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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
Monday 31st of October 2016

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Petraske was his generation's most influential bartender.

The standards of mixing and service he set (first at New York’s Milk &
Honey, then at bars ranging from London to Los Angeles to Melbourne)
emerged within his lifetime as ideals taken for granted by bars all
over the world. Atmospheric cocktail-den details that were simply
expressions of his old-fashioned tastes in clothing and music—personal
preferences for suspenders and swing jazz—went on to become, as abused
by imitators, clichés in a few short years. The very concept of the
21-century speakeasy, a hush-hush watering hole guarded by passwords
and esoteric entrances, owes itself to Petraske’s desire to run a tiny
bar without annoying his neighbors.

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Final Days Trump's advisers are working hard to plan their own futures while riding out the roller-coaster end of the campaign. NYMAG
Law & Politics

“I’m on the battlefield right now, which is amazing,” Donald Trump
said as he surveyed the Gettysburg National Military Park. “When you
talk about historic, this is the whole ballgame.” It was the afternoon
of October 22, and Trump was speaking by phone shortly after
delivering a speech at the place where Lincoln pledged to unite a
divided country.

What they described was an unmanageable candidate who still does not
fully understand the power of the movement he has tapped into, who
can’t see that it is larger than himself.

As Bloomberg Businessweek recently reported, Trump’s son-in-law–cum–de
facto campaign manager Jared Kushner is building a proprietary
database of some 14 million email addresses and credit-card numbers of
Trump supporters. That list could form the foundation of a new Trump
media company. According to one Republican briefed on the talks,
Kushner has approached Wall Street bankers and pitched ideas for media
start-ups. “How do we monetize this?” he’s asked. (Through a
spokesperson, Kushner denied having such meetings.)

The paradox is that Trump’s political brand and his commercial brand
are very much at odds. “The people who are passionate about his brand
can’t afford it right now,” a real-estate executive who knows Trump
told me. And those who can afford it are less likely to want to be
associated with his name. “He might have to go into multifamily
rentals. Maybe he could put gold fixtures in a trailer park,” said the

“This thing was doable if we did it the right way,” one adviser told me.

“The best thing we can do is to have you move into a cave for the next
four months,” Manafort told Trump during a meeting. “If you’re not on
the campaign trail, the focus is on her, and we win. Whoever the focus
is on will lose.”

In late April, Manafort assured RNC members that Trump would pivot to
a more presidential “persona.” And for a while, it worked. Trump began
using a teleprompter, cut back his TV appearances, and (mostly)
avoided courting scandal. His poll numbers climbed, until he was tied
with Clinton.

“ ‘The election is about the American people, it’s not about you,’ ”
Manafort told Trump, according to a person briefed on the
conversation. Trump countered with Breitbart’s report on Khan’s
purported belief in Sharia. “ ‘He’s not running for president,’ ”
Manafort shot back. “ ‘The Clintons did this to us to waste our time
getting off message.’ ”

“Paul Manafort didn’t understand him,” a longtime Trump confidant told
me. “Trump is going to do whatever the fuck he wants. You have to
trick him into doing what you want.”

“Think of the bunker right before Hitler killed himself. Donald’s in
denial. They’re all in denial.”

But one can’t imagine that Trump, having tasted the ego fuel of tens
of thousands of people chanting his name at a rally, will be able to
forgo that feeling for long. He speaks of his followers fondly and is
as bullish on them as he is on himself. “I think the movement stays
together,” Trump told me in Pennsylvania as his motorcade sped to the
airport. “Look, I just left Gettysburg, and all of the people are
waving and shouting, ‘We love you, Mr. Trump.’ And I love them.
There’s a movement here that’s very special. There’s never been
anything like it.”

He couldn’t be more right about that.

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A Scandal Too Far? Huma Abedin, Hillary Clinton, and a Test of Loyalty
Law & Politics

Then Carlos Danger happened.

Anthony D. Weiner, the husband of Mrs. Clinton’s closest aide, Huma
Abedin, was running for mayor of New York when news broke that he had
continued to exchange lewd messages with women online after the
practice cost him his congressional seat. This time, he used the
embarrassing Spanish-inspired moniker.

The tawdry story line and Ms. Abedin’s closeness to Mrs. Clinton made
the events explode far beyond New York, dragging Mrs. Clinton’s name
into messy headlines about penis pictures, Mr. Weiner’s descriptions
of his sexual appetites and his online paramour named Sydney Leathers.

Now, with Mrs. Clinton seemingly on the cusp of winning the White
House, Mr. Weiner, who once described himself as “a perpetually horny
middle-aged man,” has pulled her into another drama. Federal
investigators looking into his sexual messaging with an underage girl
stumbled upon thousands of emails potentially pertinent to the F.B.I.
inquiry into Mrs. Clinton’s private email server.

At the State Department, Ms. Abedin served as deputy chief of staff to
Mrs. Clinton. Emails released by the State Department captured the
closeness of their relationship. A jet-lagged Mrs. Clinton once
emailed Ms. Abedin at 12:21 a.m. to take her up on an offer to come
over to Mrs. Clinton’s house for a chat. “Just knock on the door to
the bedroom if it’s closed,” she wrote.

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South Koreans have been riveted for weeks by a scandal involving the president and a shadowy adviser accused of being a "shaman fortuneteller" by opposition politicians. NYT
Law & Politics

The elusive figure, Choi Soon-sil, is a private citizen with no
security clearance, yet she had remarkable influence over President
Park Geun-hye: She was allowed to edit some of Ms. Park’s most
important speeches.

The news channel Chosun showed video of presidential aides kowtowing
to her after she apparently gave them orders. She apparently had an
advance copy of the president’s itinerary for an overseas trip, the TV
station said.

She even had power over the president’s wardrobe, overseeing the
design of her dresses and telling her what colors to wear on certain

But for most South Koreans, the real drama is that Ms. Choi is the
daughter of a religious figure whose relationship with Ms. Park had
long been the subject of lurid rumors. The figure, Choi Tae-min, was
often compared to Rasputin here, and now critics say his daughter is
playing the same role.

Mr. Choi was the founder of an obscure sect called the Church of
Eternal Life. He befriended Ms. Park, 40 years his junior, soon after
her mother was assassinated in 1974. According to a report by the
Korean intelligence agency from the 1970s that was published by a
South Korean newsmagazine in 2007, Mr. Choi initially approached Ms.
Park by telling her that her mother had appeared in his dreams, asking
him to help her.

Mr. Choi was a former police officer who had also been a Buddhist monk
and a convert to Roman Catholicism. (He also used seven different
names and was married six times by the time he died in 1994 at the age
of 82.) He became a mentor to Ms. Park, helping her run a
pro-government volunteer group called Movement for a New Mind. Ms.
Choi became a youth leader in that group.

According to the report by the KCIA, as the country’s intelligence
agency was then called, Mr. Choi was a “pseudo pastor” who had used
his connection to Ms. Park to secure bribes.

But gossip about their relationship — vehemently denied by Ms. Park —
has haunted her since. In a 2007 diplomatic cable made public through
WikiLeaks, the American Embassy in Seoul reported rumors that Mr. Choi
“had complete control over Park’s body and soul during her formative
years and that his children accumulated enormous wealth as a result.”
One such tale held that Ms. Park, who has never married, had his
child. (She has denied that.)

In a televised address to the nation on Tuesday, Ms. Park acknowledged
that she had let Ms. Choi edit some of her most important speeches.

“I deeply apologize to the people,” Ms. Park said. She described Ms.
Choi as an old friend who had stood by her through painful times, like
the years after the killings of her mother and father.

Mr. Lee said that Ms. Choi called Ms. Park “sister” and had her own
teams of advisers who meddled in critical government decisions,
including the appointment of cabinet ministers and the closing of the
Kaesong industrial park, a joint project of North and South Korea,
after the North’s nuclear test in January.

“Ms. Choi effectively told the president to do this and do that,” the
newspaper quoted Mr. Lee as saying. “There was nothing the president
could decide alone.” Ms. Park’s office did not comment on the report.

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Turkey suspends air strikes over Syria DEBKAfile October 30, 2016, 7:54 AM (IDT)
Law & Politics

Turkey has halted air support for its Oct. 22 ground incursion into
Syria in response to a vow by Damascus to shoot down Turkish Air Force
planes over Syrian skies. An official in Ankara added that Turkey had
also cut down on its flights in other parts of Syria. DEBKAfile: This
decision came after Syrian air defense missiles supplied by Russia
“locked in” on Turkish jets, an action that Damascus would not have
undertaken without a nod from Moscow.

The Turkish army, which occupied a 5,000 sq. km enclave in northern
Syria earlier this month, is left now without air cover and in no
position to implement President Tayyip Erdogan’s plans for military
intervention in the Syrian conflict.

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Law & Politics

“THE STRUGGLE FOR SYRIA,” as Patrick Seale titled his 1965 classic,
has escalated steadily since Britain seized the territory from Turkey
in 1918. The British turned it over to France in 1920 and took it back
from Vichy in 1942. Following nominal independence in 1946, Syria
became a theater of Cold War rivalry between the United States and the
Soviet Union. The stream of military coups between 1949 and 1970
concluded with the Hafez al-Assad putsch that left Syria in the
Kremlin camp. Assad, however, proved anything but subservient to his
superpower benefactor. The struggle for Syria continued in desultory
fashion as Syria irritated Moscow by flirting with the U.S. in Lebanon
and sending troops to support the American reconquista of Kuwait in
1991. The U.S. soon reverted to form, labeling Syria a “terrorist
state” and condemning both its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and
its alliance with Iran. In 2011, the struggle became a war. The U.S.
and Russia, as well as local hegemons, backed opposite sides, ensuring
a balance of terror that has devastated the country and defies

“On the eve of civil war,” Phillips writes, “Syria and the Middle East
appeared deceptively stable.” It turned out that the region was static
rather than stable. Hints of imminent change were few, but not
invisible. President Barack Obama intimated that the United States,
like Britain 40 years before, was reducing its involvement in the
region. America’s Iraq invasion, like the Suez fiasco for the British
and French in 1956, had stretched American resources and made similar
adventures less appealing. Obama admitted to a Cairo audience in 2009,
“America does not presume to know what is best for everyone.” While
this should have opened space for public participation in Arab
governance, it instead left the impression of a vacuum to be filled.

Despite the failure of revolution everywhere but Tunisia, outside
powers seized with alacrity on Syrian dissent to bring down a regime
whose cardinal sin was its affiliation with Shiite Iran, Hezbollah,
and Russia. While Syrian protestors sought relief from a security
system that inhibited their basic rights, the outsiders who rallied to
them, notably Saudi Arabia and Qatar, hardly stood as models of
freedom and elected government. Syrian activists at first demanded
reforms within the system and later a change of leadership without
destroying, as the U.S. had done in Iraq, the state itself. The
sheikhs of Riyadh and Doha, however, wanted to replace Bashar al-Assad
with someone from the majority Sunni community who would enforce a
style of dictatorship closer to their own Wahhabi beliefs and hostile
to Iran.

Whenever Assad’s back is against the wall, Russia and Iran pitch in
with more help. When the rebels retreat, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and
Turkey send more fighters and weapons. If Hillary Clinton becomes
commander in chief on January 20, 2017, her promise of an
American-patrolled no-fly zone will lead to direct confrontation
between Russian and American warplanes and draw the U.S. deeper into a
war that Phillips believes Obama was right to avoid. She should read
this book first.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies

Euro 1.0962
Dollar Index 98.46
Japan Yen 104.82
Swiss Franc 0.9881
Pound 1.2183
Aussie 0.7609
India Rupee 66.771
South Korea Won 1144.01
Brazil Real 3.2046
Egypt Pound 8.8959
South Africa Rand 13.7445

Dollar Yen Chart Aurelija Augulyte 104.82


And you thought the Swiss had ditched their franc cap... @markets


Paul Virilio’s ‘Wealth is the hidden side of speed and speed the
hidden side of wealth’


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May 2015 ''The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''

PAUL Virilio (born 1932) is a French cultural theorist and urbanist.

In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack),
becomes in other words a producer of speed.’’

As we look around the world today, we can see a battle for the
‘street’ from the streets of Bujumbura to the streets of Baltimore. In
November last year, I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan
Africa and concluded that: We need to ask ourselves how many people
can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000,

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discov- ered in the
throes of the event.

Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg +0.21% 2016

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO


Egypt EGX30 Bloomberg +19.29% 2016


Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -4.71% 2016


Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -14.25% 2016


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31-OCT-2016 :: Mozambique from Boom to Bust - A Cautionary Tale @TheStarKenya

Mozambique popped onto the global radar in 2011 when huge gas reserves
were discovered off-shore. We visited in 2012 and I recall the wife
being seriously astonished when we jumped in a taxi and the driver
turned out to be Portuguese.

I said ‘’Mozambique could be the next Qatar.’’ as we stuffed ourselves
with wonderfully flavour some tiger prawns.

Interestingly, I was a guest of  e State of Qatar at their Doha Forum
earlier this year and caught up with President Guebeza in person. I am
surprised that Qatar has not seized itself of the Mozambique
opportunity at these rock-bottom prices. e IMF predicted a 24% GDP
expansion for 2021 when gas production was expected to begin.

I returned in May 2014, for the IMF’s flagship Africa Rising
conference. By that time, Maputo’s sky-line was a sea of cranes.
Further North, Tete was booming.

 Then I noticed that Credit Suisse and VTB sold some ‘’Tuna’’ Bonds on
behalf of Mozambique.  The story around these bonds was opaque.

“$850m was borrowed to buy a fleet of tuna fishing boats so that
Mozambique could export fish to the European Union (EU) and elsewhere,
but the boats do not fulfil EU specifications,” said one NGO worker
based in Maputo.

At the most, this is gross misconduct by the government. “$850m was
taken out, but from what I can see there is only around $50m worth of
assets as a result,” said a lawyer based in Maputo.  Things became
murkier and murkier.

Not only did Ematum [The Tuna Fishing Company] fall short of its
targets, but $500-million of the “tuna bond” was found to be for
maritime security and had to be reallocated to the defence budget.
Even when they did sail in Ematum’s early days, the fleet never caught
the amount of fish needed to pay off the debt. Ematum’s results
pointed to the fleet catching just $450 000 of tuna a year, compared
with sales of $18-million forecast at that stage of its life in a 2013
feasibility study circulated by the government.

Further loans were uncovered spanning not only Empresa Moçambicana de
Atum (Ematum), but other companies Proindicus and Mozambique Asset
Management (MAM).  The Total is around $2 billion.

Africa Confidential reported that Chancellor Angela Merkel asked
President Nyusi when he met her in Berlin on 19 April 2016, ‘Where is
the money?’ and also, ‘Are you in charge?’

Things have accelerated to the down side further.

Mozambique’s Eurobonds [which were ‘’restructured’’ Tuna Bonds] have
fallen by as much as 24 cents on the dollar to 57.18 cents in the
dollar, the yield is above 20%.

Finance Minister Adriano Maleiane told investors Oct 25 that the
country was in “debt distress” and wouldn’t be able to make an
interest payment on the debt due in January.  The Metical has crashed
over 60% this year. Debt to GDP is estimated to be 131% by the Finance

 e International Monetary Fund will withhold any further funding to
Mozambique, which told creditors this week it wants to restructure its
commercial loans, while the country is still classified as
debt-distressed, a spokesman for the lender said.

“In line with Fund policies, we cannot disburse funds in a situation
where we think the debt is not sustainable,” Gerry Rice told reporters
in Washington  ursday, according to a transcript of the briefing
posted on the IMF’s website. “As with any country, to be able to
disburse we need to know that the debt is sustainable. ”

There are plenty of lessons to be learnt from this tale.  The first is
around leveraging the balance sheet. If you are leveraging the Balance
Sheet [this is something SSA has been doing aggressively] then you are
mortgaging the future.

If you are mortgaging the future, you need to make sure can first
afford the mortgage payments and second that the investments you are
making are going to provide a meaningful return on your investment.
There is very little ROI on increasing salaries for Civil Servants.

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IMF Says No Mozambique Aid Talks While Country in Debt Distress

The International Monetary Fund will withhold any further funding to
Mozambique, which told creditors this week it wants to restructure its
commercial loans, while the country is still classified as
debt-distressed, a spokesman for the lender said.

“In line with Fund policies, we cannot disburse funds in a situation
where we think the debt is not sustainable,” Gerry Rice told reporters
in Washington Thursday, according to a transcript of the briefing
posted on the IMF’s website. “As with any country, to be able to
disburse we need to know that the debt is sustainable.”

Mozambique’s Eurobonds have fallen by as much as 24 cents on the
dollar to 57.18 cents in the dollar since Finance Minister Adriano
Maleiane told investors Oct. 25 that the country was in “debt
distress” and wouldn’t be able to make an interest payment on the debt
due in January. The IMF halted aid disbursement after the government
admitted to about $1.4 billion in undisclosed loans in April,
prompting other donors to stop budget support too.

The government plans on reaching a deal with investors to restructure
its external debt by the end of the year, to allow it to conclude an
agreement with the IMF on a new program early next year, according to
the Finance Ministry. This timing is “terribly ambitious,” Stuart
Culverhouse, an economist at Exotix Partners in London, said in a note
to clients Friday.

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Kenya Economic Update: Economic Growth Continues Despite Challenging Global Environment World Bank
Kenyan Economy


The new Kenya Economic Update shows the country’s strong economic
growth is expected to continue, with forecasts of 5.9% in 2016 and
6.1% by 2018
Despite global economic weaknesses, the report notes Kenya’s growth
has remained consistently solid, driven by investment and private
The report the country ready itself for potential downside risks that
could derail growth, and recommends improving the productivity of
public investment to further accelerate growth potential

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Kenya Power & Lighting Company Ltd reports FY16 PAT +1.668% Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  20/-
Closing Price:           8.85
Total Shares Issued:          1951467045.00
Market Capitalization:        17,270,483,348
EPS:             3.87
PE:                2.28

The energy company in charge of national transmission, distribution
and retail of electricity throughout Kenya.

FY16 Earnings

FY Non-fuel revenue 87.081b vs. 77.836b +11.878%
FY Foreign exchange losses recovered 8.782b vs. 3.344b +162.620%
FY Fuel exchange recovery 12.512b vs. 25.584b -51.094%
FY Revenue 108.375b vs. 106.764b +1.509%
FY Non fuel costs [51.400b] vs. [44.460b] +15.610%
FY Foreign exchange cost [6.175b] vs. [2.820b] +118.972%
FY Fuel costs [12.690b] vs. [25.835b] -50.881%
FY Total power purchase costs [70.265b] vs. [73.115b] -3.898%
FY Gross margin 38.110b vs. 33.649b +13.257%
FY Other revenue 7.470b vs. 6.406b +16.609%
FY Transmission and distribution costs [28.651b] vs. [24.217b] +18.309%
FY Operating profit 16.929b vs. 15.838b +6.888%
FY Interest income 965m vs. 1.381b -30.123%
FY Finance costs [5.811b] vs. [4.965b] +17.039%
FY Profit before tax 12.083b vs. 12.254b -1.395%
FY Profit after tax 7.556b vs. 7.432b +1.668%
FY Other comprehensive income [169m] vs. [1.996b] -91.533%
EPS – Basic and diluted 3.87 vs. 3.81 +1.575%
Dividend per share 0.50 vs. 0.50
Shareholders’ equity 65.616b vs. 59.204b +10.830%
Cash and cash equivalents at close of year 5.503b vs. 28.231b -80.507%

Company Commentary

Electricity Sales grew by 3.6% combined with an improved average yield
led to 11.9% increase in Sales revenue
Interim Dividend of 20cents a share plus 30cents a share Final Dividend.
customer growth rate averaging 30% annually....


On a Trailing P/E Ratio of 2.28. With a Dividend Yield of 5.64. looks
egregiously priced.

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Mumias Sugar reports FY 16 EPS -3.09 Earnings here
Kenyan Economy

Par Value:                  2/-
Closing Price:           1.10
Total Shares Issued:          1530000000.00
Market Capitalization:        1,683,000,000
EPS:             -3.09

FY Earnings through 30th June 2016

FY Revenue 6.285917b vs. 5.531357b +13.641%
FY Cost of sales [8.040339b] vs. [7.191569b] +11.802%
FY Gross loss [1.754422b] vs. [1.660212b] +5.675%
FY Administrative expenses [2.125735b] vs. [2.934414b] -27.558%
FY Loss after tax [6.067381b] vs. [6.307257b] -3.803%
FY Loss for the year [4.731026b] vs. [4.644801b] -1.856%
EPS [3.09] vs. [3.04] -1.645%
Total equity 7.693783b vs. 5.932044b +29.699%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year [2.194548b] vs.
[2.002149b] -9.610%

Company Commentary

Surplus on revaluation of property, plant and equipment. 9.183849b versus 0.
Total comprehensive income 1.761739b versus [4.709761b]
''continued decrease in Kenya's sugar production mainly due to cane
shortage, as cane farmers in Western Kenya move to produce other crops
due to low returns from cane farming''
acute cane shortage experienced in Q4 saw sugar production and
recoveries heavily curtailed negating the benefits gained in the
earlier quarters of the year
Co, processed 1,215,566 metric tonnes of sugar cane which is +9.4%
versus the previous year
Sugar production increased by 6% to 75,073 metric tonnes
Ethanol production increased by 20% to 12,367,072 litres
Sugar and ethanol revenues increased by 10% and 37%
Water business discontinued.
Co. did not export any power to the national grid [2015 - 14,692 MWH]
Total Revenues increased by +13.6%
Total overhead costs decreased by 9%
Comes safeguards due to expire in February 2019
No Dividend.


Surging Raw Sugar prices have not lifted earnings.

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Bostwana's Choppies to inject Sh755m into loss-making Ukwala
Kenyan Economy

Choppies says it will invest the cash to open 12 more stores in the
local subsidiary over three years.
The move comes as Ukwala made a net loss of Sh270.1 million in the
year ended June.
Choppies says Ukwala currently has eight stores in the major towns
including Nakuru and Kisumu

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
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October 2016

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