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Monday 05th of December 2016
 
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Africa

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Macro Thoughts

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Sunset in the City of Nairobi. Photo by @focus_pics
Africa


*“Everything is barely weeks. Everything is days. We have minutes to live.”
― Don DeLillo, Cosmopolis*

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They deliver my father's corpse in the trunk of a '49 Mercury coupe, dew still heavy on the taillights. #SamShepard
Africa


Early morning: They deliver my father’s corpse in the trunk of a ’49
Mercury coupe, dew still heavy on the taillights. His body is wrapped up
tight in see-through plastic, head to toe. Flesh-colored rubber bands bind
it at the neck, waist, and ankles—mummy style. He’s become very small in
the course of things—maybe eight inches tall. In fact, I’m holding him now,
in the palm of my hand. I ask them for permission to unwrap his tiny head,
just to make sure he’s truly dead. They allow me to do this. They all stand
aside, hands clasped behind their tailored backs, heads bowed in a kind of
ashamed mourning, but not something you would question them on. It’s smart
to keep on their good side. Besides, they seem quite polite and stoic now.

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A Bend in @MaraFairmont River. The Hippos have returned from their nightly escapades
Africa


*“Going home at night! It wasn't often that I was on the river at night. I
never liked it. I never felt in control. In the darkness of river and
forest you could be sure only of what you could see — and even on a
moonlight night you couldn't see much. When you made a noise — dipped a
paddle in the water — you heard yourself as though you were another person.
The river and the forest were like presences, and much more powerful than
you. You felt unprotected, an intruder ... You felt the land taking you
back to something that was familiar, something you had known at some time
but had forgotten or ignored, but which was always there. You felt the land
taking you back to what was there a hundred years ago, to what had been
there always.” *
― V.S. Naipaul, A Bend in the River

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The parabolic rebound of Vladimir Putin @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


So much has happened in 2016, from the Brexit vote to President-elect
Trump, and it certainly feels like we have entered a new normal.

*One common theme is a parabolic Putin rebound. At this moment, President
Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded.*

The intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le Pen,
the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands, is
Vladimir Putin.

*In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the shots in Aleppo, and in
a quite delicious irony it looks like he has pocketed Opec as well*.

*However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.*

Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one of
his short stories:

*The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.*

He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual-paradigm officers at
Colorado Command:

*“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”*

*“We copy. There’s a voice.”*

*“We have gross oscillation here.”*

*“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure it’s
helping.”*

*“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”*

*“Thank you, Colorado.”*

“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”

“It was a voice,” I told them.

*“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will correct,
Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”*

*The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest sadness”.*

*“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”*

*I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy.*

PEOTUS Trump was an ideal candidate for this kind of support.

Trump is a linguistic warfare specialist. Look at the names he gave his
opponents: Crooked Hillary, Lyin’ Ted, Little Marco, ‘Low-energy’ Jeb —
were devastating and terminal.

*The first thing is plausible deniability (and some folks here at home need
to remember those words).*

*The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a
linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.*

*When you launch a social media campaign where a 100 bots repeat the same
thing verbatim, like Mombasa did last week, then your very linearity is a
monumental ‘’look its me’’ sign.*

*Beppe Grillo, the comic turned leader of the Five Star movement in Italy
said: This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this
information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”*

He is right, traditional media has been disrupted and the insurgents can
broadcast live and over the top.

From feeding the hot-house conspiracy frenzy on line (‘’a constant state of
destabilised perception’’), timely and judicious doses of Wikileaks leaks
which drained Hillary’s bona fides and her turn-out and motivated Trump’s,
what we have witnessed is something remarkable and noteworthy.

*Putin has proven himself an information master, and his adversaries are
his information victims.*

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After two years of presiding over a weakened Russia, Putin has his confidence back via @BV @Bershidsky
Law & Politics


In Wednesday's chess championship tiebreaker, the Russian player faced a
powerful, creative, inventive adversary. Karjakin survived the first of
four games, salvaged the second one from an almost impossible position,
exhibiting his superior, cold-blooded defensive skills -- and then lost the
next two games to a rampaging Manus Carlsen, who ended the challenger's
hopes with a brilliant, slashing move of his queen. There's no one among
today's world leaders who could do the same to Putin, and the new crop of
Western presidents and prime ministers is not likely to change that. And
though Carlsen has trained with an eminent Putin opponent, former world
champion Gary Kasparov, the Russian political opposition is not up to
Putin's level of play.

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05-OCT-2015 :: Putin is a GeoPolitical GrandMaster @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


Let us return to UNGA, where Putin set out his stall and I quote: ‘’I
cannot help asking those who have caused the situation, do you realise now
what you’ve done?’’

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14-NOV-2016 "This is the deflagration of an epoch. It's the apocalypse of this information system" @beppe_grillo @Mov5Stelle
Law & Politics


“ This is the deflagration of an epoch. It’s the apocalypse of this
information system, of the TVs, of the big newspapers, of the
intellectuals, of the journalists.”

And this is another important point, traditional media has lost its
position of control. It’s been upended by the internet which allowed
insurgent politics to broadcast over the top.

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0561
Dollar Index 101.38
Japan Yen 113.53
Swiss Franc 1.0157
Pound 1.2690
Aussie 0.7447
India Rupee 68.155
South Korea Won 1175.07
Brazil Real 3.4765
Egypt Pound 18.0360
South Africa Rand 13.8830

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Erdogan Says Turkey Faces 'Economic Sabotage' as Lira Plunges
Emerging Markets


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday said his political
enemies are trying to sabotage the economy by speculating on the stock
market, foreign exchange rate and interest rates after failing to overthrow
his administration in July.

The lira plunged to record lows over the past week even as Erdogan urged
Turks to convert their foreign currency savings into liras and gold while
vowing to keep up his fight against high interest rates.

Read more: People Power Fails to Stem Lira Rout As Erdogan Calls Turks to
Action

Erdogan is trying to verbally stem a run on the lira, which has lost more
than any other emerging market currency over the past month, damping
everything from consumer sentiment to economic growth. Since a coup was
quelled in July, Erdogan has sought popular support to shift from a
parliamentary system to an executive presidency to concentrate power in his
office.

“Someone is trying to force this country to its knees by economic sabotage
after failing to seize it with tanks, guns and F-16s on July 15,” when a
coup by a faction within the military failed, Erdogan said at the opening
of a shopping mall in Istanbul on Saturday. “This is not a new game and
we’re used to it. Especially in the last three years, they are constantly
attempting to use economic crisis as a trump card.”

Frontier Markets

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"I hereby declare Adama Barrow duly elected President of the Republic of Gambia for the next five years," Mr Njie said.
Africa


“There will be an economic boom, and people jailed can be freed, and people
exiled abroad will come back home to their families,” Aminata Jawara, a
23-year-old lab technician, told the Associated Press.

Earlier, Mr Njie said it was “very unique” for Mr Jammeh to be conceding,
more than two decades after he seized power from Gambia’s first president
in a bloodless coup.

Jeffrey Smith, a human rights activist and founding director of Vanguard
Africa, a US-based group which worked with the opposition coalition, said
that if Mr Jammeh “can be defeated at the ballot box ... then anyone can”.

“This is going to have resonance way beyond the tiny borders of Gambia,” he
said, describing the result as “a momentous occasion for the region writ
large”.

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After almost four decades in power, Angola's dos Santos will step down in 2017
Africa


After 37 years in power, president Jose Eduardo dos Santos of Angola will
step down before the country’s 2017 elections, state radio announced on
Friday (Dec. 2). Dos Santos, who is Africa’s second-longest serving leader,
assumed office in 1979 following the death of the southern African nation’s
first president, Agostinho Neto.

João Lourenco, the country’s defense minister, will take over as leader of
the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) party,
according to the AFP news agency. Lourenco will be presented at the party’s
anniversary celebration on Dec. 10.

“The president will not be a candidate and he already has a successor,”
Joao Pinto, a senior member of the party told AFP.

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Angola's state-owned oil firm to pay no dividend this year
Africa


"In 2016 it is estimated that there will not be dividends for the
shareholder, which is the state," Sonangol Chief Executive Isabel dos
Santos said at a media briefing on Thursday.

Dos Santos, the daughter of President Jose Eduardo dos Santos who has ruled
the oil-rich nation since 1979, added that the firm's gross income has
dropped to an estimated $15.3 billion, from more than $40 billion in 2013.

Sonangol's debt is estimated at $9.85 billion and the firm still needs to
find a source of finance for $1.56 billion in payments to suppliers this
year, she said.

"Sonangol has been honoring the monthly payment related to its financial
obligations to the banks," Dos Santos said.

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"People want total change. This means the EPRDF has to hold a free and fair election," he told the Financial Times in an interview.
Africa


“But they interpret that as wanting to overthrow the government by force.
They will cut your neck for saying so.”

At first glance Addis Ababa, a city of more than 3m people at the centre of
one of the continent’s fastest-growing economies, appears to be normal. But
beneath the surface it is clear that Ethiopia’s authoritarian rulers are in
a fight for survival as they combat unprecedented levels of discontent.

The regime, which is dominated by ethnic Tigrayans, who comprise only 6 per
cent of the population, admits that more than 500 people have probably been
killed since anti-government protests began 13 months ago. Two months into
what is expected to be a six-month state of emergency, 11,600 people have
been arrested.

Diplomats in Addis Ababa described the government’s response as
“superficial”. “They have failed to address the underlying grievances that
caused the protests in the first place,” one said.

“They only talk to themselves and their echo-chamber is very loud but it’s
soundproofed on the outside so they only hear their own propaganda,” said
the diplomat.

Analysts say the regime’s development model, the foundation of its
legitimacy, is becoming an increasingly large Achilles heel. It is founded
on copying nations such as South Korea, Singapore and China, which
prioritised state-led development over democracy and until last year it
proved extremely successful.

Grand infrastructure projects, such as dams and industrial parks, combined
with political stability attracted droves of investors, particularly from
China. Foreign direct investment rose from $78m in 2008 to an expected
$2.5bn this year.

But as Zemedeneh Negatu, a prominent Ethiopian business leader said: “These
big economic bets they want to make take time to pay off . . . and the
space [available] to allow these bets to deliver is much shorter than the
environment the Asian tigers operated in the 1960s and ’70s.”

“Furthermore, the advent of new technologies has elevated the public’s
expectations of the timing and the quality of the deliverables.”

“Even if they bring gold and diamonds, people have given up on this
government,” said a student activist, too afraid to give his name. “They
will do whatever it takes to see change. The only question is how long it
will take. Maybe five years, we hope only one.”

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17-OCT-2016 :: Ethiopia's Reputation Shattered by Political Tensions @TheStarKenya
Africa

Ethiopia has always loomed large in my imagination from the time at prep school when my Ethiopian friend Ezana Haile, could not go home and came to spend the vacation with us in Mombasa. I recall reading The Emperor by Ryszard Kapuściński and in that book Kapuściński recounts the tale of Lulu, Haile Selassie’s lap dog that was allowed to piss on the shoes of dignitaries, and the courtier whose job for 10 years was to wipe those shoes clean with a satin cloth. at book also speaks to how the cushion bearer [ e Emperor was very short and therefore had to perched on cushions so as not to be beneath his subjects] became an all-powerful figure at the Imperial Court. Kapuściński was subsequently trashed for his poetic licence in his reportage but I accept his mea culpa: *“You don’t understand a thing. I’m not writing so the details add up – the point is the essence of the matter.”*

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S&P holds South Africa's rating at BBB-, downgrades local debt
Africa


AFRICAN MARKETS ‏ @African_Markets

https://twitter.com/African_Markets/status/805459987799609344

South Africa All Share Bloomberg -2.84% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JALSH:IND

USD/ZAR 1Y Chart: GT Private Broking ‏@GTPB_ZA 13.8830

https://twitter.com/GTPB_ZA/status/805645290132881412

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 18.0360

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -21.84% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGSECI:IND

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Ahmednasir, Abdikadir & Co. Advocates, acting for depositors of Imperial Bank, has also threatened to bring a class action suit against the Central Bank and the governor.
Africa


* “We know that these people, driven by the cartels, are planning an
avalanche of legal suits and measures against the bank and the governor. We
will respond to these suits according to the law,” the source said*, adding
that the cartels had been frustrated with the cleaning up of the sector and
had resorted to “legal mercenary” tactics to frustrate the CBK and
intimidate the governor.

A person familiar with the matter suggested that ongoing criminal
investigations against two individuals at Chase Bank had reached a crucial
stage and the individuals were running scared.

The latest claims against the governor could also have been triggered by a
case filed by Imperial Bank, CBK and KDIC against the directors of Imperial
Bank, which has reportedly sent shockwaves in the entire industry.

In the case, filed on September 30 through Murgor & Murgor Advocates and
Amolo and Gacoka Advocates, Imperial Bank, CBK and KDIC are demanding from
the directors $449 million, which they say was the amount lost or defrauded
while they were directors of the collapsed lender.

The amount includes a claim made against the shareholders for irregularly
paying themselves $27 million as dividends when the bank wasn’t making any
profit, and a further $20 million claimed from the directors for recklessly
lending to firms.

read more


The first thing is plausible deniability (and some folks here at home need to remember those words).
Kenyan Economy


The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a
linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.

When you launch a social media campaign where a 100 bots repeat the same
thing verbatim, like Mombasa did last week, then your very linearity is a
monumental ‘’look its me’’ sign.

read more


16-NOV-2016 Therefore, the first point to note is that launching a real-time linguistic warfare campaign on the governor is inimical to the national interest.
Kenyan Economy


Therefore, the first point to note is that launching a real-time linguistic
warfare campaign on the governor and the Central Bank at this juncture is
inaccurate, unfair, and in fact inimical to the national interest.

read more




 
 
N.S.E Today


Prime Minister Matteo Renzi offered up his resignation after being
roundly beaten at the Referendum.
Calling Referendums is currently a Mug's Game.
The Euro sank to a 15 month low against the Dollar just above 1.05
before rallying and trading last at 1.0705+
Brent Crude Oil topped $55 for first time in 16 months as positive
spill-over post the OPEC deal ran it higher.
The News from the Gambia where  Adama Barrow unseated Mr Jammeh who
had been in power for 22 Years was a big deal.
Jeffrey Smith, a human rights activist and founding director of
Vanguard Africa, a US-based group which worked with the opposition
coalition, said that if Mr Jammeh “can be defeated at the ballot box
... then anyone can”.
“This is going to have resonance way beyond the tiny borders of
Gambia,” he said, describing the result as “a momentous occasion for
the region writ large”.
Year to Date in $ Terms, Namibia leads with a 34.15% return in 2016,
2nd is Zimbabwe +21.58% and 3rd Morocco +17.86%
The Securities Exchange traded 404.495m worth of Turnover.



N.S.E Equities - Commercial & Services


Safaricom eased back -0.25% to close at 19.90 and traded 4.018m
shares. Safaricom has paused to catch its breath at +30.92% in 2016
but could resume its price advance, momentarily.



N.S.E Equities - Finance & Investment


The Central Bank of Kenya released the Credit Officer Survey for 3Q16.
The survey reports total loans to total assets decreased by 1.99% q/q
to 59.17%. The aggregate balance sheet increased by 2.91% q/q to KES
3.78trn. Gross loans increased by 0.44% q/q to KES 2.28trn. The
Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio increased to 9.1% from 8.4% in 2Q16,
mainly attributed to cash flow challenges faced by borrowers due to
the poor business environment over the period. via Kestrel Research.

Equity Group closed unchanged at 30.00 and traded 2.073m shares.
Equity is -20.00% in 2016 in line with a Banking Sector that has seen
only 1 Bank [Lamin Manjang's StanChart] post a positive return in
2016.
There were 5 Buyers for every Seller for StanChart and it closed
unchanged at 190.00 with just 3,800 shares traded. The Offer Side is
thin and we could pop over 200.00 in short order. StanChart is
+18.974% in 2016. Total Deposits at the Q3 16 Reporting point were
just shy of 200b.
Stanbic Holdings closed unchanged at 69.50 and traded 462,700 shares.
Stanbic is -7.066% through 2016.
Barclays Bank firmed +0.55% to close at 9.20 and traded 206,100
shares. Barclays Bank has rebounded +12.195% over the last 4 weeks and
on a Trailing PE of 5.93, its difficult to see this going lower. In
fact, I heard a positive story last week from the Barclays Africa
Deputy CEO Peter Maltare and the Barclays Kenya CEO Jeremy Awori.
Barclays has room to the upside and expectations normalise from a
disequilibrium.

The Nairobi Securities Exchange which had slumped -47.07% in 2016
through this morning rebounded +4.96% to close at 13.75 on small lot
trading. The NSE has retreated sharply and has been correlated with
sharply reduced trading volumes in 2016.



N.S.E Equities - Industrial & Allied


EABL ticked +0.41% higher to close at 245.00 and traded 822,400 shares
worth 201.488m which was 49.81% of the total volume traded at the
Exchange today. EABL is -5.86% in 2016 on a Total return Basis and is
oversold at these levels. EABL reported a FY16 PAT acceleration of
+7.258%.



by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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