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Tuesday 06th of December 2016
 
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Macro Thoughts

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The world facing the "first lost decade since the 1860s," the BOE governor said
Africa


Describing the world as facing the “first lost decade since the
1860s,” the BOE governor said public support for open markets is under
threat and rejecting them would be a “tragedy, but is a possibility.”

Home Thoughts

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China flew nuclear-capable bombers around Taiwan before Trump call with Taiwanese president @FoxNews
Law & Politics


Less than a week before President-elect Donald Trump spoke with
Taiwan’s president over the phone, China flew a pair of long-range
nuclear-capable bombers around Taiwan for the first time, two U.S.
officials revealed to Fox News.

On Nov. 26, two Chinese Xian H-6 bombers, along with two escort
planes, a Tupolev Tu-154 and Shaanxi Y-8, flew around the island of
Taiwan from mainland China, taking off and landing from two separate
Chinese military bases.

The escort jets were used to collect radar information and conduct
other surveillance on American allies such as Japan, Fox News is told.
The Chinese bombers stayed in international airspace, according to
officials.

read more


Donald Trump's Message Sparks Anger in China WSJ
Law & Politics


Chinese officials late Friday and early Saturday played down Mr.
Trump’s precedent-breaking phone call with Taiwan President Tsai
Ing-wen, which a transition official said had been arranged by Bob
Dole, the former Republican senator and presidential nominee. The call
went beyond pleasantries and included a discussion about China and
stability in the Asia-Pacific, according to a person familiar with the
call. The Chinese directed their ire at Taiwan and not at Mr. Trump.

But they signaled their displeasure with a series of Twitter posts Mr.
Trump leveled at China over the weekend, as he criticized its currency
policies and military presence in the South China Sea.

The Chinese also were seeking guidance on Mr. Trump’s policy
intentions, and White House officials said they didn’t know what they
are, the administration official said.

“What you have seen in the past eight years is possibly too much
predictability” from the U.S. in its approach to China, said
Christopher Johnson, a former senior China analyst at the Central
Intelligence Agency. “A little unpredictability is a good thing, but
too much is scary. There’s a fine line there between good
unpredictability and scary, and that’s the balance that has to be
found.”

His approach in recent days “could force the Chinese to feel they have
to respond,” said Michael Auslin, a resident scholar in Asian Studies
at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Auslin said China could
decide to take any number of steps, including putting “another 1,000
missiles across the [Taiwan] strait.” It also could signal that it
will back away from recent United Nations sanctions against North
Korea, or launch a round of cyberattacks against U.S. agencies.

Conclusions


I think Trump is going to be a lot more adversarial towards China and
in part the Putin Out-Reach is part of the China triangulation.

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"It is the same--whether Allah blesses us with consolidation or we move into the bare, open desert, displaced and pursued."
Law & Politics


Adnani, a thirty-nine-year-old Syrian, ran the organization’s
propaganda shop and a secret foreign-operations unit that recruited,
trained, and assigned élite forces to the toughest missions. He
orchestrated the terror attacks at the Bataclan theatre, in Paris,
last year, and at the Brussels airport, in March. By this summer,
though, he was on the run, hiding for months in an apartment building
with hundreds of civilians in Raqqa, a city in northern Syria that
dates to antiquity and serves as the Islamic State’s capital. The
United States had picked up his trail, but had to use “tactical
patience,” a senior Pentagon official told me, to avoid heavy
collateral damage. “He just didn’t budge,” a senior U.S. official
added. “We waited.”

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The parabolic rebound of Vladimir Putin @TheStarKenya
Law & Politics


One common theme is a parabolic Putin rebound. At this moment,
President Putin has Fortress Europe surrounded.

The intellectual father of the new Zeitgeist that propelled Brexit, Le
Pen, the Five Star movement in Italy, Gert Wilders in the Netherlands,
is Vladimir Putin.

In the Middle East, it is Putin who is calling the shots in Aleppo,
and in a quite delicious irony it looks like he has pocketed Opec as
well.

However, my starting point is the election of President Donald Trump
because hindsight will surely show that Russia ran a seriously
sophisticated programme of interference, mostly digital.

Don DeLillo, who is a prophetic 21st writer, writes as follows in one
of his short stories:

The specialist is monitoring data on his mission console when a voice
breaks in, “a voice that carried with it a strange and unspecifiable
poignancy”.

He checks in with his flight-dynamics and conceptual-paradigm officers
at Colorado Command:

“We have a deviate, Tomahawk.”

“We copy. There’s a voice.”

“We have gross oscillation here.”

“There’s some interference. I have gone redundant but I’m not sure
it’s helping.”

“We are clearing an outframe to locate source.”

“Thank you, Colorado.”

“It is probably just selective noise. You are negative red on the
step-function quad.”

“It was a voice,” I told them.

“We have just received an affirm on selective noise... We will
correct, Tomahawk. In the meantime, advise you to stay redundant.”

The voice, in contrast to Colorado’s metallic pidgin, is a melange of
repartee, laughter, and song, with a “quality of purest, sweetest
sadness”.

“Somehow we are picking up signals from radio programmes of 40, 50, 60
years ago.”

I have no doubt that Putin ran a seriously 21st predominantly digital
programme of interference which amplified the Trump candidacy.

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25-AUG-2014 The signal announcing this new arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of #MH370
Law & Politics


Picking up the signal through the noise of our world in 2014 is no
easy thing. In fact, my view is the new normal is a very arrhythmic
world. When I plugged ‘’arrhythmia’’ into my computer, it threw up
this;

‘’For years he’d been studying the phenomenon of chaos, of which an
arrhythmic heartbeat was a perfect example’’

His excellency Johan Borgstam told me the signal announcing this new
arrhythmic normal was the disappearance of the MH370. Since then
planes have been falling out of the sky like flies. And the
uncertainty around MH370 and MH17 which is sharpened by the way the
story is seemingly turned on and off took me back to Don Delillo

‘’”We are not witnessing the flow of information so much as pure
spectacle, or information made sacred, ritually unreadable. The small
monitors of the office, home and car become a kind of idolatry here,
where crowds might gather in astonishment.’’

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Currency Markets at a Glance WSJ
World Currencies


Euro 1.0757
Dollar Index 100.14
Japan Yen 113.74
Swiss Franc 1.0072
Pound 1.2743
Aussie 0.7461
India Rupee 68.085
South Korea Won 1171.52
Brazil Real 3.4214
Egypt Pound 17.9476
South Africa Rand 13.7773

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Citi Makes a Clarion Call for Commodity Bulls With 2017 View
Commodities


The Bloomberg Commodity Index has advanced 11 percent in 2016 after a
five-year losing run that was spurred by a slowdown in China’s growth
and gluts in everything from copper to crude oil. This year, advances
in raw materials have been led by zinc, nickel, copper, Brent crude
and sugar.

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Grand 2009 Louis Roederer Cristal Champagne
Commodities


Cristal is a tête de cuvée (aka prestige cuvée), created in 1876 for
Russian Czar Alexander II. Much, much later it became a favorite fizz
of rappers. Most Champagne houses, from grandes marques such as Moët
to grower-producers like Jacques Selosse, make at least one of these
luxury cuvées. You spot them by their stratospheric prices, starting
at about $150 and going into the thousands.

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Aromas of wild strawberries exotic smokiness spicy and full-bodied with notes of pomegranate
Commodities


Copper for delivery in three months rose 3.3 percent to $5,950 a
metric ton ($2.70 a pound) at 5:51 pm. on the London Metal Exchange.
That’s the highest since June 2015. The metal is up 26 percent this
year.

read more



40 years of total control: how Dos Santos shaped Angola. @AFP focus
Africa


Angolans endured a bloody civil war and extreme poverty as for nearly
40 years power rested solely in the hands of autocratic President Jose
Eduardo dos Santos.

State radio's announcement on Friday that he will stand down next year
appears to be the beginning of the end of one of Africa's longest
reigns, and could open a new chapter for a country largely closed off
to the outside world.

When Dos Santos, now 74, became president in 1979, war was already
raging between the MPLA government and UNITA rebels, four years after
independence from Portugal.

Today, Angola has been at peace only since 2002, and is still deeply
scarred by a conflict that became a vicious proxy battleground in the
Cold War rivalry of the United States and the Soviet Union.

After fighting eventually ceased, a frenetic oil boom saw skyscrapers
sprout up in the centre of the capital Luanda and paid for nationwide
infrastructure improvements.

But it left millions of ordinary Angolans living in dire slums, and
the collapse in oil prices has triggered a full-scale national
economic crisis since 2013.

"In some ways he is the father figure of the nation, widely seen --
rightly or wrongly -- as the man who ended the war," Soren Kirk
Jensen, an Angola specialist at the London-based Chatham House think
tank, told AFP.

"It wasn't a negotiated peace, it was brutal, but it is hard to see
there was any other way.

"There is growing discontent among the educated middle class, who see
him as an autocrat, and as a failure due to the economy.

"But in large parts of Angola and especially rural areas, a generation
that suffered during the war still view him in a positive light.

"That is his powerful legacy -- very long and very mixed."

Marques himself felt the sharp edge of the regime's intolerance,
standing trial twice on defamation charges and given suspended
sentences.

"Dos Santos didn't lead his country out of war -- he was a warmonger
who ruined his country and ransacked it for his family's profit,"
Marques said, speaking from Luanda.

"He has now run out of money to maintain his patronage system, so he
became far more vulnerable to pressure by his party (to stand down).

"After 37 years of power, and after all the oil money, all you see in
Angola is a few flash buildings, the misery of the people, corruption,
repression and no freedom of expression.

"The most positive thing to happen would be to bring him to justice,
but his departure won't mean the end of the regime."

read more



Gambia court frees prominent lawyer, 18 others jailed for protest
Africa


A Gambian court freed a prominent lawyer and 18 other political
prisoners on bail on Monday pending an appeal of their jail term for
"unlawful assembly", in a sign that President Yahya Jammeh's shock
election defeat last week could end years of repression.

A Reuters witness was present for the decision to release Ousainou
Darboe along with other senior members of the United Democratic Party
(UDP), who had been jailed for three years in July for taking part in
a small protest near the capital Banjul.

Darboe appeared thin in a long blue robe but grinned broadly as he
hugged family members and friends in the courtroom. He was greeted by
cheers and cries of "A new Gambia!" as riot police attempted to
control a large crowd of supporters outside.

Separately, 14 other political prisoners and Darboe supporters
detained in May appeared before Gambia's High Court on Monday but the
judge delayed a decision on their bail.

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South Africa All Share Bloomberg -1.93% 2016
Africa


49,713.56 +457.46 +0.93%

Dollar versus Rand 6 Month Chart INO 13.7773

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDZAR&v=d6&t=c&a=50&w=1

Egypt Pound versus The Dollar 3 Month Chart INO 17.9476

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_USDEGP&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1

Nigeria All Share Bloomberg -10.12% 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NGSEINDX:IND

read more


President John Mahama seeks second term in Dec. 7 vote
Africa


After expanding at the fastest pace in Africa at 14 percent with the
start of oil exports in 2011, the economy is projected to grow 3.3
percent this year, the slowest in two decades. Critics from
evangelical preachers to pop stars have lambasted Mahama’s failure to
solve a crippling energy crisis that resulted in routine 24-hour power
cuts.

read more



SFO Probes Israeli Billionaire, Ex-ENRC Directors Over Congo
Africa


The U.K. Serious Fraud Office is investigating Israeli billionaire Dan
Gertler and four former Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. executives as
part of its three-year probe into the Kazakh company’s acquisition of
copper and cobalt mining projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The SFO asked the Congolese authorities to provide banking and
business records relating to four Congo-registered companies in its
investigation into ENRC and nine individuals. They include ex-Chief
Executive Officer Felix Vulis; the former head of its Africa unit,
Victor Hanna; two other ENRC executives; Gertler and two of his
associates, according to a letter from the SFO to the Congolese
government. The letter was shown to Bloomberg by a person who asked
not to be identified because it hasn’t been released publicly.

The SFO’s investigation relates to three sets of transactions through
which ENRC, then listed on the London Stock Exchange, acquired five
mining projects in Congo between 2010 and 2012. The deals may have
violated U.K. laws including the 2010 Bribery Act and the 2006 Fraud
Act, for which individual offenses carry penalties of as long as 10
years in prison or an unlimited fine, the anti-fraud agency said in
the Sept. 2 letter. It was signed by SFO Director David Green.

ENRC’s 2010 and 2012 purchase of the Kolwezi Tailings, Lonshi and
Frontier projects. $40 million in cash was withdrawn from an
ENRC-controlled bank account in Congo in six transactions between
October 2010 and February 2011 after the company’s acquisition, from
Gertler, of a stake in the Kolwezi Tailings project in August 2010,
the SFO said. The explanations offered by ENRC to justify six cash
withdrawals were conflicting and documentation provided by the company
was either produced after the withdrawals were made or are believed to
be false, the SFO said in the letter. Separately, the SFO said that in
2012, offshore structures were intentionally used to hide beneficial
ownership during ENRC’s purchase of Lonshi and Frontier, which may
have involved acts of corruption.

read more


Urban governance key to quality of life Mail and Guardian
Africa


Africa’s urban population is the fastest growing globally. In less
than 20 years from now every second person in Africa is likely to live
in a town or a city. This will total about 926-million people, or
438-million more than today; the equivalent of adding the current
combined populations of Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt and Tanzania.

By 2030, six of the world’s 41 megacities will be in Africa. The
existing trio of Cairo, Lagos and Kinshasa will be joined by
Johannesburg, Luanda and Dar es Salaam. Africa’s megacities absorb a
significant share of national populations. They are key drivers of
their countries’ economic performance and connect Africa to the global
economy.

A new African Futures paper forecasts that in 2030, Lagos, Cairo and
Kinshasa will each have to cater for over 20-million people, while
Luanda, Dar es Salaam and Johannesburg will have crossed the
10-million mark. By 2035, close to 30-million people could live in
Lagos, turning Nigeria’s commercial hub into the largest megacity on
the continent. At the same time, more than a third of Africa’s urban
population is expected to live in West Africa.

read more



Who wants Kenya's Central Bank Governor out? Why? @The_EastAfrican Dec 2 @CBKKenya @NjorogeP
Kenyan Economy


A complaint to the ethics and anti-corruption agency last week,
calling for investigation of Central Bank of Kenya Governor Patrick
Njoroge over alleged abuse of office, is the latest move in what is
seen as a campaign to kick him out of office.

The complaint, filed by a law firm owned by Ahmednasir Abdullahi,
acting for his Nairobi Law Monthly publication, raises questions about
decisions the governor took on Imperial, Dubai and Chase banks, which
had been placed under receivership.

Mr Abdullahi’s firm, Ahmednasir, Abdikadir & Co. Advocates, acting for
depositors of Imperial Bank, has also threatened to bring a class
action suit against the Central Bank and the governor.

In a November 9 letter to CBK, announcing the intention to bring a
class action, Mr Abdullahi accuses Dr Njoroge of holding
“extra-statutory” power from a political power grid he is connected
to, while specifically targeting certain banks owned by minority
communities in the country.

“It is quite obvious that Dr Njoroge’s extra-statutory powers explains
his utter contempt of the law and the ‘bull in a china shop’
management style he so impulsively exhibits as his guiding principle
in the mismanaging the banking sector,” his letter to CBK reads.

A source at CBK told The EastAfrican the bank was aware of this legal
intent by some of the depositors and was currently preparing its legal
team to respond to the suit, once it has been filed.

“We know that these people, driven by the cartels, are planning an
avalanche of legal suits and measures against the bank and the
governor. We will respond to these suits according to the law,” the
source said, adding that the cartels had been frustrated with the
cleaning up of the sector and had resorted to “legal mercenary”
tactics to frustrate the CBK and intimidate the governor.

A person familiar with the matter suggested that ongoing criminal
investigations against two individuals at Chase Bank had reached a
crucial stage and the individuals were running scared.

The latest claims against the governor could also have been triggered
by a case filed by Imperial Bank, CBK and KDIC against the directors
of Imperial Bank, which has reportedly sent shockwaves in the entire
industry.

In the case, filed on September 30 through Murgor & Murgor Advocates
and Amolo and Gacoka Advocates, Imperial Bank, CBK and KDIC are
demanding from the directors $449 million, which they say was the
amount lost or defrauded while they were directors of the collapsed
lender.

The amount includes a claim made against the shareholders for
irregularly paying themselves $27 million as dividends when the bank
wasn’t making any profit, and a further $20 million claimed from the
directors for recklessly lending to firms.

Outside legal circles, The EastAfrican has seen communication about
intentions to target Dr Njoroge for removal from office.

“The problem we have here is that the governor is incorruptible with
money. He has no known investments or business interests where he can
seek favours. He doesn’t value business from our investments
perspective and his only corrupt nature is his ego. Yes, we know he
enjoys a security of tenure but we also know the legal loopholes to
use to have him out,” a source with interest in the banking sector
told The EastAfrican.

People we spoke to in the industry told us of a well-organised and
powerful network that is targeting Dr Njoroge because of his resolve
to clean up the sector.

It is understood that people associated with the three banks have
attempted to rope in politicians and high-ranking government officials
in their effort to have their way in the industry.

“They have engaged public relations experts who are controlling the
social media in this onslaught. Fortunately, Dr Njoroge is a man who
minds his business, doesn’t socialise and so it doesn’t concern him as
much as it would to those people who want to be socially accepted,”
said one person.

The complaint raises questions about decisions the governor took on
Imperial, Dubai and Chase banks, which had been placed under
receivership, noting that these decisions were taken in the absence of
the board, raising a possibility of constitutional and legal
challenges over these decisions.

“For the past 18 months, CBK didn’t have a properly constituted board
as required by the Central Bank of Kenya Act, which under section 10
of the CBK Act authorises only the board to formulate and owns the
policy directions of the bank. Notwithstanding the lack of a lawfully
constituted board of directors, the governor has been running a
one-man show and has created liability for the bank without due
supervision as required by law. Dr Njoroge’s actions and omissions are
a blatant case of abuse of office,” NLM letter reads in part.

read more



05-DEC-2016 The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way
Kenyan Economy


The second thing is non-linearity, you have to learn how to navigate a
linear system (the new 21st digital ecosystem) in a non-linear way.
When you launch a social media campaign where a 100 bots repeat the
same thing verbatim, like Mombasa did last week, then your very
linearity is a monumental ‘’look its me’’ sign.

read more


16-NOV-2016 :: Dr Patrick Njoroge, who is the governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, is a Roman Catholic and a numeracy member of Opus Dei.
Kenyan Economy


Dr Patrick Njoroge, who is the governor of the Central Bank of Kenya,
is a Roman Catholic and a numeracy member of Opus Dei. Dr Njoroge’s
credentials are impeccable, and the way he conducts his personal life
should surely be a lodestar for the public service here in Kenya and
the African continent. Therefore, the first point to note is that
launching a real-time linguistic warfare campaign on the governor and
the Central Bank at this juncture is inaccurate, unfair, and in fact
inimical to the national interest.  The governor is determined to
bring the banking sector under control. What is clear is that the
panoply of state institutions have been slow to engage at the same
speed.

read more







Kenya Shilling versus The Dollar Live ForexPros 101.90
Kenyan Economy


Nairobi All Share Bloomberg -6.60% 2016

http://www.BLOOMBERG.COM/quote/NSEASI:IND

Nairobi ^NSE20 Bloomberg -20.06% 2016

http://j.mp/ajuMHJ

Every Listed Share can be interrogated here

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/nsestocks.php

read more



 
 
by Aly Khan Satchu (www.rich.co.ke)
 
 
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December 2016
 
 
 
 
 
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