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Friday 04th of November 2016 |
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Macro Thoughts |
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Pound Set for Best Week Since March on Court Ruling, BOE: Chart Africa |
The pound headed for its biggest weekly gain versus the dollar since March as it received a double boost from a court decision and the Bank of England on Thursday. Sterling climbed after a High Court ruling that the government needs parliament’s permission to begin negotiations to exit the European Union stoked speculation that this may delay or soften the terms of Brexit. The U.K. currency also rose as the BOE said it’s no longer expecting to cut interest rates this year.
Home Thoughts
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"@HumaAbedin is beautiful brilliant, and chic in the eyes of everyone who has worked with her" Winter @voguemagazine Law & Politics |
“Huma is beautiful, brilliant, and chic in the eyes of everyone who has worked with her,” Wintour, editor-in-chief of Vogue magazine, said Wednesday in a statement provided by the campaign. “Secretary Clinton has benefited from her support and wisdom for twenty years.”
The Michigan-born, Saudi-raised Abedin has achieved something of cult following among some Clinton backers, especially some of her most prominent women donors. It stems from a combination of her sense of style and her grace and in part because of her role as a gatekeeper who enjoys almost a daughter-mother proximity to the Democratic nominee.
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Brennan said, the digital age creates enormous opportunities for espionage. But it also creates vulnerabilities. Law & Politics |
The information age “has totally transformed the way we are able to operate and need to operate,” Brennan told Reuters in a series of interviews. “Most human interactions take place in that digital domain. So the intelligence profession needs to flourish in that domain. It cannot avoid it.”
When a new American diplomat arrives for duty at the U.S. embassy in Moscow or Beijing, CIA official say, Russian and Chinese intelligence operatives run data analytics programs that check the “digital dust” associated with his or her name. If the newcomer’s footprint in that dust – social media posts, cell phone calls, debit card payments – is too small, the “diplomat” is flagged as an undercover CIA officer.
“The days of a black passport, a fistful of dollars and a Browning pistol are over.”
“The value the CIA can fundamentally add is to steal secrets, and the ultimate secret is intention,” the often inscrutable aims of foreign leaders, Carle said. “Obtaining that is a human endeavour.”
“I look out at the next 10, 20, 30 years, and I look at technology, I look at complexity, I look at the global environment,” Brennan said. “I think CIA really needs to up its game.”
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Assad: US waging proxy war in Syria against Russia & Iran Law & Politics |
The US’ secret collaboration with terrorists is the reason why all attempts at a ceasefire and political transition in Syria have so far failed, the Syrian leader told Serbian newspaper Politika. The interview was also published by the Syria’s SANA news agency.
“Supporting the terrorists is a war of attrition against Syria, against Iran, against Russia, that’s how they look at it. That’s why not only this ceasefire – every attempt regarding ceasefire or political moving or political initiative, every failure of these things, the United States was to blame,” the Syrian president said.
Assad was referring to the deal negotiated by the US and Russia in September, which it was hoped would pave the way for a lasting truce in Syria. In practice, the agreement was derailed by armed groups, which had rejected it from the very beginning. The US pledged to convince the so-called moderate opposition to stick to the bargain and separate from terrorists, who would then be legitimate targets for a joint Russian-American air campaign. Washington didn’t deliver on this promise, however.
According to the Syrian president, a lasting ceasefire was not what Washington sought from the deal in the first place.
“They always ask for ceasefire only when the terrorists are in a bad situation, not for the civilians. And they try to use those ceasefires in order to support the terrorists, bring them logistic support, armament, money, everything, in order to re-attack and to become stronger again,” he said.
Sometimes the US support for terrorist groups goes through its allies such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Assad believes, while occasionally they provide direct support even to Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), a group that the Washington-led coalition was supposedly formed to defeat. An example of this came during an American attack on Syrian Army troops near Deir Ez-Zor, which happened while the US-Russian truce was in force, and which the US claimed was the result of a mistake.
“They attacked a very big area. They didn’t attack a building to say, ‘we made a mistake.’ They attacked three big hills, not other groups neighboring these hills,” he said. “In less than one hour, ISIS attacked those hills. It means that ISIS gathered their forces to attack those hills. How did ISIS know that the Americans would attack that Syrian position? It means they were ready, they were prepared.”
“You have a black-and-white picture; very, very bad guy against very, very good guy. It’s like the narrative of George W. Bush during the war on Iraq and on Afghanistan,” he described.
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"This war is yours. Turn the dark night of the infidels into day, destroy their homes and make rivers of their blood." By RUKMINI CALLIMACHI Law & Politics |
After a nearly yearlong silence, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-declared caliph of the Islamic State, released a blistering audio recording imploring his forces to remain firm in the face of the American-backed Iraqi offensive in Mosul and excoriating those who might consider fleeing.
“Know that the value of staying on your land with honor is a thousand times better than the price of retreating with shame,” he said, adding: “This war is yours. Turn the dark night of the infidels into day, destroy their homes and make rivers of their blood.”
The terrorist leader’s tone in the new recording at times suggested an air of panic, as if he was trying to shore up his fighters and enjoin them to continue battle, promising them heavenly rewards: “Oh soldiers of the caliphate, if you stand in the line of fire from America’s jets and its allies, then stand firm.”
He added: “Know that if the sky collapses onto the earth, God will make room for the believers to breathe.” Mr. Baghdadi
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Hope Defines @BarackObama's Legacy in Africa @VOANews Africa |
When Barack Obama was elected U.S. president in 2008, the event was hailed across Africa. He is the son of a Kenyan, after all, and many on the continent considered Obama one of their own.
"If we in Africa were looking up to him, to come with a magic wand to solve our problems, then I think our expectations were misplaced," said Muluka.
Muluka argues that because Obama was hindered by frequent questions about his birthplace, especially during his first term in office, he couldn't be perceived as favoring the continent, and therefore did not do as much as he might have otherwise.
But as president, Obama made four trips to sub-Saharan Africa, visiting six countries. He challenged African governments on issues like human, LGBT and women's rights.
He set the tone during his first visit in 2009, to Ghana, when he challenged some African leaders.
"Now, make no mistake: History is on the side of these brave Africans, not with those who use coups or change constitutions to stay in power," Obama said. "Africa doesn't need strongmen. It needs strong institutions."
A highlight of his Africa foreign policy has been his emphasis on trade, not just aid.
"I think President Obama built a framework for the U.S. corporate sector to get engaged with Africa by consistently engaging through the business councils and so forth," said Aly-Khan Satchu, a Nairobi-based financial analyst. "It sort of 'de-risked' Africa in a lot of U.S. corporate minds. And I think that was an important achievement that the president made."
Obama also made a point of addressing African youth, a group he focused on throughout his time in office.
"When it comes to the people of Kenya, particularly the youths, I believe there is no limit to what you can achieve," Obama said during his state visit to Kenya in July 2015.
And Obama's message of hope to Africa and its young people may be what defines his legacy here.
"He's shown Africa a higher path, and I think he's done this generally. That's been his politics," Satchu said. "He's always lifted people's heads up and said, 'Look where you can go.' "
Obama launched the Young African Leaders Initiative in 2010 to help promising young people across the continent prepare for leadership positions. More than 250,000 people have joined the YALI network, and 1,000 fellows attended leadership programs at U.S. colleges and universities in 2016.
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A Cashless Economy in Zimbabwe? With Little Cash, There's Little Choice NYT Africa |
HARARE, Zimbabwe — The time came for worshipers to surrender their tithes on Sunday morning. But instead of dropping bills into a collection plate, the congregants at a large Pentecostal church rose and filed toward the deacons clutching hand-held card-reading machines. With a swipe, they were done.
“Yes, it looks like shoppers in a supermarket,” said Mercy Chihota, 33, a member of the church, the United Family International Ministries, in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital. “It feels good, but strange at the moment, because it’s very new.”
Of all the places speeding toward a cashless economy, this nation in southern Africa may not come to mind. About 90 percent of Zimbabweans work in the informal economy, where cash is usually a must. The country, despite the spread of cheap smartphones in recent years, remains low-tech. Blackouts are part of everyday life.
But Zimbabwe is hurtling toward a plastic future for a simple reason: It is running out of cash, specifically the American dollars it adopted in 2009 before abandoning its own troubled currency. Anxious about their nation’s political and economic troubles, many Zimbabweans have been hoarding dollars or taking them out of the country. Banks have slashed daily withdrawal limits. A.T.M.s now sit empty.
Debit card machines are proliferating in Zimbabwe’s cities — not only in churches but also in supermarkets, betting parlors, nightclubs, parking areas and every other business happy to accept paper cash but unable to dispense it. If there are no card-reading machines around, many shoppers now text payments on their cellphones.
The change has been revolutionary for what was a mostly cash economy until early this year. It has helped ease the cash crisis, which paralyzed business a few months ago. In a fragile economy reeling from a global collapse in commodity prices, a historic drought and lack of investor confidence, the spread of plastic is the one bright spot.
“We had to migrate to electronic platforms as a matter of necessity, rather than as a matter of choice,” said Clive Mphambela, an advocacy and marketing executive at the Bankers Association of Zimbabwe. “Zimbabwe is unique in many, many respects, and this is just one of them.”
“If one wants to swipe, let them swipe,” said Douglas Rowedi, an elder at the Church of the Pentecost Zimbabwe. “If one is able to bring cash, let them bring it as it is.”
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South Africa's Jacob Zuma faces a no-confidence vote in parliament next week with his presidency mired in crisis Africa |
Mmusi Maimane, leader of the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), told a news briefing in Cape Town that the no-confidence debate and vote was scheduled for Nov. 10.
"This motion should not be viewed as a partisan motion - we do not see it as a DA motion," he said. "I know there are ANC MPs and cabinet ministers who have had enough. They have an opportunity to actually do something about their anger next week Thursday."
Zuma has survived his two previous no-confidence votes this year, largely backed by the support of his ANC (African National Congress) which controls about two-thirds of the assembly.
A senior party official told Reuters that ANC lawmakers were unlikely to break ranks and support the motion this time round.
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Egypt took the unprecedented step of allowing its currency to trade freely Africa |
Among other changes announced by the central bank early Thursday was a 300 basis point increase to the key lending rates.
Egypt’s currency crunch has crippled business activity and fueled shortages in key commodities, fanning discontent in a country already frustrated by higher taxes and faster inflation.
Egypt “announces its decision to move, with immediate effect, to a liberalized exchange rate regime in order to quell any distortions in the domestic foreign currency market,” the central bank said on its website.
The central bank set a tentative exchange rate of 13 pounds per dollar, plus or minus 10 percent, until it holds an auction at 1 p.m. local time. The currency will float freely after the sale, according to two bankers familiar with the decision. The pound has repeatedly dropped to records in the black market and depreciated to 17.98 per dollar in Bloomberg’s most recent survey of currency dealers.
The currency’s 12-month non-deliverable forwards plunged more than 10 percent to a record 16.6758 per dollar at 9:45 a.m. in Cairo.
Conclusions
Next up President Buhari
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Zombie Banks Stalk Africa With Mergers One Way to Limit Risk @Business Africa |
Africa’s many small and under-capitalized banks, laden with bad debt, are inflicting more pain on already embattled economies.
Regulators may have no choice but to force lenders to consolidate or close. A third of Nigeria’s 21 banks may be under-capitalized. Much smaller Uganda has 25 banks and last month suffered one collapse. Kenya has had three failures since August last year and with 40 lenders, boasts almost one bank per million people. Angola’s 30 or so banks may need to boost reserves by $4 billion, while a Mozambican lender was rescued by the central bank in September. Ghana is telling banks to combine and raise funds through the stock market.
“The consequences of inaction will be disastrous,” said Robert Besseling, a Johannesburg-based executive director at business-risk consultancy Exx Africa. “Uncontrolled bank failures pose significant contagion risks to other banks, state-owned enterprises and private businesses.”
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@Safaricomltd reports H1 FY17 EPS +33.3% Earnings here Kenyan Economy |
Par Value: 0.05/- Closing Price: 20.75 Total Shares Issued: 40065428000.00 Market Capitalization: 831,357,631,000 EPS: 0.95 PE: 21.842
6 month Period through 30th September 2016 H1 Service revenue 98.006590b vs. 84.913683b +15.4% H1 Total revenue 102.094106b vs. 97.224275b +5.0% H1 Direct costs [32.499462b] vs. [30.022259b] +8.3% H1 Other expenses [20.991407b] vs. [19.998389b] +5.0% EBITDA 50.805572b vs. 38.838467b +30.8% H1 Depreciation, impairment and amortisation [16.344004b] vs. [13.545616b] +20.7% H1 Profit before tax 34.489817b vs. 26.402729b +30.6% Basic and diluted EPS 0.60 vs. 0.45 +33.3% Shareholders’ funds 82.939473b Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 43.028951b vs. 19.042871b +126.0%
Key Highlights
Customer numbers +6.00% to 26.61m Mobile Data Customers active in the last 30 days +13.7% to 14.93m M-PESA Customers +12.2% to 17.6m Service Revenue +15.4% to 98.01b Voice Revenue +1.1% to 45.7b [46.6% of total revenues from 53.2%] SMS Revenue +8.1% to 8.6b [8.8% of total revenues from 9.4%] Mobile Data Revenue +46.3% to 13.4b Fixed service revenue +29.1% to 2.4b M-PESA Revenue +33.7% to 25.9b [26.4% versus 22.8% of Total Revenues] Non-Voice Revenue now 53.4% of service revenues EBITDA increased by +30.8% 50.81b Total service revenue grew 15.4 per cent while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation grew 30.8 per cent to Ks50.8bn. However, Ks3bn of this comprised of a one-off write-back after a legal dispute was resolved in the company’s favour. On an underlying basis, ebitda grew 22.2 per cent. Safaricom, raised its full-year ebitda guidance from Ks89bn-Ks92bn to Ks94bn-Ks97bn, including the Ks3bn write-back.
Some Tweets from the investor Briefing this morning
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