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Satchu's Rich Wrap-Up
 
 
Monday 28th of November 2016
 
Morning
Africa

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"They are like a city in the forest," says Hemp.
Africa


It's definitely a contender. Africa’s tallest indigenous tree –
measuring a whopping 81.5 metres – has been discovered in a remote
valley on the continent’s highest mountain, Kilimanjaro.

The colossus in Tanzania has matched Africa’s previous tree-height
record established by a specimen of the introduced Sydney blue gum
(Eucalyptus saligna) in Limpopo, South Africa, which died in 2006.

Andreas Hemp at the University of Bayreuth in Germany first spotted a
bunch of tall Entandrophragma excelsum trees while exploring Mount
Kilimanjaro’s vegetation 20 years ago. But it was not until recently
that he and his team were able to measure their heights accurately
using new tools.

They sized 32 specimens with laser instruments between 2012 and 2016,
finding that the 10 tallest individuals ranged from 59.2 to 81.5
metres in height and 0.98 to 2.55 metres in diameter.

read more



Burroughs in the Bunker
Africa


“Hustlers of the world, there is one mark you cannot beat: the mark
inside.” ― William S. Burroughs

“A paranoid is someone who knows a little of what's going on. A
psychotic is a guy who's just found out what's going on.” ― William S.
Burroughs

"Desperation is raw material of drastic change Only those who can
leave behind everything they have ever believed in can hope to
escape''

read more







Law & Politics


The 32-year-old looked “exhausted but happy” alongside 5,000 exuberant
rebels who had forced Mr. Batista to flee the country.

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14-NOV-2016 " This is the deflagration of an epoch. It's the apocalypse of this information system" @Beppe_Grillo
Law & Politics


Comic-turned-politician Beppe Grillo, co-founder of Five Star, said

“ This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this
information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”

read more





Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0607
Dollar Index 101.30
Japan Yen 112.32
Swiss Franc 1.0136
Pound 1.2394
Aussie 0.7462
India Rupee 68.765
South Korea Won 1173.50
Brazil Real 3.4014
Egypt Pound 17.8545
South Africa Rand 13.90

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Will OPEC bring oil markets back to balance? Will OPEC bring oil markets back to balance? @TheStarKenya
Commodities


This week OPEC [which was once feared and could make Western Economies
quake and shake] meets in Vienna on November 30.

Who can forget the glory days of OPEC when the gnome like Sheikh
Yamani [Minister of Oil Petroleum from 1962 to 1986, and a minister in
OPEC for 25 years], prayer beads in hand, would hold the global
economy in his thrall with his every often cryptic pronouncements.

Those were the glory go-go days which were in fact repeated 2010-2014
before the big crash which has seen Riyadh, Caracas, Luanda, Abuja all
enter a tail-spin.

OPEC is seeking to bring the oil markets back into balance [the oil
markets have had an oil surplus for a number of years]. In October,
global oil production was in the order of 80 million barrels per day.

Crude oil in New York closed Friday at $46.11 a barrel giving a
cumulative oil income of $3.608 billion a day [versus $8.80 billion
per day at the price peak of around $110.00 in 2014]. These are very
big numbers indeed.

Ryszard Kapuściński wrote in The Shah of Shahs “Oil creates the
illusion of a completely changed life, life without work, life for
free. Oil is a resource that anaesthetises thought, blurs vision,
corrupts.” ― ''Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil
is above all a great temptation.

It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength, fortune, power. It is
a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts obligingly up into the air
and falls back to earth as a rustling shower of money.

To discover and possess the source of oil is to feel as if, after
wandering long underground, you have suddenly stumbled upon royal
treasure. Not only do you become rich, but you are also visited by the
mystical conviction that some higher power has looked upon you with
the eye of grace and magnanimously elevated you above others, electing
you its favorite.

Many photographs preserve the moment when the first oil spurts from
the well: people jumping for joy, falling into each other’s arms,
weeping.

Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without
work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anesthetizes thought,
blurs vision, corrupts. People from poor countries go around thinking:
God, if only we had oil!

The concept of oil expresses perfectly the eternal human dream of
wealth achieved through lucky accident, through a kiss of fortune and
not by sweat, anguish, hard work. In this sense oil is a fairy tale,
and like every fairy tale, a bit of a lie. Oil fills us with such
arrogance that we begin believing we can easily overcome such
unyielding obstacles as time.

With oil, the last Shah used to say, I will create a second America in
a generation! He never created it.

Oil, though powerful, has its defects. It does not replace thinking or wisdom''

Consider that crude oil traded above $90.00 a barrel from October 2010
all the way though to September 2014. From September 2014 it embarked
upon a precipitous drop and traded below $30.00 a barrel in early
2016. The big supply curve ball was in fact the US which pumped an
average of 9.43 million barrels per day in 2015, the highest level
since 1972 and +89% since 2008.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ramped up production in a response to try
and bust this US supply out of the system and is pumping around 10.5
million barrels per day.

Russia responded by taking its production to all time highs of around
11.5 million barrels per day. Iran is seeking to ramp up production
after rolling back the sanctions.

The post 2014 price collapse has in fact brought indiscipline because
most producers have pumped more to try to make up for the price drop.

So on November 30 OPEC will seek to curb its output to between 32.5
million and 33 million barrels a day from 33.6 million barrels a day,
in October.

Saudi Arabia is demanding that Iraq must cut and Iran must freeze
crude output. Those with a long memory will recall that Saddam Hussein
rolled into Kuwait the first time exactly because after the Iraq-Iran
war, he felt that the Kingdoms of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait deliberately
pumped like crazy [Kuwait went as far as selling Iraq notes at deep
discounts in order to shutter Iraq's ability to borrow] in order to
collapse his ability to deliver the ''butter'' part of the ''guns and
butter'' equation [to more than 1 million returning and now
demobilised soldiers].

So the current situation is a neat twist. Anyway lets return to the
main story which is in Vienna this week.

OPEC's success is dependent on disciplining its own members which is a
little like herding cats. Then they need non-OPEC [Russia, for
starters] to cap their production.

The US [where shale was apparently the primary KSA target] and Canada
are not in the conversation and will in fact ramp up

production on any uptick in prices.

“The challenge is less with OPEC and more with the outer forces we
don’t control,” Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, the Nigeria’s minister of state
for petroleum, said Thursday in an interview in Tokyo. “The U.S. is
beginning to ramp up volumes again.”

Once the set-piece is over if not before, the markets are going to
appreciate that the salad days are long gone and that these cats who
once strutted the global stage have had their best days and then we
enter the second leg of the down-turn in these economies.

Russia has shown it can withstand the pain. The Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia is going to have to make further painful adjustments and soon
stop-loss a deputy crown prince.

Other capitals from Caracas to Luanda, from Abuja to Muscat whose FX
reserves have been shredded and whose currencies are teetering on the
precipice are set to enter uncharted territory.

I do not see WTI trading above $60.00 under any circumstances through
2017. Traders can sell $60.00 strike call options with a 1 year
maturity [into a price rally] and pocket the premium.

read more




Kapuscinski on Oil Societies From Ryszard Kapuscinski's book Shah of Shahs (about the last Shah of Iran):
Commodities


The following essay on Oil always struck me as particularly insightful:

Oil kindles extraordinary emotions and hopes, since oil is above all a
great temptation. It is the temptation of ease, wealth, strength,
fortune, power. It is a filthy, foul-smelling liquid that squirts
obligingly up into the air and falls back to earth as a rustling
shower of money. To discover and possess the source of oil is to feel
as if, after wandering long underground, you have suddenly stumbled
upon royal treasure. Not only do you become rich, but you are also
visited by the mystical conviction that some higher power has looked
upon you with the eye of grace and magnanimously elevated you above
others, electing you its favorite.

Many photographs preserve the moment when the first oil spurts from
the well: people jumping for joy, falling into each other’s arms,
weeping.

Oil creates the illusion of a completely changed life, life without
work, life for free. Oil is a resource that anesthetizes thought,
blurs vision, corrupts. People from poor countries go around thinking:
God, if only we had oil! The concept of oil expresses perfectly the
eternal human dream of wealth achieved through lucky accident, through
a kiss of fortune and not by sweat, anguish, hard work. In this sense
oil is a fairy tale, and like every fairy tale, a bit of a lie. Oil
fills us with such arrogance that we begin believing we can easily
overcome such unyielding obstacles as time. With oil, the last Shah
used to say, I will create a second America in a generation! He never
created it.

Oil, though powerful, has its defects. It does not replace thinking or wisdom.

For rulers, one of its most alluring qualities is that it strengthens
authority. Oil produces great profits without putting a lot of people
to work. Oil causes few social problems because it creates neither a
numerous proletariat nor a sizable bourgeoisie. Thus the government,
freed from the need of splitting the profits with anyone, can dispose
of them according to its own ideas and desires.

Look at the ministers from oil countries, how high they hold their
heads, what a sense of power they have, they, the lords of energy, who
decide whether we will be driving cars tomorrow or walking.

And oil’s relation to the mosque? What vigor, glory, and significance
this new wealth has given to its religion, Islam, which is enjoying a
period of accelerated expansion and attracting new crowds of the
faithful.

read more




Crude Oil 5 day Chart INO 45.75
Commodities


Emerging Markets

Frontier Markets

read more





16-MAY-2016 :: Tanzania's president John Magafuli has shifted the centre of gravity for East African oil and gas, South, in one fell swoop.
Africa


In my humble opinion, Magafuli has moved with speed and precision and
pared price of brokerage charges. He’s winning. Its time for some
serious soul- searching folks.

read more


Ethiopia's crisis By RENE LEFORT Things fall apart: will the centre hold?
Africa


“Mengist yelem !” – “Authority has disappeared!”. This perception,
initially confined to the cities, is increasingly reaching into the
rural areas as they open up more and more.

“Meles left with the password”

Why this impotence and loss of credibility?

The weakening of central authority – Addis Ababa – has thus released
centrifugal – regional – forces that had been steadily stifled in
Meles Zenawi’s iron grip.

read more



May 2015 '"The revolutionary contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but in the street''
Africa


PAUL Virilio (born 1932) is a French cultural theorist and urbanist.

In his book ‘Speed and Politics’ he says: “The revolutionary
contingent attains its ideal form not in the place of production, but
in the street, where for a moment it stops being a cog in the
technical machine and itself becomes a motor (machine of attack),
becomes in other words a producer of speed.’’

As we look around the world today, we can see a battle for the
‘street’ from the streets of Bujumbura to the streets of Baltimore. In
November last year, I wrote about Ouagadougou’s signal to sub-Saharan
Africa and concluded that: We need to ask ourselves how many people
can incumbent shoot stone cold dead in such a situation – 100, 1000,
10000?

This is another point: there is a threshold beyond which the incumbent
cannot go. Where that threshold lies will be discov- ered in the
throes of the event.

Therefore, the preeminent point to note is that protests in Burkina
Faso achieved escape velocity.

read more



Suddenly the "green boys" appeared -- child supporters who herald the president's coming, chanting "Yahya, Yahya Jammeh, we love you".
Africa


Friday was the moment that supporters of Adama Barrow, the candidate
for a coalition of seven opposition parties in the December 1
presidential election, held a rolling rally along several kilometres
of road to welcome him home from campaigning in the provinces.

There is less than a week to go before Barrow faces President Yahya
Jammeh in the most significant challenge to the incumbent's power
during his four straight terms in office.

read more


As Zimbabwe's money runs out, so does Mugabe's power Reuters
Africa


In Zimbabwe, where worthless $100 trillion notes serve as reminders of
the perils of hyperinflation, President Robert Mugabe is printing a
new currency that jeopardizes not just the economy but his own long
grip on power.

Six months ago, the 92-year-old announced plans to address chronic
cash shortages by supplementing the dwindling U.S. dollars in
circulation over the past seven years with 'bond notes', a
quasi-currency expected at the end of November.

According to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), the bond notes will
be officially interchangeable 1:1 with the U.S. dollar and should ease
the cash crunch. The central bank also promised to keep a tight lid on
issuance.

After a 2008 multi-billion percent inflationary meltdown caused by
rampant money-printing, many Zimbabweans are sceptical. The plan has
already caused a run on the banks as Zimbabweans empty their accounts
of hard currency.

Internal intelligence briefings seen by Reuters raise the possibility
that the bond notes, if they crash, could spell the end of Mugabe's 36
years in charge.

A Sept. 29 Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) report revealed the
powerful army was as unhappy as the rest of the population with the
new notes and had told Africa's oldest leader to "wake up and smell
the coffee".

"Top security officers have told Mugabe not to blame them if Rome
starts to burn," the report said.

Reuters was unable to determine the author of the report. It is also
unclear if Mugabe has seen the report, whose final audience is not
specified. Mugabe's spokesman did not respond to requests for comment,
nor was the CIO available.

"Mugabe was openly told that the bond notes are going to cause his
downfall," the report said.

The notes' first test will come in the informal foreign exchange
markets on the streets of Harare.

If they fall heavily in value, they are likely to unleash an
inflationary spiral that could bleed the banking system of its last
few dollars and wipe out Zimbabweans' savings for the second time in
less than a decade, economists say.

The same happened in 2008: powerful individuals with access to dollars
at the official 1:1 rate were able to buy bond notes at a discount on
the unofficial market and then convert them back to dollars at face
value.

"You start with one dollar, then you've got 10, then you've got 100,
then you've got 1,000 – and it's not even lunchtime," said John
Robertson, one of Zimbabwe's most respected private economists.

"The banks may say 1:1, but here we say 2:1. We can't afford to pay
the same as the banks. I'm running a business, not a bank," said
Patience, a 32-year-old money-changer.

"Ecocash? No thank you. Dollars, dollars, dollars," said Patience, a
22-year-old working a Harare street corner. "No dollars, no fun."

Mugabe responded to the growing pressure on Nov. 19 with an address in
which he admitted fallibility and gave a rare hint at retirement.

"If I am making mistakes, you should tell me. I will go," he said,
before adding: "Change should come in a proper way. If I have to
retire, let me retire properly."

Conclusions

read more


25-JUL-2016 Countries like Zimbabwe feel like they are right at the Edge that Hunter S. Thompson described
Africa


"The Edge...There is no honest way to explain it because the only
people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over"

read more


Zimbabwe's central bank said on Saturday it will circulate $10 million worth of new bond notes on Monday
Africa


Zimbabwe's central bank said on Saturday it will circulate $10 million
worth of new bond notes on Monday, a quasi-currency that authorities
expect to ease a serious cash crunch, but will limit withdrawals to
curb any abuses.

read more



ANC Meeting on President Zuma's Future Extended Until Monday
Africa


Tourism Minister Derek Hanekom proposed the motion on Saturday, the
Johannesburg-based City Press newspaper reported, citing people within
the party it didn’t identify. ANC spokesman Zizi Kodwa confirmed the
extension of the weekend meeting in a statement published Sunday on
Twitter.

read more


South Africa All Share Bloomberg 0.00% 2016
Africa


South Africa get trumped. Fitch cuts outlook to negative; Affirms
rating at BBB-, one notch above junk Holger Zschaepitz

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/802165915764789248

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.90

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

3600 pairs of underwear hanging in Maboneng to represent the 3600
reported rapes that happen in South Africa daily. Retweet for
awareness Ndoda ‏@Ndoda_Mag

https://twitter.com/Ndoda_Mag/status/802492373834092544

@alykhansatchu about 14.5 would still have it cheap assuming 20pc
CPI our REER model has done better on EM than Frontier as you know
Charlie Robertson ‏@RencapMan

https://twitter.com/RencapMan/status/802837422585298944

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -11.55% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg -18.54% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

read more


Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -5.70% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -19.18% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

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by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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November 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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