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Thursday 17th of November 2016
 
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Macro Thoughts

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Dragoman @DragomanTravel Village life, Samburu, central Kenya
Africa


“...when the present stung her, she sought her antidote in the future,
which was as sure to hold achievement as the dying flower to hold the
fruit when its petals wither.”
― Elspeth Huxley, The Flame Trees of Thika

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The super moon as seen at the Meru National Park. Photo by @ray_kimm
Africa


“this was a moment of magic revealing to us all, for a few moments, a
hidden world of grace and wonder beyond the one of which our eyes told
us, a world that no words could delineate, as insubstanttial as a
cloud, as iridescent as a dragon-fly and as innocent as the heart of a
rose.”
― Elspeth Huxley, The Flame Trees of Thika:

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Special Report: Under siege in Mosul, Islamic State turns to executions and paranoia Reuters
Law & Politics


A few weeks ago, a person inside Mosul began to send text messages to
Iraqi military intelligence in Baghdad.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Islamic State, "has become
intemperate," said the early November message, written by an informant
inside the city who has contact with the group but is not a member of
it.

"He has cut down on his movements and neglects his appearance," the
message read. "He lives underground and has tunnels that stretch to
different areas. He doesn't sleep without his suicide bomber vest so
he can set it off if he's captured."

Islamic State relies on a network of child informers, the so called
ashbal al khilafa or "cubs of the caliphate."

"These young boys eavesdrop and find out information from other kids
about their fathers, brothers, and their activities", said Hisham
al-Hashemi, an Iraq government adviser and Islamic State expert. "In
every street there are one or two ashbal al khilafa who spy on the
adults."

Conclusions


Brain-washing Children

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Social Media's Globe-Shaking Power NYT
Law & Politics


With billions of people glued to Facebook, WhatsApp, WeChat,
Instagram, Twitter, Weibo and other popular services, social media has
become an increasingly powerful cultural and political force, to the
point that its effects are now beginning to alter the course of global
events.

The election of Donald J. Trump is perhaps the starkest illustration
yet that across the planet, social networks are helping to
fundamentally rewire human society. They have subsumed and gutted
mainstream media. They have undone traditional political advantages
like fund-raising and access to advertising. And they are
destabilizing and replacing old-line institutions and established ways
of doing things, including political parties, transnational
organizations and longstanding, unspoken social prohibitions against
blatant expressions of racism and xenophobia.

Most important, because these services allow people to communicate
with one another more freely, they are helping to create surprisingly
influential social organizations among once-marginalized groups. These
ad hoc social movements range widely in form, from “alt-right” white
supremacists in the United States to Brexiters in Britain to ISIS in
the Middle East to the hacker collectives of Eastern Europe and
Russia. But each in its own way is now wielding previously unthinkable
power, resulting in unpredictable, sometimes destabilizing
geopolitical spasms.

But that’s where we are. It’s time to start recognizing that social
networks actually are becoming the world-shattering forces that their
boosters long promised they would be — and to be unnerved, rather than
exhilarated, by the huge social changes they could uncork.

This should come as no surprise. In a way, we are now living through a
kind of bizarro version of the utopia that some in tech once
envisioned would be unleashed by social media.

One of those social effects is what Mr. Shirky calls the “shifting of
the Overton Window,” a term coined by the researcher Joseph P. Overton
to describe the range of subjects that the mainstream media deems
publicly acceptable to discuss.

From about the early 1980s until the very recent past, it was usually
considered unwise for politicians to court views deemed by most of
society to be out of the mainstream, things like overt calls to racial
bias (there were exceptions, of course, like the Willie Horton ad).
But the internet shifted that window.

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14-NOV-2016 :: And this is another important point, traditional media has lost its position of control.
Law & Politics


And this is another important point, traditional media has lost its
position of control. It’s been upended by the internet which allowed
insurgent politics to broadcast over the top.

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Boris Johnson's approach to Brexit has been ridiculed by European ministers after he told Italy it would have to offer tariff-free trade in order to sell its prosecco in the UK.
Law & Politics


Carlo Calenda, an Italian economics minister, said it was insulting
that Johnson had told him during a recent meeting that Italy would
grant Britain access to the EU’s single market “because you don’t want
to lose prosecco exports”.

“He basically said: ‘I don’t want free movement of people but I want
the single market,’” he told Bloomberg. “I said: ‘No way.’ He said:
‘You’ll sell less prosecco.’ I said: ‘OK, you’ll sell less fish and
chips, but I’ll sell less prosecco to one country and you’ll sell less
to 27 countries.’ Putting things on this level is a bit insulting.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0696
Dollar Index 100.30 The dollar index, which measures the greenback's
strength against a basket of major currencies, stood at 100.270 .DXY
after climbing to 100.570 overnight, its highest since April 2003.
Japan Yen 109.02
Swiss Franc 1.0013
Pound 1.2434
Aussie 0.7478
India Rupee 67.885
South Korea Won 1177.53
Brazil Real 3.4516
Egypt Pound 15.7465
South Africa Rand 14.2840

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$DXY 2003 LEVELS HIT
Law & Politics


But the rout in U.S. bond prices began to slow, with the benchmark
10-year Treasury note yield US10YT=RR pulling back to 2.197 percent in
Asian trade after touching an 11-month high above 2.3 percent earlier
in the week.

The German 10-year bund yield DE10YT=TWEB rose to a 10-month high near
0.400 percent on Monday but has since pulled back to 0.300 percent,
while British 10-year gilts GB10YT=TWEB have also edged away from
five-month highs near 1.500 percent seen earlier in the week.

Japan's 10-year yield JP10YTN=JBTC stood flat at 0.015 percent after
rising to a nine-month high of 0.035 percent on Wednesday. It was
knocked back after the BOJ offered to buy an unlimited amount of JGBs
of certain maturities in a special operation.

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Rights group urges troops for Burundi to prevent genocide
Africa


The International Federation for Human Rights, known as FIDH, and
Burundian Human Rights League ITEKA said in a report issued Tuesday
that the government's recent break with the international community
"heralds a new intensification of repression and crimes against
citizens who are considered hostile to the regime."

The report cited what it called several "dramatic actions" by
Burundi's government. They include the government's withdrawal from
the International Criminal Court, its denunciation of a U.N. human
rights report "damning of the regime," its expulsion of the African
Union and three U.N. experts, and its suspension of five Burundi
organizations defending human rights, including ITEKA.

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#Burundi President Pierre #Nkurunziza first head of state to congratulate #Trump on victory
Africa


Côte d’Ivoire : le procès de Simone Gbagbo se poursuivra sans elle
Le Monde Afrique ‏@LeMonde_Afrique

https://twitter.com/LeMonde_Afrique/status/798914867633733632

A beautiful sunset in Cape Town, South Africa - Image by Thomas
Froemmel of Microtoxic Photography

https://twitter.com/africageo/status/798828202558824448

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -1.36% 2016
Africa


Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 14.2840

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Footage emerges of “massacre” of Arbaeen marchers in Nigeria PRESS TV

https://twitter.com/PressTV/status/798824296235683840

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -10.44% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -15.96% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Barclays Bank Kenya Lags Rivals as Nine-Month Profit Contracts
Kenyan Economy


The bank partially owned by Barclays Plc’s Africa unit posted profit
of 6.06 billion shillings ($59.5 million) in the nine months through
September, compared with 6.4 billion shillings a year ago, according
to a statement e-mailed by the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The lender
set aside 3.14 billion shillings for bad credit, three times more than
the year-earlier period, as non-performing loans jumped 49 percent to
10.4 billion shillings.

Equity Group Holdings Ltd., Kenya’s largest bank by market value,
earlier this month posted a 17 percent increase in profit, while KCB
Group Ltd., the nation’s biggest lender by assets, posted a 15 percent
in income for the year-earlier period. Both companies doubled
provisions for bad debt. While the two banks saw slower loan growth,
Barclays increased customer advances by 14 percent to 158.8 billion
shillings.

Lenders in East Africa’s biggest economy have raised loan-loss
provisions this year to comply with regulations following increased
oversight by the central bank. Bad debts have also increased because
of the spill-over effects of the “expensive cost” of financing loans,
according to Cytonn Investments, a Nairobi-based investment bank. The
government in August introduced caps on commercial lending rates to
reduce the cost of credit.

Barclays shares are down 35 percent over the past year to 8.85
shillings, the second-worst performing lender after National Bank of
Kenya Ltd., which has slumped 54 percent. Equity’s stock is down 20
percent while KCB has lost almost 30 percent.

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StanChart on Wednesday said it is closing down its Nairobi shared services centre and migrating the unit's functions to Chennai, India.
Kenyan Economy


The Nairobi centre with a staff of 350 previously provided real-time
services such as accounting, reporting, systems maintenance, and
information management support to StanChart’s subsidiaries in Uganda,
Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa.

Closure of the Nairobi support unit leaves StanChart with three such
centres located in India, Malaysia and China.

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Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.89
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -3.87% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

140.06 +0.97 +0.70%

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -19.01% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

3,272.47 +10.76 +0.33%

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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Weetabix UK buys out Manji family from Kenyan unit
Kenyan Economy


Weetabix Food Company took over 50.11 per cent shareholding, with
South Africa’s Pioneer Foods Group — producers of Bokomo, Ceres,
Safari, Spekko and ProNutro among others — taking up the remaining
49.89 per cent stake.
The British cereal maker acquired Breakfast Cereal Company Limited,
owned by Manji, over five years ago for an undisclosed sum to form the
Weetabix East Africa Limited (WEA).

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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