Others hit the pavement. Some motorists
driving past the scene ducked behind their steering wheels.

Other police officers sprinted from different directions, their own
Kalashnikovs cocked. When the embassy’s alarm klaxons started wailing,
American diplomats crawled under desks and tables.

“Duck and cover!” a loudspeaker blared out. “Get away from the windows!”

“This was a suicide mission,” said Boniface Wanyama, a private
security guard at an office complex next to the embassy. “You attack a
G.S.U. officer with a knife? You do that only to kill and be killed.”

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The Waste Land TS Eliot

The Waste Land


APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
Memory and desire, stirring
Dull roots with spring rain.
Winter kept us warm, covering            5
Earth in forgetful snow, feeding
A little life with dried tubers.
Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee
With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade,
And went on in sunlight, into the Hofgarten,      10
And drank coffee, and talked for an hour.
Bin gar keine Russin, stamm’ aus Litauen, echt deutsch.
And when we were children, staying at the archduke’s,
My cousin’s, he took me out on a sled,
And I was frightened. He said, Marie,     15
Marie, hold on tight. And down we went.
In the mountains, there you feel free.
I read, much of the night, and go south in the winter.

“You gave me hyacinths first a year ago;          35
They called me the hyacinth girl.”
—Yet when we came back, late, from the Hyacinth garden,
Your arms full, and your hair wet, I could not
Speak, and my eyes failed, I was neither
Living nor dead, and I knew nothing,      40
Looking into the heart of light, the silence.
Öd’ und leer das Meer.

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Trump team has "three major voter suppression operations under way"
Law & Politics

That unnamed official said the Trump team has "three major voter
suppression operations under way," targeted at three distinct groups
that Clinton needs for a big electoral victory.

Those constituencies, as Businessweek describes, are "idealistic white
liberals, young women, and African Americans."

Although "voter suppression" sounds ominous — and some on social media
were quick to claim the revelation as evidence of illegal action on
the part of the Trump campaign — the tactics described are really just
advertising that isn't attempting to convert voters to Trump, just
turn them away from Clinton.

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Inside the Trump Bunker, With 12 Days to Go BBG
Law & Politics

On Oct. 19, as the third and final presidential debate gets going in
Las Vegas, Donald Trump’s Facebook and Twitter feeds are being manned
by Brad Parscale, a San Antonio marketing entrepreneur, whose buzz cut
and long narrow beard make him look like a mixed martial arts fighter.
His Trump tie has been paired with a dark Zegna suit. A lapel pin
issued by the Secret Service signals his status. He’s equipped with a
dashboard of 400 prewritten Trump tweets. “Command center,” he says,
nodding at his laptop.

Parscale is one of the few within Trump’s crew entrusted to tweet on
his behalf. He’s sitting at a long table in a double-wide trailer
behind the debate arena, cheek to jowl with his fellow Trump staffers
and Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee. The
charged atmosphere and rows of technicians staring raptly at giant TVs
and computer screens call to mind NASA on launch day. On the wall, a
poster of Julian Assange reads: “Dear Hillary, I miss reading your
classified emails.”

10:02 p.m.: Trump, onstage, criticizes Hillary Clinton for accepting
foreign money. “Fire it off!” Parscale barks. Instantly, a new Trump
tweet appears: “Crooked @HillaryClinton’s foundation is a CRIMINAL
ENTERPRISE. Time to #DrainTheSwamp!”
10:04 p.m.: Trump blames Clinton for $6 billion that went missing
during her tenure at the State Department (actually a bookkeeping
error). “Hit that hard,” shouts Jason Miller, Trump’s senior
communications adviser. Parscale already has: “Crooked’s top aides
were MIRED in massive conflicts of interest at the State Dept. WE MUST
10:09 p.m.: Trump deploys a carefully rehearsed WikiLeaks attack:
“Podesta said some horrible things about you—and he was right.” The
trailer erupts. “There it is!” someone shouts. “Push that,” Parscale
commands. Within seconds, Trump’s roiling social mediasphere is
bestowed with a curated Clinton burn from their leader: “Bernie
Sanders on HRC: Bad Judgement [sic]. John Podesta on HRC: Bad
Instincts #BigLeagueTruth.”

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New Cold War Chills Annual Kremlin Gathering of Foreign Experts
Law & Politics

The new Cold War is starting to look a lot like the old one, and
Russian and U.S. foreign-policy experts at an annual gathering with
Kremlin officials this week appear out of ideas on how to even start
defusing it.

The risk that the world’s two nuclear superpowers might “sleepwalk”
into a hot conflict is causing a rare degree of alarm among the
specialists from across the U.S., Europe and Asia brought in for the
Valdai Club’s week of discussions with Russian analysts and senior

One senior official told of a Cabinet meeting where President Vladimir
Putin reported on a “high risk’’ incident in which his military jets
buzzed the U.S. Navy in the Black Sea. When some at the table cheered
with phrases like, “they deserve it,’’ Putin shut them down, saying,
“are you crazy?’’ according to the official, who spoke on Valdai’s
traditional condition of anonymity.

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Law & Politics

Saudi Arabia has suffered a crushing defeat in Yemen. The conflict
appears to be only unpromising for them. Houthis and troops loyal to
ex-president Saleh firmly hold North Yemen and are conducting military
operations in the province of Najran on Saudi territory. South Yemen
is experiencing intermingled control by Saudi coalition troops,
Arabian Peninsula al-Qaeda, ISIS, and southern Yemeni separatists.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has also been defeated in Syria. It
failed to oust Bashar Assad and since the reorientation of Turkey
towards Russia and Iran, the Saudi position has become more
precarious. The so-called Riyadh Syrian opposition group was for the
most part controlled by the Turks. The Saudis’ leverage over the
Syrian process in Riyadh is getting smaller. Conducting two military
campaigns at once - the open war in Yemen and the proxy war in Syria -
is proving increasingly difficult. This is understood by the Saudis’
close allies, the United States. Thus, the US has recognized the
futility of the military campaign in Yemen, as just yesterday it was
reported that the United States has withdrawn its planning group from
the country which provided needed intelligence to the Saudis. The
group has now been based in Bahrain.

In turn, Mohammed ibn Salman, who is only 31 years old, is quite
ambitious and seeks at all costs to take the throne of his father.
Some analysts even foresee a soft coup following King Salman’s death
since his son is the second in line to the throne after his uncle
Muhammad ibn Naif. For the US, he is quite a new player. The war in
Yemen was an initiative of this Salman. With the help of a victorious
war, he sought to increase his own prestige and status, but

Mohammed ibn Salman has periodically visited Russia, apparently
seeking support from the Russian side. Recently, the special
representative of the Russian President for the Middle East and
Africa, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, met with
him. These contacts explain the growing importance of Russia in the
Middle East against the background of the successful and consistent
operation in Syria. Russia is also awaited in Yemen. Former Yemeni
President Ali Abdullah Saleh stated yesterday that Russia is ready to
provide ports and bases for the stationing of Russian soldiers.
Controlling Yemen means control over the most important transport
artery: the path from the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Red Sea
and Mediterranean.

Russia is naturally not interested in a Saudi victory in Yemen. And
this is impossible. However, there is the possibility that Russia
could help the Saudi coalition achieve an “honorable defeat”, initiate
peace processes, and thereby allow Muhammad ibn Salman to come out of
the Yemen adventure with a minimal loss of face. On the other hand,
Russia’s actions in Syria could undermine the position of those
opposing him. Meanwhile, Yemen will be free from Saudi influence and
occupation forces.

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There are half a billion tweets a day
Law & Politics

Taken together, the hundreds of billions of tweets that have been
created over the past 10 years represent a constantly updating corpus
of human conversation. Dorsey, Twitter’s co-founder and chief
executive officer, sometimes brings up Salman Rushdie’s allegorical
novel Haroun and the Sea of Stories, about a boy who keeps the sea
from being poisoned by evildoers who value silence over speech. In
Dorsey’s imagining, Twitter is the sea and he is the boy.

But if Twitter provides a rare outlet for criticism of repressive
regimes, it’s also useful to those regimes for tracking down and
punishing critics. In September 2012 a Saudi Twitter user named Bader
Thawab was arrested for tweeting “down with the House of Saud.” In
March 2014 an eight-year prison sentence was upheld for a Saudi man
who’d mocked the king and religious officials on Twitter and YouTube.
The following May, a Saudi man in a wheelchair named Dolan bin Bakheet
was sentenced to 18 months in prison and 100 lashes for using Twitter
to complain about his medical care. In all, there have been dozens of
Twitter-related prosecutions in Saudi Arabia, according to Human
Rights Watch.

But if Twitter provides a rare outlet for criticism of repressive
regimes, it’s also useful to those regimes for tracking down and
punishing critics. In September 2012 a Saudi Twitter user named Bader
Thawab was arrested for tweeting “down with the House of Saud.” In
March 2014 an eight-year prison sentence was upheld for a Saudi man
who’d mocked the king and religious officials on Twitter and YouTube.
The following May, a Saudi man in a wheelchair named Dolan bin Bakheet
was sentenced to 18 months in prison and 100 lashes for using Twitter
to complain about his medical care. In all, there have been dozens of
Twitter-related prosecutions in Saudi Arabia, according to Human
Rights Watch.

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Brexit Doomsayers Defied as Economy Expands and Nissan Invests
International Trade

U.K. GDP rises 0.5%, beating estimates on services strength
Car giant commits to Sunderland plant with new production

The U.K. economy performed better than anyone expected since the vote
to leave the European Union and, as a bonus, Nissan affirmed its
commitment to the U.K. with a decision to build two new car models at
its plant in Sunderland.

“This is a really long, drawn-out process and we’ve just seen the
early start of it,” former Bank of England policy maker Danny
Blanchflower said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The suspicion
is there’ll be more slowing to come -- we’re in a fairly benign world
with perhaps a tsunami coming.”

As the Office for National Statistics announced at 9:30 in London that
growth was 0.5 percent in the third quarter -- above the 0.3 percent
forecast -- it said there was “little evidence of a pronounced effect”
from the referendum result. GDP rose 2.3 percent compared with a year
earlier. The pound temporarily erased its decline and gilts rose.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0917
Dollar Index 98.90
Japan Yen 105.28
Swiss Franc 0.9936
Pound 1.2174
Aussie 0.7570
India Rupee 66.845
South Korea Won 1144.94
Brazil Real 3.1656
Egypt Pound 8.8792
South Africa Rand 13.8649

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"There is a report that the Saudis and their Gulf compatriots are willing to cut output by 4 percent," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC

“Whether that’s enough or not, we’ll see. There’s increasing amounts
of skepticism in this market, which is keeping prices near these
multi-week lows.”

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Crude Oil 1 Year Chart INO 49.62 [Sell into this strength]

#Coal prices extend gains beyond $100 a tonne #Australia Javier Blas


Australia #coal price rally is now steepest on record #Reuters
Henning Gloystein ‏


There it is again.. Iron Ore prices in China close to topping 500
yuan per ton  ‏@DavidInglesTV


Iron ore prices in China are on track for the longest run of gains in 3 years.

Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

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The oil effect African economies are growing at very different speeds @TheEconomist

HOW are sub-Saharan African economies doing? It depends on where you
look, says the IMF in its latest survey of the continent, which is
published today. Regional growth will slow to just 1.4% this year, the
most sluggish pace for two decades. Things look grim in Nigeria, which
is mired in recession. But Ivory Coast, a short flight away, is
thundering along at a growth rate of 8%. Similar contrasts are found
across the continent. Better to talk of two Africas, says the IMF,
moving at different speeds.

The big divider is resources. As commodity prices have slumped, so too
have the fortunes of big exporters. As a group, resource-rich
countries will grow on average by 0.3% of GDP, says the IMF. Take
oil-rich Angola, once the fastest-growing country on the continent: it
will not grow at all this year, and is wrestling with inflation of
38%. Commodity-exporting countries saw the value of their exports to
China almost halve in 2015. Public debt is rising sharply. Exchange
rates are falling. Private consumption has collapsed.

Things look very different in countries which are less
resource-dependent. They will grow at 5.5% this year. They have been
helped, of course, by falling oil prices, which makes their imports
cheaper. But they are stronger in other ways too. In east Africa, for
example, a wave of public investment in infrastructure has boosted

The numbers should be read with a pinch of salt: GDP figures are only
ever a best guess, and Africa’s large informal economy makes the
calculation even harder. Talk to traders in Uganda, for instance, and
you will hear a story very different to the IMF’s forecast of 5%
growth. The overall lesson, though, is clear. If you rely on
commodities, diversify—or face the consequences. That is easier said
than done. Look to east African countries, hailed for their
innovations in mobile banking, who are suddenly now touting a fresh
source of riches: oil and gas.

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May 2015 ''The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

PAUL Virilio (born 1932) is a French cultural theorist and urbanist.

In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack),
becomes in other words a producer of speed.’’

As we look around the world today, we can see a battle for the
‘street’ from the streets of Bujumbura to the streets of Baltimore. In
November last year, I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan
Africa and concluded that: We need to ask ourselves how many people
can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000,

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discov- ered in the
throes of the event.

Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +0.88% 2016

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.89 [Gordhan is winning
hence the recent stability in the rand]


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Divorce Judge Asks What 'Africa's Youngest Billionaire' Is Worth

Ashish Thakkar, who co-founded Africa banking conglomerate Atlas Mara
Ltd. with ex-Barclays Plc head Bob Diamond, is a 35-year-old
"billionaire" whose divorce fight has been prolonged thanks to a
complex web of offshore assets.

The question of how much Thakkar is worth -- he says 445,532 pounds
($544,000) while his wife claims his wealth is far greater -- is
coming under scrutiny in a U.K. divorce court. A judge in the London
family court has denied Thakkar’s request for a final divorce decree
until a determination of his real worth.

"This is a case where the wife says her husband is a billionaire,”
Judge Philip Moor said in the ruling that shows the difficulty courts
have in making a fair assessment of wealth. “All the assets are
offshore. They are held in very complicated structures that have
changed within the recent past. The situation is one where it can be
very significant if you are a wife or a former wife."

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Carbacid reports FY16 EPS -5.161% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           15.05
Total Shares Issued:          254851988.00
Market Capitalization:        3,835,522,419
EPS:             1.47
PE:                10.238

Carbacid Investments Limited FY 2015/ 16 Results through 31st July
2016 vs. 31st July 2015
FY Turnover 831.761m vs. 809.719m +2.722%
FY Gross profit 532.806m vs. 533.246m -0.083%
FY Administrative expenses [173.511m] vs. [168.475m] +2.989%
FY Operating profit 359.295m vs. 364.771m -1.501%
FY Finance and other income 219.573m vs. 169.046m +29.889%
FY Fair value [loss]/ gain on equity investments [31.120m] vs. 14.150m
FY Profit before taxation 547.748m vs. 580.467m -5.637%
FY Profit for the year attributable to shareholders 375.568m vs.
393.863m -4.645%
Final dividend 0.70 vs. 0.70
EPS – Basic and diluted 1.47 vs. 1.55 -5.161%

Company Commentary

unrealised loss on equity investments of 31m [versus Gain of 14m FY15]
In 2015 there was a gain on revaluation of investment property of 32m
operating profit declined by only 1.5%
Dividend 70cents a share


resilient results especially when you consider they were lapping some
FY Gains in FY15

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Marshalls (East Africa) Ltd. reports FY16 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           8.20
Total Shares Issued:          14393106.00
Market Capitalization:        118,023,469
EPS:             -1.21
PE:                 0.000

The Kenyan franchise holder for Peugeot.

FY Revenue 81.247m vs. 105.254m -22.809%
FY Cost of sales [60.570m] vs. [79.548m] -23.857%
FY Gross profit 20.677m vs. 25.706m -19.564%
FY Other operating income 35.680m vs. 15.202m +134.706%
FY Provisions [5.726m] vs. [69.394m] -91.749%
FY Administrative expenses [62.316m] vs. [60.679m] +2.698%
FY Other operating expenses [18.956m] vs. [24.555m] -22.802%
FY Operating [Loss] [30.641m] vs. [113.720m] -73.056%
FY Finance income/ [costs] [11.290m] vs. 21.592m -152.288%
FY [Loss] before tax [17.431m] vs. [20.393m] -14.525%
FY [Loss] for the year [17.431m] vs. [20.393m] -14.525%
[Loss] per share – basic and diluted [1.21] vs. [1.42] -14.789%
Shareholders’ funds 241.795m vs. 259.226m -6.724%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year 7.940m vs. 11.900m -33.277%
No dividend



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Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd reports H1 16 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           3.25
Total Shares Issued:          40000000.00
Market Capitalization:        130,000,000
EPS:             0.26
PE:                 12.500

Kenyan manufacturer of PVC Tiles.

H1 Revenue 247.545m vs. 344.228m -28.087%
H1 Profit from operations 22.702m vs. 35.636m -36.295%
H1 Finance costs [5.850m] vs. [6.845m] -14.536%
H1 Operating profit 16.852m vs. 28.791m -41.468%
H1 Profit/ loss for the year from continuing operations 12.843m vs.
21.584m -40.498%
H1 Profit/ loss attributable to shareholders 8.106m vs. 13.624m -40.502%
EPS 0.203 vs. 0.341 -40.469%
Total Assets 1.287668b vs. 1.470477b -12.432%
Total equity 777.067m vs. 866.583m -10.330%
No dividend


Market Cap is $1,300.000.00

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy

Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.09% 2016


136.82 +0.24 +0.18%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -20.77% 2016


3,201.55 -3.14 -0.10%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here


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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2016

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