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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Thursday 10th of November 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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12-SEP-2016 :: Mirrors on the ceiling, The pink champagne on ice @TheStarKenya
Africa


Mirrors on the ceiling,
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device” Last
thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man,
“We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! “

What is clear is that we are at the fag-end of this party.

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Some tranquility on a Sunday afternoon. Lake Magadi. Mutua Matheka ‏@truthslinger
Africa


In the early morning, Hannah and I discuss the World. She has become
just so engaged and this morning was asking me about how the electoral
college works. Then she said ''Did you make any money Dad on Trump?''
because we had been discussing the Prediction markets and how Trump
was a rank 4-1 Outsider [I tell myself I am teaching her Maths and not
speculation] just a few hours before the final result and i had been
predicting trump was going to win.

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President Elect Trump @markets
Law & Politics


Conclusions


Trump won this all ends up. It really is an extraordinary Triumph. And
yesterdays quite gracious speech might be signalling a Pivot.
Nevertheless He has made a lot of promises and the open question is
how many of those promises he will fulfil and which ones because on a
continuum they are some serious outlier promises.

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Law & Politics


Said Bremmer, “There are three aspects of American leadership that
will be affected by the Trump administration and the growing
geopolitical recession: the United States' role as world policeman,
architect of global trade, and cheerleader of global values.”

Conclusions

SELL THAT - I think Trump will be more like Reagan and Reagan achieved
a great deal.

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Republicans control banksy ‏@thereaIbanksy
Law & Politics


- Senate
- House
- Maj. of Governors
- Supreme Court pick
- Presidency

This hasn't happened since 1928 #ElectionNight

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'Forgotten' white vote powers Trump to victory @FT
Law & Politics


The New York businessman was proved right on Tuesday as he rode a wave
of anger with economic change, dogwhistle racial politics and pledges
to crack down on immigration and rip-up trade agreements to a stunning
upset win.

One demographic above all took him there: the once solidly Democratic
blue collar white voters that may now be known as Trump Democrats.
“The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no
longer,” the New York businessman declared in his victory speech.

According to exit polls, across the US Mr Trump carried the white
voters who made up 70 per cent of the electorate by a 58-37 margin
over Hillary Clinton.

Among white voters without a university degree that margin grew to
67-28. But even among those with a degree, exit polls showed him
carrying the day 49-45, despite surveys that for months had predicted
they would be part of a demographic firewall benefiting Mrs Clinton.

Tuesday’s scream of the angry white voter was heard loudest in rust
belt states such as Ohio and Indiana and threw into play previous
Democratic strongholds such as Michigan and Pennsylvania — neither of
which had voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988.

Mr Trump’s campaign and his appeal to white voters had an ugly side,
unleashing a previously unseen level of vitriol in American politics
with his calls to prosecute his Democratic rival provoking chants of
“lock her up!” at his rallies. He was also criticised widely for
courting the vote of white nationalists and the “alt-right” movement
that has taken anti-semitic and racial bullying to new levels on
social media.

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President Donald Trump wins: Noam Chomsky called this political moment 6 years ago
Law & Politics


Back in April 2010, Noam Chomsky offered a dark vision of America's
future that was easily dismissed. Today, as America votes Donald Trump
President-elect, it has turned out to be painfully accurate.

The philosopher, historian and activist warned of the success a
"charismatic figure" would have if one ran for office promising to
cure society's ills, and listed elements of their campaign that would
take them to power. The similarities to Trump are manifold and clear,
from military force being exalted (Trump consistently heaps praise on
the army and secret service) to the scapegoating of illegal immigrants
(Trump has vowed to eject them from the country and build a wall
between the US and Mexico).

Here's what he told TruthDig (via Fahad Alhazmi):

“The United States is extremely lucky that no honest, charismatic
figure has arisen. Every charismatic figure is such an obvious crook
that he destroys himself, like McCarthy or Nixon or the evangelist
preachers. If somebody comes along who is charismatic and honest this
country is in real trouble because of the frustration,
disillusionment, the justified anger and the absence of any coherent
response. What are people supposed to think if someone says ‘I have
got an answer, we have an enemy’? There it was the Jews. Here it will
be the illegal immigrants and the blacks. We will be told that white
males are a persecuted minority. We will be told we have to defend
ourselves and the honor of the nation. Military force will be exalted.
People will be beaten up. This could become an overwhelming force. And
if it happens it will be more dangerous than Germany. The United
States is the world power. Germany was powerful but had more powerful
antagonists. I don’t think all this is very far away. If the polls are
accurate it is not the Republicans but the right-wing Republicans, the
crazed Republicans, who will sweep the next election.”

Chomsky added that he had "never seen anything like this in my
lifetime [and] I am old enough to remember the 1930s.

"The mood of the country is frightening. The level of anger,
frustration and hatred of institutions is not organized in a
constructive way. It is going off into self-destructive fantasies.”

Trump defied the polls to win the election after sweeping a number of
swing states. At the time of writing, Democratic candidate Hillary
Clinton has acknowledged her defeat but has yet to give a concession
speech.

Conclusions

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Naom Chomsky was pre-dated by Zbigniew Brzezinski
Law & Politics


“In the technotronic society the trend would seem to be towards the
aggregation of the individual support of millions of uncoordinated
citizens, easily within the reach of magnetic and attractive
personalities exploiting the latest communications techniques to
manipulate emotions and control reason.” ― Zbigniew Brzeziński,
Between Two Ages: America's Role in the Technetronic Era

read more






Fast forwar
Law & Politics


“Two massive upsets in 2016. The unholy alliance of big business, big
banks and big politics is I believe coming to an end.”

Comic-turned-politician Beppe Grillo, co-founder of Five Star, said
that the Trump win was “incredible” in his online blog. “This is the
deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this information
system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the intellectuals, of
the journalists.” Five Star, which already runs cities including Rome
and Turin, calls for a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro
area.

read more



Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0936
Dollar Index 98.46
Japan Yen 105.44
Swiss Franc 0.9833
Pound 1.2408
Aussie 0.7680
India Rupee 66.425
South Korea Won 1150.62
Brazil Real 3.2351
Egypt Pound 17.075
South Africa Rand 13.4303

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Commodities on China's exchanges since October 1: David Ingles ‏@DavidInglesTV
Commodities


Coal +57%
Iron Ore +41%
Steel +30%
Copper +16.5%
Nickel 16%
Rubber  +14.7%
Aluminum +12.1%

read more







The president has shown himself more than willing to rule in defiance of popular opinion and to smash expressions of discontent. DR Congo
Africa


Indeed, to cling to power, Kabila will need to deploy ever more
dishonest and violent means.

Research conducted by the Congo Research Group (CRG) and the Bureau
d’Études de Recherches et de Consulting International (BERCI)
highlights the absurdity of such statements. 7,545 people were polled
throughout the DRC and, asked for whom they would vote if elections
were held this year, fewer than 8% gave Kabila as their answer. Only
15.8% of respondents nationwide were in favour of a constitutional
amendment which would allow Kabila to seek a third term and 74.3%
thought he should step down on 19 December. Blackening the gloom still
further for the ruling alliance, none of the politicians from Kabila’s
majority most commonly presented as potential successors scored higher
than 3%.

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May 2015 This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes of the event.
Africa


I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan Africa and concluded
that: We need to ask ourselves how many people can incumbent shoot
stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000, 10000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discovered in the throes
of the event.

read more


Africa


In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack), in
other words a producer of speed.’’

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Nigeria's population reached 182 million this year with more than half its people under 30 years of age
Africa


The latest estimate is based on the population of 140 million recorded
in the last census a decade ago, using an annual growth rate of 3.5
percent weighed against other variables such as rising life expectancy
and a declining infant mortality rate, Ghaji Bello, director general
of the National Population Commission, said in an interview Monday in
the capital, Abuja.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, is witnessing a growing youth
bulge, with those under 14 years accounting for more than 40 percent
of its citizens, he said. This is happening at a time when the
International Monetary Fund has forecast the West African nation’s
gross domestic product will shrink 1.7 percent this year, the first
full-year contraction in more than two decades.

Conclusions

Demographic Dividend or Terminator?

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10 NOV 14 OUAGADOUGOU'S SIGNAL TO SUB-SAHARA AFRICA
Africa


What’s clear is that a very young, very informed and very connected
African youth demographic [many characterise this as a ‘demographic
dividend’] – which for Beautiful Blaise turned into a demographic
terminator – is set to alter the existing equilibrium between the
rulers and the subjects, and a re-balancing has begun.

read more






Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd reports H116 Earnings here +17.84% 2016
Kenyan Economy


Par Value:                  5/-
Closing Price:           188.00
Total Shares Issued:          343510571.00
Market Capitalization:        64,579,987,348
EPS:             19.55
PE:                 9.616

StanChart reports H116 Earnings here

Standard Chartered Bank published their 1H16 financial results this
morning, EPS was up 32.6% y/y to KES 14.97 and PBT increased 6.49% y/y
to KES 7.0bn. Net interest margins increased y/y from 13.6% to 19.6%.
Net interest income grew 13.8% y/y to KES 10.0bn, this was mainly
attributed to increase in yields by 8.9% y/y as the loan book
decreased by 7.29% y/y to KES 114.3bn from KES 123.3bn in 1H15. The
cost to income ratio decreased to 48.4% from 54.1% the previous year,
this was on account of higher total operating income of 18.9% y/y to
KES 45.5bn, though this decreased by 42.9% ytd. The company’s foreign
exchange income increased by 48.8% y/y. Gross NPLs almost doubled to
KES 15.4bn (1.8x y/y) from KES 8.3bn, however, there was a marginal
decrease q/q. Given the results that Stan Chart has recorded in 1H16,
we expect full year results to be positive, as we do not expect a
sharp increase in loan provisions in 2H16, similar to that recorded in
2H15. Furthermore, we understand the group is actively seeking to work
out previous non-performing loans and we expect to see the benefits of
this in 2H16. The company’s Board of Directors have announced an
interim dividend per share of KES 6.00.

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22-AUG-2016 :: Standard Chartered PLC and StanChart Kenya are outliers @TheStarKenya
Kenyan Economy


Standard Chartered Plc is the parent of StanChart Kenya. It has been a
torrid period for bank stocks particularly in Europe where venerable
banks such as Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have plumbed to an all
time low. Negative interest rates have crushed spreads coupled with
higher regulatory capital requirements have made this period one of
the worst for shareholders. StanChart Plc however has been an outlier
(In Malcolm Gladwell’s book he speaks of outliers as those who operate
at the extreme outer edge of what is statistically plausible).

Standard Chartered Kenya has returned (and you have to account for a
one for 10 bonus the final dividend and the Sh6 interim dividend
announced last week) up 29.12 per cent this year that is nearly three
times better than its parent and 30 times better than the Nairobi
All-Share Index.

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -4.91% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

CBK Boss @njorogep has asked for the prosecution of Family Bank
over 1.6Bn NYS theft. Justice!  #FamilyBankHeldForNYSFraud

https://twitter.com/muneneofficial/status/796605618622758913?s=03

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -19.85% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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